2023-04-16-MyTeam-MyModel-Abstract.md

Summary of results

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Explanation of observed dynamics given model assumptions

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Model assumptions: please describe:

Number/type of immune classes considered

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Initial distribution of susceptibility (if available)

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Initial variant characteristics (transmissibility of variants at t=0, and how uncertainty or non-identifiability was handled)

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Details about calibration of immunity at t=0 (calibration period considered, assumptions about/fitting of past immune escape and waning immunity, is the same calibration process used for all scenarios?)

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Details about modeling of immune escape after t=0 (including how projected immune escape is handled in scenarios, e.g., whether a stepwise or continuous escape was considered)

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Assumptions regarding waning immunity against infection and symptoms (including values used for the duration and level of protection against infection or symptomatic disease, whether a point estimate was used or a range, and distribution used)

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Assumptions regarding waning immunity against severe disease (including whether immunity against severe disease, conditional on infection, is fixed vs declines over time; and if it wanes, specify how)

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Describe the process used to set or calibrate disease severity, ie P(hosp given current infection) and P(death given current infection) details. What are the datasets used for calibration of the death targets?

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Seasonality implementation

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Is there a background level of non pharmaceutical interventions?

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Other updates in model assumptions from previous rounds (e.g., demographic dynamics)

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