Welcome aboard the CDSP Group 08 Repository! 🌌
Displaced. Determined. Data-Driven.
We are a team united by purpose and shaped by displacement, using data science
to drive real-world impact.
This project applies data exploration, modeling,
and visualization to explore how renewable energy, specifically Solar Energy (i.e. PV cells),
serves as critical survival infrastructure in conflict-affected communities
worldwide.
Solar Energy acts as a vital survival infrastructure in conflict zones.
Citizens in conflict-affected countries require stable electricity sources,
yet ongoing clashes and targeted attacks on power infrastructure have
severely disrupted their access to reliable power.
This project examines how solar photovoltaic systems function not as
environmental solutions, but as critical survival technology that
enables families to maintain essential services when all
other energy sources fail.
Armed conflicts create immediate survival challenges that go far beyond traditional security concerns. As of 2024, over 130 million people worldwide have been forcibly displaced by war, persecution, and disaster, including 37.6 million refugees and 68.3 million internally displaced persons. While humanitarian responses typically prioritize food, shelter, and medical care, these essential services all depend on one critical resource: reliable energy access.
The energy reality for conflict-affected communities is stark. Nearly 90% of refugee settlements lack reliable electricity access, forcing families to rely on dangerous and inadequate alternatives. Over 80% of displaced populations still depend on firewood or biomass for cooking, exposing women and girls to safety risks while contributing to indoor air pollution that kills millions annually. This energy poverty doesn't just limit comfort, it directly threatens survival by compromising medical services, water access, communication systems, and basic safety through adequate lighting.
In this context, solar photovoltaic systems have emerged not as environmental solutions, but as survival infrastructure. Unlike centralized power grids that become primary targets during conflicts, distributed solar systems offer resilient, locally-controlled energy that can function independently of broader infrastructure networks.
The deployment patterns reveal this survival imperative clearly. Gaza provides the most compelling example: despite ongoing conflict, the territory maintains an estimated 12,400 rooftop solar installations. This is likely the highest concentration globally relative to population size. These systems were not installed for environmental reasons but out of necessity, as Gaza residents received grid power for only 6-8 hours daily even before the current crisis. Solar now accounts for more than 50% of the territory's electricity production, powering essential services from medical clinics to water pumping systems.
Similarly, in Afghanistan, solar deployment increased during conflict periods specifically because it was "the only approach based on economics and reducing risks to personnel in a war zone". Mobile clinics, field hospitals, and communication systems rely on solar power when traditional energy infrastructure fails or becomes too dangerous to maintain.
Despite growing recognition of solar energy's role in conflict zones, significant knowledge gaps remain about how armed conflicts specifically affect three critical dimensions of solar deployment:
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Deployment Patterns
How do conflict dynamics influence where, when, and why households and communities install solar PV systems? Do installations increase during active conflict due to grid failures, or decrease due to economic constraints and physical dangers?
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Capacity Utilization
How effectively do solar systems operate under conflict conditions? Evidence from Gaza shows that 64.8% of solar panels have been damaged by ongoing hostilities, yet families continue using compromised systems because they provide essential survival power.
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Household Consumption
How do energy consumption patterns change when families transition from grid dependence to solar-powered systems during conflicts? What services do households prioritize when energy becomes scarce and self-generated?
How have armed conflicts over the past 25 years influenced the deployment, capacity utilization, and household consumption of solar photovoltaic systems—both environmentally and socially—in conflict-affected communities?
By examining the relationships between conflict intensity, solar system adoption rates, capacity factors, and household energy consumption patterns, we can better understand how families adapt their energy strategies for survival. The findings will inform humanitarian energy planning, post-conflict reconstruction efforts, and resilient infrastructure design for communities facing ongoing security challenges.
Why This Matters?
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Solar energy offers fast, decentralized, and life-saving power in conflict-affected areas, where 675 million people still lack electricity. This technology empowers vulnerable communities by delivering resilience, dignity, and sustainable energy infrastructure during humanitarian crises.
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Solving this problem could provide life-saving infrastructure in unstable regions, promote energy equity, and support long-term sustainable development goals.
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The humanitarian community and affected populations increasingly recognize the need for resilient sustainable and decentralized energy solutions in conflicted areas
Why Solar Energy?
- Fast Power: Quick to set up where grids are down.
- Resilient: Decentralized, harder to disrupt than central power.
- Low Upkeep: No moving parts, minimal repairs needed.
- Cost-Saving: Cheaper than fuel-dependent generators.
- Life-Saving: Powers clinics, water, and communications.
- Safer: Provides light, boosting security.
- Clean: No pollution, better for health and environment.
- Time Period: 25 years (2000-2024)
- Renewable Energy Focus: Solar Photovoltaic Systems
- Geographic Regions: Syria, Iraq, Sudan, South Sudan, Palestine, Mali, Ethiopia, Ukraine, Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Somalia,Pakistan, Mozambique and Myanmar (17 countries)
- Analysis Dimensions: Deployment patterns, capacity utilization, household consumption.
To ground our data‑driven work in real‑world context, we've prepared a detailed systems analysis of the electrical power challenges in conflict‑affected areas:
- Patterns & trends in how and where outages occur.
- Underlying structures that make the grid vulnerable.
- Mental models shaping decision‑making on both sides.
- Potential interventions from distributed solar micro-grids to local maintenance commit
For more details refer to 0_domain_study keeping more background studies, problem domain understanding and our process about how we reached our research question.
Imagine trying to understand how people survive in war-torn areas when the lights go out — literally. That’s where our project begins.
At the center of it all is solar energy — not just as a clean tech solution, but as a lifeline when everything else fails. When power lines are bombed, families are displaced, and normal life disappears, solar can step in as survival infrastructure — helping people charge phones, power lights, and keep hospitals or schools running. We're looking at things like:
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Our domain model focuses on three main areas:
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A detailed description of each dataset, including collection methods, potential limitations, and direct relevance to our problem, can be found in the Datasets Used section.
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IRENA Renewable Energy Statistics: Provides annual data on renewable energy capacity and generation, including both on-grid and off-grid solar PV deployment across countries and regions.
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UN Comtrade: Offers detailed trade data on solar-related products (e.g., panels, inverters), crucial for understanding import trends in conflict zones.
Data Preparation
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Timeframe filtered:
All datasets were limited to 2000–2024. -
Conflict Status labels added:
Countries were tagged by their conflict phase (pre-, active-, post-conflict). -
Cleaning steps included:
- Removing irrelevant or non-solar data for some datasets
- Handling missing values (e.g., zero or no data was covered)
- Renaming columns for consistency
Data Exploration
Understanding trends in solar capacity deployment, trade patterns, and energy access in conflict-affected countries.
The analysis revealed unexpected insights, such as rapid solar adoption in war zones and significant disparities between conflict and comparison countries. We visualized capacity growth, explored outliers, and identified key data limitations. While the datasets are valuable, a more complete picture requires integrating conflict timelines and socioeconomic indicators.
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Overall Insights
- Conflict disrupts but does not prevent solar adoption.
- Solar development can surge during brief periods of stability.
- Additional data on conflict intensity and socioeconomic factors is needed for deeper analysis.
For more details refer to /2_data_preparation keeping all our cleaning, transformation, and prep scripts and /3_data_exploration exploring, visualizing, and get a feel for our datasets.
Investigating how solar energy deployment changes across different phases of conflict, economic statuses, duration, technology types and both environmental and social impact in different conflict-affected countries ( 2000–2024 ); using IRENA and UN Comtrade datasets, analyzing on-grid/off-grid capacity, import trends, and conflict timelines.
Conflict periods are often associated with increased solar energy adoption..
- Conflict does not automatically suppress development; but as windows of opportunity existing even in fragile settings.
- Recovery capacity varies widely; some countries rebound with aid or reform, others remain paralyzed.
- Strategic, resilient infrastructure development is possible, but often hinges on timing, governance, and stability.
- Three-way link between conflict duration, economic status, and solar adoption—where conflict increases the need, GDP shapes capacity, and policy ensures sustainability
Overall Pattern
| Pattern Type | Description | Countries |
|---|---|---|
| Consistent Growth | Countries that sustained or increased solar investment during both active and post-conflict phases | Iraq, Afghanistan, South Sudan |
| Conflict-Driven Surge | Countries where solar adoption peaked during conflict but dropped or stopped after | Ukraine, Yemen, Sudan, Syria |
| Post-Conflict Recovery | Countries with low or moderate solar growth during conflict, but modest recovery afterward | Ethiopia, Libya |
| Stalled Development | Countries with low or no adoption in both periods, often due to prolonged instability | None fully fit this, but Libya and South Sudan were on the borderline early on |
Overall Pattern
On Sudan:
Grid power came first: By 2018, on-grid non-solar power reached full capacity, mainly from hydropower and thermal sources like the Merowe and Roseires Dams.
Solar followed slowly: Off-grid solar expanded gradually, reaching capacity by 2021 amid post-2019 instability and weak rural infrastructure.
In Sudan (2010–2023), off-grid solar deployment rises steadily, unlike on-grid deployment, which increases sporadically—likely tied to major government projects. Off-grid growth stagnates in 2022–2023, possibly due to missing data. The dataset likely fails to capture actual declines, especially for on-grid deployment, limiting the accuracy of year-to-year comparisons in the later period.
On Ukraine:
Moderate correlation (r = 0.343); Imports typically occur in short bursts, followed by gradual deployment increases, especially between 2014–2019. Post-2019 declines in imports and 2024 deployment drops likely reflect conflict impacts.
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Overall Pattern
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Conflict-period imports often exceed pre- and post-conflict levels.
→ During active conflict, demand for decentralized and backup power sources spikes, especially in humanitarian or survival contexts. -
PV Modules dominate overall imports.
→ PV panels are the core component of solar systems, making them the foundation of any solar energy deployment strategy. -
Solar Lamps and Lithium Batteries have a larger share during conflicts, indicating a need for portable power.
→ In emergencies, small-scale, off-grid solutions are critical for lighting, communication, and basic household use — especially when grid access is unreliable. -
Inverters and Lead-Acid Batteries maintain smaller, steady shares.
→ These components support more permanent solar setups, which are harder to install or maintain during unstable conditions.
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Q4. What are the environmental and social impact in conflict-affected countries?
Overall Pattern
- Slower Growth in Conflict Areas: While solar power still grew in conflict zones, it was at a much slower pace. This suggests that wars make it harder to build big solar projects.
- Slower Access to renewable energy: this has tremendous consequences, in conflict zones, the relying in fossil fuels increase which will eventually lead to more CO2 emissions.
- Less Pollution Avoided in Conflict Zones: while solar power in conflict areas may help in reducing pollution, the amount will be much, much smaller compared to peaceful regions. This is simply because there will be less solar power installed in war-torn places, also the excessive use of fuel in cars, planes and other military vehicles is extremely high during conflicts and its usage is uncontrolled. So, conflicts don't just hurt people; they also slow down our planet's healing process by limiting clean energy.
- The conflict doesn't just stop the lights from coming on; it holds back health, education, and economic growth.
We are moderately confident in the trends observed. Core patterns appear consistent across countries, but some data gaps and contextual complexities limit certainty.
- Data gaps in post-conflict years and low-income countries.
- Imports ≠ direct deployment; stockpiling or re-exports possibles.(black markets or secondhand use)
- No modeling of lag effects between import and deployment.
- Conflict phase definitions are simplified proxies.
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Many Other Factors: The amount of solar power a country installs or how many people get connected depends on many things, not just conflict. Things like a country's wealth, its government's policies, help from other countries, and even its geography all play a huge role.
- Statistical analysis showed that there is no significant difference in mean solar PV capacity nor the number of people connected between conflict and non-conflict regions.
Results and Interpretation
- Raw Result: "Solar capacity grows during conflict."
Interpretation: Solar becomes a survival tool, not just an environmental solution, as communities adapt to grid failures with decentralized energy. - Raw Result: "Off-grid systems surge in fragile settings."
Interpretation: Signals the need for localized, self-sufficient power when central infrastructure collapses—often supported by humanitarian aid. - Raw Result: "Solar Lamps and Lithium Batteries have a larger share during conflicts."
Interpretation: Reflects urgent demand for portable energy for lighting, phone charging, and safety—vital for displaced populations.
Future work
- Use maps or data showing how intense conflict is in different areas.
- Study if there's a delay between importing equipment and solar growth.
- Compare solar projects funded by aid vs. those driven by local markets.
- Check the results against real project data or insights from local experts.
For more details, assumptions and limitations refer to /4_data_analysis including all scripts, visualizations, technical methodology, and a non-technical summary of our findings, confidence levels, and limitations.
Our strategy is designed to help local community leaders or advocates to become the main driver of solar energy adoption where they live.
The central message is that "Solar power is not just about lights—it's about our community's future."
The goal is to position solar energy as a permanent and sustainable solution that gives communities control over their essential services, particularly in the face of an unreliable power grid.
The document's narrative is structured to be both relatable and compelling:
- The Problem: It highlights the challenges of an unreliable power grid and the high cost of diesel generators, which disrupt critical services like healthcare and water supply. It also addresses the misconception that solar is only for private use.
- The Discovery: It presents evidence that small, durable solar systems are a more resilient and effective alternative to the central grid, especially during crises.
- The Call to Action: The document concludes by calling on Popular Committees in Sudan to take the lead in adopting solar energy, positioning them as champions of resilience and self-sufficiency.
Our strategy focuses on two key groups:
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UNHCR (Funders):
Through a 12-slide pitch presentation, we clearly communicate the project’s purpose, funding request, and the role of Popular Committees in Sudan. -
Popular Committees (General Public):
Local, elected groups in Sudan that manage essential services (water, electricity, sanitation, dispute resolution) in the absence of strong state institutions.
They connect communities with government bodies and aid agencies, especially during crises. While solar energy is recognized as a solution, its use is mainly private; public services still rely on diesel generators.
Toolkit provided: WhatsApp-shareable infographics, short video success stories, and fact sheets to dispel solar myths.
By Refugees to Refugees
You can view the final proposal here: Proposal: Solar Energy for Community Resilience in Sudan that fits UNHCR Refugee Fund evaluation criteria.
Why It Matters
Communities across Sudan face unreliable power grids and costly diesel generators. Essential services fail when they are needed most.
In conflict zones, solar adoption rises — because it works when nothing else does.
Our Solar Survival Kit pilot in Khartoum will:
- Deliver modular solar systems to public institutions.
- Be led and maintained by Popular Committees.
- Prove that community-led solar can replace diesel for critical services.
What We’re Asking
From UNHCR and other funders:
- $45,000 in flexible, direct funding for the 12-month pilot.
- Amplification of results to reach policymakers and donors.
- Advocacy for refugee-led, sustainable energy policies.
From local committees:
- Lead planning, deployment, and upkeep of solar systems.
- Use our communication toolkit to build public support.
From the public:
- Shift the perception of solar from luxury to necessity.
- Participate in community funding and maintenance.
- Funders: Pitch decks, impact infographics,
- Committees: WhatsApp-ready infographics, short videos, fact sheets, and meeting templates.
- Public: Blog post in local languages, highlighting relatable success stories.
For more details refer to our Communication Strategy, including our detailed process (
process.md), public-facing summary (readme.md), persuasive pitch (pitch.md), and full proposal (proposal.md).
timeline
title Project Timeline
section May 27 - June 2
Cross-Cultural Collaboration :
Repository setup, collaboration setup, communication planning : ✅ Completed
section June 3 - June 16
Problem Identification :
Define the problem & research question : ✅ Completed
section June 17 - June 30
Data Collection :
Decide how to model our problem domain and collect data : ✅ Completed
section July 1 - July 21
Data Analysis:
Analyze data and interpret results : ✅ Completed
section July 22 - August 11
Communicating results:
Translate findings for a target audience : ✅ Completed
section August 12 - August 25
Final Presentation:
Present the full journey and lessons learned : 🔄 In progress
project/
├── README.md # Project overview and main instructions
├── guide.md # Detailed guide on using this template
├── /collaboration/ # Team norms, strategies, and retrospectives
├── /notes/ # Shared resources and learning materials
├── /0_domain_study/ # Domain research and background
├── /1_datasets/ # Raw and processed datasets
├── /2_data_preparation/ # Scripts for cleaning and processing data
├── /3_data_exploration/ # Scripts for initial data understanding
├── /4_data_analysis/ # Scripts for in-depth analysis
├── /5_communication_strategy/ # Materials for communicating findings
└── /6_final_presentation/ # Final presentation materials
Who's behind all this? Meet the passionate minds Github driving this project:
- ِAbdallah Alnajjar
- Ahd Basan
- Anyak
- Mariia Ermishina
- Mohamed Altayeb
- Mohamed Saeed
- Mohamed Elnajeeb
- Muhannad Assaf
- Eman Alfalouji
- Zeinab Mohammed
- Maria Alejandra Cardeno
- Safa Saber
To set up the project locally and understand our contribution guidelines, please see our CONTRIBUTING.md file.
This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.