diff --git a/data/wp_data.csv b/data/wp_data.csv index a4c1ce1..5fd1f18 100644 --- a/data/wp_data.csv +++ b/data/wp_data.csv @@ -2387,3 +2387,31 @@ Financial Conditions and Risks to the Economic Outlook,"Andrea Ajello, Giovanni Nonlinear Effects of Loan-to-Value Constraints,C. Bora Durdu and Sergio Villalvazo,"This paper investigates the impact of loan-to-value (LtV) borrowing constraints in models with occasionally binding credit constraints. These constraints give rise to a Fisherian debt-deflation mechanism, where exogenous shocks can trigger cascading effects resulting in significant declines in consumption, asset prices, and borrowing reversals—characteristic of financial crises. However, recent literature challenges traditional view by suggesting that collateral constraints may not always exacerbate financial disturbances but could instead foster dynamics leading to multiple equilibria. Building on this discussion, the paper explores equilibrium asset pricing models with LtV collateral constraints, identifying critical thresholds that govern asset price dynamics, consumption patterns, and current account behaviors. Our analysis uncovers that when the LtV limit is close to zero, tighter constraints induce smaller drops in consumption during crises. Conversely, when the LtV limit is close to one, we observe that tighter constraints induce larger drops in consumption during crises. The nonlinear relationship between the LtV ratio and adverse effects on macroeconomic outcomes aligns with cross-country evidence regarding the relationship between the level of financial development and the severity of consumption declines during crises.",https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/nonlinear-effects-of-loan-to-value-constraints.htm,2024-081,September 2024,FED-BOARD,09/21/2024 Do Bill Shocks Induce Energy Efficiency Investments?,"Corey Lang, Kevin Nakolan, David S. Rapson and Reid Taylor",Inattention can lead to suboptimal investment in energy efficiency. We study whether electricity bill shocks draw attention to the benefits of home energy efficiency investments. Our novel identification strategy builds on the fact that prolonged extreme weather events (which raise electricity costs for many customers) fall within a single billing cycle for some customers but are split across cycles for others. We find that households exposed to average sized bill shocks are 22 percent more likely to invest in energy efficiency than households with normal bills. This result suggests that inattention is indeed a factor in residential energy decisions and utilities may be able to leverage bill shocks to promote efficiency investments.,https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/research/papers/2024/wp2405.pdf,2405,"July 16, 2024",FED-DALLAS,09/21/2024 Social Security and High-Frequency Labor Supply: Evidence from Uber Drivers,"Timothy K. M. Beatty, Joakim A. Weill","We estimate the impact of anticipated transfers on labor supply using confidential driver-level data from Uber. Leveraging the staggered timing of Social Security retirement benefits within each month and a novel identification strategy, we find that the labor supply of older drivers declines by 2%, on average, during the week of benefit receipt—a precisely estimated but economically small effect. Individual-level analyses reveal that the average effect obscures heterogeneous micro-behavior: while the majority of drivers do not meaningfully adjust labor supply in response to social security benefits, a small group reduces labor supply by more than 40%. The results suggest that departures from standard models of labor supply can be substantial, but only for a small number of individuals.",https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/social-security-and-high-frequency-labor-supply-evidence-from-uber-drivers.htm,2024-079,September 2024,FED-BOARD,09/21/2024 +The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,"Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin & David J. Deming","Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from the first nationally representative U.S. survey of generative AI adoption at work and at home. In August 2024, 39 percent of the U.S. population age 18-64 used generative AI. More than 24 percent of workers used it at least once in the week prior to being surveyed, and nearly one in nine used it every workday. Historical data on usage and mass-market product launches suggest that U.S. adoption of generative AI has been faster than adoption of the personal computer and the internet. Generative AI is a general purpose technology, in the sense that it is used in a wide range of occupations and job tasks at work and at home.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32966,32966,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +"Of Markets and Marriages: A Multidisciplinary, Multibook Review Essay of Recent Work on the Causes of U.S. Poverty",Elizabeth Ananat,"I discuss recent books offering differing explanations for persistent U.S. poverty. Desmond (2023) argues that aid to low-income Americans is captured by more powerful market actors. I contextualize this concern as about incidence and consider both policies for changing incidence (by changing outside options) and supplemental critiques focused on reducing deadweight loss as well as reapportioning surplus. Kearney (2023) argues that declining marriage means American children grow up in less-resourced families. I suggest this decline may reflect shortfalls in “soft” skills needed to make marriage efficient in an era when men are increasingly a source of family economic instability while women’s outside options improve. I consider policies to improve soft skills and policies supporting family economic stability, which could reduce spousal-skill requirements. I conclude by encouraging engagement with the emerging policy feedback literature, which explores why popular, evidence-based policies like those discussed have not so far been adopted in the U.S.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32967,32967,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Synthetic Data and Social Science Research: Accuracy Assessments and Practical Considerations from the SIPP Synthetic Beta,Jordan C. Stanley & Evan S. Totty,"Synthetic microdata – data retaining the structure of original microdata while replacing original values with modeled values for the sake of privacy – presents an opportunity to increase access to useful microdata for data users while meeting the privacy and confidentiality requirements for data providers. Synthetic data could be sufficient for many purposes, but lingering accuracy concerns could be addressed with a validation system through which the data providers run the external researcher’s code on the internal data and share cleared output with the researcher. The U.S. Census Bureau has experience running such systems. In this chapter, we first describe the role of synthetic data within a tiered data access system and the importance of synthetic data accuracy in achieving a viable synthetic data product. Next, we review results from a recent set of empirical analyses we conducted to assess accuracy in the Survey of Income & Program Participation (SIPP) Synthetic Beta (SSB), a Census Bureau product that made linked survey-administrative data publicly available. Given this analysis and our experience working on the SSB project, we conclude with thoughts and questions regarding future implementations of synthetic data with validation.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32979,32979,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Behavioral Attenuation,"Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber, Ryan Oprea & Jeffrey Yang","We report a large-scale examination of behavioral attenuation: due to information-processing constraints, the elasticity of people’s decisions with respect to economic fundamentals is generally too small. We implement more than 30 experiments, 20 of which were crowd-sourced from leading experts. These experiments cover a broad range of economic decisions, from choice and valuation to belief formation, from strategic games to generic optimization problems, involving investment, savings, effort supply, product demand, taxes, environmental externalities, fairness, cooperation, beauty contests, information disclosure, search, policy evaluation, memory, forecasting and inference. In 93% of our experiments, the elasticity of decisions to fundamentals decreases in participants’ cognitive uncertainty, our measure of the severity of information-processing constraints. Moreover, in decision problems with objective solutions, we observe elasticities that are universally smaller than is optimal. Many widely-studied decision anomalies represent special cases of behavioral attenuation. We discuss both its limits and why it often gives rise to the classic phenomenon of diminishing sensitivity.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32973,32973,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Who should work how much?,"Timo Boppart, Per Krusell & Jonna Olsson","A production efficiency perspective naturally leads to the prescription that more productive individuals should work more than less productive individuals. Yet, systematic differences in actual hours worked across high- and low-wage individuals are barely noticeable. We highlight that the insurance available to households is an important determinant behind this fact. Using a dynamic heterogeneous-agent model with insurance frictions, income effects calibrated to match aggregate hours across time and space, and financial frictions that deliver realistic wealth dispersion, we report stark effects of insurance: perfect insurance would raise aggregate labor productivity by 9.6 percent and decrease hours worked by 7.7 percent.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32977,32977,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Cultural Remittances and Modern Fertility,"Mickael Melki, Hillel Rapoport, Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg","We argue that migrants played a significant role in the diffusion of the demographic transition from France to the rest of Europe in the late 19th century. Employing novel data on French immigration from other European regions from 1850 to 1930, we find that higher immigration to France translated into lower fertility in the region of origin after a few decades - both in cross-region regressions for various periods, and in a panel setting with region fixed effects. These results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of controls, and across multiple specifications. We also find that immigrants who themselves became French citizens achieved lower fertility, particularly those who moved to French regions with the lowest fertility levels. We interpret these findings in terms of cultural remittances, consistently with insights from a theoretical framework where migrants act as vectors of cultural diffusion, spreading new information, social norms and preferences pertaining to modern fertility to their regions of origin.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32990,32990,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +"Theodore Roosevelt, the Election of 1912, and the Founding of the Federal Reserve",Matthew S. Jaremski & David C. Wheelock,"The Federal Reserve Act was the outcome of compromises among competing economic and political interests. Numerous studies examine how the act came together but largely take the makeup of Congress and the Administration as given rather than considering the unique circumstances that led to that political distribution. This paper examines how the election of 1912 changed the makeup of Congress and increased the likelihood of central banking legislation and shaped the act. The decision of Theodore Roosevelt and other Progressives to run as third-party candidates split the Republican Party and enabled Democrats to capture the White House and Congress. We show that the election produced a less polarized Congress and that newly-elected members were more likely to vote for the act. Absent their interparty split, Republicans would likely have held the White House and Congress, and any legislation to establish a central bank almost certainly would have been quite different.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32987,32987,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +"Exchange Rates, Natural Rates, and the Price of Risk",Rohan Kekre & Moritz Lenel,"We study the source of exchange rate fluctuations using a general equilibrium model accommodating shocks in goods and financial markets. These shocks differ in their induced comovements between exchange rates, interest rates, and quantities. A calibration matching data from the U.S. and G10 currency countries implies that persistent shocks to relative demand, reflected in persistent interest rate differentials, account for 75% of the variance in the dollar/G10 exchange rate. Shocks to currency intermediation are important, however, in generating deviations from uncovered interest parity at high frequencies and explaining the dollar appreciation in crises.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32976,32976,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Mining Chinese Historical Sources At Scale: A Machine Learning-Approach to Qing State Capacity,"Wolfgang Keller, Carol H. Shiue & Sen Yan","Primary historical sources are often by-passed for secondary sources due to high human costs of accessing and extracting primary information–especially in lower-resource settings. We propose a supervised machine-learning approach to the natural language processing of Chinese historical data. An application to identifying different forms of social unrest in the Veritable Records of the Qing Dynasty shows that approach cuts dramatically down the cost of using primary source data at the same time when it is free from human bias, reproducible, and flexible enough to address particular questions. External evidence on triggers of unrest also suggests that the computer-based approach is no less successful in identifying social unrest than human researchers are.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32982,32982,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Do Investor Differences Impact Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets?,"Ester Faia, Karen K. Lewis & Haonan Zhou","We re-examine monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies (EME) in the form of capital flow reversals, using sectoral-level securities holdings data for Euro Area investors. In response to a surprise monetary tightening, active investors such as investment funds re-balance their portfolios away from EME, while more passive, long term investors such as insurance funds and banks exhibit no significant reaction on average. For active investors, the reallocation out of EME appears stronger under synchronized monetary tightening between the Fed and the ECB. However, these investors may even inject more capital to EME securities when the monetary tightening surprises contain positive news about the Euro Area economy. Issuers' monetary-fiscal stability may explain the heterogeneous impact of these spillovers.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32986,32986,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +The Economics of Recycling Heterogeneity,Don Fullerton & Thomas C. Kinnaman,"We summarize the economics of recycling municipal solid waste. OECD data suggest that aggregate recycling rates in member countries have plateaued in recent decades. United States recycling rates for some materials remain low, even after decades of learning and participation. Major new policies may be required to increase recycling rates. Aggregate recycling targets are common in the US and OECD but may no longer be effective. We discuss many sources of recycling heterogeneity often ignored. First, recyclable materials are very different from each other. Economies and natural environments differ across space, and technologies change over time. Recycling policies that ignore heterogeneity are likely not set appropriately. If policy costs are low enough to set a unique recycling policy for each material in each locality, then a surgical recycling strategy may better serve society. Specific recycling policies for automobile batteries differ greatly from policies for yard waste, because these two materials are different. A surgical recycling policy could extend this practice, so that rules for aluminum cans differ from plastic jugs or glass bottles. Reaching future recycling targets could be frustrated by ignoring these heterogeneities across materials, locations, and time.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32981,32981,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Experimentally Validating Welfare Evaluation of School Vouchers,"Peter Arcidiacono, Karthik Muralidharan & John D. Singleton","We leverage a unique two-stage experiment that randomized access to private school vouchers across markets as well as students to estimate the revealed preference value of school choice. To do this, we estimate several choice models on data only from control markets before turning to the treatment data for model validation. This exercise reveals that a model where school choice is constrained by ability-to-pay achieves better out-of-sample fit but still underpredicts experimental take-up of the voucher offer. We then present evidence from treatment markets that: a) the voucher offer also induced search; and b) private schools used program surplus to incentivize enrollment. Further, we show that a unified model incorporating these features can explain both the control and treatment data patterns. Estimates from that model imply that a targeted voucher program would have a marginal value of public funds (MVPF) of at least 3.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32968,32968,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +"Moving to Opportunity, Together","Seema Jayachandran, Lea Nassal, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Marie Paul, Heather Sarsons & Elin Sundberg","Many couples face a trade-off between advancing one spouse’s career or the other’s. We study this trade-off using administrative data from Germany and Sweden. We first conduct an event-study analysis of couples moving across commuting zones and find that relocation increases men’s earnings more than women’s, with strikingly similar patterns in Germany and Sweden. Using a sample of mass layoff events, we then find that couples in both countries are more likely to relocate in response to the man being laid off compared to the woman. We investigate whether these gendered patterns reflect men’s higher potential earnings or a gender norm that prioritizes men’s career advancement. We provide suggestive evidence of a gender norm using variation in norms within Germany. We then develop and estimate a model of household decision-making in which households can place more weight on the income earned by the man compared to the woman. In both countries, the estimated model can accurately reproduce the reduced-form results, including those not used to estimate the model. The results point to a role for gender norms in explaining the gender gap in the returns to joint moves.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32970,32970,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Evaluating Policy Counterfactuals: A VAR-Plus Approach,"Tomás E. Caravello, Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf","In a rich family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, the counterfactual evolution of the macro-economy under alternative policy rules is pinned down by just two objects: first, reduced-form projections with respect to a large information set; and second, the dynamic causal effects of policy shocks. In particular, no assumptions about the structural shocks affecting the economy are needed. We propose to recover these two sufficient statistics using a ``VAR-Plus'' approach, and apply it to evaluate several monetary policy counterfactuals.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32988,32988,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Perry Preschool at 50: What Lessons Should Be Drawn and Which Criticisms Ignored?,"Alison W. Baulos, Jorge Luis García & James J. Heckman","The Perry Preschool Project, the longest-running experimental study of an early childhood education program, demonstrates how such interventions can yield long-term personal, societal, and intergenerational benefits for disadvantaged populations. The evidence is clear: investments in high-quality early childhood education and parental engagement can deliver returns even 50 years later. The program’s findings remain scientifically robust, particularly when analyzed through rigorous small-sample inference methods. The program’s findings also contradict common criticisms of preschool, as, when measured correctly, treatment effects on IQ do not fadeout. This paper draws insights from both the original founders and recent empirical studies, emphasizing the critical role of parental involvement in early education. The authors advocate for a scientific agenda focused on understanding the mechanisms behind treatment effects, rather than replicating specific programs. The analysis also underscores the broader implications of early childhood interventions for social mobility and human capital formation. Analysts of early childhood education should recognize that although credentials and formal curricula contribute to successful programs, the true measure of quality lies in adult-child interactions, which play an essential role.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32972,32972,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +"""Despair"" and Death in the United States",Christopher J. Ruhm,"Increases in “deaths of despair” have been hypothesized to provide an important source of the adverse mortality experiences of some groups at the beginning of the 21st century. This study examines this possibility and uncovers the following primary findings. First, mental health deteriorated between 1993 and 2019 for all population subgroups examined. Second, these declines raised death rates and contributed to the adverse mortality trends experienced by prime-age non-Hispanic Whites and, to a lesser extent, Blacks from 1999-2019. However, worsening mental health is not the predominant explanation for them. Third, to extent these relationships support the general idea of “deaths of despair”, the specific causes comprising it should be both broader and different than previously recognized: still including drug mortality and possibly alcohol deaths but replacing suicides with fatalities from heart disease, lower respiratory causes, homicides, and conceivably cancer. Fourth, heterogeneity in the consequences of a given increase of poor mental health are generally more important than the sizes of the changes in poor mental health in explaining Black-White differences in the overall effects of mental health on mortality.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32978,32978,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Investing in Vaccines to Mitigate Harm from COVID-19 and Future Pandemics,"Rachel Glennerster, Catherine Che, Sarrin M. Chethik, Claire T. McMahon & Christopher M. Snyder","This paper evaluates the social value of investing in vaccine research, development, and manufacturing capacity for pandemic preparedness and response. Rapid vaccination during pandemics can significantly reduce mortality, economic losses, and societal disruptions. However, vaccine manufacturers often lack sufficient incentives for speed and capacity expansion. Strategic policies by governments and international organizations could enhance these incentives and improve equitable vaccine distribution.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32984,32984,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +The Selective Disclosure of Evidence: An Experiment,"Agata Farina, Guillaume Fréchette, Alessandro Ispano, Alessandro Lizzeri & Jacopo Perego","We conduct an experimental analysis of selective disclosure in communication. In our model, an informed sender aims to influence a receiver by disclosing verifiable evidence that is selected from a larger pool of available evidence. Our experimental design leverages the rich comparative statics predictions of this model, enabling a systematic test of the relative importance of evidence selection versus evidence concealment in communication. Our findings confirm the key qualitative predictions of the theory, suggesting that selection, rather than concealment, is often the dominant distortion in communication. We also identify deviations from the theory: A minority of senders overcommunicate relative to predictions, while some receivers partially neglect the selective nature of the evidence they observe.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32975,32975,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Are We Adapting to Climate Change?,"Marshall Burke, Mustafa Zahid, Mariana C. M. Martins, Christopher W. Callahan, Richard Lee, Tumenkhusel Avirmed, Sam Heft-Neal, Mathew Kiang, Solomon M. Hsiang & David Lobell et al. (View all)","We study whether the sensitivity of economic, health, and livelihood outcomes to climate extremes has declined over the last half century, consistent with adaptation. Understanding whether such adaptation is already occurring is central to anticipating future climate damages, to calibrating the level of ambition needed for emissions mitigation efforts, and to understanding additional investments in adaptation that could be required to avoid additional damages. Using comprehensive panel data across diverse geographies and outcomes, including data on mortality, agricultural productivity, crime, conflict, economic output, and damages from flooding and tropical cyclones, we find limited systematic evidence of adaptation to date. Across 21 outcomes we study, six show a statistically significant declining sensitivity to a changing climate, five show an increasing sensitivity, and the remainder show no statistically significant change. Our results do not imply that specific documented adaptation efforts are ineffective or certain locations have not adapted, but instead that the net effects of existing actions have largely not been successful in meaningfully reducing climate impacts in aggregate. To avoid ongoing and future damages from warming, our results suggest a need to identify promising adaptation strategies and understand how they can be scaled.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32985,32985,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Economic Policy Challenges for the Age of AI,Anton Korinek,"This paper examines the profound challenges that transformative advances in AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will pose for economists and economic policymakers. I examine how the Age of AI will revolutionize the basic structure of our economies by diminishing the role of labor, leading to unprecedented productivity gains but raising concerns about job disruption, income distribution, and the value of education and human capital. I explore what roles may remain for labor post-AGI, and which production factors will grow in importance. The paper then identifies eight key challenges for economic policy in the Age of AI: (1) inequality and income distribution, (2) education and skill development, (3) social and political stability, (4) macroeconomic policy, (5) antitrust and market regulation, (6) intellectual property, (7) environmental implications, and (8) global AI governance. It concludes by emphasizing how economists can contribute to a better understanding of these challenges.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32980,32980,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +"Health Inequality and Economic Disparities by Race, Ethnicity, and Gender","Nicolò Russo, Rory McGee, Mariacristina De Nardi, Margherita Borella & Ross Abram","We measure health inequality during middle and old age by race, ethnicity, and gender and evaluate the extent to which it can explain inequalities in other key economic outcomes using the Health and Retirement Study data set. Our main measure of health is frailty, which is the fraction of one's possible health deficits and is related to biological age. We find staggering health inequality: At age 55, Black men and women have the frailty, or biological age, of White men and women 13 and 20 years older, respectively, while Hispanic men and women exhibit frailty akin to White men and women 5 and 6 years older. The health deficits composing frailty reveal that most health deficits are more likely for Black and Hispanic people than for White people, with the notable exception of those requiring a diagnosis. Imputing medical diagnoses to Black and Hispanic people uncovers even larger health gaps, especially for Black men. Health inequality also emerges as a powerful determinant of economic inequality. If Black individuals at age 55 had the health of their White peers, the life expectancy gap between these two groups would halve, and the gap in disability duration would decrease by 40-70%. Other outcomes are similarly affected by health at age 55, indicating that targeted health interventions for minority groups before middle age could substantially reduce economic disparities in the quantity and quality of life.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32971,32971,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Privacy Protection and Accuracy: What Do We Know? Do We Know Things?? Let's Find Out!,Evan S. Totty & Thor Watson,"Statistical agencies have a dual mandate to provide accurate data and protect the privacy and confidentiality of data subjects. These mandates are fundamentally at odds and therefore must be balanced: more accurate data reduces privacy, while privacy protections introduce error that reduces accuracy. Balancing accuracy and privacy requires, among other things, that we can quantify accuracy and privacy. Quantifying privacy has become easier thanks to differential privacy. Quantifying accuracy may sound easy by comparison, but there are many challenges to doing this effectively. In this paper, we first discuss some challenges associated with quantifying data accuracy. We then focus on an often-ignored challenge, which is the existence of survey error in the data being protected. We provide an overview of how privacy protection error relates to total survey error. We also summarize recent work that uses validation data to quantify the impact of privacy protection error relative to and conditional on other sources of survey error. Finally, we discuss opportunities and challenges for future work on data privacy and survey error.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32989,32989,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +On the Identifying Power of Generalized Monotonicity for Average Treatment Effects,"Yuehao Bai, Shunzhuang Huang, Sarah Moon, Azeem Shaikh & Edward J. Vytlacil","In the context of a binary outcome, treatment, and instrument, Balke and Pearl (1993, 1997) establish that the monotonicity condition of Imbens and Angrist (1994) has no identifying power beyond instrument exogeneity for average potential outcomes and average treatment effects in the sense that adding it to instrument exogeneity does not decrease the identified sets for those parameters whenever those restrictions are consistent with the distribution of the observable data. This paper shows that this phenomenon holds in a broader setting with a multi-valued outcome, treatment, and instrument, under an extension of the monotonicity condition that we refer to as generalized monotonicity. We further show that this phenomenon holds for any restriction on treatment response that is stronger than generalized monotonicity provided that these stronger restrictions do not restrict potential outcomes. Importantly, many models of potential treatments previously considered in the literature imply generalized monotonicity, including the types of monotonicity restrictions considered by Kline and Walters (2016), Kirkeboen et al. (2016), and Heckman and Pinto (2018), and the restriction that treatment selection is determined by particular classes of additive random utility models. We show through a series of examples that restrictions on potential treatments can provide identifying power beyond instrument exogeneity for average potential outcomes and average treatment effects when the restrictions imply that the generalized monotonicity condition is violated. In this way, our results shed light on the types of restrictions required for help in identifying average potential outcomes and average treatment effects.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32983,32983,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Equity and Efficiency in Technology Adoption: Evidence from Digital Health,"Itzik Fadlon, Parag Agnihotri, Christopher Longhurst & Ming Tai-Seale","Digital technologies are bringing vast improvements to modern society but also carry the risk of perpetuating disparities if adopted at lower rates by underserved communities. We investigate the efficiency and equity aspects of technological advancement in digital health by studying an intervention of “remote patient monitoring” that enabled patients to transmit real-time clinical data for timely treatment. The program was deployed at the Academic Medical Center UC San Diego Health among a diverse population of patients and targeted hypertension management to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. From an efficiency standpoint, we find significant and persistent reductions in cardiovascular risk, which are notable across all subgroups of gender, age, race/ethnicity, and geographic affluence. Evidence suggests both reduced frictions in the provision of care and improved health behaviors as mechanisms. The program also led to significant reductions in healthcare utilization costs from improved hypertension control. From an equity standpoint, however, we find that the longer-run health gains from the program fell short among underserved patient subpopulations, inducing inequities in the reductions in cardiovascular risk. The new technology was systematically adopted at lower rates by Black/Hispanic patients and by patients from disadvantaged geographic communities, who were less likely to either take up or adhere to the program. Overall, our analysis highlights the simultaneous promise and hazards of digital health technologies. We further provide evidence that primary care physicians and the nature of their relationship with patients can have a promising role in promoting greater and more equitable adoption of digital health.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32992,32992,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +A Secure Query System to Improve Access to Individual Income Tax Data,"Amy O'Hara, Stephanie Straus, Ron Borzekowski, Paul Arnsberger & Barry Johnson","In recent years, important and headline-grabbing findings have emerged from research using individual income tax data for statistical purposes. Demand for these microdata, accessible under the tax administration authority of the Internal Revenue Code and through the IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) Division’s Joint Statistical Research Program, continues to grow. This paper describes a new approach to address demand from government agencies and nonprofit institutions for such statistics. +The project explores the feasibility of a privacy preserving secure query system (SQS) linking end-users of the data, a data intermediary, and SOI. In the early stages of development, end-users may be state or local government agencies or nonprofit institutions (e.g., non-degree programs at community colleges); the intermediary is Georgetown University; and all processing will be done within and by SOI staff. The objective is for an SQS client, such as a state department of social services, to prepare and submit a dataset with personal identifiers for SOI to match to individual income tax records, in order to produce tables of predefined output statistics. This efficient and automated process should allow greater production of evidence at much lower cost and burden for clients and SOI.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32969,32969,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents,"Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub","In the past decade, a new paradigm for fiscal and monetary policy analysis has emerged, combining the canonical macro model of income and wealth inequality with the New Keynesian model. These Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (“HANK”) models feature new transmission channels and allow for the joint study of aggregate and distributional effects. We review key developments in this literature through the lens of a unified “canonical HANK model”. Monetary and balanced-budget fiscal policy have similar aggregate effects as in the standard new Keynesian model, while deficit-financed fiscal policy is much more expansionary. We discuss the split between direct and indirect effects of policy, and also the implications of cyclical income risk, maturity structure, nominal assets, behavioral frictions, and many other extensions to the model. Throughout, we highlight the benefits of using sequence-space methods to solve and analyze this class of models.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32991,32991,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 +Entry Costs Rise with Growth,Peter J. Klenow & Huiyu Li,"Over time and across states in the U.S., the number of firms is more closely tied to overall employment than to output per worker. In many models of firm dynamics, trade, and growth with a free entry condition, these facts imply that the costs of creating a new firm increase sharply with productivity growth. This increase in entry costs can stem from the rising cost of labor used in entry and weak or negative knowledge spillovers from prior entry. How entry costs vary with growth matters for welfare. For example, our findings suggest that productivity-enhancing policies will not induce entry of firms, thereby limiting the total impact of such policies on welfare.",https://www.nber.org/papers/w32974,32974,September 2024,NBER,09/23/2024 diff --git a/data/wp_ids.txt b/data/wp_ids.txt index be25163..f1ed90a 100644 --- a/data/wp_ids.txt +++ b/data/wp_ids.txt @@ -1 +1 @@ -{0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 126, 127, 128, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 137, 138, 139, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145, 146, 147, 148, 149, 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 162, 163, 164, 165, 166, 167, 168, 169, 170, 171, 172, 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 180, 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186, 187, 188, 189, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 218, 219, 220, 221, 222, 223, 224, 225, 226, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, 237, 238, 239, 240, 241, 242, 243, 244, 245, 246, 247, 248, 249, 250, 251, 252, 253, 254, 255, 256, 257, 258, 259, 260, 261, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 269, 270, 271, 272, 273, 274, 275, 276, 277, 278, 279, 280, 281, 282, 283, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 290, 291, 292, 293, 294, 295, 296, 297, 298, 299, 300, 301, 302, 303, 304, 305, 306, 307, 308, 309, 310, 311, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 317, 318, 319, 320, 321, 322, 323, 324, 325, 326, 327, 328, 329, 330, 331, 332, 333, 334, 335, 336, 337, 338, 339, 340, 341, 342, 343, 344, 345, 346, 347, 348, 349, 350, 351, 352, 353, 354, 355, 356, 357, 358, 359, 360, 361, 362, 363, 364, 365, 366, 367, 368, 369, 370, 'NBER31843', 'NBER31678', 'ECB2838', 'FED-ATLANTA2023-6', 'NBER31534', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1114', 'NBER32570', 'FED-KANSASCITY2024-03', 'IMFWPIEA2024043', 'NBER31646', 'BFI2023-149', 'ECB2873', 'NBER32632', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723297', 'NBER31625', 'NBER31857', 'FED-ATLANTA2022-15', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1152', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-017C', 'BFI2024-44', 'NBER31656', 'NBER32864', 'NBER32117', 'BFI2024-54', 'NBER32665', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA24-09', 'NBER31956', 'NBER31810', 'NBER32679', 'NBER31965', 'NBER32201', 'BEAWP2022-13', 'NBER32342', 'BIS1112', 'NBER31653', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1110', 'BIS1210', 'NBER32391', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723344', 'NBER32128', 'BOE1037', 'NBER31563', 'NBER32592', 'IMFWPIEA2024003', 'NBER32810', 'ECB2906', 'NBER32456', 'NBER32275', 'NBER31939', 'NBER32345', 'NBER32355', 'NBER31703', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-012A', 'BIS1105', 'NBER32368', 'IMFWPIEA2024032', 'NBER31806', 'BIS1209', 'NBER31548', 'NBER32822', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723401', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA23-22', 'NBER31990', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723292', 'NBER32932', 'IMF2024-157', 'ECB2867', 'FED-BOSTON23-12', 'BFI2024-56', 'FED-CLEVELAND23-22', 'FED-DALLAS2404', 'BIS1101', 'FED-CLEVELAND23-24', 'IMF2024-120', 'BFI2023-144-1', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2022-22', 'BFI2024-38', 'FED-BOARD2024-045', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2023-31', 'NBER32643', 'NBER31938', 'NBER32216', 'NBER31467', 'IMF2024-140', 'IMFWPIEA2023164', 'IMF2024-190', 'FED-ATLANTA2024-5', 'BFI2023-140', 'IMFWPIEA2023207', 'NBER31535', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2022-14', 'FED-BOARD2024-042', 'NBER31615', 'NBER32764', 'FED-DALLAS2312', 'FED-CHICAGO2024-05', 'IMFWPIEA2024031', 'NBER31681', 'FED-BOSTON23-16', 'NBER31932', 'FED-NEWYORK1073', 'NBER32487', 'NBER31958', 'NBER32020', 'IMF2024-091', 'FED-BOARD2023-029', 'NBER32038', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723526', 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'FED-BOARD2023-004', 'FED-NEWYORK1054', 'NBER32283', 'NBER32015', 'NBER32505', 'ECB2943', 'IMFWPIEA2023221', 'NBER32553', 'IMFWPIEA2024057', 'IMF2024-135', 'NBER31982', 'IMFWPIEA2024046', 'NBER32826', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-028C', 'FED-MINNEAPOLIS798', 'IMFWPIEA2024015', 'NBER32134', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-016A', 'NBER32110', 'FED-BOARD2023-033', 'NBER32868', 'NBER32841', 'FED-DALLASGI429', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723377', 'ECB2927', 'BFI2024-72', 'BFI2024-48', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-030A', 'NBER32936', 'NBER31532', 'NBER32140', 'NBER31835', 'IMFWPIEA2023168', 'NBER31967', 'IMF2024-158', 'NBER32010', 'FED-NEWYORK1046', 'IMFWPIEA2024033', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-009B', 'BOEStaff Working Paper 1056', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723433', 'NBER32639', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723605', 'NBER32123', 'IMFWPIEA2024066', 'IMFWPIEA2024010', 'FED-BOARD2024-028', 'NBER32598', 'FED-BOARD2024-004', 'IMFWPIEA2024021', 'BFI2024-42', 'BOE1026', 'NBER32343', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-09', 'IMFWPIEA2023235', 'FED-CHICAGO2023-23', 'FED-BOARD2024-023', 'NBER32559', 'NBER31566', 'NBER32943', 'NBER32228', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA22-22', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1148', 'NBER32564', 'NBER32796', 'IMF2024-173', 'NBER32014', 'NBER32141', 'NBER31593', 'ECB2939', 'FED-MINNEAPOLIS802', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-017B', 'NBER31862', 'NBER32028', 'NBER32410', 'BOE1051', 'BFI2022-91', 'NBER31449', 'FED-BOARD2024-018', 'BFI2024-16', 'ECB2883', 'NBER31748', 'NBER32815', 'IMFWPIEA2024001', 'NBER31864', 'NBER31837', 'IMFWPIEA2023254', 'FED-BOARD2024-061', 'NBER32952', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-007A', 'NBER32853', 'NBER31855', 'BFI2023-133-1', 'NBER32375', 'NBER32596', 'FED-DALLASGI422', 'IMFWPIEA2023217', 'IMFWPIEA2024009', 'IMF2024-152', 'NBER32812', 'FED-NEWYORK1114', 'BFI2023-68-1', 'NBER32053', 'IMF2024-139', 'IMF2024-084', 'NBER32595', 'IMFWPIEA2024045', 'IMF2024-161', 'ECB2881', 'NBER32035', 'FED-BOARD2023-060', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723464', 'BFI2023-107', 'NBER32578', 'BFI2024-68', 'NBER32920', 'FED-BOARD2023-012', 'BFI2023-146-1', 'FED-NEWYORK1112', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-30', 'BFI2024-43', 'IMF2024-181', 'NBER32439', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-21', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-07', 'BFI2023-150', 'IMFWPIEA2024071', 'NBER31644', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723367', 'FED-RICHMOND24-03R', 'BIS1125', 'NBER32519', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2022-17', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1141', 'NBER31923', 'FED-NEWYORK1113', 'BIS1091', 'NBER31962', 'BIS1211', 'NBER31908', 'FED-NEWYORK1107', 'NBER31696', 'NBER31769', 'NBER31830', 'ECB2860', 'BEAWP2023-11', 'NBER32434', 'NBER31618', 'FED-ATLANTA2023-7', 'BIS1198', 'FED-RICHMOND23-03', 'BFI2023-144', 'NBER32938', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-023A', 'NBER32408', 'BOE1089', 'NBER31730', 'BFI2024-52', 'NBER32178', 'IMFWPIEA2023169', 'IMF2024-117', 'FED-BOARD2023-008', 'ECB2890', 'NBER32780', 'BEAWP2024-6', 'IMF2024-156', 'NBER31702', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723426', 'NBER31936', 'NBER32691', 'IMFWPIEA2024026', 'BOE1078', 'NBER32628', 'NBER31522', 'FED-ATLANTA2023-8', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1129', 'FED-BOARD2024-022', 'NBER31799', 'FED-NEWYORK1094', 'NBER31887', 'IMFWPIEA2023199', 'ECB2879', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1169', 'NBER31691', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723254', 'IMFWPIEA2024024', 'BIS1157', 'IMFWPIEA2023156', 'NBER32147', 'NBER31789', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723482', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723540', 'NBER31608', 'ECB2969', 'NBER31999', 'NBER31802', 'IMFBalance of payments\nForeign direct investment', 'IMFWPIEA2023185', 'NBER31575', 'BIS1120', 'FED-BOARD2024-049', 'IMFWPIEA2024044', 'NBER32119', 'NBER32457', 'NBER32668', 'BOE1055', 'IMFWPIEA2023257', 'NBER31740', 'BOE1054', 'NBER31983', 'NBER32458', 'NBER32359', 'NBER31879', 'NBER32142', 'IMF2024-145', 'NBER31784', 'NBER32438', 'BOE1043', 'NBER32288', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA23-26', 'NBER31475', 'BIS1172', 'IMFThis paper shows how cryptocurrency markets can fuel cross-border capital flight by serving as marketplaces that match counterparts with and without (illicit) access to FX. In countries where international transactions are restricted, crypto exchanges effectively allow domestic agents to pay a premium to buy foreign currency. The counterparts to these transactions are agents with access to FX, who sell crypto holdings purchased abroad. A stylized model illustrates that restricted foreign currency amid economic imbalances incentivizes these transactions via persistent crypto premia in local relative to global markets. We analyze relative crypto pricing data in several country case studies, providing empirical support that crypto markets serve as marketplaces for capital flight that already took place, rather than a novel channel for capital flight. We make available a novel dataset on crypto market premia, which we propose as indicators of excess demand for foreign currency and capital control intensity. The dataset will be posted along with this paper and updated periodically.', 'IMFWPIEA2024085', 'NBER32830', 'FED-BOARD2024-070', 'NBER32919', 'NBER32599', 'NBER32657', 'FED-BOARD2023-066', 'NBER31559', 'NBER31546', 'IMF2024-086', 'FED-BOARD2023-026', 'NBER31477', 'NBER32687', 'ECB2842', 'FED-BOARD2023-040', 'IMF2024-124', 'FED-NEWYORK1104', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1132', 'BIS1192', 'ECB2960', 'ECB2850', 'NBER31917', 'FED-CLEVELAND23-07R', 'NBER31523', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723535', 'NBER32916', 'FED-CHICAGO2024-18', 'FED-MINNEAPOLIS799', 'ECB2976', 'BFI2023-109', 'BFI2023-137', 'IMF2024-169', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723447', 'NBER32651', 'NBER31713', 'NBER32939', 'NBER31988', 'FED-CLEVELAND23-12', 'IMFWPIEA2024014', 'IMFWPIEA2023264', 'IMFWPIEA2023155', 'IMF2024-102', 'NBER31494', 'FED-BOARD2024-012', 'IMF2024-116', 'NBER31762', 'IMF2024-146', 'NBER32374', 'NBER31718', 'FED-NEWYORK1096', 'NBER31680', 'BFI2023-106', 'FED-KANSASCITY2023-10', 'FED-BOSTON23-4', 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'FED-CHICAGO2023-37', 'NBER32888', 'NBER31955', 'NBER31663', 'NBER32305', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1126', 'NBER32962', 'FED-BOARD2024-010', 'IMF2024-119', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-02', 'NBER32188', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723591', 'NBER31854', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1117', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-004C', 'NBER31481', 'IMFWPIEA2023213', 'NBER32131', 'FED-BOSTON24-9', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA23-13', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723412', 'NBER31994', 'NBER32869', 'NBER32539', 'NBER32789', 'NBER31655', 'NBER32133', 'NBER32615', 'NBER32732', 'FED-CHICAGO2023-34', 'NBER31577', 'IMF2024-193', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2022-11', 'BOE1041', 'NBER32515', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1158', 'NBER31510', 'IMFWPIEA2024055', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1147', 'BOE1069', 'BIS1212', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723456', 'IMFWPIEA2023231', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-018A', 'NBER32417', 'ECB2924', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2023-21', 'FED-MINNEAPOLIS805', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-17', 'NBER31870', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723498', 'IMFWPIEA2023265', 'BOE1050', 'NBER32576', 'NBER32161', 'NBER32707', 'BOE1066', 'FED-DALLAS2403', 'FED-NEWYORK1077', 'BIS1200', 'NBER32477', 'NBER31775', 'NBER32733', 'FED-NEWYORK1061', 'NBER31712', 'FED-BOARD2023-022', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA24-05', 'FED-ATLANTA2024-3', 'NBER31579', 'NBER32068', 'NBER31451', 'NBER32406', 'NBER32340', 'NBER32492', 'NBER31964', 'NBER31902', 'NBER31683', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-013A', 'NBER32648', 'NBER32525', 'NBER32398', 'FED-MINNEAPOLIS801', 'NBER32644', 'ECB2834', 'BFI2024-67', 'NBER31684', 'NBER31463', 'FED-KANSASCITY2023-12', 'NBER31975', 'IMFWPIEA2023226', 'NBER32005', 'BIS1097', 'NBER32150', 'NBER32164', 'BIS1188', 'IMFWPIEA2024016', 'NBER31898', 'FED-BOARD2024-021', 'NBER32881', 'IMFWPIEA2024070', 'IMFWPIEA2024037', 'FED-CLEVELAND23-18', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-007D', 'NBER32620', 'NBER32101', 'NBER32330', 'FED-ATLANTA2024-1', 'IMFWPIEA2023267', 'NBER31486', 'NBER31949', 'FED-NEWYORK1066', 'NBER32803', 'NBER31759', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA24-08', 'BFI2024-1', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723471', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2023-07', 'NBER31891', 'FED-BOARD2024-036', 'NBER31866', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA24-06', 'FED-CLEVELAND22-38R', 'NBER32767', 'NBER32503', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA23-21', 'NBER31859', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-27', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA22-04', 'ECB2837', 'ECB2918', 'BFI2024-10', 'BFI2024-12', 'IMFWPIEA2023178', 'ECB2928', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1124', 'BEAWP2023-7', 'NBER32523', 'NBER31675', 'NBER32493', 'NBER32247', 'IMF2024-110', 'NBER32817', 'BFI2023-155', 'ECB2859', 'BIS1207', 'NBER32380', 'NBER32362', 'NBER32478', 'NBER31706', 'IMF2024-109', 'NBER31471', 'NBER31782', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-016B', 'NBER31773', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-005A', 'IMFWPIEA2024018', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-22', 'IMFWPIEA2023259', 'NBER32104', 'FED-BOARD2023-071', 'BFI2024-34', 'FED-BOARD2024-051', 'NBER32115', 'NBER32219', 'FED-CLEVELAND23-27', 'NBER32218', 'NBER32297', 'NBER32326', 'NBER32129', 'NBER32613', 'NBER32469', 'NBER32381', 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In countries where international transactions are restricted, crypto exchanges effectively allow domestic agents to pay a premium to buy foreign currency. The counterparts to these transactions are agents with access to FX, who sell crypto holdings purchased abroad. A stylized model illustrates that restricted foreign currency amid economic imbalances incentivizes these transactions via persistent crypto premia in local relative to global markets. We analyze relative crypto pricing data in several country case studies, providing empirical support that crypto markets serve as marketplaces for capital flight that already took place, rather than a novel channel for capital flight. We make available a novel dataset on crypto market premia, which we propose as indicators of excess demand for foreign currency and capital control intensity. The dataset will be posted along with this paper and updated periodically.', 'NBER31478', 'NBER31676', 'NBER32332', 'NBER32272', 'IMF2024-122', 'FED-BOARD2024-042', 'BOE1041', 'IMF2024-149', 'NBER32632', 'NBER31590', 'FED-NEWYORK1073', 'NBER31552', 'IMF2024-111', 'NBER31599', 'NBER32919', 'NBER32885', 'NBER32041', 'BIS1112', 'BFI2023-146-1', 'ECB2879', 'NBER32821', 'NBER32268', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-031C', 'NBER32983', 'NBER32944', 'NBER31657', 'FED-CLEVELAND22-23R', 'FED-BOARD2023-009', 'NBER32946', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2023-16', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723493', 'NBER31948', 'NBER32564', 'BFI2024-14', 'FED-NEWYORK1089', 'BFI2023-109', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-11', 'NBER32104', 'NBER32688', 'BFI2023-138', 'NBER32347', 'IMF2024-138', 'IMF2024-099', 'FED-BOARD2024-033', 'BOE1063', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723435', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1123', 'FED-BOARD2024-071', 'FED-BOARD2023-030', 'NBER32500', 'ECB2892', 'BFI2024-3', 'IMFWPIEA2024018', 'IMFWPIEA2023264', 'NBER32132', 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'NBER32619', 'FED-CHICAGO2023-18', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-004A', 'NBER32762', 'NBER32489', 'NBER32968', 'BIS1125', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1134', 'NBER32658', 'ECB2837', 'FED-NEWYORK1081', 'NBER32926', 'FED-CHICAGO2024-10', 'NBER32466', 'FED-BOARD2024-060', 'NBER32316', 'NBER31754', 'NBER32602', 'NBER32695', 'FED-ATLANTA2023-7', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-003B', 'NBER32148', 'ECB2867', 'IMF2024-193', 'FED-BOARD2024-003', 'FED-MINNEAPOLIS800', 'FED-NEWYORK1091', 'BFI2024-06', 'FED-DALLAS2403', 'NBER32529', 'FED-DALLASGI428', 'NBER32615', 'NBER32884', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-09', 'NBER32097', 'BOE1084', 'FED-RICHMOND23-01', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723392', 'NBER32019', 'NBER31638', 'NBER31456', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2023-38', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723443', 'ECB2902', 'NBER31532', 'BFI2024-23', 'NBER32117', 'BIS1093', 'FED-BOSTON24-6', 'BOE1052', 'NBER31975', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2024-04', 'IMFWPIEA2023240', 'NBER32689', 'NBER32353', 'FED-BOARD2024-020', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2022-11', 'NBER32715', 'NBER32456', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723334', 'IMFWPIEA2023224', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA21-34', 'ECB2935', 'IMFWPIEA2024031', 'NBER31711', 'FED-NEWYORK1092', 'NBER32426', 'IMFWPIEA2023256', 'NBER31947', 'ECB2965', 'NBER32713', 'FED-BOARD2024-034', 'NBER31649', 'NBER32394', 'NBER31998', 'FED-CLEVELAND24-13', 'NBER32276', 'IMFWPIEA2024081', 'NBER32213', 'BFI2023-140', 'NBER31830', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-007B', 'NBER32247', 'NBER32694', 'NBER32771', 'NBER32975', 'FED-DALLAS2311', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA23-15', 'NBER32943', 'BFI2024-29', 'NBER32339', 'NBER32458', 'NBER32447', 'NBER32410', 'IMFWPIEA2024042', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2023-27', 'BFI2023-111-1', 'NBER31775', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-025C', 'FED-BOARD2024-070', 'NBER31838', 'NBER32914', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1169', 'FED-NEWYORK1117', 'BFI2024-33', 'NBER32514', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-024A', 'IMFWPIEA2023197', 'NBER31860', 'NBER31607', 'NBER32682', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA24-04', 'NBER32311', 'NBER32418', 'FED-NEWYORK1077', 'FED-BOARD2024-037', 'BFI2024-26', 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'NBER32651', 'FED-CHICAGO2023-34', 'NBER32016', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723256', 'NBER32542', 'ECB2885', 'FED-BOARD2024-007', 'ECB2855', 'NBER31845', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-029A', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1151', 'BOE1055', 'FED-CHICAGO2023-22', 'BFI2024-46', 'NBER31628', 'NBER31704', 'IMFWPIEA2024035', 'BFI2024-60', 'FED-ATLANTA2024-4', 'NBER31835', 'BFI2024-35', 'NBER31884', 'BOE1066\xa0', 'NBER31761', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723274', 'NBER31757', 'FED-BOARD2024-046', 'IMFWPIEA2023246', 'NBER31971', 'IMFWPIEA2023253', 'NBER32738', 'NBER31892', 'FED-CLEVELAND21-23R2', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1130', 'NBER32384', 'FED-DALLAS2301', 'NBER32135', 'NBER32275', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA23-19', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723412', 'NBER32962', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1147', 'FED-CHICAGO2024-04', 'NBER31951', 'FED-BOARD2024-009', 'NBER31798', 'IMF2024-192', 'BIS1204', 'ECB2929', 'NBER31791', 'IMFWPIEA2023217', 'NBER32939', 'NBER31753', 'FED-CLEVELAND23-13', 'NBER32704', 'FED-BOARD2023-27', 'NBER32945', 'FED-NEWYORK1082', 'FED-BOARD2024-014', 'NBER32123', 'IMFWPIEA2024016', 'NBER31819', 'FED-ATLANTA2022-18', 'IMFWPIEA2024079', 'NBER31909', 'BFI2024-54', 'NBER31569', 'BOE1042', 'FED-CLEVELAND23-12', 'NBER31691', 'NBER32539', 'FED-BOARD2024-024', 'FED-BOSTON24-4', 'NBER31672', 'BIS1099', 'NBER31574', 'NBER31870', 'BFI2024-31', 'NBER31939', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723510', 'FED-BOARD2023-060', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2023-22', 'NBER32449', 'FED-BOSTON23-15', 'IMFWPIEA2024056', 'NBER32026', 'FED-NEWYORK1096', 'NBER31618', 'NBER32708', 'NBER31882', 'NBER32498', 'BFI2024-45', 'BOE1085', 'ECB2886', 'FED-ATLANTA2023-10', 'NBER31983', 'FED-PHILADELPHIA23-23', 'NBER32396', 'FED-ATLANTA2022-16', 'NBER32294', 'NBER32720', 'IMFWPIEA2023179', 'NBER31500', 'BFI2023-150', 'FED-DALLAS2219', 'NBER32524', 'NBER32645', 'FED-DALLAS2303', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723372', 'NBER32583', 'NBER32208', 'NBER31702', 'NBER32548', 'BFI2023-142', 'IMF2024-115', 'IMFWPIEA2023154', 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'NBER31547', 'NBER32829', 'NBER32100', 'NBER32549', 'IMFWPIEA2023214', 'BFI2024-74', 'NBER31726', 'NBER32699', 'FED-STLOUIS2024-021A', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1149', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2023-28', 'ECB2862', 'ECB2940', 'ECB2884', 'NBER32115', 'NBER32310', 'BIShttps://www.bis.org/publ/work1120', 'ECB2897', 'FED-STLOUIS2023-022B', 'NBER31560', 'ECB2938', 'FED-SANFRANCISCO2023-23', 'NBER31898', 'NBER32392', 'NBER32587', 'NBER32647', 'FED-BOARD-NOTES1017016238071723570', 'FED-BOARD2023-058', 'NBER32981', 'FED-CHICAGO2023-35', 'IMFWPIEA2023183', 'FED-CLEVELAND24-03', 'IMF2024-078', 'NBER32597', 'NBER32835', 'NBER32644', 'NBER32938', 'NBER32744', 'IMFConsumer price indexes\nExcises\nFuel prices\nFuel tax\nInflation\nOil prices\nPrices\nTaxes', 'NBER31990', 'NBER32639', 'FED-NEWYORK1106', 'NBER32726', 'NBER31481', 'FED-ATLANTA2023-17', 'BOE1043', 'NBER31847', 'BIS1208', 'BIS1154', 'FED-BOARD2024-002', 'NBER32747', 'NBER32979', 'IMF2024-095', 'IMFWPIEA2023216', 'IMFWPIEA2023209', 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