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Feature 1453 create pdf user guide
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ksearight authored Aug 6, 2021
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion met/docs/Users_Guide/appendixC.rst
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A ROC plot is shown for an example set of forecasts, with a solid line connecting the points for six user-specified thresholds (0.25, 0.35, 0.55, 0.65, 0.75, 0.85). The diagonal dashed line indicates no skill while the dash-dot line shows the ROC for a perfect forecast.

An ROC curve shows how well the forecast discriminates between two outcomes, so it is a measure of resolution. The ROC is invariant to linear transformations of the forecast, and is thus unaffected by bias. An unbiased (i.e., well-calibrated) forecast can have the same ROC as a biased forecast, though most would agree that an unbiased forecast is "better". Since the ROC is conditioned on the observations, it is often paired with the reliability diagram, which is conditioned on the forecasts.
A ROC curve shows how well the forecast discriminates between two outcomes, so it is a measure of resolution. The ROC is invariant to linear transformations of the forecast, and is thus unaffected by bias. An unbiased (i.e., well-calibrated) forecast can have the same ROC as a biased forecast, though most would agree that an unbiased forecast is "better". Since the ROC is conditioned on the observations, it is often paired with the reliability diagram, which is conditioned on the forecasts.

.. _appendixC-roc_example:

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8 changes: 4 additions & 4 deletions met/docs/Users_Guide/refs.rst
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.. _Epstein-1969:

| Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories.
| *J. Appl. Meteor.*, 8, 985987, 10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0985:ASSFPF>2.0.CO;2.
| *J. Appl. Meteor.*, 8, 985-987, 10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0985:ASSFPF>2.0.CO;2.
|
.. _Gilleland-2010:
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.. _Mason-2008:

| Mason, S. J., 2008: Understanding forecast verification statistics.
| *Meteor. Appl.*, 15, 3140, doi: 10.1002/met.51.
| *Meteor. Appl.*, 15, 31-40, doi: 10.1002/met.51.
|

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.. _Murphy-1969:

| Murphy, A.H., 1969: On the ranked probability score. *Journal of Applied*
| *Meteorology and Climatology*, 8 (6), 988 989,
| *Meteorology and Climatology*, 8 (6), 988 - 989,
| doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(1969)008<0988:OTPS>2.0.CO;2.
|
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| Tödter, J. and B. Ahrens, 2012: Generalization of the Ignorance Score:
| Continuous ranked version and its decomposition. *Mon. Wea. Rev.*,
| 140 (6), 2005 2017, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00266.1.
| 140 (6), 2005 - 2017, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00266.1.
|
.. _Weniger-2016:
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions met/docs/conf.py
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'papersize': 'letterpaper',
'releasename':"{version}",
'fncychap': '\\usepackage{fncychap}',
'fontpkg': '\\usepackage{amsmath,amsfonts,amssymb,amsthm}',
'fontpkg': '\\usepackage{amsmath,amsfonts,amssymb,amsthm,float}',
'inputenc': '\\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}',
'fontenc': '\\usepackage[LGR,T1]{fontenc}',

'figure_align':'htbp',
'figure_align':'H',
'pointsize': '11pt',

'preamble': r'''
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