London Venue Hire Price Prediction

In this project, we aimed to build an ML model to predict the price to hire a venue space in London (e.g. for work drinks or family event etc.) based on the characteristics of the space (location, capacity etc.). Venues could use this model to optimise their pricing and maximise their revenues, ensuring they are not under or over priced.

The model was trained on data that we scraped from the Tagvenue website. Tagvenue provides a service similar to AirBnB but for finding and booking venues for an event. The website hosts thousands of venues in the UK that can be booked for events.

Repo Structure and Notebooks

The project code and detailed explanations of what we did, the decisons we made and insights we found are all detailed in the Jupyter notebooks. The location of each notebook in the repo and a brief description of what it contains is detailed below. View a notebook by clicking on its name:

• data_scraping -> tag_Venue_Scrape.ipynb - Performs web scrape of Tagvenue, extracting data from all event spaces in London and creates 2 datasets: tag_venue_space_data.csv (characteristics of each space e.g. location, size etc.) and tag_venue_space_prices.csv (prices to rent each space).
• data_cleaning -> tag_data_clean.ipynb - Cleans the raw scraped datasets, including dealing with null or missing values, identifying erroneous data and re-engineering variables as required to make them sensible for exploration and modelling.
• price_data_exploration -> price_data_exploration.ipynb - Explores the relatively complicated price data in tag_venue_space_prices.csv to understand the prices and decide what prices we will actually model. Creates 3 separate datasets for modeling (each dataset is a subset of the tag_venue_space_prices.csv that has been merged with the associated data in tag_venue_space_data.csv and is thus ready for modeling).
• price_modelling -> min_spend_modeling.ipynb - Explores the merged data above to identify predictors for modelling price, including the engineering of geographical based features. Price is then modelled using different methods e.g. OLS, ridge, KNN etc. using cross validation to tune hyperparameters. The best model in training was then evaluated using a test set.

Project Outcomes

Overall Outcome

• Our best model was a Gradient Boosted Tree Reggressor with a test error of £977 (for a median price of £1000)
• The model we created was not accurate enough to be useful and so unfortunately we did not succeed in creating a useful venue hire pricing model.

Lessons Learned

• We think the poor performance of the model is mainly due to the poor quality of the Tagvenue data we collected. During exploration, we only found a single highly correlated variable ('max_seated_or_standing'). Neither the engineering of geographical based pricing features nor the use of different models ever dramatically improved the performance.
• Either the pricing data was unreliable (perhaps because venues rarely update the prices or provided misleading or inaccurate pricing) or the key variables that set venue space pricing are absent from the Tagvenue website.
• A key takewaway is summed up in the phrase 'bad data in, bad data out' - In future, we would perform basic correlation / exploration checks on data as soon as possible (i.e. before a thorough cleaning or in depth exploration). You are probably better off spending the time finding new, better data if the critical correlations / associations with the target variable are missing.

Project Milestones

• Scraped and cleaned data for over 4700 venue spaces from Tagvenue.com
• Thoroughly explored the scraped data, including a complex exploration of the pricing data and the engineering of geographical based pricing features.
• Modelled prices using OLS, Ridge, Lasso, elastic net, KNN and gradient boosted trees, including the creation of custom scikit-learn transformers and the use of cross validation to tune hyperparameters and select variables.

Datasets

All data used in the project was stored in the data folder. The below table describes each dataset:

Folder	File Name	Description
raw_scraped_data	tag_venue_space_data.csv	Stores general information on each space, e.g. location, area, capacity, catering details, features etc. One row per event space.
raw_scraped_data	tag_venue_space_prices.csv	Stores price data for each space. The price data is a bit complex, with prices shown for different days of the week and for different time periods e.g. per hour or per day. Each row is one price offering for a single space on a single day of the week. Each space will have many price offerings and thus each space will have many rows in the csv.
cleaned_data	tag_venue_space_data.csv	same as above but after the data has been cleaned
cleaned_data	tag_venue_space_prices.csv	same as above but after the data has been cleaned
datasets_for_modeling	min_spend_data.csv	Contains all minimum spend prices to book a space for an evening or for a day. One row per event space.
datasets_for_modeling	hire_fee_data.csv	Contains all hire fee prices to book a space for a day. One row per event space.
datasets_for_modeling	all_hire_fee_and_min_spend_data.csv	Contains all minimum spend and hire fee prices to book spaces for any time (morning, afternoon, evening and day). Multiple rows per event space (where a space offers multiple prices for different times of day).

Metadata For Datasets

This section details metadata for each dataset (organised by data folder name e.g. cleaned_data):

datasets_for_modeling

The 3 datasets for modeling min_spend_data.csv, hire_fee_data.csv and all_hire_fee_and_min_spend_data.csv all use columns from the cleaned tag_venue_space_data.csv and tag_venue_space_prices.csv files. There metadata can found below.

cleaned_data

Below we show metadata for the cleaned tag_venue_space_data.csv and tag_venue_space_prices.csv files:

tag_venue_space_data.csv

Column	Data type	Description
space_url	string	url of event space's web page on Tagvenue.com. Can be used as unique key for each space.
venue_url	string	url of the venue web page on Tagvenue.com. The venue owns the space i.e. the event space resides within the venue. This column can be used to map spaces to venues i.e. to identify which spaces belong to a single venue.
venue_name	string	Name of venue. The venue owns the space, i.e. the space resides within the venue.
space_name	string	Name of event space
latitude	float	Latitude of venue
longitude	float	Longitude of venue
address	string	Address of venue
nearest_tube_station	string	Nearest tube station to venue.
tube_distance	int	Distance in feet from venue to nearest tube station.
max_seated	int	Maximum seating capacity of event space
max_standing	int	Maximum standing capacity of event space
max_seated_or_standing	int	The larger of max_seated and max_standing
min_area_per_person	float	The area per person assuming that the maximim number of guests are there. This is area_in_m2 divided by max_seated_or_standing.
area_in_m2	int	Area of event space in metres squared
standing	bool	Indicates if the event space can provide a standing layout (True/False).
dining	bool	Indicates if the event space can provide a dining layout (True/False).
theatre	bool	Indicates if the event space can provide a theatre layout (True/False).
boardroom	bool	Indicates if the event space can provide a boardroom layout (True/False).
classroom	bool	Indicates if the event space can provide a classroom layout (True/False).
cabaret	bool	Indicates if the event space can provide a cabaret layout (True/False).
u_shaped	bool	Indicates if the event space can provide a u-shaped layout (True/False).
Dining_max	int	Maximum capacity of space using a dining layout (will be 0 if dining layout is not available)
Theatre_max	int	Maximum capacity of space using a theatre layout (will be 0 if theatre layout is not available)
Boardroom_max	int	Maximum capacity of space using a boardroom layout (will be 0 if boardroom layout is not available)
Classroom_max	int	Maximum capacity of space using a classroom layout (will be 0 if classroom layout is not available)
Cabaret_max	int	Maximum capacity of space using a cabaret layout (will be 0 if cabaret layout is not available)
U-Shaped_max	int	Maximum capacity of space using a u-shaped layout (will be 0 if u-shaped layout is not available)
supervenue	bool	Is this venue a supervenue (True / False) - 'Supervenue program is based on our customers' feedback and highlights venues that are most dedicated to providing outstanding hospitality, customer service and event experience'
external_catering	string	Categorical variable defining the external catering options for the venue. When any external caterer is allowed, the category will specify if a fee is required to use an external caterer and whether an in-house kitchen is available for guests to use to prepare food. It has the following categories: 'No External Catering', 'External Catering From Approved List', 'Any External Caterer - no fee - no kitchen for guests' , 'Any External Caterer - no fee - kitchen for guests', 'Any External Caterer - fee - no kitchen for guests' and 'Any External Caterer - fee - kitchen for guests'.
in_house_kitchen	bool	The venue has an in-house kitchen to provide food (True/False)
byo_alcohol	string	Categorical column indicating whether the venue allows you to bring your own alcohol and if so, whether there is a corkage fee. Has the following categories: 'BYO alcohol not allowed', 'No Corkage fee' and 'Corkage Fee'.
venue_provides_alcohol	bool	The venue provides alcohol (True/False)
alcohol_licence	string	The latest time the venue is allowed to sell alcohol.
extension_available	string	Categorical variable indicating whether the alcohol licence can be extended to a later time. Has the values: 'extension available', 'extension not available', 'alcohol not available'.
complimentary_water	bool	Venue provides complimentary water (True/False)
complimentary_tea_and_coffee	bool	Venue provides complimentary tea and coffee (True/False)
Halal_menu	mixed string and bool	Indicates whether venue provides a Halal menu either through their in-house kitchen or from their approved external vendors. Has values: 'False', 'True', 'venue doesnt provide catering'.
Kosher_menu	mixed string and bool	Indicates whether venue provides a kosher menu either through their in-house kitchen or from their approved external vendors. Has values: 'False', 'True', 'venue doesnt provide catering'.
vegan_menu	mixed string and bool	Indicates whether venue provides a vegan menu either through their in-house kitchen or from their approved external vendors. Has values: 'False', 'True', 'venue doesnt provide catering'.
gluten_free_menu	mixed string and bool	Indicates whether venue provides a gluten-free menu either through their in-house kitchen or from their approved external vendors. Has values: 'False', 'True', 'venue doesnt provide catering'.
parking	string	Categorical variable of the parking options for the venue. Has the values: 'No Parking Available', 'Paid Parking', 'Free Parking', 'Paid and/or Free Parking ', 'Paid and Free Parking'
Wi-Fi	bool	Wifi is available in the space (True/False)
Projector	bool	A projector is available in the space (True/False)
Flipchart	bool	A flipchart is available in the space (True/False)
Natural_light	bool	Space has window and / or skylight that provides natural light (True/False).
Flatscreen_TV	bool	A flatscreen TV is available in the space (True/False)
Whiteboard	bool	A Whiteboard is available in the space (True/False)
Conference_call_facilities	bool	Conference call facilities are available in the space (True/False)
Air_conditioning	bool	Air conditionaing is available in the space (True/False)
Storage_space	bool	Storage space is available in the space to store items during an event (True/False)
Accommodation_available	bool	Accommodation is available in the venue (True/False)
Own_music_allowed	bool	Guests can play their own music in the space (True/False)
Bring_your_own_DJ	bool	Guests can bring their own DJ to the space (True/False)
PA_system_or_music_speakers_available	bool	A PA system or music speakers are available in the space (True/False)
Wheelchair_accessible	bool	The space is wheelchair accessible (True/False)
Promoted_or_ticketed_events	bool	The venue allows promoted or ticketed events (True/False)
Loud_music_or_events	bool	The venue allows events with amplified live or recorded music and / or loud entertainment (True/False).
Wedding_licence	bool	Venue is licenced to host wedding ceremonies and receptions (True/False).
Temporary_event_notices_(TENs)_available	bool	Temporary event notices (TENs) are available in the space, allowing you to carry out licensable events (such as weddings) in an unlicenced space (True/False)
Disabled_access_toilets	bool	Disabled access toilets are available in the space (True/False)
Ground_level	bool	The space is on ground level (True/False)
Lift_to_all_floors	bool	A lift to all floors is available in the venue (True/False).

tag_venue_space_prices.csv

Column	Data type	Description
space_url	string	url of event space's web page on Tagvenue.com. Can be used as unique key for each space.
venue_url	string	url of the venue web page on Tagvenue.com. The venue owns the space i.e. the event space resides within the venue. This column can be used to map spaces to venues i.e. to identify which spaces belong to a single venue.
venue_name	string	Name of venue. The venue owns the space, i.e. the space resides within the venue.
space_name	string	Name of event space
latitude	float	Latitude of venue
longitude	float	Longitude of venue
day_of_week	string	Day of week the price is for e.g. 'Monday' means this is the price to rent space on a Monday.
time_period_desc	string	Description of time period that the price is for e.g. 'per morning' means you can hire the space at this price for a morning.
time_period	string	A start and end time that precisely defines the time period that this price will hire the space for. It has the format 'start time - end time' and the times are written in integer format e.g. '6 - 17' means start time 6 am till end time 5 pm.
time_from	int	Start time of hire period, in 24 hour time format and stored as an integer. For example, 9.00 am is 9, 4 pm is 16 and 12 pm is 0.
time_to	int	End time of hire period, in 24 hour time format and stored as an integer. For example, 9.00 am is 9, 4 pm is 16 and 12 pm is 0.
time_length	int	Hours the space will be booked for at this price (difference in time between time_from and time_to).
total_price	int	The total price in UK £s required to book the space on the day of week specified (in day_of_week) and for the time period specified (in time_period).
price_type	string	Type of pricing e.g. 'min spend', 'hire fee' etc. or in the case of a combined price it could be 'min spend + hire'. The possible prices types are: 'hire fee', 'min. spend', 'per person', 'hire fee per hour', 'hire fee + min. spend', 'hire fee + per person'.
rent_price_split	int	The amount of the total_price that is due to a hire fee (in UK £s). This will be null unless price_type is 'hire fee + min. spend' or 'hire fee + per person'.
min_spend_split	int	The amount of the total_price that is due to a minimum spend (in UK £s). This will be null unless price_type is 'hire fee + min. spend' or 'hire fee + per person'.
per_person_split	int	The amount of the total_price that is due to a per person fee (in UK £s). This will be null unless price_type is 'hire fee + min. spend' or 'hire fee + per person'.

raw_scraped_data

Below we show metadata for the raw scraped tag_venue_space_data.csv and tag_venue_space_prices.csv files:

tag_venue_space_data.csv

Column	Data type	Description
space_url	string	url of event space's web page on Tagvenue.com
venue_url	string	url of the venue web page on Tagvenue.com. The venue owns the space i.e. the event space resides within the venue.
venue_name	string	Name of venue. The venue owns the space, i.e. the space resides within the venue.
space_name	string	Name of event space
latitude	float	Latitude of venue
longitude	float	Longitude of venue
address	string	Address of venue
nearest_tube_station	string	Nearest tube station to venue, includes distance from nearest tube in feet when available
max_seating	int	maximum seating capacity of event space
max_standing	int	maximum standing capacity of event space
area_in_msqrd	int	Area of event space in metres squared
catering_offered_by_venue	bool	Is catering offered by the venue for this event space (True / False)
external_catering_allowed	bool	Is external catering allowed for this event space (True/False)
supervenue	bool	Is this venue a supervenue (True / False) - 'Supervenue program is based on our customers' feedback and highlights venues that are most dedicated to providing outstanding hospitality, customer service and event experience'
capacity section: columns 'Boardroom_max' to 'Classroom_max'	int	Each column header describes a different available layout e.g. 'Boardroom_max' is the boardroom layout. The value is the maximum capacity for the space when using that layout. The value will be missing if the space does not offer that layout.
catering section part 1: columns 'Approved caterers only' to 'Venue provides alcohol'	int (1 or 0)	Each column header is a description of whether the venue does or does not provide a certain catering option. E.g. 'BYO alcohol not allowed' and 'BYO alcohol allowed'. These columns contain either a 1 or 0 to indicate which statement is correct for this venue. The pairs of contradicting statements are mutually exclusive such that if 'BYO alcohol not allowed' is 1 then 'BYO alcohol allowed' should be 0. The 'Approved Caterers Only' column has no contradicting column, i.e. there is no 'Unapproved Caterers Allowed' column.
catering section part 2: columns 'Buyout fee for external catering' to 'Alcohol licence until 21:00'	bool	Each column header is a catering option (e.g. 'Halal menu') and the value will be True or False to indicate if the space offers that catering option. If the value is missing, then the web page for the space did not indicate whether this catering option is available or not.
features section: columns 'Wi-Fi' to 'Disabled access toilets'	bool	Each column header is a feature option (e.g. 'Wi-Fi') and the value will be True or False to indicate if the space offers that feature option. If the value is missing, then the web page for the space did not indicate whether this feature option is available or not.

tag_venue_space_prices.csv

Column	Data type	Description
space_url	string	url of the space web page on Tagvenue.com
venue_name	string	Name of venue
space_name	string	Name of event space
latitude	float	Latitude of venue
longitude	float	Longitude of venue
day_of_week	string	Day of week the price is for e.g. 'Monday' means this is the Monday price.
pricing_period	string	Description of time period that that you can reserve the space for at this price e.g. 'per morning'
time_period	string	Hours the space will be booked for at this price
price	string	Price in UK £s to book the space for the given day_of_week and pricing_period / time_period. This can be a combined price e.g. '£50 + £100' which is why it is a string datatype. The price_type column will indicate what each of the two prices quoted refer to.
price_type	string	Type of pricing e.g. 'min spend', 'hire' etc. or in the case of a combined price it could be 'min spend + hire'