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Expand Up @@ -2854,3 +2854,10 @@ Assessing Assessors,Huaizhi Chen & Lauren Cohen,"Property tax revenues – the l
Targeted Taylor rules: some evidence and theory," Boris Hofmann, Cristina Manea, Benoit Mojon","Monetary theory and central bank doctrine generally prescribe a forceful reaction to demand-driven inflation and an attenuated response, if any, to supply-driven inflation. The Taylor–type rules used so far to describe central banks' reaction functions assume instead a uniform response of policy rates to inflation irrespective of its drivers.",https://www.bis.org/publ/work1234.htm,1234,2024-12-10,BIS,12/11/2024
Aggregate debt servicing and the limit on private credit," Mathias Drehmann, Mikael Juselius, Sarah Quincy",This paper reviews the debt service ratio (DSR) as a theoretically well-grounded indicator of systemic risk. The DSR has the desirable feature that it fluctuates around a stable level which makes its early warning signals easy to understand and communicate.,https://www.bis.org/publ/work1235.htm,1235,2024-12-11,BIS,12/12/2024
How Much Are Medical Innovations Worth? A Detailed Analysis Using Cost-Effectiveness Studies,"Abe C. Dunn, Lasanthi Fernando, Eli Liebman","Medical innovation is a key driver of cost growth and improved life expectancy, but measuring the welfare contribution of innovations is challenging. We leverage thousands of medical studies to estimate the quality of treatments for 13 health conditions and combine these estimates with insurance claims data to quantify how innovations diffuse and their impact on costs and quality. Across nearly all conditions we study, we find higher quality innovations diffuse. Like markets outside of healthcare, we find innovations can improve consumer welfare substantially. However, we also observe a phenomena arguably unique to healthcare, cases where innovation reduces consumer welfare",https://www.bea.gov//research/papers/2024/how-much-are-medical-innovations-worth-detailed-analysis-using-cost,WP2024-8,2024-12-12,BEA,12/13/2024
Topography of the FX derivatives market: a view from London,"Sinem Hacioğlu-Hoke, Daniel Ostry, Hélène Rey, Adrien Rousset Planat, Vania Stavrakeva and Jenny Tang","We analyse the behaviour of all financial and non‑financial firms active in the UK FX derivatives market – the largest global centre for currency trading – using transaction‑level data. Based on firm‑level net currency derivatives exposures, we find that UK and EU pension funds, investment funds, insurers, and non‑financial corporations use FX derivatives primarily for hedging purposes, with dealer banks accommodating these clients’ hedging needs. In contrast, hedge funds predominantly utilise FX derivatives to speculate, with their trading activity consistent with carry trade, momentum, and macroeconomic news investment strategies. Lastly, the paper documents many novel facts that should motivate theoretical models.",https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2024/topography-of-the-fx-derivatives-market-a-view-from-london,1103,"Fri, 13 Dec 2",BOE,12/14/2024
Radio Spectra as Telecommunications Assets,Rachel Soloveichik,"This paper demonstrates that the measured wealth stock of the United States increases by $2 trillion in 2022 when radio spectra are included on the balance sheet. Furthermore, this paper also demonstrates that tracking radio spectra can impact the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) noticeably. It may be true that radio spectra are not produced—and therefore do not impact measured investment. Similarly, radio spectra do not deteriorate with age—and therefore do not impact measured consumption of fixed capital. However, this paper argues that radio spectrum licenses which the federal government gives for “free” to the telecommunications industry should be tracked as a capital transfer in BEA’s NIPA table 3.1. These capital transfers are targeted towards new entrants and new products, and so they increase the competitiveness of the telecommunications industry.",https://www.bea.gov//research/papers/2024/radio-spectra-telecommunications-assets,WP2024-9,2024-12-13,BEA,12/14/2024
The role of central bank digital currency in an increasingly digital economy,Benjamin Hemingway,"The introduction of an unremunerated retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) is currently under consideration by several central banks. Motivated by the decline in transactional cash usage and the increase in online sales in the UK, this paper provides a theoretical framework to study the underlying drivers of these trends and the welfare implications of introducing an unremunerated retail CBDC. I develop a cash credit model with physical and digital retail sectors, endogenous entry of firms and directed consumer search. Calibrating to UK data between 2010 and 2022 the model suggests that there are positive welfare gains from introducing an unremunerated retail CBDC, but these have likely declined over time.",https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2024/the-role-of-cbdc-in-an-increasingly-digital-economy,1101,"Fri, 13 Dec 2",BOE,12/14/2024
Forbearance lending as a crisis management tool: evidence from Japan,"Isabelle Roland, Yukiko Saito and Philip Schnattinger","By Isabelle Roland, Yukiko Saito and Philip Schnattinger

Credit market interventions have become a widespread policy tool deployed by governments around the world to support their corporate sectors following shocks like the global financial crisis and the pandemic. Among those policies, forbearance programmes allowed firms to temporarily stop making payments on certain debt obligations or obtain debt forgiveness. However, the impact of these policies is not fully understood. In particular, forbearance lending is generally believed to keep unviable firms alive and contribute to the zombification of the corporate sector. To inform this debate, we examine the effects of Japan’s small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) Financing Facilitation Act, which encouraged banks to offer loan forbearance to troubled SMEs. We develop a framework to quantify the aggregate impact of the policy using a difference-in-differences approach combined with back‑of‑the‑envelope counterfactual exercises. Our evaluation indicates that, when coupled with business restructuring plans, forbearance lending can temporarily boost output without contributing to the widespread zombification of the corporate sector. Forbearance is more effective when credit market disruptions impede the reallocation of capital.",https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2024/forbearance-lending-as-a-crisis-management-tool-evidence-from-japan,1102,"Fri, 13 Dec 2",BOE,12/14/2024
Savings-and-credit contracts," Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik, Armando Gomes, David Schoenherr, Janis Skrastins","In this paper, we present a savings-and-credit contract (SCC) design that mandates a savings period with a default penalty before providing credit. We demonstrate that SCCs mitigate adverse selection and can outperform traditional loan contracts amidst information frictions, thereby expanding access to credit. Empirical evidence from a financial product incorporating an SCC design supports our theory.",https://www.bis.org/publ/work1236.htm,1236,2024-12-13,BIS,12/14/2024
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