Revision timber demand and production + option for WDPA reversal #777

flohump · 2025-02-17T09:49:07Z

🐦 Description of this PR 🐦

Summary of changes:

73_timber revised timber demand calculations
32_forestry revised plantation establishment assumptions
35_natveg revised wood harvest assumptions
22_land_conservation added option for base protection reversal

Demand for industrial roundwood has been revised.
In the current develop (SMIP39), there is almost no difference betwen SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3.
Demand for industrial roundwood is increasing over the whole century.
Main reason: The effect of population peak and decline is overcompensated by increasing GDP, which is increasing in all regions and all sceanrios.
This PR (SMIP42) introces a GDP threshold of 10000 USD per capita per year (based on development state) for income-elastic industrial roundwood demand.
Beyond the threshold, industrial roundwood demand depends on population only.
Also, demand for industrial roundwood is no longer fixed to FAO values for historic years. In this PR, only 1995 from FAO is used as starting point, while all future years depend on our demand calcuations.

At the regional level, wood production is more stable.

Wood fuel demand is largely unchanged.

In addition, the calibration for plantation establishment has been revised with the goal to better match the historic data.
Note that the revised demand calcuations strongly reduce plantation establishment.

Cropland and TAU remain largely unchanged.

Global CO2 emissions remain largely unchanged.
Less spikes in CO2 emissions are regional level.

🔧 Checklist for PR creator 🔧

Label pull request from the label list.
- Low risk: Simple bugfixes (missing files, updated documentation, typos) or changes in start or output scripts
- Medium risk: Uncritical changes in the model core (e.g. moderate modifications in non-default realizations)
- High risk: Critical changes in model core or default settings (e.g. changing a model default or adjusting a core mechanic in the model)
Self-review own code
- No hard coded numbers and cluster/country/region names.
- The new code doesn't contain declared but unused parameters or variables.
- magpie4 R library has been updated accordingly and backwards compatible where necessary.
- scenario_config.csv has been updated accordingly (important if default.cfg has been updated)
Document changes
- Add changes to CHANGELOG.md
- Where relevant, put In-code documentation comments
- Properly address updates in interfaces in the module documentations
- run goxygen::goxygen() and verify the modified code is properly documented
Perform test runs
- Low risk:
  - Run a compilation check via Rscript start.R --> "compilation check"
- Medium risk:
  - Run test runs via Rscript start.R --> "test runs"
  - Check logs for errors/warnings
- High risk:
  - Run test runs via Rscript start.R --> "test runs"
  - Check logs for errors/warnings
  - Default run from the PR target branch for comparison
  - Provide relevant comparison plots (land-use, emissions, food prices, land-use intensity,...)

All test runs have been completed successfully

📉 Performance changes 📈

Current develop branch default : 27 mins
This PR's default : 24.5 mins

🚨 Checklist for reviewer 🚨

PR is labeled correctly
Code changes look reasonable
- No hard coded numbers and cluster/country/region names.
- No unnecessary increase in module interfaces
- model behavior/performance is satisfactory.
Changes are properly documented
- CHANGELOG is updated correctly
- Updates in interfaces have been properly addressed in the module documentations
- In-code documentation looks appropriate
content review done (at least 1)
RSE review done (at least 1)

config/default.cfg

pascal-sauer · 2025-02-18T08:12:54Z

What is SMIP39 and SMIP42?
edit: Ah it's ScenarioMIP? What do the numbers mean?

flohump · 2025-02-18T08:15:31Z

What is SMIP39 and SMIP42?

See introduction at the of this page:
"In the current develop (SMIP39)..."
"This PR (SMIP42) ..."

flohump · 2025-02-18T08:17:51Z

What is SMIP39 and SMIP42?

See introduction at the of this page: "In the current develop (SMIP39)..." "This PR (SMIP42) ..."

M-SSP2-NPi2025 is very similar to our default SSP2-NPI test run.
I also did the default test runs.

tscheypidi

looks good. Just some understanding questions

tscheypidi · 2025-02-18T08:19:14Z

modules/32_forestry/dynamic_may24/input.gms

  s32_demand_establishment          Boolean switch for establishment demand assumption 1=forward looking 0=static (1) / 1 /
  s32_npi_ndc_reversal              Year in which NPI NDC reversal should take place (1) / Inf /
+  s32_min_plant_shr                 Minimum share of plantations in planted forests (1) / 0.2 /


why is that minimum share introduced?

We have regional data set based on FAOSTAT that provides the share of plantations in planted forests. Most regions have a share of 0.7 or more. However, some regions have very small shares (JPN:0,REF:0.06,EUR:017). Considering the high shares in all other regions, this seems implausbile. The difference might be caused by different definitions of plantation forest. The mininum share for plantations aims to avoid that wood harvest relies too strongly on natural vegetation.

tscheypidi · 2025-02-18T08:20:16Z

modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/equations.gms

@@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ q35_prod_primforest(j2)..
 *' Wood production from other landis not allowed.


Suggested change

*' Wood production from other landis not allowed.

*' Wood production from other land is not allowed.

This PR allows wood production from other land.
I revised the in-code documentation accordingly.

tscheypidi · 2025-02-18T08:26:35Z

modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/equations.gms

@@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ q35_prod_primforest(j2)..
 *' Wood production from other landis not allowed.

 q35_prod_other(j2)..
-               vm_prod_natveg(j2,"other","woodfuel")
+              sum(kforestry, vm_prod_natveg(j2,"other",kforestry))


warum der wechsel?

In the current develop, we see implausible imports and exports of industrial roundwood. This is caused by declining growing stock of secondary forest in some regions, causing shortage of wood supply. Allowing not only wood fuel but also industrial roundwood production (kforestry) from other land reduces these issues. The definition of forest vs non-forest natural land is seamless is many cases, and differs from country to country.
Therefore, some wood harvest from other land seems plausible.

tscheypidi · 2025-02-18T08:26:57Z

modules/35_natveg/pot_forest_may24/presolve.gms

@@ -239,8 +239,6 @@ v35_hvarea_other.fx(j,othertype35,ac_est) = 0;
 v35_secdforest_reduction.fx(j,ac_est) = 0;
 v35_other_reduction.fx(j,othertype35,ac_est) = 0;

-vm_prod_natveg.fx(j,"other","wood") = 0;


what happened here?

Removed on purpose. See above.

tscheypidi

thanks for the clarifications

abhimishr

Looks good!

# Conflicts: # CHANGELOG.md

modules/21_trade/selfsuff_reduced/input.gms

modules/73_timber/default/declarations.gms

flohump added 19 commits February 14, 2025 15:43

timber and plant establishment

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test

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test

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test

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update

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test

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test

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bugfix

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update

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bugfix

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update

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update

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update

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Merge branch 'develop' of github.com:magpiemodel/magpie into f_calib

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update

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bugfix

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changelog

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update

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update

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flohump added enhancement New feature or request High risk Higher risk labels Feb 17, 2025

flohump requested review from pvjeetze, pascal-sauer, tscheypidi and abhimishr February 17, 2025 13:49

flohump marked this pull request as ready for review February 17, 2025 13:51

pvjeetze reviewed Feb 17, 2025

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update defaul.cfg

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flohump requested a review from pvjeetze February 17, 2025 16:30

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start script counter

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pascal-sauer approved these changes Feb 18, 2025

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tscheypidi reviewed Feb 18, 2025

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doc update

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abhimishr approved these changes Feb 18, 2025

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flohump added 3 commits February 20, 2025 21:40

parameter update

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Merge branch 'develop' of github.com:magpiemodel/magpie into f_calib

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# Conflicts: # CHANGELOG.md

start script counter

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pascal-sauer reviewed Feb 21, 2025

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reverting unintended change of timber trade cost

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pascal-sauer approved these changes Feb 21, 2025

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flohump merged commit 23e1f8a into magpiemodel:develop Feb 22, 2025
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Revision timber demand and production + option for WDPA reversal #777

Revision timber demand and production + option for WDPA reversal #777

flohump commented Feb 17, 2025 •

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pascal-sauer commented Feb 18, 2025 •

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flohump commented Feb 18, 2025

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tscheypidi Feb 18, 2025

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tscheypidi Feb 18, 2025

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tscheypidi Feb 18, 2025

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		@@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ q35_prod_primforest(j2)..
		*' Wood production from other landis not allowed.

	*' Wood production from other landis not allowed.
	*' Wood production from other land is not allowed.

Revision timber demand and production + option for WDPA reversal #777

Revision timber demand and production + option for WDPA reversal #777

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flohump commented Feb 17, 2025 • edited Loading

🐦 Description of this PR 🐦

🔧 Checklist for PR creator 🔧

📉 Performance changes 📈

🚨 Checklist for reviewer 🚨

pascal-sauer commented Feb 18, 2025 • edited Loading

flohump commented Feb 18, 2025

flohump commented Feb 18, 2025

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flohump commented Feb 17, 2025 •

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pascal-sauer commented Feb 18, 2025 •

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