Analyseren van mogelijke covid scenario's
Base model used for reference
Our model compared to real data
First let's see what happens if we let COVID-19 do its thing:
Hmm quite a "few more" infections, let's take a closer look and compare both models:
- Difference in infections
- Difference in hospitalizations (no ic)
- Difference in intensive care
- Difference in deaths
I think it's safe to say, the lockdown measures were necessary.
For our next scenario, we take a look at the so called "lockdown parties"
To achieve the desired effect, we increased the contact matrix for adolescents between 18 and 25 years of age the day before, on and after the lockdown was put in place.
Hmm... At first sight they seem to have a very small effect. Let's take a closed look.
- Difference in infections
- Difference in hospitalizations (no ic)
- Difference in intensive care
- Difference in deaths
Although the difference is small, it did cost the lifes of about 30 people...