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CBO April 2018 Update #180
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@andersonfrailey wrote:
CBO upgraded both their actual and potential NGDP level path so some of this could be feedback into receipts. |
@andersonfrailey said:
Then @evtedeschi3 said:
Yes, this is exactly correct. More real growth and/or higher inflation cause higher nominal GDP, and therefore, higher nominal incomes than in the earlier CBO projection. Higher nominal incomes imply higher tax revenue than implied by the earlier CBO projection. |
@andersonfrailey, Shouldn't taxdata pull request #180 wait until you can generate new values for the When #145 is resolved, you will be able to generate a new |
@martinholmer asked:
Not entirely. The Fortran code in #145 will only create an MPS file, which can then be run by the MINOS linear programming model, which I don't have access to. But, now that I have all of the components that are using to create the CPS weights file I can rewrite everything in Python or Julia and will be able to generate a new |
@andersonfrailey, Can we wait on merging PR #180 until all the recent and pending changes to PUF and CPS data are incorporated into the next (0.20.2) release of Tax-Calculator. Then we can update the CBO projection and release another Tax-Calculator version (0.20.3) that has only those changes. Does this make sense? |
@martinholmer, yes I can wait to merge this. |
@andersonfrailey said about taxdata PR #180:
Thanks. Let me make sure that even after you update PR #180 so it can be merged that the |
@martinholmer correct. The latest CBO update begins in 2016 so the only changes we see should be from 2016 to 2027 and then we'll also be able to add 2028 projections. |
@andersonfrailey said:
But then why is there a change in the 2015 value of ABENEFITS in the |
@martinholmer that might've been a mistake on my end. I'll look into it as I update this PR. |
I'm planning on passing this task to our new intern. Since this PR was originally opened SOI has also released new estimates. Does anyone have strong feelings about updating the CBO projections and SOI estimates in the same PR? I know we typically try and perform updates incrementally, but I believe that because these go hand-in-hand updating them together would be ok. Also now that we can create our own weights for the CPS we can extend our extrapolations to 2028. |
@andersonfrailey said:
Combining the use of the two new projections (CBO's and SOI's) into one pull request seems reasonable. |
@martinholmer I was thinking it would be easier if she just worked on a new PR and use this one as a reference. |
@andersonfrailey said:
Sounds sensible. |
@andersonfrailey, Is PR #180 obsolete now that PR #289 has been merged? |
@martinholmer yes, closing. |
This PR updates our CBO baselines to the April 2018 CBO release.
We tend to see much higher liabilities than we previously were. This holds both under the new tax law and pre-TCJA law. Some analysis can be seen in this notebook.
The increase in tax liability seems odd to me given the increased deficits CBO has projected. I'd love to hear other's thoughts on this.
cc @martinholmer @MattHJensen @Amy-Xu