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Add weight_predictions function #2147

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Nov 12, 2022
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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions arviz/stats/__init__.py
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -20,6 +20,7 @@
"r2_score",
"summary",
"waic",
"weight_predictions",
"ELPDData",
"ess",
"rhat",
Expand Down
61 changes: 60 additions & 1 deletion arviz/stats/stats.py
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@
NO_GET_ARGS = True

from .. import _log
from ..data import InferenceData, convert_to_dataset, convert_to_inference_data
from ..data import InferenceData, convert_to_dataset, convert_to_inference_data, extract
from ..rcparams import rcParams, ScaleKeyword, ICKeyword
from ..utils import Numba, _numba_var, _var_names, get_coords
from .density_utils import get_bins as _get_bins
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -49,6 +49,7 @@
"r2_score",
"summary",
"waic",
"weight_predictions",
"_calculate_ics",
]

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -2043,3 +2044,61 @@ def apply_test_function(
setattr(out, grp, out_group)

return out


def weight_predictions(idatas, weights=None):
"""
Generate weighted posterior predictive samples from a list of InferenceData
and a set of weights.

Parameters
---------
datasets: list[InfereneData]
List of :class:`arviz.InferenceData` objects containing the groups `posterior_predictive`
and `observed_data`. Observations should be the same for all InferenceData objects.
weights : array-like, optional
Individual weights for each model. Weights should be positive. If they do not sum up to 1,
they will be normalized. Default, same weight for each model.
Weights can be computed using many different methods including those in
:func:`arviz.compare`.

Returns
-------
idata: InferenceData
Output InferenceData object with the groups `posterior_predictive` and `observed_data`.

See Also
--------
compare : Compare models based on PSIS-LOO `loo` or WAIC `waic` cross-validation
"""
if weights is None:
weights = np.ones(len(idatas)) / len(idatas)
weights = np.array(weights, dtype=float)
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weights /= weights.sum()

if not np.all(["posterior_predictive" in idata.groups() for idata in idatas]):
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raise ValueError(
"All the InferenceData objects must contain the `posterior_predictive` group"
)

if not np.all([idatas[0].observed_data.equals(idata.observed_data) for idata in idatas[1:]]):
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raise ValueError("The observed data should be the same for all InferenceData objects")

len_idatas = [
len(idata.posterior_predictive.chain) * len(idata.posterior_predictive.draw)
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for idata in idatas
]

new_samples = (np.min(len_idatas) * weights).astype(int)

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new_idatas = [
extract(idata, group="posterior_predictive", num_samples=samples).reset_coords()
for samples, idata in zip(new_samples, idatas)
]

weighted_samples = InferenceData(
posterior_predictive=xr.concat(new_idatas, dim="sample"),
observed_data=idatas[0].observed_data,
)

return weighted_samples