GMAGAO-X R-09 Science Impact of Late Readiness of GMT

[dmkelly42]

Risk creation date: 8/26/2023

Last Modified: 8/26/2023

Risk type: Scientific Impact

Risk Approach: Mitigate

Risk Owner: Doug Kelly

Risk Statement:

If the GMT is not operational on its nominal development schedule, then the science planned for GMagAO-X might be performed by another instrument at another observatory.

Risk Effects:

GMagAO-X has the specific objective of being the first instrument to make direct observations of exoplanets in the habitable zone around nearby stars in reflected visible light. If another instrument achieves this objective ahead of GMagAO-X, it lessens the impact of our project.

Risk Assessment:

Risk Ratings	Likelihood	Consequence
Initial	3	3
Current	3	3
Target	1	2

Initial Risk Notes:
The GMT is not currently advertised a plan to start scientific observations until the observatory is complete. The GMT development timeline could be slowed by any number of technical, funding, staffing, or political issues. If extreme-AO instruments were developed for the TMT or ELT ahead of completion of the GMT, they might have the combination of contrast and sensitivity needed to match the GMagAO-X goals. The Roman Space Telescope might attempt similar science, albeit with a 2.4m primary mirror. Pearl will attempt to do something similar with about a 2.5m subaperture of a 6.5m primary mirror, with more ambitious goals possible on a second mission.

Risk Notes/Updates:

Cost Impacts:

Estimated cost if risk is realized:

Explanation for cost risk:

Risk mitigation list:

• Negotiate with GMTO to be allowed to start observations when the GMT has 1-4 primary mirrors available rather than its full complement

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