This GitHub organization hosts the code and documentation used in a Capstone Project submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Master of Environmental Data Science for the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara
The Paraguayan Chaco is a 32.7-million-acre ecoregion and the second-largest forest in South America. The Paraguayan Chaco lost approximately 1.65 million acres of forest between 2017 and 2020 due to deforestation driven by cattle ranching and cropping. Paraguay has a variety of laws in place to conserve forest cover in this region. To develop land in the Paraguayan Chaco, cattle ranchers must submit land use plans (LUPs) that comply with forestry laws enforced by Paraguay's National Forestry Institute (INFONA). These plans must include a forest reserve covering 25% of the designated land, a 100-meter hedgerow buffer, a 100-meter riparian forest, and paddocks of less than 100 hectares where deforestation is authorized. With tensions rising between the need for economic development and forest conservation, policymakers are considering modifying these laws in response to various stakeholders' needs. Potential modifications to these laws could lead to an increase or decrease in the required forest reserves.
However, policymakers are currently facing challenges in understanding how much forest will be conserved under the existing laws and the potential impact of modifying these laws. To address this issue, our project aims to estimate how changes to the rules governing private LUPs would affect the extent of forest cover and agricultural land in the Paraguayan Chaco.
To achieve this goal, we have outlined the following objectives:
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Assess the compliance of property owners' execution of their approved LUPs and quantify historical deforestation rates.
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Estimate the area designated to be a conserved forest based on current and alternate laws for undeveloped regions.
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Predict deforestation patterns in the undeveloped region of the Paraguayan Chaco, including variations in the laws governing LUPs
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Provide INFONA with a dynamic means to assess LUP compliance and explore the potential consequences of alternative laws on future deforestation patterns, with the potential to impact future forest policy laws.
This project aims to equip the National Forestry Institute (INFONA) with a dynamic and interactive tool to assess current LUP compliance statistics and explore current and alternate laws' impacts on the Paraguayan Chaco and future deforestation patterns.
