Revision timber demand and production + option for WDPA reversal

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -20,6 +20,9 @@ The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/).
 - **60_bioenergy** renamed `s60_bioenergy_gj_price_1st` to `s60_bioenergy_1st_price` and `s60_bioenergy_price_2nd` to `s60_bioenergy_2nd_price` 
 - **default.cfg** default for `s60_bioenergy_1st_subsidy` (formerly `c60_bioenergy_subsidy`) changed from 246 USD17MER per ton to 6.5 USD17MER per GJ based on mean GJ per ton of 1st generation bioenergy products.
 - **default.cfg** default for `cfg$gms$bioenergy` change from `1stgen_priced_dec18` to `1st2ndgen_priced_feb24`
+- **73_timber** revised timber demand calculations 
+- **32_forestry** revised plantation establishment assumptions
+- **35_natveg** revised wood harvest assumptions
 
 ### added
 - **scripts** output script for testing elastic demand
@@ -28,6 +31,7 @@ The format is based on [Keep a Changelog](https://keepachangelog.com/en/1.0.0/).
 - **scenario_config.csv** added scenario `VLLO` based on `SDP-MC`
 - **default.cfg** added selection of low and middle-income countries `isoCountriesLowMiddleIncome`
 - **scripts** start script for ScenarioMIP MAgPIE standalone runs
+- **22_land_conservation** added option for base protection reversal 
 
 ### removed
 - **modules/15_food/anthropometrics_jan18** removed as outdated

config/default.cfg

@@ -642,8 +642,7 @@ cfg$gms$s21_trade_tariff_startyear <- 2025
 cfg$gms$s21_trade_tariff_targetyear <- 2050
 
 # * Minimum trade margin for forestry products (USD17MER per tDM)
-# * (inflated from default originally in USD05 using USD05 --> USD17 inflation rate:1.23)
-cfg$gms$s21_min_trade_margin_forestry <- 62   # def = 50 * 1.23
+cfg$gms$s21_min_trade_margin_forestry <- 120   # def = 120
 
 
 # ***---------------------    22_land_conservation    --------------------------------------
@@ -661,6 +660,8 @@ cfg$gms$land_conservation  <- "area_based_apr22"           # def = area_based_ap
 cfg$gms$c22_base_protect <- "WDPA"              # def = WDPA
 cfg$gms$c22_base_protect_noselect <- "WDPA"     # def = WDPA
 
+cfg$gms$s22_base_protect_reversal <- Inf   # def = Inf
+
 # * Additional land conservation target based on conservation priority areas
 # * during future time steps (after `cfg$gms$sm_fix_SSP2`).
 # * ("none")              No additional land conservation target (Baseline only)

config/scenario_config.csv

@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ gms$s15_exo_alcohol;;;;;;;;;1;0;1;1;1;;;;;;;;;;;;;1;1;;;;;;;;;
 gms$s15_alc_scen;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;0.014;0;;;;;;;;;
 gms$c21_trade_liberalization;;;;l908080r807070;l909090r808080;l909595r809090;l908080r807070;l908080r807070;l908080r807070;l908080r807070;l909595r809090;l908080r807070;l908080r807070;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
 gms$c22_protect_scenario;;;;none;none;none;none;none;BH;none;BH_IFL;BH;BH;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
+gms$s22_base_protect_reversal;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Inf;Inf;2030;Inf;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
 gms$s29_snv_shr;;;;0;0;0;0;0;0;0;0;0.2;0.2;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
 gms$s29_snv_scenario_target;;;;;;;;;;;;2050;2070;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
 gms$s29_treecover_plantation;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;0;1;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

modules/22_land_conservation/area_based_apr22/input.gms

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ scalars
 s22_restore_land  If land restoration is allowed (0=no 1=yes) / 1 /
 s22_conservation_start    Land conservation start year        / 2025 /
 s22_conservation_target   Land conservation target year       / 2050 /
+s22_base_protect_reversal Year in which base protection reversal should take place (1) / Inf /
 ;
 
 * Set-switch for countries affected by regional land conservation policy

modules/22_land_conservation/area_based_apr22/presolve.gms

@@ -116,4 +116,8 @@ pm_land_conservation(t,j,land,"restore") = 0;
 
 );
 
+if (m_year(t) >= s22_base_protect_reversal,
+  pm_land_conservation(t,j,land,consv_type) = 0;
+);
+
 

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/declarations.gms

@@ -56,6 +56,7 @@ parameters
  p32_demand_forestry_future(t,i,kforestry)          Future forestry demand in current time step (tDM per yr)
  p32_est_cost(type32)                               Establishment cost (USD17MER per ha)
  i32_recurring_cost(type32)                         Recurring costs (USD17MER per ha)
+ p32_plantedforest(i)                               Planted forest (mio. ha)
 ;
 
 positive variables

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/input.gms

@@ -42,13 +42,14 @@ scalars
   s32_aff_bii_coeff               BII coefficent to be used for CO2 price driven afforestation 0=natural vegetation 1=plantation (1) / 0 /
   s32_max_aff_area_glo            Switch for global or regional afforestation constraint (1) / 1 /
   s32_aff_prot                    Switch for protection of afforested areas (0=until end of planning horizon 1=forever) / 1 /
-  s32_plant_contr_growth_startyear  Start year for plantation contribution growth fader (year) / 2020 /
-  s32_plant_contr_growth_endyear    End year for plantation contribution growth fader (year) / 2050 /
+  s32_plant_contr_growth_startyear  Start year for plantation contribution growth fader (year) / 1995 /
+  s32_plant_contr_growth_endyear    End year for plantation contribution growth fader (year) / 2030 /
   s32_plant_contr_growth_startvalue Start value for plantation contribution growth fader (percent per year) / 0.05 /
   s32_plant_contr_growth_endvalue   End value for plantation contribution growth fader (percent per year) / 0 /
-  s32_plant_contr_max               Maximum plantation contribution for establishment decision (percent) / 0.5 /
+  s32_plant_contr_max               Maximum plantation contribution for establishment decision (percent) / 1 /
   s32_demand_establishment          Boolean switch for establishment demand assumption 1=forward looking 0=static (1) / 1 /
   s32_npi_ndc_reversal              Year in which NPI NDC reversal should take place (1) / Inf /
+  s32_min_plant_shr                 Minimum share of plantations in planted forests (1) / 0.2 /
 ;
 
 parameter f32_aff_mask(j) afforestation mask (binary)

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/preloop.gms

@@ -158,8 +158,10 @@ if(s32_initial_distribution = 0,
 elseif s32_initial_distribution = 1,
 ** Initialize with equal distribution among rotation age classes
 ** Plantated forest area is divided into ndcs (other planted forest) and plantations
-    p32_land_start_ac(j,"plant",ac)$(ini32(j,ac)) = pm_land_start(j,"forestry") * sum(cell(i,j),f32_plantedforest(i))/p32_rotation_cellular_harvesting("y1995",j);
-    p32_land_start_ac(j,"ndc",ac)$(ini32(j,ac))   = pm_land_start(j,"forestry") * sum(cell(i,j),1- f32_plantedforest(i))/p32_rotation_cellular_harvesting("y1995",j);
+  p32_plantedforest(i) = f32_plantedforest(i);
+  p32_plantedforest(i)$(p32_plantedforest(i) < s32_min_plant_shr) = s32_min_plant_shr;
+  p32_land_start_ac(j,"plant",ac)$(ini32(j,ac)) = pm_land_start(j,"forestry") * sum(cell(i,j),p32_plantedforest(i))/p32_rotation_cellular_harvesting("y1995",j);
+  p32_land_start_ac(j,"ndc",ac)$(ini32(j,ac))   = pm_land_start(j,"forestry") * sum(cell(i,j),1- p32_plantedforest(i))/p32_rotation_cellular_harvesting("y1995",j);
 
 );
 

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/presolve.gms

@@ -171,7 +171,7 @@ p32_plant_contr(t,i)$(p32_plant_contr(t,i) > s32_plant_contr_max) = s32_plant_co
 ** s32_demand_establishment = 1 forward looking (establishment based on future demand according to rotation length)
 if(s32_demand_establishment = 1,
   if(m_year(t) <= sm_fix_SSP2,
-    p32_demand_forestry_future(t,i,kforestry) = sum(t2$(m_year(t2) = sm_fix_SSP2), pm_demand_forestry(t2,i,kforestry));
+    p32_demand_forestry_future(t,i,kforestry) = sum(t_ext$(t_ext.pos = t.pos + p32_rotation_regional(t,i)),pm_demand_forestry(t_ext,i,kforestry));
   else
     p32_demand_forestry_future(t,i,kforestry) = sum(t_ext$(t_ext.pos = t.pos + p32_rotation_regional(t,i)),pm_demand_forestry(t_ext,i,kforestry));
    );

modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/equations.gms

@@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ q35_prod_primforest(j2)..
 *' Wood production from other landis not allowed.
 
 q35_prod_other(j2)..
-               vm_prod_natveg(j2,"other","woodfuel")
+              sum(kforestry, vm_prod_natveg(j2,"other",kforestry))
                =e=
                (sum(ac_sub, v35_hvarea_other(j2,"othernat",ac_sub) * sum(ct, pm_timber_yield(ct,j2,ac_sub,"other")))
               + sum(ac_sub, v35_hvarea_other(j2,"youngsecdf",ac_sub) * sum(ct, pm_timber_yield(ct,j2,ac_sub,"secdforest"))))

modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/presolve.gms

@@ -239,8 +239,6 @@ v35_hvarea_other.fx(j,othertype35,ac_est) = 0;
 v35_secdforest_reduction.fx(j,ac_est) = 0;
 v35_other_reduction.fx(j,othertype35,ac_est) = 0;
 
-vm_prod_natveg.fx(j,"other","wood") = 0;
-
 if(s35_hvarea = 0,
  v35_hvarea_secdforest.fx(j,ac_sub) = 0;
  v35_hvarea_primforest.fx(j) = 0;

modules/73_timber/default/declarations.gms

@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ p73_fraction(t_all)                                                         Frac
 p73_demand_constr_wood(t_all,i)                                             Demand for construction wood (mio. tDM per yr)
 p73_fraction_sm_fix                                                         Modifier fraction at sm_fix_SSP2 time step (1)
 im_timber_prod_cost(kforestry)                                              Cost for producing one unit of wood and woodfuel (USD17MER per tDM)
+p73_income_elasticity(t_all,iso,total_wood_products)                        Income elasticities of wood products (1)
 ;
 
 positive variables

modules/73_timber/default/input.gms

@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ scalars
   s73_timber_prod_cost_woodfuel        Cost for prodcing one unit of woodfuel (USD17MER per tDM) / 74 /
   s73_free_prod_cost                   Very high cost for settling demand without production (USD17MER per tDM) / 1e+06 /
   s73_timber_demand_switch             Logical switch to turn on or off timber demand 1=on 0=off (1) / 1 /
-  s73_increase_ceiling                 Limiter for not allowing a demand jump between time steps beyond a certain limit (1) / 1.025 /
+  s73_income_threshold                 Threshold for income-elastic industrial roundwood demand (USD17PPP per cap per yr) / 10000 /
   s73_residue_ratio                    Proportion of overall industrial roundwood production which ends up as residue during harvest (1) / 0.15 /
   s73_reisdue_removal_cost             Cost of removing residues left after industrial roundwood harvest (USD17MER per tDM) / 2.5 /
   s73_expansion                        Construction wood demand expansion factor by end of century based on industrial roundwood demand as base (1=100 percent increase) / 0 /

modules/73_timber/default/preloop.gms

@@ -11,36 +11,25 @@ s73_free_prod_cost$(s73_timber_demand_switch = 0) = s73_timber_prod_cost_wood;
 ** Set historical values to FAO values
 p73_forestry_demand_prod_specific(t_past_forestry,iso,total_wood_products) = f73_prod_specific_timber(t_past_forestry,iso,total_wood_products);
 
+p73_income_elasticity(t_all,iso,total_wood_products) = f73_income_elasticity(total_wood_products);
+p73_income_elasticity(t_all,iso,total_wood_products)$(im_gdp_pc_ppp_iso(t_all,iso) > s73_income_threshold) = 0;
+p73_income_elasticity(t_all,iso,"wood_fuel") = f73_income_elasticity("wood_fuel");
+
 ** Loop over time to calculate future demand
 ** Calculations based on Lauri et al. 2019
-loop(t_all$(m_year(t_all) > 2015 AND m_year(t_all) <= 2150),
+loop(t_all$(m_year(t_all) > 1995 AND m_year(t_all) <= 2150),
    p73_forestry_demand_prod_specific(t_all,iso,total_wood_products)$(im_gdp_pc_ppp_iso(t_all,iso)>0 AND im_pop_iso(t_all,iso)>0)
           = p73_forestry_demand_prod_specific(t_all-1,iso,total_wood_products)
           *
           (im_pop_iso(t_all,iso)/im_pop_iso(t_all-1,iso))
           *
-          ((im_gdp_pc_ppp_iso(t_all,iso)/im_gdp_pc_ppp_iso(t_all-1,iso))**f73_income_elasticity(total_wood_products))
+          ((im_gdp_pc_ppp_iso(t_all,iso)/im_gdp_pc_ppp_iso(t_all-1,iso))**p73_income_elasticity(t_all,iso,total_wood_products))
           ;
 );
 
 ** Aggregate from ISO country level to MAgPIE region level
 p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,kforestry) = sum((i_to_iso(i,iso),kforestry_to_woodprod(kforestry,total_wood_products)),p73_forestry_demand_prod_specific(t_all,iso,total_wood_products)) * s73_timber_demand_switch ;
 
-** Hard additive calibration for timber demand
-if(s73_timber_demand_switch=1,
-  loop (t_all,
-    if(m_year(t_all) <= 2015,
-        p73_demand_calib(t_all,i,"wood") = f73_regional_timber_demand(t_all,i,"industrial_roundwood") - p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,"wood");
-        p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,"wood") = p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,"wood") + p73_demand_calib(t_all,i,"wood");
-      );
-  );
-
-  loop (t_all$(m_year(t_all) > 2015),
-    p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,"wood")$(p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,"wood") < p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all-1,i,"wood")) = p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all-1,i,"wood") * s73_increase_ceiling;
-    p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,"wood")$(p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,"wood")/p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all-1,i,"wood") > s73_increase_ceiling) = p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all-1,i,"wood") * s73_increase_ceiling;
-  );
-);
-
 ** Alternative wood use scenarios
 $ifthen "%c73_wood_scen%" == "construction"
 p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,"wood") = p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,"wood") * f73_demand_modifier(t_all,"%c73_wood_scen%");
@@ -59,7 +48,7 @@ pm_demand_forestry(t_all,i,kforestry) = round(p73_timber_demand_gdp_pop(t_all,i,
 p73_fraction(t_all)    = s73_expansion/(m_year("y2100") - sm_fix_SSP2);
 
 ** Populate the fraction for each time step
-loop(t_all$(m_year(t_all) > 2015),
+loop(t_all$(m_year(t_all) > 1995),
   p73_fraction(t_all)  = s73_expansion/(m_year("y2100") - sm_fix_SSP2) * m_yeardiff(t_all) + p73_fraction(t_all-1);
   );
 

modules/73_timber/default/sets.gms

@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ fibreboard,particle_board_and_osb,plywood,veneer_sheets
 
 kforestry_to_woodprod(kforestry,total_wood_products) Mapping between intermediate and end use wood products
 /
-wood . (fibreboard,particle_board_and_osb,plywood,veneer_sheets,wood_pulp,sawnwood,other_sawnwood,other_industrial_roundwood)
+wood . (industrial_roundwood)
 woodfuel . (wood_fuel)
 /