This repository contains the raw data and a python notebook to ingest historical A&E attendance data and then use a simple Prophet model to predict the number of A&E attendances in England if the COVID-19 pandemic had not happened. The predicted A&E attendance values from (2020-01 to 2021-12) are then compared to the actual data to quantify the impact of the pandemic on A&E attendances.
Raw monthly A&E attendance data sourced from NHS England; HERE
Further infromation of AE attendance data can be found HERE
The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model when predicting the last 12 months of data is 26%.
Percent difference in actual total A&E attendances vs. predicted attendances during the course of the COVID-19 Pandemic
