From e96dcc8b3338e6afa0f468e7936378459e36c343 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: no5ix <1145263208@qq.com> Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2024 04:20:44 -0700 Subject: [PATCH] add post : eng_youtube_john_and_jeffray_all_in_summit_2024.md --- .../_posts/a_fish_flock_ai_plugin_for_ue4.md | 1 - ..._time_game_server_and_a_ue4_demo_for_it.md | 1 - source/_posts/algo_meta_top_100.md | 101 +- ...er_and_jeffrey_sachs_all_in_summit_2024.md | 6205 +++++++++++++++++ source/_posts/kcpp_intro.md | 1 - ...44\271\213\346\274\224\347\244\272Demo.md" | 1 - source/img/algo_meta_top_100/image-6.png | Bin 0 -> 94351 bytes 7 files changed, 6304 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) create mode 100644 source/_posts/eng_youtube_john_mearsheimer_and_jeffrey_sachs_all_in_summit_2024.md create mode 100644 source/img/algo_meta_top_100/image-6.png diff --git a/source/_posts/a_fish_flock_ai_plugin_for_ue4.md b/source/_posts/a_fish_flock_ai_plugin_for_ue4.md index e2d1f0ee1a..1bede3e210 100644 --- a/source/_posts/a_fish_flock_ai_plugin_for_ue4.md +++ b/source/_posts/a_fish_flock_ai_plugin_for_ue4.md @@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ tags: - CPP categories: - GitHub -top: 1 --- diff --git a/source/_posts/a_real_time_game_server_and_a_ue4_demo_for_it.md b/source/_posts/a_real_time_game_server_and_a_ue4_demo_for_it.md index 26735bf2b0..fe8379d4dc 100644 --- a/source/_posts/a_real_time_game_server_and_a_ue4_demo_for_it.md +++ b/source/_posts/a_real_time_game_server_and_a_ue4_demo_for_it.md @@ -6,7 +6,6 @@ tags: - UE4 categories: - GitHub -top: 5 --- diff --git a/source/_posts/algo_meta_top_100.md b/source/_posts/algo_meta_top_100.md index d0dcd3c548..566aaee8bb 100644 --- a/source/_posts/algo_meta_top_100.md +++ b/source/_posts/algo_meta_top_100.md @@ -136,7 +136,6 @@ According to the [**definition of LCA on Wikipedia**](https://en.wikipedia.org/ **Example 1:** ![alt text](/img/algo_meta_top_100/image-1.png) -!https://assets.leetcode.com/uploads/2018/12/14/binarytree.png ``` Input: root = [3,5,1,6,2,0,8,null,null,7,4], p = 5, q = 1 @@ -147,7 +146,6 @@ Explanation: The LCA of nodes 5 and 1 is 3. **Example 2:** ![alt text](/img/algo_meta_top_100/image-2.png) -!https://assets.leetcode.com/uploads/2018/12/14/binarytree.png ``` Input: root = [3,5,1,6,2,0,8,null,null,7,4], p = 5, q = 4 @@ -585,3 +583,102 @@ class Solution { } } ``` + + +### lc270 - Closest Binary Search Tree Value + +- difficulty: Easy +- tags: + - Tree + - Depth-First Search + - Binary Search Tree + - Binary Search + - Binary Tree +- https://leetcode.com/problems/closest-binary-search-tree-value + + +

Given the root of a binary search tree and a target value, return the value in the BST that is closest to the target. If there are multiple answers, print the smallest.

+ +

 

+

Example 1:

+ +![alt text](/img/algo_meta_top_100/image-6.png) + +
+Input: root = [4,2,5,1,3], target = 3.714286
+Output: 4
+
+ +

Example 2:

+ +
+Input: root = [1], target = 4.428571
+Output: 1
+
+ +

 

+

Constraints:

+ + + + +#### Solution 1: Recursion + +We define a recursive function `dfs(node)`, which starts from the current node `node` and finds the node closest to the target value `target`. We can update the answer by comparing the absolute difference between the current node's value and the target value. If the target value is less than the current node's value, we recursively search the left subtree; otherwise, we recursively search the right subtree. + +The time complexity is $O(n)$, and the space complexity is $O(n)$. Where $n$ is the number of nodes in the binary search tree. + +```java +class Solution { + private int ans; + private double target; + private double diff = Double.MAX_VALUE; + + public int closestValue(TreeNode root, double target) { + this.target = target; + dfs(root); + return ans; + } + + private void dfs(TreeNode node) { + if (node == null) { + return; + } + double nxt = Math.abs(node.val - target); + if (nxt < diff || (nxt == diff && node.val < ans)) { + diff = nxt; + ans = node.val; + } + node = target < node.val ? node.left : node.right; + dfs(node); + } +} +``` + +#### Solution 2: Iteration + +We can rewrite the recursive function in an iterative form, using a loop to simulate the recursive process. We start from the root node and check whether the absolute difference between the current node's value and the target value is less than the current minimum difference. If it is, we update the answer. Then, based on the size relationship between the target value and the current node's value, we decide to move to the left subtree or the right subtree. The loop ends when we traverse to a null node. + +The time complexity is $O(n)$, where $n$ is the number of nodes in the binary search tree. The space complexity is $O(1)$. + +```java +class Solution { + public int closestValue(TreeNode root, double target) { + int ans = root.val; + double diff = Double.MAX_VALUE; + while (root != null) { + double nxt = Math.abs(root.val - target); + if (nxt < diff || (nxt == diff && root.val < ans)) { + diff = nxt; + ans = root.val; + } + root = target < root.val ? root.left : root.right; + } + return ans; + } +} +``` \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/source/_posts/eng_youtube_john_mearsheimer_and_jeffrey_sachs_all_in_summit_2024.md b/source/_posts/eng_youtube_john_mearsheimer_and_jeffrey_sachs_all_in_summit_2024.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..d3cad2ff76 --- /dev/null +++ b/source/_posts/eng_youtube_john_mearsheimer_and_jeffrey_sachs_all_in_summit_2024.md @@ -0,0 +1,6205 @@ +--- +title: John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024 +date: 2024-12-15 23:09:06 +tags: +- English +categories: +- English +--- + + +# URL + +- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvFtyDy_Bt0 +- https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15H2EYeEKX/?spm_id_from=333.337.search-card.all.click&vd_source=8a83b38420b65ac33aa101b7754630f6 + + +# What is the Deep State Party and what are their goals? + + +1 +00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,240 +one of the most influential and +世界上最有影响力和 + +2 +00:00:02,240 --> 00:00:04,319 +controversial thinkers in the +争议性的思想家之一 + +3 +00:00:04,319 --> 00:00:06,960 +world he is known as one of the world's +他被认为是世界上 + +4 +00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:09,719 +leading experts on economic +经济 + +5 +00:00:09,719 --> 00:00:12,920 +development one of the most famous +发展方面的领先专家之一 历史上最著名的 + +6 +00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:14,200 +political +政治 + +7 +00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:17,440 +scientists in +学家之一 + +8 +00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,439 +history we're talking about moral and +我们在这里谈论的是道德和 + +9 +00:00:21,439 --> 00:00:23,240 +political principles here I would +政治原则 我 + +10 +00:00:23,240 --> 00:00:25,400 +suggest that all four Wars could be +建议所有四次战争 可能会 + +11 +00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,240 +ended quickly great power politics is +很快结束，大国政治 + +12 +00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,000 +now back on the table if we are anything +现在又回到了桌面上，如果我们 + +13 +00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:32,759 +as a world Community we have to +作为一个世界共同体，我们必须 + +14 +00:00:32,759 --> 00:00:35,100 +implement what we've +实施我们 + +15 +00:00:35,100 --> 00:00:36,060 +[Music] +[音乐] + +16 +00:00:36,060 --> 00:00:40,389 +[Applause] +[掌声] + +17 +00:00:44,039 --> 00:00:46,280 +said I'm excited for this panel we're +所说的事情，我对我们 + +18 +00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,399 +going to talk about foreign policy uh we +将要讨论的这个小组感到兴奋 外交政策呃我们 + +19 +00:00:48,399 --> 00:00:51,079 +have I think two of the most interesting +有我认为有两个 关于外交政策的最有趣的 + +20 +00:00:51,079 --> 00:00:53,760 +imminent renowned thinkers about foreign +即将到来的著名思想家 + +21 +00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,520 +policy uh professor John mimer from +呃，芝加哥大学的约翰·米默教授 + +22 +00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:57,879 +University of Chicago and Professor +和 + +23 +00:00:57,879 --> 00:01:00,359 +Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia so great to +哥伦比亚大学的杰弗里·萨克斯教授，很高兴 + +24 +00:01:00,359 --> 00:01:03,239 +have you guys here + +25 +00:01:03,559 --> 00:01:07,479 +today it's uh it's a it's a big world +今天你们能来到这里，呃，这是一个很大的世界 + +26 +00:01:07,479 --> 00:01:09,000 +and there's a lot of things happening so +，发生了很多事情，所以 + +27 +00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:11,200 +let's just jump into it um the big news +让我们来谈谈 + +28 +00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,560 +over the past week was that Dick Cheney +过去一周的大新闻是迪克·切尼 + +29 +00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,520 +endorsed kamla Harris for president I +支持卡姆拉·哈里斯竞选总统，我 + +30 +00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:18,759 +think for people who see the world in +认为对于那些从 + +31 +00:01:18,759 --> 00:01:20,400 +partisan political terms this might have +党派政治角度看待世界的人来说，这可能 + +32 +00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:22,240 +been surprising but I don't think that +会令人惊讶，但我不这么认为 认为 + +33 +00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:25,040 +you guys were that surprised by that do +你们对此感到惊讶吗， + +34 +00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,439 +you see an underlying logic to this um +你们看到这个的潜在逻辑了吗，嗯， + +35 +00:01:27,439 --> 00:01:30,079 +Jeff why don't I start with you +杰夫，我为什么不从你开始呢， + +36 +00:01:30,079 --> 00:01:32,960 +I think it's obvious there's basically +我认为很明显，基本上有 + +37 +00:01:32,960 --> 00:01:36,240 +one deep State party uh and that is the +一个深层的政党呃，那就是 + +38 +00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:40,200 +party of Cheney uh Harris Biden uh +切尼呃哈里斯·拜登呃维多利亚的政党 + +39 +00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,399 +Victoria newand my colleague at Columbia +我在哥伦比亚大学的同事纽安德 + +40 +00:01:42,399 --> 00:01:46,159 +University now uh and uh newand is kind +是 + +41 +00:01:46,159 --> 00:01:48,320 +of the face of all of this because she +这一切的代言人，因为她 + +42 +00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:50,920 +has been in every Administration for the +在过去 30 年里一直在每一届政府中任职， + +43 +00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:53,960 +last 30 years she was in the Clinton +她在克林顿 + +44 +00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,119 +Administration wrecking our policies +政府中破坏了我们 + +45 +00:01:56,119 --> 00:01:59,479 +towards Russia in the 1990s she was uh +对俄罗斯的政策 20 世纪 90 年代，她 + +46 +00:01:59,479 --> 00:02:03,880 +in the Bush Administration Jor uh with +在布什政府和 + +47 +00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,920 +Cheney uh wrecking our policies towards +切尼一起破坏了我们对 + +48 +00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:10,800 +NATO enlargement uh she was in uh then +北约东扩的政策，当时她在 + +49 +00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:14,360 +the Obama Administration as Hillary's uh +奥巴马政府，首先是希拉里的 + +50 +00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,080 +spokesperson first and then making a +发言人，然后 + +51 +00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,840 +coup in Ukraine in February 2014 not a +在 2014 年 2 月在乌克兰发动政变，这不是一个 + +52 +00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,000 +great move started a war then she was uh +伟大的举动，引发了战争 然后她是 + +53 +00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:28,080 +Biden's uh uh under Secretary of State +拜登的呃呃国务卿 + +54 +00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:32,400 +now that's both parties uh it's a a +现在是两党呃这是一个 + +55 +00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:36,360 +colossal mess and um she's been Cheney's +巨大的混乱，嗯她一直 切尼的 + +56 +00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,120 +uh adviser she's been Biden's advisor +呃顾问她一直是拜登的顾问 + +57 +00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:44,120 +she she uh and uh makes perfect sense +她她呃呃完全有道理 + +58 +00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:46,480 +this is the reality uh we're trying to +这是现实呃我们正在试图 + +59 +00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,159 +find out if there's another party that's +找出是否还有另一个政党是个 + +60 +00:02:48,159 --> 00:02:50,760 +the big question and John what's what's +大问题约翰你对此有何 + +61 +00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:51,879 +your thought on that do you see any +看法你认为 + +62 +00:02:51,879 --> 00:02:53,599 +difference between uh Republicans and +呃之间有什么区别 共和党和 + +63 +00:02:53,599 --> 00:02:55,640 +Democrats no I like to refer to the +民主党 不，我喜欢将 + +64 +00:02:55,640 --> 00:02:57,879 +Republicans and the Democrats as Tweedle +共和党和民主党称为 Tweedle + +65 +00:02:57,879 --> 00:03:01,800 +D and Tweedle du +D 和 Tweedle du + +66 +00:03:05,239 --> 00:03:07,000 +there's hardly any difference I actually +几乎没有任何区别 我实际上 + +67 +00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:09,760 +think the one exception is that uh +认为唯一的例外是 + +68 +00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:12,360 +former president Trump when he became +前总统特朗普 他 + +69 +00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,920 +president in 2017 was bent on beating +在 2017 年成为总统，一心想 + +70 +00:03:15,920 --> 00:03:18,319 +back to deep State and becoming a +击退深层国家，并成为 + +71 +00:03:18,319 --> 00:03:20,239 +different kind of leader on the foreign +外交政策方面不同类型的领导人， + +72 +00:03:20,239 --> 00:03:23,159 +policy front but he basically failed and +但他基本上失败了， + +73 +00:03:23,159 --> 00:03:26,239 +he is vowed that if he gets elected this +他发誓，如果他这次当选， + +74 +00:03:26,239 --> 00:03:28,840 +time uh it will be different and he will +呃，情况将会有所不同，他会 + +75 +00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,200 +beat back the Deep State he will pursue +反击 他将奉行 + +76 +00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:33,280 +a foreign policy that's fundamentally + +77 +00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:35,799 +different uh than Republicans and +与共和党和 + +78 +00:03:35,799 --> 00:03:38,200 +Democrats have pursued up to now and the +民主党迄今为止所奉行的外交政策根本不同的外交政策，摆 + +79 +00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,200 +big question on the table is whether or +在桌面上的一个大问题是 + +80 +00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,120 +not you think Trump can beat the Deep +你是否认为特朗普能够击败深层 + +81 +00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,720 +State and these two established parties +国家和这两个老牌政党 + +82 +00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,560 +uh and i' bet against Trump John um and +呃和我' 打赌反对 特朗普约翰嗯和 + +83 +00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:50,280 +Jeff but let's start with John can you +杰夫，但让我们从约翰开始，你真的能 + +84 +00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:53,319 +actually Define for us for me I don't +为我们定义一下吗？我不 + +85 +00:03:53,319 --> 00:03:54,680 +understand when people say deep State +明白当人们说深层状态是 + +86 +00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:56,280 +what it is I almost viewed the term +什么时，我几乎滑稽地看待这个词， + +87 +00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,079 +comically we have one of our friends in + +88 +00:03:58,079 --> 00:03:59,840 +our group chat who we called Deep state +我们的群聊中有一位朋友，我们称之为 深州 + +89 +00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:03,040 +who is he's deep State he's really in +是谁，他是深州，他真的处于 + +90 +00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,120 +the Deep state but we say it as a joke +深州，但我们说这是一个笑话， + +91 +00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,680 +but for maybe the uninitiated what does +但对于外行来说， + +92 +00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,079 +it actually mean what are their +这实际上意味着什么，他们的 + +93 +00:04:10,079 --> 00:04:12,400 +incentives who are +动机是什么，他们是谁， + +94 +00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,239 +they Jeff maybe you want to start or +杰夫，也许你想开始，或者 + +95 +00:04:14,239 --> 00:04:16,079 +John you want to start yeah I'll say a +约翰，你想开始，是的 我说 + +96 +00:04:16,079 --> 00:04:17,600 +few words about it when we talk about +几句话 当我们谈论 + +97 +00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:19,440 +the Deep State we're talking really +深州时，我们实际上谈论的 + +98 +00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,440 +about the administrative State it's very +是行政国家，了解这一点非常 + +99 +00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:24,400 +important to understand that starting in +重要：从 + +100 +00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:27,800 +the late 19th early 20th century uh +19 世纪末 20 世纪初开始， + +101 +00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,960 +given developments uh in the American +考虑到美国 + +102 +00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,880 +economy it was imperative that we +经济的发展，我们必须 + +103 +00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:35,800 +develop and this was true of all Western +发展，这是事实 在所有西方 + +104 +00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,840 +countries a very powerful Central State +国家中，有一个非常强大的中央国家， + +105 +00:04:38,840 --> 00:04:42,039 +that could run the country and over time +可以管理这个国家，随着时间的推移， + +106 +00:04:42,039 --> 00:04:45,520 +that state has grown in power and since +这个国家的权力不断增强， + +107 +00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,880 +World War II the United States as you +众所周知，自第二次世界大战以来，美国 + +108 +00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:49,960 +all know has been involved in every nook +一直参与到 + +109 +00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:51,960 +and cranny of the world fighting Wars +世界各地的战争中。 + +110 +00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,560 +Here There and Everywhere and to do that +和无处不在 要做到这一点， + +111 +00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,199 +you need a very powerful administrative +你需要一个非常强大的行政 + +112 +00:04:57,199 --> 00:05:00,240 +State uh that can help manage foreign +国家，可以帮助管理外交 + +113 +00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,600 +policy but in the process what happens +政策，但在这个过程中， + +114 +00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,680 +is you get all of these highlevel +你会得到所有这些高层 + +115 +00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:06,919 +bureaucrats middle level and lowlevel +官僚、中层和低层 + +116 +00:05:06,919 --> 00:05:09,520 +bureaucrats who become established in +官僚，他们 + +117 +00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:11,400 +positions in the Pentagon the state +在五角大楼、国务院、 + +118 +00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:13,440 +department the intelligence Community +情报部门任职 凡是 + +119 +00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,400 +you name it and they end up having a +你能想到的社区，他们最终都会 + +120 +00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,880 +vested interest in pursuing a particular +在追求特定的 + +121 +00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:22,319 +foreign policy and the particular +外交政策中获得既得利益，而 + +122 +00:05:22,319 --> 00:05:24,759 +foreign policy that they like to pursue +他们喜欢追求的特定外交政策 + +123 +00:05:24,759 --> 00:05:26,680 +is the one that the Democrats and the +正是民主党和 + +124 +00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,720 +Republicans are pushing and that's why +共和党正在推动的政策，这就是 + +125 +00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:31,639 +we talk about Tweedle D and Tweedle Dum +我们谈论 Tweedle D 和 Tweedle Dum + +126 +00:05:31,639 --> 00:05:33,479 +with regard to the two parties you could +关于两个政党，你可以 + +127 +00:05:33,479 --> 00:05:36,600 +throw in uh the Deep State as being on +把呃深州归为 + +128 +00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,800 +the same page as those other two uh +与其他两个呃机构在同一页面上是的， + +129 +00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,360 +institutions yeah there there's a very +有一个非常 + +130 +00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:44,520 +interesting interview of Putin uh in +有趣的普京呃在 2017 年在 Figuro 的采访， + +131 +00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:46,039 +figuro in + +132 +00:05:46,039 --> 00:05:49,400 +2017 and he says uh I've dealt with +他说呃我已经处理过 + +133 +00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:52,160 +three presidents now they come into +现在有三位总统，他们 + +134 +00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,520 +office with some ideas even but then uh +上任时也有一些想法，但后来呃， + +135 +00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,000 +the men in the dark suits and the blue +那些穿深色西装、打蓝色 + +136 +00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,160 +ties and then he said I I wear red ties +领带的人，然后他说我戴红色领带， + +137 +00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:03,479 +but they wear blue ties they come in and +但他们戴蓝色领带，他们进来 + +138 +00:06:03,479 --> 00:06:06,400 +explain the way the world really is and +解释一下方式 世界确实如此， + +139 +00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,120 +there go the ideas and I think that's +想法也随之而来，我认为这就是 + +140 +00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:11,479 +Putin's experience that's our experience +普京的经验，这是我们的经验， + +141 +00:06:11,479 --> 00:06:13,400 +that's my experience which is that +这是我的经验，那就是 + +142 +00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,919 +there's a deeply entrained foreign +有一种根深蒂固的外交 + +143 +00:06:15,919 --> 00:06:18,319 +policy it has been in place in my +政策，它在我的解释中已经存在了 + +144 +00:06:18,319 --> 00:06:20,880 +interpretation for many decades but +几十年，但 + +145 +00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,440 +arguably a variant of it has been in +可以说是它的一个变体 + +146 +00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:24,639 +place since +自 + +147 +00:06:24,639 --> 00:06:27,720 +1992 I got to watch some of it early on +1992 年以来，我很早就看到了其中的一些内容， + +148 +00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,039 +because I was an adviser to gorb and I +因为我是 gorb 的顾问， + +149 +00:06:30,039 --> 00:06:33,160 +was an adviser to yelson and so I saw +也是 yelson 的顾问，所以我看到了 + +150 +00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,319 +early makings of this though I didn't +它的早期制作，尽管我并不 + +151 +00:06:35,319 --> 00:06:38,360 +fully understand it except in retrospect +完全理解它 除了回想起来， + +152 +00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:42,120 +but that policy has been mostly in place +这项政策 + +153 +00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,160 +pretty consistently for 30 years and it +在过去30年里基本上一直在实施， + +154 +00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:45,840 +didn't really matter whether it was Bush + +155 +00:06:45,840 --> 00:06:48,039 +senior whether it was Clinton whether it +无论是老布什、克林顿、 + +156 +00:06:48,039 --> 00:06:50,840 +was Bush Jr whether it was Obama whether +小布什、奥巴马还是 + +157 +00:06:50,840 --> 00:06:53,080 +it was Trump after all who did Trump +特朗普，这并不重要，毕竟是谁干了特朗普 + +158 +00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:56,759 +hire he hired John Bolton well the uh +雇用他雇佣了约翰·博尔顿，嗯， + +159 +00:06:56,759 --> 00:07:00,000 +pretty deep State uh that was the end of +相当深的状态，嗯，这就是 + +160 +00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:01,520 +they told you know he explained this is +他们告诉你的结局，他解释了事情就是 + +161 +00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:03,440 +the way it is and by the way Bolton +这样，顺便说一句，博尔顿 + +162 +00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:06,000 +explained also in his Memoirs when when +也在他的回忆录中解释说，当 + +163 +00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:07,879 +Trump didn't agree we figured out ways +特朗普不同意时，我们想出了办法 + +164 +00:07:07,879 --> 00:07:10,120 +to trick him basically so well and what +基本上能很好地欺骗他 + +165 +00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:12,120 +what are their incentives is it war is +他们的动机是什么，是战争，是 + +166 +00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,560 +it self-enrichment is it power is it all +自我致富，是权力，这 + +167 +00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,720 +three is it some or is it yeah is it is +三个都是，还是有，是 + +168 +00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,639 +it just is there a philosophical +不是只是有哲学 + +169 +00:07:19,639 --> 00:07:22,080 +entrenchment or is it just this inertial +根深蒂固，还是只是 + +170 +00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,479 +issue that like once a policy begins +像政策一样的惯性问题 开始 + +171 +00:07:24,479 --> 00:07:27,280 +it's hard to change and the system's +很难改变，这个系统 + +172 +00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,000 +just working with 10,000 people working +只是与 10,000 个人一起努力 + +173 +00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:30,720 +towards it +实现它， + +174 +00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,240 +you know if I were lucky to sit next to +你知道，如果我幸运地坐在 + +175 +00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,759 +the world's greatest political +世界上最伟大的政治 + +176 +00:07:35,759 --> 00:07:39,120 +philosopher which I am um he'd give you +哲学家旁边，我就是，嗯，他会给你 + +177 +00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,479 +a good answer which is that the right +一个很好的答案 正确的 + +178 +00:07:41,479 --> 00:07:43,479 +answer which is if you want to interpret +答案是，如果你想解释 + +179 +00:07:43,479 --> 00:07:45,599 +American foreign policy it is to +美国的外交政策，那就是 + +180 +00:07:45,599 --> 00:07:49,879 +maximize power uh and uh he gives a John +权力最大化，呃，他给了约翰 + +181 +00:07:49,879 --> 00:07:52,879 +gives a an explanation of that we have +一个解释，我们有 + +182 +00:07:52,879 --> 00:07:55,680 +uh some differences but I think it's a +呃一些分歧，但我认为这是 + +183 +00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,159 +very good description of American uh +对美国的一个很好的描述，呃 + +184 +00:07:58,159 --> 00:08:00,039 +foreign policy which is is that it's +外交政策是，它 + +185 +00:08:00,039 --> 00:08:03,199 +trying to maximize Global power +试图最大化全球权力， + +186 +00:08:03,199 --> 00:08:07,240 +essentially to be Global hegemon I I +本质上是成为全球霸主，我 + +187 +00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,840 +think it could get us all killed this is +认为这可能会让我们所有人都被杀，这是 + +188 +00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:11,479 +because it's a little bit delusional in +因为这在 + +189 +00:08:11,479 --> 00:08:15,240 +my mind but uh not not the I not not his +我看来有点妄想，但呃不是我不是他对 + +190 +00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:17,360 +interpretation of their idea but the +他们想法的解释，而是 + +191 +00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:18,879 +fact that they hold that idea is a +事实 他们持有这个想法 + +192 +00:08:18,879 --> 00:08:21,280 +little weird to me but in any event +对我来说有点奇怪，但无论如何， + +193 +00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,280 +that's the idea and every time a +这就是这个想法，每次做出 + +194 +00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:27,960 +decision comes inside that I've seen I'm +决定时，我都看到我是 + +195 +00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,199 +an economist so I don't see security +一名经济学家，所以我不会以 + +196 +00:08:30,199 --> 00:08:32,320 +decisions the same way but every +同样的方式看待安全决策，但每一个 + +197 +00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,880 +decision that I've seen always leans in +决定都是 我看到 + +198 +00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:38,120 +the same direction for the last 30 years +过去30年总是朝着同一个方向倾斜， + +199 +00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:42,080 +which is power as the central objective +即以权力为中心目标， + +200 +00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,680 +so Clinton faced an internal +所以克林顿面临着一场内部 + +201 +00:08:45,680 --> 00:08:49,680 +cabinate really debate should NATO be +内阁辩论，北约是否应该 + +202 +00:08:49,680 --> 00:08:52,200 +enlarged is this this is a post Cold War +扩大，这是冷战后的 + +203 +00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,680 +phenomenon that it's well I'll I'll let +现象，这很好，我会的 让 + +204 +00:08:54,680 --> 00:08:57,000 +John take that just two very quick +约翰拿走那两个 非常简短的 + +205 +00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,040 +points first of all I do believe that +观点首先，我确实相信 + +206 +00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,880 +the people people who uh are in favor of +那些支持 + +207 +00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:06,279 +this foreign policy uh do believe in it +这项外交政策的人确实相信它， + +208 +00:09:06,279 --> 00:09:08,680 +it's not cynical they really believe +这并不愤世嫉俗，他们真的相信 + +209 +00:09:08,680 --> 00:09:10,240 +that we're doing the right thing I've +我们正在做正确的事情，我 + +210 +00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,360 +met them yeah no yeah the second point I +见过他们是的，不，是的 我 + +211 +00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,040 +would make to you and this sort of adds +要向你提出的第二点是 + +212 +00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,760 +on to what Jeff said Jeff said power has +对杰夫所说的补充，杰夫说权力 + +213 +00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,399 +a lot to do with this and is a good +与此有很大关系，他是一个很好的 + +214 +00:09:18,399 --> 00:09:20,519 +realist I of course believe that but +现实主义者，我当然相信这一点，但 + +215 +00:09:20,519 --> 00:09:22,160 +it's also very important to understand +了解美国是一个非常重要的点 + +216 +00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:23,399 +that the United States is a + +217 +00:09:23,399 --> 00:09:25,839 +fundamentally liberal country and we +基本上是自由的国家，我们 + +218 +00:09:25,839 --> 00:09:28,360 +believe that we have a right we have a +相信我们 我们有权利，我们有 + +219 +00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,880 +responsibility and we have the power to +责任，我们有能力 + +220 +00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,680 +run around the world and remake the +环游世界，按照 + +221 +00:09:33,680 --> 00:09:36,399 +world in America's image most people in +美国的形象重塑世界。外交政策制定者中的大多数人， + +222 +00:09:36,399 --> 00:09:38,079 +the foreign policy establishment the + +223 +00:09:38,079 --> 00:09:40,200 +Republican Party the Democratic party +共和党，民主党， + +224 +00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,680 +they believe that and that is what has +他们相信，这就是 + +225 +00:09:42,680 --> 00:09:45,519 +motivated our foreign policy in large +我们外交政策的动力 + +226 +00:09:45,519 --> 00:09:48,360 +part since the Cold War ended because +很大程度上是自冷战结束以来，因为 + +227 +00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,519 +remember when the cold war ends we have +请记住，当冷战结束时，我们将 + +228 +00:09:50,519 --> 00:09:53,760 +no rival great power left so what are we +不再有竞争对手的强大力量，所以我们将如何 + +229 +00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:55,320 +going to do with all this power that we +利用我们拥有的所有这些力量， + +230 +00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,519 +have what we decide to do is go out and +我们决定做的是走出去， + +231 +00:09:58,519 --> 00:10:01,640 +remake the world in our own image so +用我们自己的方式重塑世界 图像所以 + +232 +00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:03,399 +that's a that's a values point of view +这是一个价值观的观点 + +233 +00:10:03,399 --> 00:10:05,320 +though right that there are values that +尽管 + +234 +00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:07,640 +they hold dear that that many do hold +他们所珍视的价值观是正确的，许多人确实珍视 + +235 +00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:09,240 +dear that + +236 +00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,399 +liberalism democracy does ultimately I +自由主义民主最终确实如此，但我 + +237 +00:10:12,399 --> 00:10:14,120 +believe I've heard this reduce conflict +相信我听说这可以减少 + +238 +00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:15,640 +worldwide that there's an importance +世界范围内的冲突，这是自二战以来 + +239 +00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,519 +that we've never seen two democratic +我们从未见过的两个民主 + +240 +00:10:18,519 --> 00:10:22,160 +nations since World War II go to war and +国家的重要性 战争， + +241 +00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:24,959 +that there's a reason why we want to see +我们希望看到 + +242 +00:10:24,959 --> 00:10:28,120 +liberalism kind of breed throughout the +自由主义在世界各地滋生是有原因的， + +243 +00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,120 +world and it's our responsib ability for +这是我们对 + +244 +00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:31,880 +world for Global Peace to make that a +全球和平世界的责任能力， + +245 +00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,279 +mandate let me step in for one moment +让我介入一会儿， + +246 +00:10:34,279 --> 00:10:36,360 +okay sure very quickly and by the way +好吧，当然很快，顺便说一句， + +247 +00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:39,000 +I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm uh what do you call +我' 我是我是 我是，呃，你怎么称呼 + +248 +00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:40,680 +it where you pull the spirits of the the +它，你拉动了 + +249 +00:10:40,680 --> 00:10:42,240 +voice of others but I'm I'm just trying +他人声音的精神，但我是，我只是 + +250 +00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,160 +to channeling channeling that's the word +想通灵，通灵，这就是 + +251 +00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,959 +I want to be very clear I am forever +我想非常清楚的词，我永远 + +252 +00:10:46,959 --> 00:10:48,720 +thankful that I was born in a liberal +感激我 我出生在自由 + +253 +00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:51,440 +democracy and I love liberalism but the +民主国家，我热爱自由主义，但 + +254 +00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:53,760 +question here is do you think that we +问题是你认为我们 + +255 +00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,120 +can run around the world imposing +可以在世界各地将 + +256 +00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,440 +liberal democracy on other countries and +自由民主强加于其他国家，并且在 + +257 +00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:01,920 +some cases shoving it down their throat +某些情况下将其强加到他们的喉咙上，用 + +258 +00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,399 +doing it at the end of a rifle barrel +步枪枪管末端这样做吗？ + +259 +00:11:04,399 --> 00:11:06,519 +and my argument is that's almost +争论是这几乎是 + +260 +00:11:06,519 --> 00:11:08,600 +impossible to do it almost always +不可能的 这样做几乎总是 + +261 +00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,040 +backfires think Iraq Afghanistan so +适得其反，想想伊拉克、阿富汗 + +262 +00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,000 +forth and so on and secondly you begin +等等，其次，你开始 + +263 +00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:17,079 +to erode liberalism in the United States +侵蚀美国的自由主义， + +264 +00:11:17,079 --> 00:11:19,880 +because you build a deep state right and +因为你建立了深厚的国家权利， + +265 +00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:21,519 +you want to understand that a lot of the +你想了解 + +266 +00:11:21,519 --> 00:11:24,079 +complaints here about cracking down on +这里有很多关于镇压 + +267 +00:11:24,079 --> 00:11:26,560 +freedom of speech and so forth and so on +自由的抱怨。 演讲等等都与 + +268 +00:11:26,560 --> 00:11:28,320 +are related to the fact that we have +我们有 + +269 +00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,000 +this ambitious foreign policy those two +雄心勃勃的外交政策这一事实有关，这两 + +270 +00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:32,959 +things go together in very important +件事以非常重要的方式结合在一起， + +271 +00:11:32,959 --> 00:11:36,000 +ways what an let me let me disagree just +让我让我有点不同意， + +272 +00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:39,480 +a bit uh because we agree actually on +呃，因为我们实际上在行为上达成了一致 + +273 +00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:42,240 +the behavior and I've learned I'd say +，我已经 我知道我会 + +274 +00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,120 +most of that from you that it's power +从你那里说大部分 + +275 +00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:50,040 +seeking truly John in my work 40 years +约翰在我的工作中真正追求权力40年 + +276 +00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:52,639 +uh overseas I don't think the US +呃海外我不认为美国 + +277 +00:11:52,639 --> 00:11:54,160 +government gives a damn about these +政府关心这些 + +278 +00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:56,360 +other places I I don't think they really +其他地方我不认为他们真的 + +279 +00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,360 +care if it's a liberal democracy if it's +关心这是一个自由民主国家还是 + +280 +00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:00,200 +a dictatorship they want the right of +一个独裁国家他们想要的权利 + +281 +00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,079 +ways they want the military bases they +他们想要军事基地的方式，他们 + +282 +00:12:03,079 --> 00:12:06,240 +want uh the state to be in support of +想要呃国家支持 + +283 +00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,200 +the United States they want NATO +美国，他们想要北约 + +284 +00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:10,800 +enlargement I don't I know You' you've +东扩，我不知道，我知道你 + +285 +00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,639 +written and there are some who believe +写的，有些人相信 + +286 +00:12:13,639 --> 00:12:15,000 +in stateb +国家 + +287 +00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,880 +building God if they do they are so +如果这样做的话就会建立上帝 太 + +288 +00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:20,320 +incompetent it's +无能了，令人 + +289 +00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:23,000 +unbelievable +难以置信， + +290 +00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,560 +but Professor s know I I'll give you an +但教授知道我， + +291 +00:12:25,560 --> 00:12:27,800 +example if I put just one one +如果我只举一个 + +292 +00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,480 +example I'm I'm a friend with one of the +例子，我会给你举一个例子，我是我的朋友，我是美国学术界 + +293 +00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:32,720 +only +唯一一位 + +294 +00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,360 +PhD Afghani Economist senior person in +阿富汗经济学家高级博士生之一。 + +295 +00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:41,000 +the US um Academia over the last 30 +30 + +296 +00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,959 +years you would think that the state +年来，你会认为 + +297 +00:12:43,959 --> 00:12:45,680 +department if they were interested in +国务院如果对 + +298 +00:12:45,680 --> 00:12:49,320 +State Building would ask him one day one +国家大厦感兴趣，有一天会问他， + +299 +00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,399 +moment something about Afghanistan never +关于阿富汗的事情从来没有 + +300 +00:12:52,399 --> 00:12:54,519 +happened never happened not even one +发生过，从来没有发生过，甚至一个 + +301 +00:12:54,519 --> 00:12:57,279 +question never happened he asked me can +问题都没有发生过，他问我 + +302 +00:12:57,279 --> 00:12:59,360 +you get me a a meeting with the +你能让我和国务院会面吗？ + +303 +00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,560 +department they were completely +我们完全 + +304 +00:13:01,560 --> 00:13:05,320 +uninterested this is this is about power +不感兴趣，这是关于权力的， + +305 +00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,360 +you're too idealistic +你太理想主义了， + +306 +00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,079 +John they don't care about the other +约翰，他们不关心其他 + +307 +00:13:11,079 --> 00:13:14,839 +places they may feel we should be +地方，他们可能觉得我们应该成为 + +308 +00:13:14,839 --> 00:13:17,639 +whatever we want free and so forth but +任何我们想要的自由等等，但 + +309 +00:13:17,639 --> 00:13:20,519 +Freedom I've been I've seen my with my +我一直在自由，我已经看到了我的 + +310 +00:13:20,519 --> 00:13:23,360 +own eyes the coups the overthrows the +亲眼所见，政变，推翻 + +311 +00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,880 +presidents democratic presidents LED +总统，民主总统，被 + +312 +00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,639 +away they don't care at all this is +带走，他们根本不在乎，这是 + +313 +00:13:28,639 --> 00:13:29,959 +Washington +华盛顿， + +314 +00:13:29,959 --> 00:13:34,160 +be a realist come on Professor mimer +是一个现实主义者，来吧，米默教授， + + +# Should America leverage its power against dictators? + + +315 +00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,639 +I when we talk about power um there are +当我们谈论权力时， + +316 +00:13:37,639 --> 00:13:39,480 +other people in the world who are trying +世界上还有其他人试图 + +317 +00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:41,079 +to accumulate power we live in a +积累权力，我们 生活在 + +318 +00:13:41,079 --> 00:13:43,320 +multi-polar world right now and they +多极世界 现在，他们 + +319 +00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,360 +have in some cases very nefarious or bad +在某些情况下有非常邪恶或恶意的 + +320 +00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:49,000 +intent um and they do not have democracy +意图，嗯，他们没有民主， + +321 +00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,920 +so it's one thing to you know tell uh +所以这是一回事，告诉 + +322 +00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:54,880 +people in Afghanistan you need to evolve +阿富汗人民，你需要发展， + +323 +00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:56,680 +you know to be a perfect democracy like +你知道要成为像我们这里一样的完美民主国家 + +324 +00:13:56,680 --> 00:13:58,279 +the one we have here I think we all +我想我们都 + +325 +00:13:58,279 --> 00:14:01,440 +agree that's unrealistic and insane um +同意这是不现实的、疯狂的， + +326 +00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,040 +and not practical but what about the +也不切实际，但是 + +327 +00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,079 +free countries of the world uniting +世界上的自由国家 + +328 +00:14:06,079 --> 00:14:08,480 +together to stop dictators from invading +联合起来阻止独裁者入侵 + +329 +00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:10,720 +other free countries is that Noble is +其他自由国家呢？高尚的是 + +330 +00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:12,839 +that a good use of power and a good +权力的良好运用和 + +331 +00:14:12,839 --> 00:14:16,440 +framework for America to evolve too no I +美国发展的良好框架 太不，我 + +332 +00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,600 +don't think so uh I think that what the +不这么认为呃我认为 + +333 +00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:21,680 +United States should do is worry about +美国应该做的是担心 + +334 +00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,240 +its own National interest uh in some +自己的国家利益呃在某些 + +335 +00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:26,560 +cases that's going to involve aligning +情况下这将涉及到 + +336 +00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:29,759 +ourselves with a dictator uh if we're +与独裁者结盟呃如果我们 + +337 +00:14:29,759 --> 00:14:31,720 +fighting World War II all over again +再次进行第二次世界大战 + +338 +00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:33,360 +it's December 8th +现在是 1941 年 12 月 8 日， + +339 +00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:36,040 +1941 you surely would be in favor of +你肯定会赞成 + +340 +00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:38,320 +allying with adol not with Adolf Hitler +与阿道夫·希特勒结盟，而不是与阿道夫·希特勒、 + +341 +00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,120 +with Joseph Stalin and the Soviet Union +约瑟夫·斯大林和苏联结盟， + +342 +00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:44,279 +against uh Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany +反对呃阿道夫·希特勒和纳粹德国， + +343 +00:14:44,279 --> 00:14:46,079 +sometimes you have to make those kind of +有时你必须做出这些 + +344 +00:14:46,079 --> 00:14:48,399 +compromises uh as I said before I love +妥协 呃，正如我之前说过的，我热爱 + +345 +00:14:48,399 --> 00:14:50,360 +liberal democracy I have no problem +自由民主，我 + +346 +00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,800 +align with liberal democracy but when +对自由民主的看法没有问题，但是当 + +347 +00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:54,440 +you begin to think in the terms that +你开始用 + +348 +00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,920 +you're thinking you end up uh with an +你认为的术语思考时，你最终会产生一种 + +349 +00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,199 +Impulse to do social engineering around +在世界各地进行社会工程的冲动， + +350 +00:15:00,199 --> 00:15:01,959 +the world and that gets you in all sorts +这会让你参与其中 各种各样 + +351 +00:15:01,959 --> 00:15:04,759 +of problems well what I'm proposing is +的问题，我的建议是， + +352 +00:15:04,759 --> 00:15:07,199 +when dictatorships invade other +当独裁政权入侵其他 + +353 +00:15:07,199 --> 00:15:09,399 +countries then we take action it depends +国家时，我们会采取行动，这取决于 + +354 +00:15:09,399 --> 00:15:11,560 +maybe def defend them so it depends yeah +可能保卫他们，所以这取决于，是的， + +355 +00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:15,160 +of course I mean when Russia invades +当然，我的意思是，当俄罗斯入侵 + +356 +00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,600 +Ukraine basically what you're saying is +乌克兰时，基本上你所说的是 + +357 +00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,880 +you want to go to war on behalf of +你想去 代表 + +358 +00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,000 +Ukraine against Russia are you in favor +乌克兰对俄罗斯发动战争 你是否赞成 + +359 +00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:25,399 +of that no I would say diplomacy would +这一点？不，我想说，外交 + +360 +00:15:25,399 --> 00:15:27,040 +obviously be what we'd want to exhaust +显然是我们想要用尽的办法， + + +## China, Russia and America + +361 +00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,199 +but if they do roll into other fre +但如果它们确实进入其他自由 + +362 +00:15:29,199 --> 00:15:30,560 +countries I think there's an argument +国家，我认为 + +363 +00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:31,880 +for the free countries of the world to +世界上的自由国家有理由 + +364 +00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:33,720 +get together and say two dictators we're +聚集在一起，说我们两个独裁者 “我 + +365 +00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,040 +not going to allow +不会允许 + +366 +00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,240 +this could I come in +这种情况发生，我可以 + +367 +00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,440 +here could I clarify a few +进来吗？我可以澄清一些 + +368 +00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:49,959 +things look uh first of all +事情吗？首先， + +369 +00:15:49,959 --> 00:15:53,639 +um almost all the time that we intervene +嗯，我们干预的几乎所有时间都是 + +370 +00:15:53,639 --> 00:15:57,800 +it's because uh we view this as a power +因为呃，我们认为这是 + +371 +00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,839 +situation for the us so whether it's +美国的权力状况，所以无论是 + +372 +00:16:00,839 --> 00:16:04,720 +Ukraine or Syria or Libya or other +乌克兰还是叙利亚 或利比亚或 其他 + +373 +00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:09,279 +places even if we Define it as defending +地方，即使我们将其定义为捍卫某些 + +374 +00:16:09,279 --> 00:16:11,720 +something believe me it's not about +东西，相信我，这不是 + +375 +00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:13,399 +defending something it's about a +捍卫某些东西，而是关于 + +376 +00:16:13,399 --> 00:16:16,600 +perception of us power and US interest +美国力量和美国利益的看法， + +377 +00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:21,120 +and it's in objectives of us Global +它是美国全球霸权的目标， + +378 +00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,560 +hegemony and if we analyze the Ukraine +如果我们分析乌克兰 + +379 +00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,480 +conflict uh just even a little bit below +冲突，呃，甚至比我们的目标低一点点 + +380 +00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:29,560 +the surface this is not a a conflict +表面上这不是一场 + +381 +00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,240 +about Putin invading Ukraine this is +关于普京入侵乌克兰的冲突，这是一个 + +382 +00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,600 +something a lot different that has to do +非常不同的事情， + +383 +00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,440 +with American power projection into the +与美国 + +384 +00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,839 +former Soviet Union so it's completely +向前苏联的力量投射有关，所以 + +385 +00:16:39,839 --> 00:16:45,319 +different second if we decide were the +如果我们决定是警察的话，那就完全不同了， + +386 +00:16:45,319 --> 00:16:47,759 +police which we + +387 +00:16:47,759 --> 00:16:52,000 +do you can't imagine how cynical +你无法想象如何 + +388 +00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:56,759 + we use to justify our actions +我们用愤世嫉俗的废话来为我们的行动辩护 + +389 +00:16:56,759 --> 00:16:59,560 +we used the cynical B that +我们用愤世嫉俗的B废话说我们 + +390 +00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,639 +we're defending the people of Benghazi +正在保卫班加西人民 + +391 +00:17:02,639 --> 00:17:05,240 +to bomb the hell out of Libya to kill +轰炸利比亚以杀死 + +392 +00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,919 +moamar Gaddafi why did we do that well +卡扎菲 为什么我们做得这么好 + +393 +00:17:08,919 --> 00:17:11,039 +I'm kind of an expert on that region and +我是该地区的专家 + +394 +00:17:11,039 --> 00:17:13,799 +I can tell you maybe because sarosi +我可以告诉你，也许因为萨罗西 + +395 +00:17:13,799 --> 00:17:16,839 +didn't like Gaddafi there's no much +不喜欢卡扎菲， + +396 +00:17:16,839 --> 00:17:19,280 +deeper reason except Hillary liked every +除了希拉里喜欢她能得到的每一次爆炸事件之外，没有什么更深层次的原因， + +397 +00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,799 +bombing she could get her hands on and +而 + +398 +00:17:21,799 --> 00:17:24,119 +Obama was kind of convinced my secretary +奥巴马有点相信我的 + +399 +00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:26,039 +of state says go with it so why don't we +国务卿所说的去吧 那么我们为什么不 + +400 +00:17:26,039 --> 00:17:28,240 +go with the NATO Expedition it had +加入北约远征军呢？它 + +401 +00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,919 +nothing to do with Libya it un it +与利比亚没有任何关系。它 + +402 +00:17:30,919 --> 00:17:34,640 +Unleashed 15 years of chaos cheated the +释放了15年的混乱，欺骗了 + +403 +00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:36,640 +UN Security Council because like +联合国安理会，因为就像 + +404 +00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,400 +everything else we've done it was on +我们所做的其他一切一样，这都是 + +405 +00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,760 +false pretenses we did the same with +虚假的借口，我们对利比亚也做了同样的事情。 + +406 +00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,360 +trying to overthrow Syria we did the + +407 +00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:46,360 +same with conspiring to overthrow Victor + +408 +00:17:46,360 --> 00:17:50,440 +yanukovich in Ukraine in February 2014 +2014 年 2 月，我们在试图推翻叙利亚时也做了同样的事情，密谋推翻了乌克兰的维克多·亚努科维奇， + +409 +00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,080 +so the problem with this argument is +所以这个论点的问题是 + +410 +00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:55,720 +we're not nice guys we're not trying to +我们不是好人，我们不是在试图 + +411 +00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,600 +save the world we're not trying to make +拯救我们正在做的世界。 我们不是想建立 + +412 +00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,320 +democracies +民主国家， + +413 +00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,280 +we had a committee by the way of all the +我们有一个由 + +414 +00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,640 +luminaries you could mention but they're +你可以提到的所有名人组成的委员会，但他们是 + +415 +00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:06,480 +The neocon Crazies but they're +新保守派的疯子，但他们是 + +416 +00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,840 +luminaries the committee for the people + +417 +00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:09,960 +of + +418 +00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,760 +Cheta are you kidding do you think they +切塔人民委员会的名人，你开玩笑吧，你认为他们 + +419 +00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,240 +even knew where chn is or cared about +甚至知道 chn 在哪里吗？ 或者关心 + +420 +00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,320 +Chia but it was an opportunity to get at +Chia，但这是一个进入 + +421 +00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:21,640 +Russia to weaken Russia to support a +俄罗斯的机会，削弱俄罗斯，支持 + +422 +00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,320 +jihadist movement inside Russia to do +俄罗斯境内的圣战运动， + +423 +00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,919 +this is a game but it's the game that +这是一场游戏，但 + +424 +00:18:26,919 --> 00:18:29,039 +John has described better than any one +约翰比世界上任何一个游戏都描述得更好， + +425 +00:18:29,039 --> 00:18:32,000 +in the world it's a game of power it's +这是一场游戏 权力游戏， + +426 +00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:33,919 +not that we're defending real things if +我们并不是在捍卫真实的事物，如果 + +427 +00:18:33,919 --> 00:18:36,760 +you want to defend real things go to the +你想捍卫真实的事物，就去 + +428 +00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,120 +UN Security Council and convince others +联合国安理会并说服其他国家， + +429 +00:18:39,120 --> 00:18:40,760 +because the other countries are not +因为其他国家并不 + +430 +00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,360 +crazy and they don't want Mayhem in the +疯狂，他们不希望世界出现混乱， + +431 +00:18:43,360 --> 00:18:46,320 +world but we play game so they say +但我们玩游戏，所以 他们说 + +432 +00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,000 +that's a game Iraq which was obviously a +那是一场伊拉克比赛，显然是 + +433 +00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,559 +game before we went in it was a +我们参加之前的一场比赛，显然那天是一场比赛， + +434 +00:18:51,559 --> 00:18:53,360 +obviously Co and Powell could not move +鲍威尔在 + +435 +00:18:53,360 --> 00:18:56,360 +his lips without lying that day +不撒谎的情况下就无法移动他的嘴唇， + +436 +00:18:56,360 --> 00:18:59,159 +obviously and so they said no but if +所以他们说不，但如果 + +437 +00:18:59,159 --> 00:19:01,440 +we're real about our interests then you +我们真正关心我们的利益，那么你 + +438 +00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,320 +go to the UN Security Council and then +就去 联合国安理会，然后 + +439 +00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,080 +it's not just on us it's actually then a +这不仅仅是 对我们来说，这实际上是一个 + +440 +00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,919 +collective security issue uh Professor M +集体安全问题呃M教授 + +441 +00:19:08,919 --> 00:19:11,039 +if we were to take Jeffrey's position +如果我们采取杰弗里的立场的话 + +442 +00:19:11,039 --> 00:19:13,640 +here um that we are exerting power for +我们正在施加权力是 + +443 +00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:16,480 +the sake of you know our reputation and +为了你知道我们的声誉， + +444 +00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,480 +in fact to weaken dictatorships if I'm +事实上是为了削弱独裁统治如果我是的话 + +445 +00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,640 +if I'm summarizing correctly here um is +如果我总结正确的话 嗯， + +446 +00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,720 +that not a good strategy to weaken +这不是一个削弱 + +447 +00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,520 +dictators around the world who might +世界各地可能 + +448 +00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,880 +like to invade other countries is there +想要入侵其他国家的独裁者的好策略，是否 + +449 +00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:29,600 +is there a frame Fring in which you +有一个框架Fring，在其中你 + +450 +00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,400 +could see that being um for you know a +可以看到，嗯，因为你知道一个 + +451 +00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:36,000 +world where democracy and people living +民主和人民自由生活的世界 + +452 +00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,120 +freely has gone down in our lifetimes is +已经消失了 在我们有生之年， + +453 +00:19:39,120 --> 00:19:41,240 +that not knowable is there not a +不知道是否 + +454 +00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:42,559 +justification somebody could make for +有人可以为之辩解， + +455 +00:19:42,559 --> 00:19:43,880 +I'm not saying I have that but I'm just +我并不是说我有这个，但我只是 + +456 +00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:45,320 +trying to steal me on the other side of +想偷走我的另一面， + +457 +00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,520 +this is weakening dictators and despots +这正在削弱独裁者和暴君，这是 + +458 +00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,720 +a good strategy it depends uh well let's +一个好的策略，这取决于 呃，让我们 + +459 +00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,760 +talk about the the two that we have you +谈谈我们所 + +460 +00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:56,200 +know uh Xi Jinping I think you wanted to +知道的两个人，呃，习近平，我认为你 + +461 +00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,240 +get to eventually and then Ukraine and +最终想要接触到乌克兰和 + +462 +00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:02,080 +Putin are these people worth trying to +普京，这些人值得尝试， + +463 +00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,919 +you know uh contain or even weaken well +你知道，呃，在中国方面，我想很好地遏制甚至削弱我 + +464 +00:20:04,919 --> 00:20:07,799 +in in terms of China I'm fully in favor +。 我完全赞成 + +465 +00:20:07,799 --> 00:20:10,360 +of containing China okay so containment +遏制中国好吧，遏制 + +466 +00:20:10,360 --> 00:20:12,280 +check it's containment I'm not +检查就是遏制，我 + +467 +00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,919 +interested in regime change I'm not +对政权更迭不感兴趣，我 + +468 +00:20:14,919 --> 00:20:17,640 +interested in trying to turn China into +对试图将中国变成 + +469 +00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,600 +a democracy not going to happen yeah not +民主国家不感兴趣，这不会发生，是的，不会 + +470 +00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,880 +going to happen we tried it actually and +发生，我们实际上尝试过， + +471 +00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:23,919 +I thought it was foolish to even pursue +我认为这样做是愚蠢的 甚至在俄罗斯方面 + +472 +00:20:23,919 --> 00:20:26,240 +a policy of Engagement toward China with +奉行与中国接触的政策 + +473 +00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,360 +regard to Russia I don't think Russia is +我不认为俄罗斯 + +474 +00:20:28,360 --> 00:20:30,640 +a serious threat to the United States +对美国构成严重威胁 + +475 +00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,640 +and indeed I think the United States +事实上我认为美国 + +476 +00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,000 +should have good relations with Putin +应该与普京保持良好关系 + +477 +00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:38,520 +it's a remarkably foolish policy to push +将他推入怀抱是一个非常愚蠢的政策 + +478 +00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:40,960 +him into the arms of the Chinese there +中国人中 + +479 +00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,120 +are three great powers in the system the +有三个 体系中的大 + +480 +00:20:43,120 --> 00:20:45,960 +United States China and Russia China is +国 美国、中国和俄罗斯 中国是 + +481 +00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,039 +a peer competitor to the United States +美国的同等竞争对手， + +482 +00:20:48,039 --> 00:20:49,720 +it's the most serious threat to the +它对美国构成最严重的威胁 + +483 +00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,000 +United States Russia is the weakest of +俄罗斯是 + +484 +00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,039 +those three great powers and it's not a +这三个大国中最弱的一个， + +485 +00:20:54,039 --> 00:20:56,840 +serious threat to us if you are playing +如果你在玩的话，它对我们来说不是一个严重的威胁 + +486 +00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:58,760 +balance and power politics and you're +平衡和强权政治， + +487 +00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:00,760 +interested as the United States in +作为美国，你有兴趣 + +488 +00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,640 +containing China you want Russia on your +遏制中国，你希望俄罗斯站在你这 + +489 +00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,159 +side of the Ledger but what we have done +一边，但我们实际上所做的 + +490 +00:21:06,159 --> 00:21:09,320 +in effect is we have pushed Russia into +是，我们把俄罗斯推入了 + +491 +00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,279 +the arms of the Chinese this is a +中国人的怀抱，这是一项 + +492 +00:21:11,279 --> 00:21:13,120 +remarkably foolish policy and +非常愚蠢的政策， + +493 +00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:15,200 +furthermore by getting bogged down in +此外通过得到 陷入 + +494 +00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,679 +Ukraine and now bogged down in the +乌克兰困境，现在又陷入 + +495 +00:21:17,679 --> 00:21:20,720 +Middle East it's become very difficult +中东困境， + +496 +00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,039 +for us to Pivot to Asia to deal with +我们很难转向亚洲来应对 + +497 +00:21:23,039 --> 00:21:25,440 +China which is the principal threat that +中国，这是我们面临的主要威胁 + +498 +00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,380 +we face + +499 +00:21:27,380 --> 00:21:31,840 +[Applause] +[掌声] + +500 +00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:33,520 +can I +我 + +501 +00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:37,200 +think David could I just say uh 2/3 +想大卫我可以说呃2/3 + +502 +00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:38,240 +right +对吗 + +503 +00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:42,600 +perfect so you gave him a b or B plus a +完美，所以你给他一个 b 或 B 加一个 + +504 +00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:44,840 +minus I always give him an A minus +减 我总是给他一个 A 减去 + + +# The China threat: avoiding escalatory to nuclear war + +505 +00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:46,840 +inflation I just wanted to add a +通货膨胀 我只是想添加一个 + +506 +00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,799 +footnote which is that China's also not +脚注，中国也不是 + +507 +00:21:48,799 --> 00:21:49,520 +a + +508 +00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,480 +threat it's just not a threat I mean +威胁，它只是不是威胁 我的意思是 + +509 +00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,320 +we're going to get to it ch ch China +我们会解决这个问题 ch ch 中国 + +510 +00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,400 +China's a market it's uh got great food +中国是一个市场，它有很棒的食物， + +511 +00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,400 +great culture uh wonderful people a +很棒的文化，很棒的人民， + +512 +00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:02,760 +civilization 10 times older than ours +比我们古老十倍的 + +513 +00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:04,400 +it's not a threat well as an economist + +514 +00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:08,240 +can you talk about the impact of a cold + +515 +00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,520 +or hot conflict with China from an + +516 +00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:11,880 +economic perspective given the trade +文明，这不是一个威胁，作为一个经济学家，你能从经济角度谈谈与中国的冷热冲突的影响吗？ 贸易 + +517 +00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,240 +relationship yeah it would wreck +关系是的，它会破坏 + +518 +00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,279 +California for one thing it would +加州，它会 + +519 +00:22:15,279 --> 00:22:17,039 +destroy the economy that you guys are + +520 +00:22:17,039 --> 00:22:19,840 +making completely this economy has been +彻底摧毁你们正在创造的经济，这个经济可能是 + +521 +00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,000 +the biggest beneficiary of China's rise +中国崛起的最大受益者， + +522 +00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,600 +probably in the whole world so it's +可能是全世界的，所以 + +523 +00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,520 +crazy maybe if you're worried if you're +如果你是的话，这可能是疯狂的 担心如果你 + +524 +00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:30,000 +really worried about about whether uh a +真的担心 + +525 +00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,919 +worker in Ohio has a particular job on a +俄亥俄州的一名工人是否在特定的装配线上从事特定的工作 + +526 +00:22:32,919 --> 00:22:35,520 +particular assembly line then uh you can +那么你可能 + +527 +00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,919 +be anti-china if you're worried about +会反华如果你担心 + +528 +00:22:37,919 --> 00:22:40,640 +the tech industry about California about +科技行业关于加州的 + +529 +00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,200 +peace and the future you should be +和平和未来你应该 + +530 +00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,480 +pro-china that's all so why is it become +亲中国，这就是为什么人们 + +531 +00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,400 +so Universal to assume that we are +普遍认为我们 + +532 +00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,159 +already in a state of conflict with +已经与中国处于冲突状态， + +533 +00:22:49,159 --> 00:22:53,000 +China on not just party lines but like +不仅在党派界限上，而且就像 + +534 +00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,159 +almost any Spectrum you could kind of +几乎任何你可以认为的频谱一样，他 + +535 +00:22:55,159 --> 00:22:56,640 +like + +536 +00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,559 +consider said it exact right and he +说的完全正确，他 + +537 +00:22:59,559 --> 00:23:02,000 +predicted it better than anyone in the +预测了这一点 比全世界任何人都好 + +538 +00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:06,039 +whole world in 2001 he said when China +2001年，他说，当中国 + +539 +00:23:06,039 --> 00:23:08,480 +becomes large we're going to have +变得强大时，我们将会发生 + +540 +00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,240 +conflict because that's John's Theory +冲突，因为这是约翰的理论 + +541 +00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,000 +and it's right as a description of +，这对美国外交政策的描述是正确的： + +542 +00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,520 +American foreign policy that we are for +我们追求 + +543 +00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,840 +power they are big therefore they're an +权力，他们很大，因此他们是 + +544 +00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,279 +enemy they're an enemy of our aspiration +敌人，他们是我们愿望的敌人 + +545 +00:23:20,279 --> 00:23:24,000 +to Global City tra City let let's let +到全球城市 tra 城市 让我们让 + +546 +00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:25,400 +John jump in here do you want you want +约翰跳到这里 你想让 + +547 +00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,640 +me to is it okay if I talk about this +我来吗 我可以谈论这个 是 + +548 +00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,720 +yeah yeah I mean I think um I think that +的 是的 我的意思是我认为嗯 我认为 + +549 +00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,480 +um what's interesting I mean you and +嗯 有什么有趣的 我的意思是你和 + +550 +00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,279 +Jeff I think arrive at similar +杰夫 我想到达 + +551 +00:23:35,279 --> 00:23:38,039 +conclusions about Ukraine uh but +关于乌克兰的结论相似，但是 + +552 +00:23:38,039 --> 00:23:40,000 +different ones on China right because +关于中国的结论不同，因为 + +553 +00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:41,880 +Jeff is an economist and I think sees +杰夫是一名经济学家，我认为基于贸易经济的潜力，我认为 + +554 +00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,559 +the world in fundamentally positive some +世界在某些 + +555 +00:23:44,559 --> 00:23:47,480 +ways based on the potential for trade +方面从 + +556 +00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,640 +economics basically whereas you see the +根本上是积极的，而你认为 + +557 +00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,320 +world as more of a zero sum game based +世界更多的是基于零和游戏 + +558 +00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:53,679 +on the balance of power why don't you +权力平衡 你为什么不 + +559 +00:23:53,679 --> 00:23:56,679 +just explain that difference I okay uh +解释一下这种差异 我好吧呃， + +560 +00:23:56,679 --> 00:23:58,880 +it is very important to emphasize David +强调大卫是很重要的 + +561 +00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,000 +was saying that Jeff and I agree on all + +562 +00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,039 +sorts of issues including Ukraine and + +563 +00:24:03,039 --> 00:24:05,360 +Israel Palestine but we disagree + +564 +00:24:05,360 --> 00:24:07,480 +fundamentally as he just made clear on + +565 +00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:09,360 +China and let me explain to you why I +让我向你解释一下为什么我 + +566 +00:24:09,360 --> 00:24:11,480 +think that's the case and then Jeff can +认为 就是这样，然后杰夫可以 + +567 +00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,240 +tell you why he thinks I'm wrong +告诉你为什么他认为我错了， + +568 +00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,919 +uh it has to do with security whether +呃，这与安全有关，无论 + +569 +00:24:17,919 --> 00:24:20,720 +you privilege security or survival or +你优先考虑安全还是生存， + +570 +00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,080 +whether you privilege prosperity and +还是优先考虑繁荣和 + +571 +00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:24,679 +economists and I would imagine most of +经济学家，我想 + +572 +00:24:24,679 --> 00:24:26,480 +you in the audience really care greatly +观众中的大多数人都非常关心 + +573 +00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,960 +about maximizing prosperity for someone +为像 + +574 +00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:30,600 +like me who's a realist what I care +我这样的现实主义者实现繁荣最大化，我 + +575 +00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,880 +about is maximizing the state's +关心的是最大化国家的 + +576 +00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,320 +prospects of survival and when you live +生存前景，当你生活 + +577 +00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,360 +in an Antarctic system and in IR speak +在南极系统中，用国际关系的话说， + +578 +00:24:38,360 --> 00:24:40,320 +that means there's no higher authority +这意味着没有更高的权威，也 + +579 +00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:42,080 +there's no night Watchmen that can come +没有可以下来的守夜人 + +580 +00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:43,960 +down and rescue you if you get into +如果你遇到麻烦，就会拯救你， + +581 +00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,799 +trouble and this is the International +这是国际 + +582 +00:24:45,799 --> 00:24:47,880 +System there's no higher authority in +体系，在那个无政府主义的世界里没有更高的权威， + +583 +00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,559 +that anarchic world the best way to +最好的 + +584 +00:24:50,559 --> 00:24:53,679 +survive is to be really powerful as we +生存方式就是变得非常强大，就像 + +585 +00:24:53,679 --> 00:24:55,240 +used to say when I was a kid on New York +我小时候在纽约市游乐场时我们常说的那样， + +586 +00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:56,679 +City playgrounds you want to be the +你想要 成为 + +587 +00:24:56,679 --> 00:24:58,840 +biggest and baddest dude on the Block +街区里最大、最坏的家伙， + +588 +00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,799 +and that's simply because it's the best +这只是因为 + +589 +00:25:00,799 --> 00:25:03,360 +way to survive if you're really powerful +如果你真的很强大，这是最好的生存方式 + +590 +00:25:03,360 --> 00:25:06,039 +nobody fools around with you the United +没有人跟你开玩笑 + +591 +00:25:06,039 --> 00:25:08,520 +States is a regional hedgemon it's the +美国是一个地区对冲国它是 + +592 +00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,120 +only Regional hedgemon on the planet we +地球上唯一的地区对冲国我们 + +593 +00:25:11,120 --> 00:25:14,200 +dominate the Western Hemisphere and what +统治着西方 西半球， + +594 +00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,120 +China has begun to do as it's got +随着中国经济实力日益强大，中国已经开始做的 + +595 +00:25:18,120 --> 00:25:21,640 +increasingly powerful economically is +就是将 + +596 +00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,960 +translate that economic might into +经济实力转化为 + +597 +00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,200 +military might and it is trying to +军事实力，它正试图 + +598 +00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,799 +dominate Asia it wants to push us out +主宰亚洲，它想把我们 + +599 +00:25:29,799 --> 00:25:31,679 +beyond the first island chain it wants +赶出第一岛链，它 + +600 +00:25:31,679 --> 00:25:33,640 +to push us out beyond the second island +想把我们赶出第二岛链 + +601 +00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,600 +chain it wants to be like we are in the +它希望就像我们在 + +602 +00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,200 +Western Hemisphere and I don't blame the +西半球一样， + +603 +00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,600 +Chinese one bit if I was the National +如果我是 + +604 +00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,039 +Security advisor in Beijing that's what +北京的国家安全顾问，我不会责怪中国人，这就是 + +605 +00:25:43,039 --> 00:25:45,240 +I'd be telling XI ping we should be +我告诉习近平我们应该 + +606 +00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,559 +trying to do but of course from an +努力做的事情，但当然 + +607 +00:25:47,559 --> 00:25:49,600 +American point of view this is +美国人的观点是这样的 + +608 +00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:53,279 +unacceptable and we do not tolerate peer +不可接受，我们不容忍同行 + +609 +00:25:53,279 --> 00:25:57,159 +competitors we do not want another +竞争者，我们不希望 + +610 +00:25:57,159 --> 00:25:59,760 +Regional hedgemon on the planet in the +地球上出现另一个地区霸主。 + +611 +00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:01,919 +20th century there were four countries +20世纪，有四个国家 + +612 +00:26:01,919 --> 00:26:04,039 +that threatened to become Regional +威胁要成为 + +613 +00:26:04,039 --> 00:26:07,480 +hegemons like us Imperial Germany +像我们这样的地区霸主：德意志帝国、 + +614 +00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,240 +Imperial Japan Nazi Germany and the +日本帝国、纳粹德国和 + +615 +00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,799 +Soviet Union the United States played a +苏联，美国发挥了 + +616 +00:26:12,799 --> 00:26:15,120 +key role in putting all four of those +关键作用 + +617 +00:26:15,120 --> 00:26:17,480 +countries on the scrap peap of History + +618 +00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,880 +we want to remain the only Regional +我们希望继续成为 + +619 +00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,360 +hedgemon in the world we are a ruthless +世界上唯一的地区对冲国家，我们是一个无情的 + +620 +00:26:23,360 --> 00:26:25,840 +great power never want to lose sight of +大国，永远不想忽视 + +621 +00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,559 +that fact and the end result of this is +这一事实，而最终的结果是， + +622 +00:26:28,559 --> 00:26:31,120 +you get an intense security competition +你会得到强烈的 + +623 +00:26:31,120 --> 00:26:33,559 +between China +之间的安全竞争 中国 + +624 +00:26:33,559 --> 00:26:36,720 +and the United States and it revolves +和美国，它 + +625 +00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,919 +around the concept of security not +围绕着安全概念而不是 + +626 +00:26:39,919 --> 00:26:42,200 +Prosperity what you just very quickly so +繁荣，你很快就会 + +627 +00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,360 +what you see beginning to happen is that +看到开始发生的事情是， + +628 +00:26:45,360 --> 00:26:47,880 +it's in all domains where the + +629 +00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,039 +competition takes place especially +竞争发生在所有领域，特别是 + +630 +00:26:50,039 --> 00:26:53,240 +high-tech we do not want them defeating +高科技领域，我们不希望他们击败 + +631 +00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,799 +this defeating Us in the Hightech War we +这场失败 我们在高科技战争中，我们在 + +632 +00:26:56,799 --> 00:26:59,000 +are competing with them econom ically we +经济上与他们竞争，我们在 + +633 +00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,720 +are competing with them militarily and +军事上与他们竞争， + +634 +00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,240 +this is because the best way to survive +这是因为对我们来说，最好的生存方式 + +635 +00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,520 +is for us the United States of America +是美利坚合众国 + +636 +00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:11,200 +to be the only Regional hedgemon on the +成为地球上唯一的区域对冲国， + +637 +00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,399 +planet so Jeff let me let me set it up +所以杰夫让我让我 设置它 + +638 +00:27:14,399 --> 00:27:18,200 +for for Jeff here so Jeff I you and John +对于杰夫来说，所以杰夫，我，你和约翰， + +639 +00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,080 +I think agree that the the game on on +我认为棋盘上的游戏 + +640 +00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,960 +the board is power seeking I think what +是寻求权力，我认为 + +641 +00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,200 +John is saying is there are smart ways +约翰所说的是追求权力有聪明的方法 + +642 +00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,919 +and dumb ways to pursue power +和愚蠢的方法， + +643 +00:27:28,919 --> 00:27:30,840 +that containing China is a smart way +遏制中国是我们的明智方法 “ + +644 +00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,120 +what we're doing in Ukraine is a dumb +在乌克兰所做的事情是一种愚蠢的 + +645 +00:27:33,120 --> 00:27:35,399 +way whereas it seems like you're saying +方式，而你似乎在说 + +646 +00:27:35,399 --> 00:27:37,799 +that all power seeking behavior is bad +所有寻求权力的行为都是不好的， + +647 +00:27:37,799 --> 00:27:39,080 +that's not the game we should be playing +这不是我们应该玩的游戏， + +648 +00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,159 +we should somehow opt out of that is +我们应该以某种方式选择退出， + +649 +00:27:41,159 --> 00:27:43,080 +that is that kind of where you're going +这就是你要去的地方 + +650 +00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,640 +it's a it's not a bad way to say it but +这是一个不错的说法，但 + +651 +00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,360 +I would I would put it in in another way +我 我会用另一种方式表达吗？ + +652 +00:27:48,360 --> 00:27:53,440 +I read a very good book uh John's +我读了一本非常好的书，呃约翰的 + +653 +00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,840 +um and and +嗯， + +654 +00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,960 +John described +约翰描述说 + +655 +00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:00,760 +I'm going to quote him but he can quote +我要引用他的话，但他可以 + +656 +00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:04,399 +himself afterwards he he he said that +稍后引用他自己的话，他说， + +657 +00:28:04,399 --> 00:28:05,760 +the regional +地区 + +658 +00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,559 +hegemons uh don't threaten each other +霸主呃不会互相威胁 + +659 +00:28:08,559 --> 00:28:11,159 +actually why because we have big ocean +实际上为什么，因为我们之间有广阔的海洋， + +660 +00:28:11,159 --> 00:28:12,000 +in + +661 +00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,679 +between + +662 +00:28:13,679 --> 00:28:17,919 +I deeply believe that China is not a +我坚信中国不会 + +663 +00:28:17,919 --> 00:28:21,360 +threat to the United States and I deeply +对美国构成威胁，而且我 + +664 +00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:24,080 +believe the only threat to the United +坚信， + +665 +00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,600 +States period in the world given the + +666 +00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,720 +oceans given our size and given the +考虑到海洋、考虑到我们的幅员和 + +667 +00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,080 +military is nuclear +军事力量，核 + +668 +00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,440 +war I deeply believe we're close to +战争是世界上对美国的唯一威胁 我坚信我们已经接近 + +669 +00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:42,320 +nuclear war because we have a mindset +核能 战争，因为我们有一种心态 + +670 +00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,159 +that leads us in that direction we have +引导我们朝这个方向前进，我们有 + +671 +00:28:45,159 --> 00:28:47,600 +a mindset that everything is a challenge +一种心态，一切都是生存的挑战， + +672 +00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,399 +for survival and that escalation is + +673 +00:28:50,399 --> 00:28:53,440 +therefore always the right approach my +因此升级始终是正确的方法，我的 + +674 +00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,240 +view is a little bit of prudence could +观点是一点点谨慎可以 + +675 +00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,559 +save the whole planet +拯救整个地球， + +676 +00:28:58,559 --> 00:29:02,080 +so why I don't like Ukraine is that I +所以为什么我不这样做？ 与乌克兰不同的是，我 + +677 +00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,080 +don't see any reason in the world that +看不出世界上有任何理由认为 + +678 +00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:08,600 +NATO has to be on Russia's border with +北约必须位于俄罗斯与乌克兰的边境， + +679 +00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,840 +Ukraine I was as I said gorbachov's +正如我所说，戈尔巴乔夫的 + +680 +00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,679 +adviser and yelton's adviser and they +顾问和叶尔顿的顾问，他们 + +681 +00:29:14,679 --> 00:29:17,440 +wanted peace and they wanted cooperation +想要和平，他们想要合作， + +682 +00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,760 +but whatever they wanted they did not +但无论他们想要什么，他们都做了 不 + +683 +00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,799 +want the US military on their border so +希望美国军队进入他们的边境，所以 + +684 +00:29:23,799 --> 00:29:26,679 +if we continued to push as we did we +如果我们继续像以前那样推进，我们 + +685 +00:29:26,679 --> 00:29:29,440 +would get to war John explained that +就会爆发战争。约翰解释说， + +686 +00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,960 +better than anybody we're now at War and +我们现在处于战争状态，这比任何人都好， + +687 +00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,399 +even this morning there is further +即使今天早上，局势还会进一步 + +688 +00:29:35,399 --> 00:29:38,000 +escalation blinkin has said well if the +升级，如果伊朗人放弃的话，布林金说得很好。 + +689 +00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,039 +Iranians give these missiles then we +这些导弹，然后我们 + +690 +00:29:40,039 --> 00:29:41,760 +will give missiles to hit deep into +将提供导弹深入 + +691 +00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:45,840 +Russia this is a recipe and then we had +俄罗斯，这是一个秘诀，然后我们让 + +692 +00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,840 +Bill Burns the CIA director say last +中央情报局局长比尔伯恩斯上周说 + +693 +00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,000 +week an absurdity that he knows but Cia +他知道这是荒谬的，但中央情报局 + +694 +00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:53,880 +directors never tell the truth if they +局长永远不会说实话，如果他们这样 + +695 +00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,480 +do they lose their job but he said don't +做，他们就会丢掉工作，但他说 别 + +696 +00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,679 +worry about nuclear war don't worry +担心 核战争，不要担心 + +697 +00:29:58,679 --> 00:30:02,279 +about saber rattling my advice to you is +武力威胁，我给你的建议是，要 + +698 +00:30:02,279 --> 00:30:06,279 +worry a lot about nuclear war and so be +非常担心核战争，所以要 + +699 +00:30:06,279 --> 00:30:10,120 +prudent you don't have to put the US +谨慎，你不必把美军部署 + +700 +00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:14,679 +military on Russia's border okay and my +在俄罗斯边境，好吧，我 + +701 +00:30:14,679 --> 00:30:16,919 +advice to Russia and to Mexico when I'm +对俄罗斯和墨西哥的建议是，当我 + +702 +00:30:16,919 --> 00:30:18,960 +going to Mexico tomorrow I'll give them +明天去墨西哥我会给他们 + +703 +00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,080 +a piece of advice don't let China or +一个建议，不要让中国或 + +704 +00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,279 +Russia build a military base on the r +俄罗斯在河上建立军事基地 + +705 +00:30:24,279 --> 00:30:27,799 +Grant not a good idea for Mexico not a +格兰特对墨西哥不是一个 + +706 +00:30:27,799 --> 00:30:29,880 +good good idea for Ukraine not a good +好主意对乌克兰不是一个好 + +707 +00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:31,960 +idea for Russia not a good idea for +主意对俄罗斯不是一个好主意 对中国来说这个想法 + +708 +00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,000 +China not a good idea for the United +对美国来说不是一个好主意 + +709 +00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,519 +States we need to stay a little bit away +需要彼此保持一点距离， + +710 +00:30:36,519 --> 00:30:39,120 +from each other so that we don't have a +这样我们就不会爆发 + +711 +00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,360 +nuclear war by the way I do recommend +核战争，顺便说一句，我推荐 + +712 +00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,720 +another good book and that is Annie +另一本好书，那就是安妮· + +713 +00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,880 +Jacobson's nuclear war a scenario it +雅各布森的核战争，一个 + +714 +00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,200 +takes two hours to read the world ends +需要两个小时才能读完的场景， + +715 +00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,080 +in two hours in the book uh and uh it's +两个小时后世界就会结束 在书中，嗯，嗯，这是 + +716 +00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,360 +a very +一本非常 + +717 +00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:58,399 +persuasive guide that one nuke can ruin +有说服力的指南，一颗核武器可以毁掉 + +718 +00:30:58,399 --> 00:31:01,320 +your whole day as they say Jeffrey can +你一整天，正如他们所说，杰弗里可以， + +719 +00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:05,039 +um uh my my strong advice on this +嗯，我对此的强烈建议是， + +720 +00:31:05,039 --> 00:31:08,639 +therefore is recognize China first of +首先要认识到中国 + +721 +00:31:08,639 --> 00:31:13,639 +all is not a threat to the United States +不是对美国 + +722 +00:31:13,639 --> 00:31:16,679 +security big oceans big nuclear +安全的威胁。 大核 + +723 +00:31:16,679 --> 00:31:19,519 +deterrent and so forth second we don't +威慑等等 其次，我们 + +724 +00:31:19,519 --> 00:31:22,399 +have to be in China's face what do I +不必面对中国，我的 + +725 +00:31:22,399 --> 00:31:24,240 +mean by that we don't have to provoke +意思是，我们不必因 + +726 +00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:27,240 +World War III Over Taiwan that's a long +台湾问题挑起第三次世界大战，这是一个长期 + +727 +00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,159 +complicated issue but this would be the +复杂的问题，但这 + +728 +00:31:29,159 --> 00:31:31,120 +stupidest thing for my grandchildren to +对我的孙子来说是最愚蠢的事情 + +729 +00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:35,559 +die for imaginable and I resent it every +可以想象，我每天都对此感到不满， + +730 +00:31:35,559 --> 00:31:39,240 +day when we play that game we have three +当我们玩这个游戏时，我们 + +731 +00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:41,320 +agreements with China that say we're +与中国达成了三项协议，这些协议说我们 + +732 +00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,480 +going to stay out of that and we should +将不参与其中，我们应该这样做， + +733 +00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,840 +and then China would have no reason for +然后中国就没有理由发动 + +734 +00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,480 +war either +战争，无论是 + +735 +00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,360 +China and then on the economic side let +中国还是经济方面 让 + +736 +00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,360 +me just reiterate because I was asked +我重申一下 因为昨天有人问我 + +737 +00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:57,480 +yesterday and there was some surprise +，让我感到有些惊讶， + +738 +00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:00,200 +was it good to let China into the the +让中国加入 + +739 +00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,320 +WTO I said of course it enriched all of +世贸组织是好事吗？我说，当然，它让你们所有人都富裕起来， + +740 +00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:06,080 +you by the way it enriched me it +就像它使我富裕一样，它使 + +741 +00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,039 +enriched this country it enriched the +这个国家富裕了，它使 + +742 +00:32:08,039 --> 00:32:11,200 +world including enriching China that's +世界富裕了，包括使中国富裕了，这 + +743 +00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:14,200 +normal economics is not a zero sum game +是正常的经济学 这不是零和游戏， + +744 +00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,159 +we all agree on that I believe that +我们都同意，我相信 + +745 +00:32:17,159 --> 00:32:19,639 +security doesn't have to be a zero sum +安全不一定是零和 + +746 +00:32:19,639 --> 00:32:22,480 +game either we can stay a little bit +游戏，我们可以彼此保持一点 + +747 +00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,919 +away from each other and China does not +距离，中国不会 + +748 +00:32:25,919 --> 00:32:29,440 +spend its time beon in America being a +把时间花在美国成为 + +749 +00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,279 +western hemisphere hegemon they don't +西半球霸主身上 他们不 + +750 +00:32:33,279 --> 00:32:35,159 +that's not their greatest interest to +这不是他们最大的兴趣，就是要 + +751 +00:32:35,159 --> 00:32:38,279 +bring down American uh Power in the +打倒美国在 + +752 +00:32:38,279 --> 00:32:40,399 +Western Hemisphere Jee what about the +西半球的权力，Jee，那么 + +753 +00:32:40,399 --> 00:32:42,880 +energy hold on let's let John respond to +能源保持怎么样呢，让我们让约翰 + +754 +00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,840 +this just very quickly most of you have +很快地对此做出回应，你们中的大多数人 + +755 +00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,639 +probably never asked yourself the +可能从来没有问过自己这个 + +756 +00:32:47,639 --> 00:32:49,799 +question why is the United States +问题：为什么美国在 + +757 +00:32:49,799 --> 00:32:52,559 +roaming all over the planet interfering +世界各地漫游？ 这个星球干涉 + +758 +00:32:52,559 --> 00:32:54,960 +in every country's business it's in part +每个国家的商业，部分 + +759 +00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,080 +because it's so powerful but it's also +原因是它太强大了，但也 + +760 +00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,519 +because it's a hegemon which means we +因为它是一个霸主，这意味着我们 + +761 +00:32:59,519 --> 00:33:01,080 +have no threats in the Western +在西半球没有威胁， + +762 +00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:05,039 +Hemisphere so we are free to roam the +所以我们可以自由地漫游 + +763 +00:33:05,039 --> 00:33:08,000 +great danger Jeff if China becomes a +杰夫，如果中国成为一个巨大的危险 + +764 +00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,399 +regional hedgemon and doesn't have to +区域对冲国，不必 + +765 +00:33:10,399 --> 00:33:12,120 +worry about security conc then they +担心安全问题 那么他们的 + +766 +00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:13,919 +behave like us yeah then they behave +行为就像我们一样 是的，那么他们的行为 + +767 +00:33:13,919 --> 00:33:17,519 +like us exact but my point to you Jeff +就像我们一样 但我对你的观点杰夫 + +768 +00:33:17,519 --> 00:33:20,840 +is let's prevent that from happening by +是让我们通过 + +769 +00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:22,880 +preventing them from becoming a regional +阻止他们成为我们 + +770 +00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:24,960 +hedgemon we don't want them to have +不希望的区域对冲国来防止这种情况发生 他们有 + +771 +00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,039 +freedom to roam you were talking about +自由漫游的权利，你说的是 + +772 +00:33:27,039 --> 00:33:30,120 +them putting military bases in Mexico +他们在墨西哥建立军事基地， + +773 +00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,679 +that's our great fear it's not my great +这是我们最担心的，但这不是我最 + +774 +00:33:32,679 --> 00:33:35,120 +fear they have no interest in doing so +担心的，他们对此没有兴趣， + +775 +00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:36,559 +because they don't want to get blown up +因为他们也不想被炸毁， + +776 +00:33:36,559 --> 00:33:38,559 +either so they do seem to have a big +所以他们似乎确实有 + +777 +00:33:38,559 --> 00:33:41,799 +interest Jeff in Africa India Russia and +杰夫对非洲、印度、俄罗斯和 + +778 +00:33:41,799 --> 00:33:43,159 +they +他们 + +779 +00:33:43,159 --> 00:33:45,440 +are China has a +是中国在那里有一个 + +780 +00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:49,000 +major um military bases there oh well +主要的军事基地哦，好吧， + +781 +00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:50,480 +they're building nuclear power plants in +他们正在贸易中建造核电站 + +782 +00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,200 +trade and they're building de difference +，他们正在建立有 + +783 +00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,080 +in favor of that let's go compete that +利于我们去竞争的差异， + +784 +00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:56,760 +way I'm all in favor of that but Jeff +我完全赞成这一点，但杰夫， + +785 +00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,440 +that's cuz they're not a Regal hegemon +因为他们 “还不是富豪霸主， + +786 +00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:03,039 +yet yeah if you try to prevent them from +是的，如果你试图阻止他们 + +787 +00:34:03,039 --> 00:34:04,639 +being a regional hegemon we're going to +成为地区霸主，我们 + +788 +00:34:04,639 --> 00:34:07,320 +end up in World War I because as you say +最终将陷入第一次世界大战，因为正如你 + +789 +00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,639 +yourself that this can absolutely spill +自己所说，这绝对会蔓延 + +790 +00:34:10,639 --> 00:34:13,560 +over into war I don't want it to spill +成战争，我不希望它发生 蔓延 + +791 +00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,320 +over into war on the theory that maybe +至战争 也许 + +792 +00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,520 +someday they behave differently that's +有一天他们的行为会有所不同，这 + +793 +00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:20,879 +not a good theory for me so so so that +对我来说不是一个好理论， + +794 +00:34:20,879 --> 00:34:24,280 +part so John can we contain China +所以约翰我们可以遏制中国， + +795 +00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:25,599 +prevent them from becoming a regional +防止他们在 + +796 +00:34:25,599 --> 00:34:28,440 +haimon without Direct ly defending +不直接保卫 + +797 +00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,000 +Taiwan I mean isn't that where the +台湾的情况下成为地区性的海蒙，我的意思是，这不是 + +798 +00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,879 +rubber meets the road no it's not just +橡胶与道路相遇的地方 不，不仅仅是 + +799 +00:34:32,879 --> 00:34:34,879 +Taiwan I mean one could argue there's +台湾，我的意思是有人可能会说 + +800 +00:34:34,879 --> 00:34:37,040 +sort of three flash points in East Asia +东亚存在三个热点， + +801 +00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:38,960 +that you folks should keep your eye on +你们应该 + +802 +00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,440 +one is obviously Taiwan two is the South +密切关注，一是台湾，二是 + +803 +00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:43,879 +China Sea and three is the East China +南海，三是 + +804 +00:34:43,879 --> 00:34:46,440 +Sea and I think David that the place +东海，我认为大卫 + +805 +00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,879 +where a conflict is most likely today is +最有可能发生冲突的地方 今天 + +806 +00:34:48,879 --> 00:34:51,119 +not over Taiwan I could explain why I +不是关于台湾的问题，我可以解释为什么我 + +807 +00:34:51,119 --> 00:34:53,639 +think Taiwan is not a serious problem at +认为台湾目前或在可预见的未来并不是一个严重的问题， + +808 +00:34:53,639 --> 00:34:55,719 +the moment or for the foreseeable future + +809 +00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,920 +the South China Sea is a very dangerous +南海是一个非常危险的 + +810 +00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:01,280 +place we could end up in a war for sure +地方， + +811 +00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,000 +even if we did not defend +即使我们不保卫 + +812 +00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,720 +Taiwan uh so Taiwan you don't want to +台湾，我们也肯定会陷入战争 呃所以台湾你不想 + +813 +00:35:07,720 --> 00:35:10,720 +overemphasize I agree with I agree with +过分强调我同意我同意 + +814 +00:35:10,720 --> 00:35:14,000 +Jeff that we definitely don't want a war +杰夫的观点，我们绝对不想要战争， + +815 +00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:15,560 +and we certainly don't want a nuclear +我们当然不想要核 + +816 +00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:17,800 +war and he is absolutely correct that +战争，他是绝对正确的， + +817 +00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,200 +there's a risk of a nuclear war if a war +如果 + +818 +00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,800 +breaks out of any sort between China and +中国与美国之间爆发任何形式的战争 + +819 +00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,280 +the United States many of us in the +美国，我们观众中的许多人都 + +820 +00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,359 +audience remember the Cold War and this +记得冷战，这 + +821 +00:35:27,359 --> 00:35:29,359 +was an everpresent danger in the Cold +是冷战中始终存在的危险， + +822 +00:35:29,359 --> 00:35:32,240 +War but my argument is that this is +但我的观点是，这是 + +823 +00:35:32,240 --> 00:35:34,560 +inevitable because in a world where you +不可避免的，因为在一个你 + +824 +00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,040 +don't have a higher authority and you +没有更高权威并且你 + +825 +00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,440 +care about your survival you have a +关心你的生存的世界中，你 有着 + +826 +00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,720 +deep-seated interest as any state in the +根深蒂固的兴趣，因为系统中的任何国家都 + +827 +00:35:41,720 --> 00:35:45,160 +system to be as powerful as possible and +尽可能强大， + +828 +00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,800 +that means dominating your world um +这意味着统治你的世界，嗯， + + +# India's growing role; are China's wound self-inflicted? + +829 +00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,359 +there is one uh player on this chess +这个国际象棋棋盘上有一个呃玩家 + +830 +00:35:50,359 --> 00:35:51,839 +board that hasn't come up yet and then +还没有出现，然后 + +831 +00:35:51,839 --> 00:35:53,000 +maybe we could skate to where the puck +也许我们可以滑到那个地方 + +832 +00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,079 +is going you know when you talk about +当你谈论冰球时你就知道 + +833 +00:35:55,079 --> 00:35:57,040 +the South China Sea okay sure South +南中国海好吧， + +834 +00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,280 +Korea Japan Jaan Australia all those +韩国，日本，贾恩，澳大利亚， + +835 +00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:00,480 +major players there they're just a +那里的所有主要参与者，他们只有 + +836 +00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,520 +couple hundred million people but then +几亿人口，但 + +837 +00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,359 +China is in population decline she +中国人口正在下降，她 + +838 +00:36:05,359 --> 00:36:06,960 +apparently is self-destructing in terms +显然在贸易方面正在自我毁灭， + +839 +00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,280 +of trade seems like uh containment is +似乎呃，遏制措施在 + +840 +00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:10,680 +working pretty well there because of the +那里运作得很好 因为 + +841 +00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,800 +all the self-inflicted wounds but the +所有的自伤，但 + +842 +00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,760 +fastest growing country fastest growing +增长最快的国家、经济增长最快、 + +843 +00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,000 +economy the quickest to develop is India +发展最快的是印度， + +844 +00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,640 +and they seem to have a very pragmatic +他们似乎采取了非常务实的 + +845 +00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:21,839 +approach hey they'll buy cheap oil from +做法，嘿，他们会从普京那里购买廉价石油 + +846 +00:36:21,839 --> 00:36:23,880 +Putin and they are their own sovereign +，他们是自己的主权 + +847 +00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:25,720 +country with their own point of view +国家，拥有自己的主权。 自己的观点 + +848 +00:36:25,720 --> 00:36:28,520 +Would we not be really well advised over +我们是否会在 + +849 +00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,359 +the next 10 to 20 years to make that our +未来 10 到 20 年里得到很好的建议，将其作为我们的 + +850 +00:36:30,359 --> 00:36:32,240 +priority and India's role in this how do +优先事项以及印度在这方面的作用， + +851 +00:36:32,240 --> 00:36:34,960 +you look at them well we definitely view +你如何看待它们，我们肯定将 + +852 +00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,040 +India as an ally right it's part of the +印度视为盟友，对吧，它是 + +853 +00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,720 +Quad which is this uh this rubbe +四方会谈的一部分，就是这个呃这个垃圾 + +854 +00:36:40,720 --> 00:36:43,000 +Goldberg type Alliance structure that we +我们在东亚建立的戈德堡式联盟结构， + +855 +00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,280 +put together in East Asia that includes +包括 + +856 +00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,560 +Australia Japan the United States and +澳大利亚、日本、美国和 + +857 +00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:52,720 +India and India is smartly maintaining +印度，印度正在巧妙地维持 + +858 +00:36:52,720 --> 00:36:54,720 +its good relations with Russia the +与俄罗斯的良好关系， + +859 +00:36:54,720 --> 00:36:56,960 +Indians understand like Jeff and I do +印度人像杰夫和我一样明白， + +860 +00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,160 +that the Russians are no great threat +俄罗斯人并不是一个巨大的威胁， + +861 +00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,480 +but from India's point of view the real +但从印度的角度来看 看法 真正的 + +862 +00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,720 +threat is China right right and there +威胁是中国，对， + +863 +00:37:03,720 --> 00:37:05,880 +are two places where India cares about +印度有两个地方关心 + +864 +00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:09,560 +China One is on the India China border +中国，一个是在 + +865 +00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:11,040 +up in the Himalayas where they've +喜马拉雅山的中印边境，在那里他们 + +866 +00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,640 +actually had conflicts right and there's +实际上发生了冲突， + +867 +00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,440 +a real danger of War breaking out the +确实有爆发战争的危险， + +868 +00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:18,560 +second place which is maybe even more +第二个地方是 也许更 + +869 +00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,760 +dangerous not at the moment but will be +危险的不是现在，但随着 + +870 +00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,560 +over time is the Indian Ocean because +时间的推移，印度洋会变得更危险，因为 + +871 +00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:26,800 +the Chinese are imitating the United +中国人正在效仿 + +872 +00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:28,319 +States they not not only want to be a +美国，他们不仅想成为 + +873 +00:37:28,319 --> 00:37:30,800 +regional hedgemon they want to develop +地区对冲者，还想发展 + +874 +00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,040 +power projection capability so the +力量投送能力，所以 + +875 +00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,680 +Chinese are building a Bluewater Navy +中国人正在建立一支蓝水海军 + +876 +00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,319 +that can come out of East Asia through +可以通过东亚地区 + +877 +00:37:38,319 --> 00:37:40,960 +the Straits of Mala through the Indian +穿过印度洋到波斯湾的马拉海峡 + +878 +00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:44,040 +Ocean to the Persian Gulf and once you +，一旦你 + +879 +00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:45,680 +start talking about going through the +开始谈论穿过 + +880 +00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:49,920 +Indian Ocean the Indians get spooked and +印度洋，印第安人就会感到害怕， + +881 +00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:51,800 +that's when the Americans in the Indians +那就是印第安人中的美国人 + +882 +00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:54,040 +come together okay let's think of this +聚集在一起的时候，好吧，让我们 + +883 +00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,000 +from an engineering point of view if we +从工程的角度来考虑这一点，如果我们 + +884 +00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,440 +could um +嗯， + +885 +00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:01,960 +why are the Chinese developing the Navy +为什么中国要发展海军， + +886 +00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:07,560 +because for 40 years I've read essays on +因为40年来我读过 + +887 +00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:11,520 +all of the choke points uh in the South +关于 + +888 +00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:13,839 +China Sea the East China Sea the Indian +南海、东海、 + +889 +00:38:13,839 --> 00:38:17,480 +Ocean against China that's our policy +印度洋对抗中国的所有瓶颈的文章，这就是我们的政策 + +890 +00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:20,200 +choke points look at the malaka Straits +瓶颈 在马六甲海峡 + +891 +00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:22,640 +look what we can do here first island +看看我们在这里能做什么 第一 + +892 +00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:25,920 +chain this is American strategy can we +岛链 这是美国的战略 我们可以 + +893 +00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,040 +keep the Chinese submarine out of the +让中国潜艇远离 + +894 +00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,920 +Pacific Ocean First China first island +太平洋 首先 中国第一 + +895 +00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:34,400 +chain and so forth so of course they +岛链等等 所以他们当然 + +896 +00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,119 +react they're rich they're going to +反应他们很富有 他们会 + +897 +00:38:36,119 --> 00:38:38,079 +build a Navy so that they can get their +建立一支海军，这样他们就可以获得 + +898 +00:38:38,079 --> 00:38:40,599 +oil on which their economy runs can we +经济赖以生存的石油，我们能否 + +899 +00:38:40,599 --> 00:38:43,800 +be a little bit sensible with them and +对他们明智一点，并 + +900 +00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:45,640 +decide how we're not going to have choke +决定如何避免出现 + +901 +00:38:45,640 --> 00:38:47,200 +points and then we don't have to have a +瓶颈，然后我们就不必爆发 + +902 +00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:48,800 +nuclear war which is really going to +核战争 真的会 + +903 +00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,400 +ruin our day that's the point we can +毁了我们的一天，这就是我们的重点 可以 + +904 +00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:54,760 +think a little bit we can understand it +想一下，我们可以 + +905 +00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,640 +from their perspective we can understand +从他们的角度理解它，我们可以 + +906 +00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:00,119 +it from our perspec perspective +从我们的角度理解它， + +907 +00:39:00,119 --> 00:39:03,359 +deconfliction by the way I don't believe +我不相信 + +908 +00:39:03,359 --> 00:39:08,160 +India is an ally India is a +印度是盟友，印度是一个 + +909 +00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,480 +superpower India is going to have its +超级大国，印度将有 + +910 +00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,319 +own very distinctive interests thank you +自己非常独特的利益，谢谢 + +911 +00:39:13,319 --> 00:39:15,240 +it's not going to be an ally of the +。 不会成为美国的盟友 + +912 +00:39:15,240 --> 00:39:17,319 +United States I happen to like India +我碰巧非常喜欢印度 + +913 +00:39:17,319 --> 00:39:20,599 +enormously and and admire their policies +并钦佩他们的政策， + +914 +00:39:20,599 --> 00:39:23,119 +but the idea that India is going to Ally +但印度将 + +915 +00:39:23,119 --> 00:39:25,200 +with the United States against +与美国结盟对抗 + +916 +00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:29,160 +China in somebody's dream uh in +中国的想法在华盛顿的某人的梦想中， + +917 +00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,480 +Washington because it's another delusion +因为这是 + +918 +00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:33,800 +in Washington because they should get a +华盛顿的另一个错觉，因为他们 应该拿到 + +919 +00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,720 +passport and go see the world and and +护照，去看看世界， + +920 +00:39:36,720 --> 00:39:39,599 +and understand +了解 + +921 +00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:43,119 +something but Jeffrey if they these are +一些东西，但是杰弗里，如果他们 + +922 +00:39:43,119 --> 00:39:46,280 +my fa students in Washington right now +现在是我在华盛顿的法学院学生， + +923 +00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:47,880 +cuz they didn't listen to their +因为他们没有听他们的 + +924 +00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:49,880 +Professor Jeffrey we're we're making our +杰弗里教授的话，我们现在正在印度制造我们的 + +925 +00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:53,520 +iPhones in India now is that not +iPhone 是 + +926 +00:39:53,520 --> 00:39:55,440 +significantly important say again we're +再说一遍，我们正在 + +927 +00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:58,480 +moving iPhone production maybe Cooper +转移 iPhone 生产，也许库珀， + +928 +00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,319 +you're into economics here and that +你对这里的经济有影响，这对 + +929 +00:40:00,319 --> 00:40:02,880 +impact you you got Apple moving out of +你有影响，你让苹果公司搬出 + +930 +00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,400 +China you've got Japan funding people +中国，你让日本资助人们 + +931 +00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,560 +leaving China to Vietnam and to India is +离开中国前往越南和印度， + +932 +00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:08,960 +that not the solution here as we +这不是解决方案 当我们 + +933 +00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:10,960 +decouple from China it seems like they +与中国脱钩时，他们似乎 + +934 +00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:12,319 +come back to the table we had XI +来了 回到谈判桌上， + +935 +00:40:12,319 --> 00:40:13,920 +jingping kick all the Venture +习近平把所有的风险 + +936 +00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,240 +capitalists all investment out of China +投资家都踢出中国， + +937 +00:40:16,240 --> 00:40:18,680 +he got rid of all the education startups +他摆脱了所有的教育初创公司， + +938 +00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:20,160 +and then whatever two or three years +然后无论两三年 + +939 +00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,000 +later he's in San Francisco asking all +后，他在旧金山要求 + +940 +00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:23,720 +of us to invest more money and saying +我们所有人投资更多的钱，并说 + +941 +00:40:23,720 --> 00:40:27,560 +where'd you go okay first of all uh +在哪里。 你会好吗首先呃 + +942 +00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:29,319 +invite me back 10 years and we'll see +邀请我回来10年，我们会看到 + +943 +00:40:29,319 --> 00:40:31,520 +how smart all these decisions are +所有这些决定是多么明智， + +944 +00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,400 +because uh Shing it's incred no I'm +因为呃盛这令人难以置信不我 + +945 +00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:36,520 +talking about yes we've moved to India +说的是我们已经搬到印度， + +946 +00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:38,200 +that's our great Ally and then then +那是我们伟大的盟友然后然后 + +947 +00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:41,200 +we're going to have other other issues +我们还会有其他问题， + +948 +00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:43,160 +okay you I think you said that XI +好吧，我想你说过， + +949 +00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:46,920 +jinping's trade policy is uh implo self- +习近平的贸易政策是呃 + +950 +00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,680 +imploding or something it seems like +内爆，或者是一些看起来 + +951 +00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:50,319 +there's a lot of self-inflicted wounds +有很多自伤的东西， + +952 +00:40:50,319 --> 00:40:52,000 +when you it's not let me explain what +当你不让我解释这些 + +953 +00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,319 +the wounds are okay the wounds are the +伤口是什么时 好吧，这些伤口是 + +954 +00:40:55,319 --> 00:40:58,240 +United States deliberate policy to stop +美国故意的政策，旨在阻止 + +955 +00:40:58,240 --> 00:41:00,839 +you from selling things to China and to +你向中国出售东西，并 + +956 +00:41:00,839 --> 00:41:03,359 +stop China buying things from you that's +阻止中国从你那里购买东西，这 + +957 +00:41:03,359 --> 00:41:06,480 +not self-inflicted this a clear wait +不是自己造成的，这是一个明确的等待 + +958 +00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:09,160 +minute just to say let me say please +时间，只是想说让我说一下 + +959 +00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:10,720 +because it's very important for the +因为 + +960 +00:41:10,720 --> 00:41:13,400 +economy of the people in this room this +这对在座的人们的经济非常重要，这 + +961 +00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:17,040 +is a decision that was taken around +是 + +962 +00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:21,400 +2014 to contain China and it's been +2014 年左右为遏制中国而做出的决定， + +963 +00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,920 +systematically applied since then and +从那时起它就被系统地应用， + +964 +00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,079 +it's not a surprise that Biden +拜登 + +965 +00:41:28,079 --> 00:41:30,839 +kept all the things that Trump did and +保留了特朗普所做的所有事情并 + +966 +00:41:30,839 --> 00:41:33,160 +added more and now Trump says I'm going +添加了更多内容，这并不奇怪。 现在特朗普说我将 + +967 +00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:35,319 +to do all the things that Biden has kept +做拜登保留的所有事情， + +968 +00:41:35,319 --> 00:41:37,640 +in place and I'm going to do more this +而且我将做得更多，这 + +969 +00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,440 +is not a self-inflicted wound the United +不是自残， + +970 +00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,800 +States has closed the market to China +美国已经对中国关闭了市场， + +971 +00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,960 +okay is that smart no it's not smart is +好吧，这很聪明，不，不是 聪明的是 + +972 +00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:51,040 +it leading to uh is it by the way +这会导致呃，顺便说一句， + +973 +00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:55,240 +recuperating American manufacturing jobs +美国制造业就业岗位恢复 + +974 +00:41:55,240 --> 00:41:58,480 +zero it may shift them a bit it make may +为零，这可能会稍微改变它们，这可能会 + +975 +00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,760 +make things less efficient it may may +降低效率，这可能 + +976 +00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,520 +make all of you lose a bit more money or +会让你们所有人损失更多的钱，或者 + +977 +00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:07,520 +not make as much money but is it going +赚不到那么多钱，但这会 + +978 +00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,520 +to solve any single economic problem in +吗？ 解决美国的任何单一经济问题 + +979 +00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:14,079 +the United States no way let +不可能让 + +980 +00:42:14,079 --> 00:42:17,920 +me John let let John spicy I I just want +我约翰让让约翰辣我我只是 + +981 +00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,000 +to ask Jeff a question on +想问杰夫一个关于 + +982 +00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:24,359 +this uh my argument is that this is the +这个的问题呃我的论点是这就是 + +983 +00:42:24,359 --> 00:42:27,240 +way the world Works yes I know and it is +世界运作的方式是的我知道，事实就是 + +984 +00:42:27,240 --> 00:42:30,400 +and it is but if I'm describing how the +如此，但是 如果我正在描述世界是如何 + +985 +00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:33,960 +world really works how do you beat me +运作的 你打败我了吗， + +986 +00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,520 +the the reason is you've described a +因为你描述了一个 + +987 +00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:39,160 +world you've described I think better +你所描述的世界，我认为 + +988 +00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:43,839 +than any person I ever read or know how +比我读过的任何人或了解 + +989 +00:42:43,839 --> 00:42:46,680 +American foreign policy works I think +美国外交政策如何运作的人都更好，我认为 + +990 +00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,680 +it's likely to get us all blown up you +这可能会让我们所有人都炸毁， + +991 +00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:53,440 +you not and you title not not because of +你不是，你是标题 不是因为 + +992 +00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:55,720 +John but because he made an accurate +约翰，而是因为他准确地描述了 + +993 +00:42:55,720 --> 00:42:59,200 +description of a profoundly misguided +一种被严重误导的 + +994 +00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,000 +approach which +做法，即 + +995 +00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:05,160 +is power seeking even if you're safe as +寻求权力，即使你作为 + +996 +00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:08,440 +a regional hegemon you're never safe if +地区霸主是安全的，但如果 + +997 +00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:10,559 +another Regional hegemon does what you +另一个地区霸主做了你 + +998 +00:43:10,559 --> 00:43:12,760 +do no you can't allow that to happen so +所做的事，你就永远不会安全，你不能允许 要发生这种情况，所以 + +999 +00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:14,680 +you have to metal every single place in +你必须金属化每一个 世界上唯一的地方， + +1000 +00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,000 +the world this now all I'm saying wait +现在我要说的一切，等等， + +1001 +00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:19,200 +let me just finish because it's +让我说完，因为 + +1002 +00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:22,240 +important that it is important to +重要的是，重要的是 + +1003 +00:43:22,240 --> 00:43:25,480 +say try this in the nuclear age you +要说在核时代尝试这个，你 + +1004 +00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:27,640 +don't get a second chance +没有第二次机会， + +1005 +00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,119 +so this to me is the most definitive +所以这对我来说是最明确的 + +1006 +00:43:31,119 --> 00:43:35,359 +fact of Our Lives which is we are now in +事实 我们的生活，我们现在正处于 + +1007 +00:43:35,359 --> 00:43:39,280 +a war direct War direct War not proxy +一场战争中，直接战争，不是代理 + +1008 +00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:42,040 +war direct war with Russia which has +战争，与拥有6000枚核弹头的俄罗斯直接战争， + +1009 +00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:45,599 +6,000 nuclear warheads I can't think of + +1010 +00:43:45,599 --> 00:43:48,599 +anything more imbecilic than that aside +除了我一步一步知道的事实之外，我想不出还有什么比这更愚蠢的了， + +1011 +00:43:48,599 --> 00:43:51,079 +from the fact that I know step by step + +1012 +00:43:51,079 --> 00:43:54,119 +because I saw it with my own eyes how we +因为我看到了 我亲眼所见 我们是如何 + +1013 +00:43:54,119 --> 00:43:56,319 +got into that mess because we thought we +陷入混乱的，因为我们认为我们 + +1014 +00:43:56,319 --> 00:44:00,280 +had to medal up to including putting +必须获得奖牌，包括让 + +1015 +00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:03,319 +NATO into Georgia in the caucuses of all +北约进入格鲁吉亚和乌克兰的所有地方的预选会议， + +1016 +00:44:03,319 --> 00:44:06,880 +places and Ukraine so we made that +所以我们做到了， + +1017 +00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,760 +because we have to medal because we +因为我们必须获得奖牌，因为 + +1018 +00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,400 +couldn't let good enough uh stand if we +如果我们这样做，我们就不能让足够好的呃站起来 + +1019 +00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:16,000 +do the same with China there will be a +与中国一样，也会有一场 + +1020 +00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:19,240 +war but it's not like reading about the +战争，但这不像阅读 + +1021 +00:44:19,240 --> 00:44:22,200 +Crimean War or World War One or World +克里米亚战争、第一次世界大战或 + +1022 +00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,240 +War II that's my difference this is a +第二次世界大战，这是我的区别，这是一个 + +1023 +00:44:25,240 --> 00:44:27,400 +fine theory that explains a lot of +很好的理论，可以解释很多 + +1024 +00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:32,200 +things but damn if you can make chat GPT +事情，但是该死的，如果你可以聊天 GPT + +1025 +00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:35,520 +or you can make Optimus or you can make +或者你 可以使擎天柱或 你可以做 + +1026 +00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:39,000 +all the rest we can avoid nuclear war so +剩下的一切，我们可以避免核战争，所以 + +1027 +00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,040 +just do a little bit better than saying +只要比说 + +1028 +00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:43,079 +it's +这是 + +1029 +00:44:43,079 --> 00:44:45,119 +inevitable all right +不可避免的好一点，好吧， + +1030 +00:44:45,119 --> 00:44:47,280 +so we only have a minute left so I want +所以我们只剩下一分钟了，所以我 + +1031 +00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:49,240 +to give it to John I just want to ask he +想把它交给约翰，我只是想问他 + +1032 +00:44:49,240 --> 00:44:50,520 +had a question I know but we only have a +有一个我知道的问题 但我们 + +1033 +00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,440 +minute left and it's we got to add five +只剩下一分钟了，我们必须增加五 + +1034 +00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,000 +minutes this is the best panel I've ever +分钟，这是 + +1035 +00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:55,760 +been on in my life can we just add 10 +我一生中参加过的最好的小组，我们可以只增加 10 + +1036 +00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,040 +minutes minutes we got to add 5 or 10 +分钟吗？我们必须增加 5 或 10 + +1037 +00:44:58,040 --> 00:44:59,800 +minutes the best panel is this the best +分钟，最好的小组是这个 有史以来最好的 + +1038 +00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,920 +panel ever I feel like calling a respond +小组，我想做出回应 + +1039 +00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:05,319 +wa wa before okay we got 5 minutes so +哇哇，好的，我们有 5 分钟的时间，所以 + +1040 +00:45:05,319 --> 00:45:07,800 +before before we leave this topic John +在我们离开这个话题之前，约翰， + +1041 +00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,240 +your book is called the tragedy of great +你的书叫做《大 + +1042 +00:45:10,240 --> 00:45:12,720 +power politics you clearly understand +国政治的悲剧》，你清楚地了解 + +1043 +00:45:12,720 --> 00:45:15,559 +the tragic aspect of how great power + +1044 +00:45:15,559 --> 00:45:17,800 +rivalry great power competition can lead +大国竞争如何导致 + +1045 +00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:19,960 +to disaster what Jeff is saying is we're +灾难的悲剧性方面，杰夫所说的是我们 现在正 + +1046 +00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:22,040 +now in the nuclear age and it's going to +处于核时代，它将 + +1047 +00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:25,079 +lead to nuclear war so do we have to be +导致核战争，所以我们必须 + +1048 +00:45:25,079 --> 00:45:28,559 +on this path or is there way off of it +走这条路还是还有很长的路要走， + +1049 +00:45:28,559 --> 00:45:32,400 +two points in my heart I'm with Jeff in +我心里有两点我和杰夫在一起， + +1050 +00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:36,240 +my head I'm not with Jeff I wish he were +我不和杰夫在一起 我希望他是 + +1051 +00:45:36,240 --> 00:45:38,599 +right but I don't believe he's right to +对的，但我不相信 他 + +1052 +00:45:38,599 --> 00:45:41,559 +answer your question head-on I believe +正面回答你的问题是正确的，我相信我们 + +1053 +00:45:41,559 --> 00:45:43,960 +that there is no way out we are in an +没有出路，我们被关在 + +1054 +00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:46,240 +iron cage this is just the way +铁笼子里，这就是 + +1055 +00:45:46,240 --> 00:45:48,559 +International politics works and it's +国际政治的运作方式， + +1056 +00:45:48,559 --> 00:45:50,640 +because you're in an anarchic system +因为你处于一个无政府主义的体系中， + +1057 +00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:52,160 +where you can never be sure that a +你永远无法确定一个 + +1058 +00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:53,880 +really powerful state in the system +真正的 系统中的强大国家 + +1059 +00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:55,960 +won't come after you and inflict A +不会追随你并给你造成一个 + +1060 +00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,359 +Century of national humiliation on you +世纪的国耻， + +1061 +00:45:58,359 --> 00:46:01,119 +so you go to Great Lengths to avoid that +所以你会竭尽全力避免这种情况， + +1062 +00:46:01,119 --> 00:46:04,400 +by trying to gain power at the expense +试图以牺牲另一个国家为代价来获得权力 + +1063 +00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:07,000 +of another power and that leads to all +，这会导致 + +1064 +00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,720 +sorts of trouble can War be avoided I +战争中的各种麻烦 避免我 + +1065 +00:46:10,720 --> 00:46:12,760 +like to distinguish between security +喜欢 区分 + +1066 +00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,160 +competition which I think is inevitable +我认为不可避免的安全竞争 + +1067 +00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:17,040 +and War which is where security +和安全 + +1068 +00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,920 +competition evolves into war I think War +竞争演变成战争的战争我认为战争是 + +1069 +00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:22,440 +can be avoided and we were thankfully +可以避免的，值得庆幸的是，我们 + +1070 +00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:24,280 +successful in that regard during the +在冷战期间在这方面取得了成功 + +1071 +00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:27,040 +Cold War and hopefully that will be the +，希望 + +1072 +00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,960 +case uh in the US China competition +美国也是如此 竞争 + +1073 +00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:34,520 +moving forward can I guarantee that no +继续前进 我可以保证不， + +1074 +00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:38,440 +uh does this disturb me greatly yes but +呃，这是否让我很不安，是的，但这 + +1075 +00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:41,200 +again this is just a tragic aspect of +只是世界的一个悲惨的方面， + +1076 +00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,640 +the world let me just ask one because +让我问一个，因为 + + +# Conflict in the Middle East and the path to peace + +1077 +00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:45,599 +we're a little bit I know we were going +我们有点我知道我们将 + +1078 +00:46:45,599 --> 00:46:47,359 +to try and talk about Middle East for a +尝试谈论中东 对于 + +1079 +00:46:47,359 --> 00:46:49,160 +good chunk of this so I just want a +其中很大一部分，所以我只想要一个 + +1080 +00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:52,359 +scenario uh uh propose or kind of give +场景呃 呃建议或者给 + +1081 +00:46:52,359 --> 00:46:54,160 +you guys a scenario get your reaction +你们一个场景，让你们做出反应， + +1082 +00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:55,680 +because it is kind of what feels to be +因为这感觉像是 + +1083 +00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:58,880 +the most imminent uh theater of conflict +最迫在眉睫的冲突战场 + +1084 +00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:03,359 +uh the West Bank um the the Israelis are +呃西岸嗯以色列人正在 + +1085 +00:47:03,359 --> 00:47:05,480 +buttressing the settlements there's a +支持定居点有 + +1086 +00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:07,079 +lot of checkpoints things are getting +很多检查站事情变得 + +1087 +00:47:07,079 --> 00:47:09,000 +very tense they're running raids and +非常严重 紧张局势，他们正在进行突袭， + +1088 +00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:10,400 +it's becoming a very difficult place to +这对巴勒斯坦人来说已经成为一个非常困难的 + +1089 +00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:11,839 +live for Palestinians and there's a real +居住地，人们真正 + +1090 +00:47:11,839 --> 00:47:13,559 +concern that the West Bank collapses and +担心西岸崩溃， + +1091 +00:47:13,559 --> 00:47:16,480 +Israelis and Israelis but there's a real +以色列人和以色列人，但西岸确实存在 + +1092 +00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:18,520 +risk that the West Bank collapses and +风险 + +1093 +00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:21,760 +turns into a real conflict Zone if that +如果发生这种情况，约旦就会崩溃并变成真正的冲突区， + +1094 +00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:24,040 +happens the jordanians are sitting right +约旦人就坐在 + +1095 +00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:24,960 +there and they're not going to let +那里，他们不会让 + +1096 +00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:26,520 +Palestinians get slaughtered they're +巴勒斯坦人被屠杀，他们 + +1097 +00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:27,760 +going to have to do something and +将不得不做点什么，而且 + +1098 +00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:29,839 +they're such a strong Ally of the United +他们是美国如此强大的盟友 + +1099 +00:47:29,839 --> 00:47:33,079 +States does that trigger a +引发一场 + +1100 +00:47:33,079 --> 00:47:36,000 +theater of response where what is Saudi +反应，沙特 + +1101 +00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:37,839 +going to do are others going to be drawn +将做什么，其他国家将被吸引 + +1102 +00:47:37,839 --> 00:47:39,880 +to the region does the collapse of the +到该地区，西岸的崩溃 + +1103 +00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:41,760 +West Bank or the the the conflict that +或 + +1104 +00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,599 +seems to be brewing in the West Bank +西岸似乎正在酝酿的冲突是否 + +1105 +00:47:43,599 --> 00:47:46,280 +become this kind of Tinder Box for +会成为这种火药盒？ + +1106 +00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:48,240 +everyone showing up and getting involved +每个人都出现并参与其中 + +1107 +00:47:48,240 --> 00:47:51,520 +and um uh and create some sort of +嗯嗯，制造某种 + +1108 +00:47:51,520 --> 00:47:53,839 +regional issue that we get drawn into in +区域问题，我们会以 + +1109 +00:47:53,839 --> 00:47:57,240 +a bigger way can I start and have John +更大的方式卷入其中 + +1110 +00:47:57,240 --> 00:48:00,200 +have the last word uh you know I I work + +1111 +00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:04,000 +uh each day at the UN um and discuss + +1112 +00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:05,760 +this issue with ambassadors from all + +1113 +00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:06,760 +over the + +1114 +00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:10,599 +world there is over the last 50 years a +在过去的 50 年里，世界就如何 + +1115 +00:48:10,599 --> 00:48:14,160 +a an agreement on what would make for +实现和平达成了一项协议 + +1116 +00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:19,119 +peace and the agreement is uh two states +，该协议是呃两个国家 + +1117 +00:48:19,119 --> 00:48:22,040 +uh maybe with a big wall between them on +呃，也许在 + +1118 +00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,880 +the 4th of June 1967 borders with a +1967 年 6 月 4 日，它们之间有一堵高墙，以 + +1119 +00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:27,319 +state of Palestine +巴勒斯坦国为边界 + +1120 +00:48:27,319 --> 00:48:30,920 +being the 194th UN member state and its +联合国第194个成员国及其 + +1121 +00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:33,400 +capital in East Jerusalem and control +首都在东耶路撒冷并 + +1122 +00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:36,760 +over the Islamic holy sites and that is +控制伊斯兰圣地这就是 + +1123 +00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:39,240 +international law the international +国际法 + +1124 +00:48:39,240 --> 00:48:41,640 +court of justice just reaffirmed that +国际法院刚刚重申以色列 + +1125 +00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:44,000 +the Israeli settlements in the West Bank +在约旦河西岸的定居点 + +1126 +00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:47,760 +are illegal uh the uh international +是非法的呃呃国际 + +1127 +00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:51,400 +criminal court uh uh is likely to find +刑事法庭呃呃很可能 发现 + +1128 +00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:53,680 +or icj is likely to find that Israel is +或国际法院很可能会发现以色列 + +1129 +00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,240 +in violation of the 1948 genocide +违反了1948年的《种族灭绝 + +1130 +00:48:56,240 --> 00:48:57,319 +convention +公约》， + +1131 +00:48:57,319 --> 00:48:59,799 +which I very much believe it to be in +我非常相信它 + +1132 +00:48:59,799 --> 00:49:04,119 +violation so my own solution to this is +违反了这一公约，所以我自己的解决方案是 + +1133 +00:49:04,119 --> 00:49:07,000 +Implement International law two states +实施国际法，两个国家 + +1134 +00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:09,200 +build the wall as high as you need to +根据需要修建隔离墙 + +1135 +00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:12,920 +build but uh you give Palestinian rights +建立但是呃你给予巴勒斯坦人权利 + +1136 +00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,319 +you establish a state of Palestine you +你建立一个巴勒斯坦国你 + +1137 +00:49:15,319 --> 00:49:17,520 +stop the Israeli Slaughter of +阻止以色列对巴勒斯坦人的屠杀 + +1138 +00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:19,520 +Palestinians you stop the Israeli +你阻止以色列 + +1139 +00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:23,200 +apartheid state and uh you have uh two +种族隔离国家并且呃你有两个 + +1140 +00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:26,280 +states living side by side Israel is +国家毗邻共存以色列 + +1141 +00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:29,680 +dead set against that uh the entire +坚决反对呃整个 + +1142 +00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:33,880 +Israeli political uh governance now is +以色列政治呃 现在的治理 + +1143 +00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:35,799 +dead set against that hundreds of +坚决反对， + +1144 +00:49:35,799 --> 00:49:38,520 +thousands of illegal settlers in the +西岸数十万非法定居者 + +1145 +00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:40,559 +West Bank are dead set against that +坚决反对， + +1146 +00:49:40,559 --> 00:49:44,680 +smotrich benir Galant Netanyahu are dead +斯莫特里奇·贝尼尔·加兰特·内塔尼亚胡也 + +1147 +00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:47,599 +set against that so my view is it has +坚决反对，所以我的观点是，这 + +1148 +00:49:47,599 --> 00:49:49,599 +nothing to do with what Israel wants it +与以色列希望它 + +1149 +00:49:49,599 --> 00:49:51,079 +has to do with enforcement of +做的事情无关。 与执行 + +1150 +00:49:51,079 --> 00:49:53,760 +international law so I want to see this +国际法有关，所以我希望看到这一 + +1151 +00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,760 +imposed not because Israel agrees to it +规定的实施不是因为以色列同意， + +1152 +00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:59,720 +but because it is imposed and there is +而是因为它被实施了，并且有 + +1153 +00:49:59,720 --> 00:50:02,240 +one country that stands in the way of +一个国家阻碍 + +1154 +00:50:02,240 --> 00:50:05,920 +imposing this not Iran not the Saudis +实施这一规定，不是伊朗，不是沙特， + +1155 +00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:09,760 +not Egypt not Russia not China not any +不是埃及，不是俄罗斯，不是中国，不是任何国家 + +1156 +00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:11,640 +country in the European Union one +欧盟国家，一个 + +1157 +00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:13,880 +country and one country alone and that +国家，一个国家，那 + +1158 +00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:16,240 +is because of the United States of +是因为 + +1159 +00:50:16,240 --> 00:50:19,760 +America and the is Israel Lobby somebody +美利坚合众国和以色列游说团，有人也 + +1160 +00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:21,480 +wrote a very good book about that too +写了一本关于这个问题的非常好的书， + +1161 +00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:23,480 +that I know uh the best book ever +我知道 + +1162 +00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:27,680 +written about it by John uh uh and um +约翰有史以来写过最好的书 嗯， + +1163 +00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,200 +that's what stops the solution that +这就是阻止解决方案的原因 + +1164 +00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:32,520 +could bring peace and I believe we +可以带来和平，我相信我们 + +1165 +00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:35,319 +should bring peace because not only +应该带来和平，因为 + +1166 +00:50:35,319 --> 00:50:36,640 +would that bring peace to the +这不仅可以给 + +1167 +00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:39,119 +Palestinians and peace to the Israelis +巴勒斯坦人和以色列人带来和平， + +1168 +00:50:39,119 --> 00:50:41,599 +but it would avoid potentially another +而且可以避免另一次可能 + +1169 +00:50:41,599 --> 00:50:44,599 +flasho that could easily end up in World +很容易导致第二次世界大战的闪现 + +1170 +00:50:44,599 --> 00:50:48,319 +War II let me answer your question about +让我回答你关于 + +1171 +00:50:48,319 --> 00:50:50,799 +escalation potential the jordanians +升级可能性的问题 以色列 + +1172 +00:50:50,799 --> 00:50:54,640 +coming in uh Israel faces three big +面临着三大 + +1173 +00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:56,640 +problems aside from problems with +问题，除了 + +1174 +00:50:56,640 --> 00:50:59,440 +centrifical forces inside the society +社会内部的离心力问题， + +1175 +00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:01,760 +one is the Palestinian problem which is +一是 + +1176 +00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:04,599 +both in Gaza and in the West Bank it's +加沙和西岸的巴勒斯坦问题， + +1177 +00:51:04,599 --> 00:51:08,960 +one two is Hezbollah and three is +一是真主党，三是 + +1178 +00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,839 +Iran I think there is virtually no +伊朗，我认为几乎没有 + +1179 +00:51:11,839 --> 00:51:14,720 +chance of what you described happening +机会 你所描述的情况 + +1180 +00:51:14,720 --> 00:51:16,640 +which is if the Israelis were to go on a +是，如果以色列人 + +1181 +00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:18,760 +rampage in the West Bank similar what +在约旦河西岸横冲直撞，就像 + +1182 +00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:21,280 +they've done in Gaza that the jordanians +他们在加沙所做的那样，约旦人 + +1183 +00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:23,119 +would come in or the Egyptians or the +或埃及人或 + +1184 +00:51:23,119 --> 00:51:25,319 +Saudis they simply don't have the +沙特人就会进来，他们根本不具备 + +1185 +00:51:25,319 --> 00:51:28,200 +military capability this is a scenario +这样的军事能力 + +1186 +00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:31,400 +where the Israelis completely dominate +以色列人完全占主导地位的情况， + +1187 +00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:33,920 +so in terms of escalation with regard to +所以就 + +1188 +00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:36,520 +the Israel Palestine problem I don't +以色列巴勒斯坦问题的升级而言，我 + +1189 +00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:39,079 +think there's much potential Hezbollah +认为真主党没有太大的潜力， + +1190 +00:51:39,079 --> 00:51:42,160 +is a different issue uh but mainly +是一个不同的问题，呃，但主要是 + +1191 +00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:45,119 +because it's linked with Iran right and +因为它与伊朗权利有关，而 + +1192 +00:51:45,119 --> 00:51:48,559 +Iran is the really dangerous flasho +伊朗才是真正的问题 这是危险的闪现， + +1193 +00:51:48,559 --> 00:51:50,240 +because as you know the Russians are now +因为正如你所知，俄罗斯人现在 + +1194 +00:51:50,240 --> 00:51:52,359 +closely allied with the Iranians the +与伊朗人紧密结盟， + +1195 +00:51:52,359 --> 00:51:55,200 +Chinese are moving in that direction as +中国人也在朝这个方向前进 + +1196 +00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:57,119 +well and +， + +1197 +00:51:57,119 --> 00:52:00,720 +if Israel gets involved in a war with +如果以色列卷入与 + +1198 +00:52:00,720 --> 00:52:03,359 +Iran we're going to come in in all +伊朗的战争，我们很可能会介入，还 + +1199 +00:52:03,359 --> 00:52:06,599 +likelihood remember when the Israelis +记得以色列人 + +1200 +00:52:06,599 --> 00:52:12,040 +attacked the uh the Iranian Embassy in +袭击伊朗时的情况吗？ 嗯，伊朗驻 + +1201 +00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:16,280 +Damascus on April 1st on April +大马士革大使馆于 4 月 1 日和 4 月 + +1202 +00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:19,760 +14th the Iranians retaliated reciprocal +14 日，伊朗人进行了报复性 + +1203 +00:52:19,760 --> 00:52:22,440 +response yeah but but we were involved +回应，是的，但我们参与了， + +1204 +00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:24,319 +we were we were forewarned weren't we +我们被预先警告了，不是 + +1205 +00:52:24,319 --> 00:52:25,920 +yes we were forewarned but the point is +吗，是的，我们被预先警告了，但重点是 + +1206 +00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,319 +that we were involved in the fighting +我们 参与战斗 + +1207 +00:52:28,319 --> 00:52:30,559 +right we were involved with the Israelis +吧，我们与以色列人、 + +1208 +00:52:30,559 --> 00:52:32,040 +with the French the British the +法国人、英国人、 + +1209 +00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:33,960 +jordanians and the Saudis we were all +约旦人和沙特人都 + +1210 +00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:36,319 +involved in the fighting so this gets at +参与了战斗，所以 + +1211 +00:52:36,319 --> 00:52:39,640 +the escalation problem now to counter +现在要解决升级问题，以应对 + +1212 +00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:43,319 +the Iranian escalation scenario the fact +伊朗升级的情况，事实 + +1213 +00:52:43,319 --> 00:52:45,680 +is Iran does not want a war with the +是伊朗不希望发生冲突。 与 + +1214 +00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:48,160 +United States and the United States does +美国的战争，美国 + +1215 +00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:51,000 +not want a war with Iran and it's the +不想与伊朗发生战争，而 + +1216 +00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:54,000 +Israelis especially Benjamin Netanyahu +以色列人，尤其是本杰明·内塔尼亚胡 + +1217 +00:52:54,000 --> 00:52:55,960 +has been who has been trying to sort of +一直试图将 + +1218 +00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:59,160 +suck us into a war because he wants us +我们卷入一场战争，因为他希望我们 + +1219 +00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:02,920 +the United States to really whack Iran +美国能够真正削弱伊朗 + +1220 +00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:05,440 +weaken it militarily and especially to +它在军事上，特别是在 + +1221 +00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:07,480 +go after its nuclear capabilities +追求其核能力， + +1222 +00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:09,559 +because as you well know they are close +因为众所周知，他们已经 + +1223 +00:53:09,559 --> 00:53:11,400 +to the point where they can develop +接近可以发展 + +1224 +00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:13,880 +nuclear weapons so the Israelis are the +核武器的地步，所以以色列人 + +1225 +00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:17,280 +ones who want us to get involved in a +希望我们卷入 + +1226 +00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:19,720 +big war with Iran that's the escalation +与伊朗的一场大战，这是升级的 + +1227 +00:53:19,720 --> 00:53:22,880 +flasho and The $64,000 question is +闪光和 64,000 美元的问题是， + +1228 +00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:25,000 +whether you think the United States and +你是否认为美国和 + +1229 +00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:28,880 +Iran kind of loting can work together to +伊朗的抽签可以共同努力， + +1230 +00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:31,359 +prevent the Israelis from getting us +阻止以色列人让我们知道， + +1231 +00:53:31,359 --> 00:53:32,640 +that that question will be answered + +1232 +00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:35,799 +based on the next who who who leads the + +1233 +00:53:35,799 --> 00:53:38,920 +next Administration well if you believe +如果你认为 + +1234 +00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:41,040 +that it matters who leads the next +谁很重要，那么这个问题将根据下一任谁领导下一届政府来回答。 线索 下届 + +1235 +00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:43,119 +Administration that's +政府是 + +1236 +00:53:43,119 --> 00:53:46,839 +true take it out thank you let me just +真的，把它拿出来，谢谢，让我只 + +1237 +00:53:46,839 --> 00:53:51,760 +say Jeffrey and John now I know why saxs +说杰弗里和约翰，现在我知道为什么萨克斯也 + +1238 +00:53:51,760 --> 00:53:53,920 +will not stop talking about you too this +不会停止谈论你，这 + +1239 +00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:56,040 +was the most amazing panel of the event +是迄今为止最令人惊奇的活动小组， + +1240 +00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:58,880 +so far are give it up for Jeffrey Sachs +放弃杰弗里·萨克斯 + +1241 +00:53:58,880 --> 00:54:01,799 +and John Mir shimer all +和约翰·米尔 闪光 + +1242 +00:54:01,799 --> 00:54:05,799 +right wow +好吧哇 + diff --git a/source/_posts/kcpp_intro.md b/source/_posts/kcpp_intro.md index 307b0db8c1..dc72e699f6 100644 --- a/source/_posts/kcpp_intro.md +++ b/source/_posts/kcpp_intro.md @@ -5,7 +5,6 @@ tags: - KCP categories: - NP -top: 1 --- diff --git "a/source/_posts/\345\244\232\344\272\272\345\277\253\350\212\202\345\245\217\346\270\270\346\210\217\344\272\224\344\271\213\346\274\224\347\244\272Demo.md" "b/source/_posts/\345\244\232\344\272\272\345\277\253\350\212\202\345\245\217\346\270\270\346\210\217\344\272\224\344\271\213\346\274\224\347\244\272Demo.md" index ef4aa0a9af..05e9d1d565 100644 --- "a/source/_posts/\345\244\232\344\272\272\345\277\253\350\212\202\345\245\217\346\270\270\346\210\217\344\272\224\344\271\213\346\274\224\347\244\272Demo.md" +++ 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