11_nibrs_general.Rmd

# (PART) National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) {-}

# NIBRS Overview

```{r, echo=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
  echo    = FALSE,
  warning = FALSE,
  error   = FALSE,
  message = FALSE
)
```

```{r,  results='hide'}
administrative <- readRDS("data/nibrs_administrative_segment_2023.rds")
ucr <- readRDS("data/offenses_known_yearly_1960_2023.rds")
batch_header <- readRDS("data/nibrs_summary_stats/batch_header_all_years.rds")
gc()
batch_header_all_years <- readRDS("E:/Dropbox/ucrbook/data/nibrs_summary_stats/batch_header_all_years.rds")


nibrs_administrative_summary_stats <- readRDS("E:/Dropbox/ucrbook/data/nibrs_summary_stats/nibrs_administrative_summary_stats.rds")
nibrs_arrestee_summary_stats <- readRDS("E:/Dropbox/ucrbook/data/nibrs_summary_stats/nibrs_arrestee_summary_stats.rds")
nibrs_offender_summary_stats <- readRDS("E:/Dropbox/ucrbook/data/nibrs_summary_stats/nibrs_offender_summary_stats.rds")
nibrs_offense_summary_stats <- readRDS("E:/Dropbox/ucrbook/data/nibrs_summary_stats/nibrs_offense_summary_stats.rds")
nibrs_property_summary_stats <- readRDS("E:/Dropbox/ucrbook/data/nibrs_summary_stats/nibrs_property_summary_stats.rds")
nibrs_victim_summary_stats <- readRDS("E:/Dropbox/ucrbook/data/nibrs_summary_stats/nibrs_victim_summary_stats.rds")
property_first_year <- readRDS("E:/Dropbox/ucrbook/data/nibrs_summary_stats/property_first_year.rds")

```


Nearly a century ago the FBI started collecting data on crime that occurred in the United States as a way to better understand and respond to crime. This data, the [Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program Data](https://ucrbook.com/), is a monthly count of the number of crime incidents (in cases where more than one crime happens per incident, only the most serious crime is included) in each police agency that reports data.^[This data has been expanded since it began in 1929 to include information on arrests, hate crimes, and stolen property.] Other than for homicides (which provides information about each victim and offender), only the number of crimes that occurred is included. So we know, for example, the number of robberies in a city but nothing about who the victims or offenders were, when in that month (day or time of day) the robberies occurred, or the type of location where they happened. To address these limitations the FBI started a new dataset in 1991, the National Incident-Based Reporting System data - which is known by its abbreviation NIBRS - and is the topic of this book. Relative to the FBI's UCR data there are far fewer "weird things" in NIBRS data. Still, we will cover instances of the "weirdness" in the data, such as the why crime always goes up on the 1st of the month, or why there are more crimes at noon than at nearly all other hours of the day. We will also be discussing how much of the detailed information that should be available in the data is missing, and when that affects which questions we can answer.

NIBRS data provides detailed information on every crime reported to the police, including victim and offender demographics, whether the offender was arrested (and the type of arrest it was), what date and time of day (by hour only) it happened on, the victim-offender relationship, and the crime location (as a location type, not the exact address). It also covers a far wider range of crimes than UCR data did. With the exception of UCR data on assaults against police officers, all NIBRS data can be converted back to UCR data, making it fully backwards compatible and, therefore, comparable to UCR data. In many ways NIBRS data is a massive improvement over UCR data. This data allows for a deeper understanding of crime and it has led to an explosion of research that allows a far more detailed analysis of crime and crime-policies than the blunt UCR data. 

However, there is a major limitation to this data: most agencies do not use it. [According to the FBI](https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-releases-2019-nibrs-crime-data) only about 8,500 police agencies, covering about 45% of the US population, reported NIBRS data in 2019 (the latest year currently available). This is fewer than half of the about 18,000 police agencies in the United States. This is an even larger problem than it seems as the agencies that do report - especially in earlier years of the data - are disproportionately small and rural. So we are missing out of data from most major cities. A number of states do not have any agencies reporting, making this data relatively biased at least in terms of geography and city size. **Even so, the FBI has said that they are moving entirely to NIBRS data starting in 2021, and will no longer even collect UCR data.** While NIBRS can be converted to UCR data, meaning we can have consistent statistics over time, for agencies that do not report to NIBRS, we have no information on their crimes. In effect, unless the majority of agencies suddenly switch to NIBRS - which, given that the high level of detail relative to UCR data makes moving to NIBRS a costly and timely switch - we will be flying blind for most crime in the country. 

```{r nibrsSegmentsAgencies, fig.cap="The number of agencies reporting data for each of the NIBRS Segments, 1991-2023."}
nibrs_administrative_summary_stats  %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = year)) +
  geom_line(aes(y = number_of_agencies, color = "Administrative"), linewidth = 1.05) +
  geom_line(data = nibrs_arrestee_summary_stats, aes(x = year,
                y = number_of_agencies , color = "Arrestee"), linewidth = 1.05) +
  geom_line(data = nibrs_offender_summary_stats, aes(x = year,
                y = number_of_agencies, color = "Offender"), linewidth = 1.05) +
  geom_line(data = nibrs_offense_summary_stats, aes(x = year,
                y = number_of_agencies , color = "Offense"), linewidth = 1.05) +
  geom_line(data = nibrs_property_summary_stats, aes(x = year,
                y = number_of_agencies, color = "Property"), linewidth = 1.05) +
  geom_line(data = nibrs_victim_summary_stats, aes(x = year,
                y = number_of_agencies, color = "Victim"), linewidth = 1.05) +
  xlab("Year") +
  ylab("# of Agencies") +
  theme_crim() +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::comma, expand = c(0, 0), limits = c(0, NA)) +
  labs(color = "") +
  expand_limits(y = 0) +
  scale_color_manual(values = c("Administrative" = "#d7191c",
                                "Arrestee" = "#fdae61",
                                "Offender" = "#7b3294",
                                "Offense" = "#2c7bb6",
                                "Property" = "#2c7bb6",
                                "Victim" = "black"))
```

## Problems with NIBRS

There are three major problems with NIBRS data, with the first two related to the lack of reporting. First, we are potentially looking at a massive loss of data when UCR data ends in 2020 - it takes over a year for data to be released so even though I am writing this in Spring 2021, 2019 UCR and NIBRS data are the latest years available. 2020 data would not be released by the FBI until September or October of this year. Considering the huge crime changes during 2020 - and the latest evidence suggests that the violent crime increase is continuing (and in places even accelerating) in 2021 - losing standardized crime data for most cities (and especially the largest cities) is a very bad thing. Moving the majority of agencies over to NIBRS so quickly may also risk the integrity of the data.^["Quickly" is a bit of a misnomer as agencies were free to report to NIBRS since it began in 1991 and the FBI had announced many years ago that they would only collect NIBRS in 2021. Still, given that the majority of agencies do not report to NIBRS and 2020 had a plague, the switch is likely to introduce issues and should be delayed.] As they rush to comply with the FBI's order that they only will accept NIBRS data, there will likely be more mistakes made and erroneous data included in NIBRS data. This will likely include both knowledge problems with agencies not understanding how to properly report data and the simply issue of typos leading to wrong information being entered. Though the FBI does do quality assurance checks, no check is foolproof - and their checks in UCR data have still allowed clearly impossible data to be entered (e.g. millions of arsons reported in a month in a small town). So while I always urge caution when using any data - caution that should be accompanied by a thorough examination of your data before using it - NIBRS data from 2020 and beyond merits extra attention.

The second problem is that even if suddenly all agencies do start reporting in 2021, we would only have a single year of data available. Even for agencies that already report, we generally do not have too many years of data for them. This really limits the kind of research since we can do since it is hard to know if a finding is based on a trend or is just a weird outlier without having many years of data available. For the agencies where 2020 is the first year, we will likely to have to wait a few years to even figure out what "normal" crime is supposed to look like. This means that for the next several years at least we will be mostly using NIBRS data as UCR-like datasets, aggregated to the month- or year-level so we can compare it with UCR data from the past. Luckily, this problem will be alleviated the longer we wait as more years of data will become available. 

The final issue is that this data is massive. A single year of 2019 data - with <50% of agencies reporting, and few large agencies reporting - has about 6.5 million crime incidents recorded. Since each crime incident can have multiple victims, offenders, and crimes, there are more rows for these datasets.^[While people generally refer to NIBRS just as "NIBRS data" it is actually a collection multiple different datasets all - with a few exceptions - corresponding to a single crime incident. For example, if you care about victim information you will look in the victim file called the "Victim Segment" (each of the datasets are called "Segments" since they are part of the whole picture of the crime incident) and likely will merge it with other data, such as when are where the crime occurred which is in the "Offense Segment". In most cases you will merge together multiple datasets from the NIBRS collection to be able to answer the question that you have.] Once all agencies report - though it is doubtful that'll ever occur, though we may come close - we are looking at tens of millions of rows per year. And even now if we wanted to look at a decade of data we are going to be dealing with over 50 million rows of data. So this data requires both good hardware - a strong laptop or server is necessary - and good programming skills, which most academics sorely lack. If you can, buy more RAM for your computer as that is much easier than having to write complicated code to deal with large data. I want to stress this point. If you intend to work with NIBRS data for any significant amount of time you should buy the most RAM your computer can use (RAM is very cheap now) and install it. I would recommend at least 16GB but more is better. While computers can handle NIBRS with less RAM, it'll just lead to you spending more time writing code to deal with big data and it'll inevitably still run slower than buying extra RAM. 

### NIBRS allows for different units of analysis

A major benefit of UCR data is that you have very limited choices. If you wanted to measure crime your only choice was to use their monthly aggregated police agency-level data. This makes working with the data relatively easy, even though what work you could do was limited. NIBRS data takes an opposite approach. It provides detailed data and largely leaves it up to the users for what to do with it. This flexibility is also a curse. For every use of this data you will need to decide which unit of analysis to use - and NIBRS provides a few options.

If you are interested in measuring rape you could do so in several different ways, each of which addresses a different part of crime measurement and will lead to different answers to your questions: the number of crime incidents, the number of victims, the number of offenders, and the number of crimes. Let us use an incident where four men rape a single woman as an example. Even if we somehow solve the issue of victims not reporting their rapes, we still have a few different ways of even measuring rape.  First, we can follow the old UCR measure of incident-level and say that this is one rape since only one crime incident occurred (even though there were multiple offenders). Second, we could look at the victim-level, which again is one rape as there was only one victim. Or at the offender-level, which now has four rapes since each offender would be responsible the rape. Finally we could look at the offense-level. Even though the four men were involved in the rape incident, potentially not all of them would have actually committed the rape (and would have the offense in NIBRS data as something else such as assault or attempted rape if they did not complete the act). Some could have acted as, for example, lookouts so would be involved with the incident but not the rape. So through this measure we would have between one and four rapes, depending on the exact circumstances. Each way of measuring could lead to substantially different understandings of rape, and this is the kind of complexity that we will have to wrangle with when using NIBRS data.

Since this data includes multiple crimes in each criminal incident, unlike the UCR which includes only the most serious crime per incident, we can also measure crime in its relationship to other crimes. In the above example we are interested in rapes. The UCR method would measure it as the number of rapes in incidents where rape is the most serious charge ("most serious" is based on the FBI's hierarchy of offenses, following what they call the Hierarchy Rule) but this undercounts crimes where rape happened alongside another, more serious, offense.^[Based on the Hierarchy Rule, only murder is more serious.] So we can also look at incidents where any offense that occurred was a rape. Using this method we can examine how often rape - or any crime we are interested in - co-occurs with other offenses, which provides more information on how crime happens that looking at one crime alone. For example, we could see how often burglary-rapes occur, a crime which is far different than spousal-rape, and in UCR data we would have no way of differentiating the two. In most cases, however, only one offense occurs per criminal incident (at least as reported in the data), so the opportunity to explore co-occurrence is relatively limited.

## Which agencies report data

So if this data has the same information (other than unfounded and negative crimes) as UCR data, but is also far more detailed, why do people ever use UCR data? Besides NIBRS being more complicated to use, far fewer agencies report NIBRS data than do UCR data. Nearly all agencies report crime data for UCR, though fewer do so for some of the UCR datasets such as arrests or arsons - for more, please see my [UCR book](https://ucrbook.com/). In comparison, fewer than half of agencies report to NIBRS, and these agencies are disproportionately smaller and more rural. Starting with 2021 data, the FBI has stopped collecting UCR data, instead only collecting NIBRS data. So if - and this is a very large if - many more agencies move to NIBRS in 2021, we will start having much more detail from a very representative sample of agencies. Even so, most research - especially policy analyses - requires many years of data so it'll take many years before the full potential of NIBRS data can be realized.

We will look here at how many agencies report at least one crime each year between 1991 - the first year of data - and 2019 - the latest year of data - as well as compare NIBRS reporting to UCR reporting. Figure \@ref(fig:agenciesReporting) shows the number of agencies each year that reported at least one incident. Keep in mind that there are about 18,000 police agencies in the United States. Only a little over 600 agencies reported in 1991. This has grown pretty linearly, adding a few hundred agencies each year though that trend accelerated in recent years. In 2019, nearly 8,200 agencies reported at least some data to NIBRS. Compared to the estimated 18,000 police agencies in the United States, however, this is still fewer than half of agencies. The data shown here is potentially an overcount, however, as it includes agencies reporting any crime that year, even if they do not report every month. 

Another way to look at reporting is comparing it to reporting to UCR. Figure \@ref(fig:agenciesReportingMap) shows the number of agencies in each state that report NIBRS data in 2019. Since 2019 is the year with the most participation, this does overstate reporting for previous years. This map pretty closely follows a population map of the US. Texas had the most agencies, followed by Michigan and Ohio. The southern states have more agencies reporting than the lightly populated northern states. The issue here is that a number of states are in white, indicating that very few agencies reported. Indeed, four of the most populated states - California, New York, Florida, and New Jersey - do not have any agencies at all that report NIBRS data.

Since the number of agencies in a state is partially just a factor of population, Figure \@ref(fig:agenciesReportingMapPercent) shows each state as a percent of agencies in that state that report to NIBRS that also reported to the UCR Offenses Known and Clearances by Arrest (the "crime" dataset) in 2019.^[This is the UCR dataset which has the highest reporting rate.] Not all agencies in the US reported to UCR in 2019 -  and a small number reported to NIBRS but not UCR in 2019 - but this is a fairly good measure of reporting rates. Here the story looks a bit different than in the previous figure. Now we can tell that among north-western states and states along the Appalachian Mountains, nearly all agencies report. In total, 18 states have 90% or more of agencies that reported to UCR in 2019 also reporting to NIBRS. Thirteen agencies have fewer than 10% of agencies reporting to NIBRS that also reported to UCR, with 5 of these having 0% of agencies reporting. The remaining states average about 56% of agencies reporting. So when using NIBRS data, keep in mind that you have very good coverage of certain states, and very poor coverage of other states. And the low - or zero - reporting states are systematically high population states.    

```{r nibrsAnnualNumberAgencies, fig.cap = "The annual number of police agencies that report data to NIBRS."}
batch_header_all_years$number_of_months_reported <-
  as.numeric(batch_header_all_years$number_of_months_reported)


batch_header_all_years$number_of_months_reported <- 
  as.numeric(batch_header_all_years$number_of_months_reported)
batch_header_any_months <-
  batch_header_all_years %>%
  filter(number_of_months_reported > 0) %>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  summarize(any_months_number_agencies = length(unique(ori)),
         any_months_population = sum(population))


batch_header_all_years %>%
  filter(number_of_months_reported %in% 12) %>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  summarize(agencies = length(unique(ori))) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  left_join(batch_header_any_months) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = year,
             y = agencies,
             color = "12 Months")) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.05) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.05, aes(y = any_months_number_agencies, color = "At Least 1 Month")) +
  xlab("Year") +
  ylab("# of Agencies") +
  theme_crim() +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::comma, expand = c(0, 0), limits = c(0, NA)) +
  labs(color = "") +
  expand_limits(y = 0) +
  scale_color_manual(values = c("12 Months" = "#1b9e77",
                                "At Least 1 Month" = "#d95f02")) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = time_series_x_axis_year_breaks)
```




```{r nibrsAnnualPercentPopulation, fig.cap = "The annual percent of the United States population that is covered by an agency reporting data to NIBRS."}
us_population <- read_csv("data/resident_population_usafacts.csv")
us_population <- us_population[1,]
us_population <- data.frame(t(us_population))
us_population$year <- rownames(us_population)
names(us_population)[1] <- "us_population"
us_population <- us_population[-1, ]
rownames(us_population) <- 1:nrow(us_population)
us_population$year <- as.numeric(us_population$year)
us_population$us_population <- as.numeric(us_population$us_population)

batch_header_all_years %>%
  filter(number_of_months_reported %in% 12) %>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  summarize(population = sum(population)) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  left_join(us_population) %>%
  left_join(batch_header_any_months) %>%
  mutate(population_prop = population / us_population,
         any_months_population_prop = any_months_population / us_population,
  ) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = year,
             y = population_prop,
             color = "12 Months")) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.05) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.05, aes(y = any_months_population_prop, color = "At Least 1 Month")) +
  xlab("Year") +
  ylab("Percent of US Population") +
  theme_crim() +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent, expand = c(0, 0), limits = c(0, NA)) +
  labs(color = "") +
  expand_limits(y = 0) +
  scale_color_manual(values = c("12 Months" = "#1b9e77",
                                "At Least 1 Month" = "#d95f02")) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = time_series_x_axis_year_breaks)
```


```{r nibrsStateParticipation2000, fig.cap = "The percent of each state's population that is covered by police agencies reporting at least one month of data to NIBRS, 2000"}
fips_state_codes <- c(
  "01", "02", "04", "05", "06", "08", "09", "10", "11", "12",
  "13", "15", "16", "17", "18", "19", "20", "21", "22", "23",
  "24", "25", "26", "27", "28", "29", "30", "31", "32", "33",
  "34", "35", "36", "37", "38", "39", "40", "41", "42", "44",
  "45", "46", "47", "48", "49", "50", "51", "53", "54", "55",
  "56", "72"
)

# census_state_final <- data.frame()
# for (state_code in fips_state_codes) {
# 
#   temp <- get_acs(geography = "block group",
#                   variables = "B01003_001",
#                   year = 2022,
#                   geometry = FALSE,
#                   state = state_code)
#   census_state_final <-
#     census_state_final %>%
#     bind_rows(temp)
#   message(state_code)
# }
# saveRDS(census_state_final, "data/census_state_final.rds")
census_state_final <- readRDS("data/census_state_final.rds")

census_state_final$state <- gsub(".*, |.*; ", "", census_state_final$NAME)

census_state_final <-
  census_state_final %>%
  group_by(state) %>%
  summarize(population = sum(estimate)) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  mutate(state = tolower(state))

batch_header_percent_pop <-
  batch_header_all_years %>%
  filter(number_of_months_reported %in% 1:12,
         year %in% 2023) %>%
  mutate(state = gsub("wyoming v2", "wyoming", state)) %>%
  group_by(state) %>%
  summarize(nibrs_population = sum(population)) %>%
  left_join(census_state_final) %>%
  mutate(n = nibrs_population / population * 100) 
nibrs_state_pop_percent_2023 <-
  batch_header_percent_pop %>%
  ggplot2::ggplot(aes(map_id = state)) + 
  ggplot2::geom_map(aes(fill = n), map = fifty_states, color = "black") + 
  expand_limits(x = fifty_states$long, y = fifty_states$lat) +
  coord_map() +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = NULL) + 
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = NULL) +
  labs(x = "", y = "", fill = "% of Population Covered") +
  theme(panel.background = element_blank()) +
  fifty_states_inset_boxes() +
  scale_fill_gradient(low = "white", high = "red") +
  ggtitle("NIBRS Participation in 2022")





# census_state_final_2000 <- data.frame()
# for (state_code in fips_state_codes) {
# 
#   temp <- get_decennial(geography = "block group",
#                   variables = "P001001",
#                   year = 2000,
#                   geometry = FALSE,
#                   state = state_code)
#   census_state_final_2000 <-
#     census_state_final_2000 %>%
#     bind_rows(temp)
#   message(state_code)
# }
# saveRDS(census_state_final_2000, "data/census_state_final_2000.rds")
census_state_final_2000 <- readRDS("data/census_state_final_2000.rds")

census_state_final_2000$state <- gsub(".*, |.*; ", "", census_state_final_2000$NAME)

census_state_final_2000 <-
  census_state_final_2000 %>%
  group_by(state) %>%
  summarize(population = sum(value)) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  mutate(state = tolower(state))

batch_header_percent_pop <-
  batch_header_all_years %>%
  filter(number_of_months_reported %in% 1:12,
         year %in% 2000) %>%
  group_by(state) %>%
  summarize(nibrs_population = sum(population)) %>%
  left_join(census_state_final_2000) %>%
  mutate(n = nibrs_population / population * 100) 
batch_header_percent_pop_missing <-
  data.frame(state = 
               unique(batch_header_all_years$state[!batch_header_all_years$state %in% 
                                                     batch_header_percent_pop$state]),
             n = 0)
nibrs_state_pop_percent_2000 <- batch_header_percent_pop %>%
  bind_rows(batch_header_percent_pop_missing) %>%
  ggplot2::ggplot(aes(map_id = state)) + 
  ggplot2::geom_map(aes(fill = n), map = fifty_states, color = "black") + 
  expand_limits(x = fifty_states$long, y = fifty_states$lat) +
  coord_map() +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = NULL) + 
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = NULL) +
  labs(x = "", y = "", fill = "% of Population Covered") +
  theme(panel.background = element_blank()) +
  fifty_states_inset_boxes() +
  scale_fill_gradient(low = "white", high = "red")  +
  ggtitle("NIBRS Participation in 2000")


# census_state_final_2010 <- data.frame()
# for (state_code in fips_state_codes) {
# 
#   temp <- get_decennial(geography = "block group",
#                   variables = "P001001",
#                   year = 2010,
#                   geometry = FALSE,
#                   state = state_code)
#   census_state_final_2010 <-
#     census_state_final_2010 %>%
#     bind_rows(temp)
#   message(state_code)
# }
# saveRDS(census_state_final_2010, "data/census_state_final_2010.rds")


census_state_final_2010 <- readRDS("data/census_state_final_2010.rds")

census_state_final_2010$state <- gsub(".*, |.*; ", "", census_state_final_2010$NAME)

census_state_final_2010 <-
  census_state_final_2010 %>%
  group_by(state) %>%
  summarize(population = sum(value)) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  mutate(state = tolower(state))

batch_header_percent_pop <-
  batch_header_all_years %>%
  filter(number_of_months_reported %in% 1:12,
         year %in% 2010) %>%
  group_by(state) %>%
  summarize(nibrs_population = sum(population)) %>%
  left_join(census_state_final_2010) %>%
  mutate(n = nibrs_population / population * 100) 
batch_header_percent_pop_missing <-
  data.frame(state = 
               unique(batch_header_all_years$state[!batch_header_all_years$state %in% 
                                                     batch_header_percent_pop$state]),
             n = 0)
nibrs_state_pop_percent_2010 <-
  batch_header_percent_pop %>%
  bind_rows(batch_header_percent_pop_missing) %>%
  ggplot2::ggplot(aes(map_id = state)) + 
  ggplot2::geom_map(aes(fill = n), map = fifty_states, color = "black") + 
  expand_limits(x = fifty_states$long, y = fifty_states$lat) +
  coord_map() +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = NULL) + 
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = NULL) +
  labs(x = "", y = "", fill = "% of Population Covered") +
  theme(panel.background = element_blank()) +
  fifty_states_inset_boxes() +
  scale_fill_gradient(low = "white", high = "red") +
  ggtitle("NIBRS Participation in 2010")



nibrs_state_pop_percent_2000


```


```{r nibrsStateParticipation2010, fig.cap = "The percent of each state's population that is covered by police agencies reporting at least one month of data to NIBRS, 2010"}
nibrs_state_pop_percent_2010
```

```{r nibrsStateParticipation2022, fig.cap = "The percent of each state's population that is covered by police agencies reporting at least one month of data to NIBRS, 2023 (using 2022 ACS 5-year Census data)"}
nibrs_state_pop_percent_2023
```

## Crimes included in NIBRS

NIBRS data contains far more crime categories than in the UCR data, particularly far more than [UCR crime data](https://ucrbook.com/ucrGeneral.html#crimes-in-the-offenses-known-and-clearances-by-arrest-dataset) which contained only eight crimes (and their subcategories of crimes). It also includes several more crime categories than in the [UCR arrest data](https://ucrbook.com/ucrGeneral.html#crimes-in-the-arrests-by-age-sex-and-race-dataset) which is far more expansive than the UCR crime dataset. Compared to UCR data, however, there are occasionally more steps you must take to get the same crime category. For example, UCR crime data has the number of gun assaults each month. NIBRS data has the number of aggravated assaults only, but has a variable indicating what weapon the offender used. So you can find out how many aggravated assaults used a gun, giving you the same data as in the UCR, but you need to take extra steps to get there. 

Likewise the UCR arrest data has the number of people arrested for selling drugs (broken down into a few different categories of drugs). NIBRS data has if the crime type was a "drug/narcotic violation" which means any crime having to deal with drugs possession, sale, or manufacturing, and excluding drug equipment crimes. We then have to look first at the subcategory of offenses to see if the arrest was for possession, for sale, for manufacturing, or some other kind of drug crime. The final step to be comparable to UCR data is to look at the type of drug involved in the crime. You'll often have to do steps like this during NIBRS research. NIBRS data is available in multiple files that all (for the most part) correspond with each other so you will tend to have to combine them together to get the complete data you want. 

The crimes included in NIBRS are broken into two categories: Group A and Group B crimes.

### Group A crimes

The first set of crimes included are Group A crimes and these are really the main crimes included in NIBRS. For each of these crimes we have full data on the victim, the offender, the offense, any property stolen or damaged (or for drug crimes, seized by the police), and information about the arrestee (if any). Of course, not all of this data may be available (e.g. information on the offender is unknown) so there can be significant amounts of missing data, but each crime incident does have corresponding files with this information.

The complete list of Group A crimes is below. I have bolded the Index Crimes which are a flawed, but ubiquitous measure of crime used in the UCR crime data as the main measure of crime in the United States. The Index Crimes are murder, rape (sexual assault with an object and sodomy are only considered rape using the FBI new definition that began in 2013), aggravated assault, robbery (these four are the "Violent Index Crimes"), burglary, motor vehicle theft, and theft (these are the "Property Index Crimes". Theft here is broken down into several types of theft like purse-snatching and shoplifting. In the UCR crime dataset it is only "theft".). Arson is also technically an Index Crime (arson is considered a property crime) but is generally excluded. 

                             
* Animal Cruelty                                                     
* Arson                                                              
* __Assault Offenses - Aggravated Assault__                              
* Assault Offenses - Intimidation                                    
* __Assault Offenses - Simple Assault__
* Bad Checks                                                         
* Bribery                                                            
* __Burglary/Breaking And Entering__
* *Commerce Violations - Import Violations*
* *Commerce Violations - Export Violations*
* Commerce Violations - Federal Liquor Offenses    
* *Commerce Violations - Federal Tobacco Offenses*     
* *Commerce Violations - Wildlife Trafficking*
* Counterfeiting/Forgery                                              
* Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property                                       
* Driving Under The Influence                                        
* Drug/Narcotic Offenses - Drug Equipment Violations                 
* Drug/Narcotic Offenses - Drug/Narcotic Violations                  
* Drunkenness                                                        
* Embezzlement
* *Espionage*
* Extortion/Blackmail                                                
* Fraud Offenses - Credit Card/Atm Fraud                             
* Fraud Offenses - False Pretenses/Swindle/Confidence Game           
* Fraud Offenses - Hacking/Computer Invasion                         
* Fraud Offenses - Identity Theft                                    
* Fraud Offenses - Impersonation        
* *Fraud Offenses - Money Laundering*
* Fraud Offenses - Welfare Fraud                                     
* Fraud Offenses - Wire Fraud                                        
* Fugitive Offenses - Flight To Avoid Prosecution       
* *Fugitive Offenses - Flight to Avoid Deportation*      
* Fugitive Offenses - Harboring Escappee/Concealing From Arrest      
* Gambling Offenses - Betting/Wagering                               
* Gambling Offenses - Gambling Equipment Violations                  
* Gambling Offenses - Operating/Promoting/Assisting Gambling         
* Gambling Offenses - Sports Tampering                               
* Human Trafficking - Commercial Sex Acts                            
* Human Trafficking - Involuntary Servitude                          
* Immigration Violations - Illegal Entry Into The United States      
* *Immigration Violations - False Citizenship*
* *Immigration Violations - Smuggling Aliens*
* *Immigration Violations - Re-entry after Deportation*      
* Kidnapping/Abduction                                               
* __Larceny/Theft Offenses - All Other Larceny__
* __Larceny/Theft Offenses - Pocket-Picking__
* __Larceny/Theft Offenses - Purse-Snatching__
* __Larceny/Theft Offenses - Shoplifting__
* __Larceny/Theft Offenses - Theft From Building__
* __Larceny/Theft Offenses - Theft From Coin-Operated Machine Or Device__
* __Larceny/Theft Offenses - Theft From Motor Vehicle__
* __Larceny/Theft Offenses - Theft of Motor Vehicle Parts/Accessories__                                   
* __Motor Vehicle Theft__
* __Murder/Nonnegligent Manslaughter__
* __Negligent Manslaughter__
* Peeping Tom                                                          
* Pornography/Obscene Material                                       
* Prostitution Offenses - Assisting Or Promoting Prostitution        
* Prostitution Offenses - Prostitution                               
* Prostitution Offenses - Purchasing Prostitution                    
* __Robbery__                                             
* Sex Offenses - Failure To Register As A Sex Offender               
* Sex Offenses - Fondling (Indecent Liberties/Child Molest)          
* Sex Offenses - Incest                                              
* __Sex Offenses - Rape__
* __Sex Offenses - Sexual Assault With An Object__
* __Sex Offenses - Sodomy__
* Sex Offenses - Statutory Rape                                      
* Stolen Property Offenses (Receiving, Selling, Etc.)    
* *Treason*
* Weapon Law Violations - Explosives                                 
* *Weapon Law Violations - Violation of National Firearm Act of 1934*                                 
* Weapon Law Violations - Weapon Law Violations 
* *Weapon Law Violations - Weapons of Mass Destruction*

### Group B crimes

The other set of crimes included in NIBRS are called Group B crimes. For these crimes, only the arrestee segment is available, meaning that we have far more limited data on these incidents than for Group A crimes. Unlike Group A, we only have data here when a person was arrested for the crime, so we do not know how often they occur without an arrest made. These crimes are considered Group B rather than Group A, according to the FBI, because they are less serious or less common than Group A crimes. This is not really true though. They are certainly less serious than the most serious Group A crimes but include offenses more serious than some Group A crimes. For example, DUIs can potentially lead to serious injury if they crash into someone (if they did then that would likely be considered a charge like manslaughter or assault, but DUIs still have the *potential* to cause great harm) and peeping toms are an invasion of privacy and can cause serious distress to their victims. Relative to crimes like shoplifting, Group B offenses can indeed be more serious. Group B crimes are also quite common, particularly the catch-all category All Other Offenses. 

One way I like to think of Group B crimes is that they are mostly - excluding peeping tom - victim-less crimes, or more specifically crimes without a specific victim. For example, in DUIs there is no individual victim; public drunkenness may disturb certain people around the event but they are not the victims of the drunkenness. There are Group A crimes where the same is true, such as drug offenses, but I think this is a helpful way of thinking about Group B crimes. 

* All Other Offenses - excludes traffic violations
* Bad Checks (removed starting in 2021)
* Curfew/Loitering/Vagrancy Violations
* Disorderly Conduct
* Driving Under The Influence (DUI)
* Drunkenness (removed starting in 2021)
* Failure To Appear
* Family Offenses, Nonviolent
* Federal Resource Violations
* Liquor Law Violations
* Peeping Tom (removed starting in 2021)
* Perjury
* Runaway
* Trespass of Real Property

## Differences from SRS data

While NIBRS data is a far more expansive and detailed dataset than the SRS data, in most cases you can convert NIBRS to SRS which allows for continuation of data over time. So the switch from SRS to NIBRS adds a lot of information but loses relatively little. That relatively little amount of difference, however, can impact the types of questions we can ask so they are detailed below.

### NIBRS does not have unfounded crimes

In SRS data, which provides monthly counts of crimes (as well as more detailed information on hate crimes and homicides, and monthly counts of arrests), there is a count of "unfounded" crimes in each month. An unfounded crime is just one which was previously reported and then new evidence finds out that it never actually occurred (or that it is not for the crime that was reported). For example, if you misplace your wallet but think it is stolen you may call the police and report it stolen. This would be recorded in SRS data as a theft. If you then find your wallet and tell the police, then it would be changed to an unfounded crime since the reported theft never actually happened. NIBRS data does not include unfounded data at all so you do not know how many reported crimes turn out to not be true. In practice, this does not matter too much as unfounded crimes are rare, constituting generally under 2% of each crime type. The major exception is in rape, where some agencies report that over 10% of rapes in certain years are unfounded. 

Unfounded crimes are also a way that the SRS used to identify justifiable homicides and when police killed someone. But that way was not always used properly and NIBRS data already includes justifiable homicide as a crime category so this is not a problem.

#### NIBRS does not have negative numbers

Negative numbers in SRS data are because when a crime is reported and then later unfounded, in the month that it is unfounded it is classified as -1 crimes. This is so over the long term (i.e. more than a single month) the positive (but incorrect, and therefore later unfounded) reports and the negative reports to deal with unfounding would equal out so you have the actual number of crimes. In practice though this tended to end up confusing users - though only users who did not read the manual. Since NIBRS does not have unfounded data, and since it is not aggregated beyond the incident-level anyways, there are no negative numbers in NIBRS data.


## A summary of each segment file

NIBRS data is often discussed - and is used - as if it were a single file with all of this information available. But it actually comes as multiple different files that each provide different information about a crime incident, including at different levels of analysis so users must clean each segment before merging them together. In this section we will discuss each of the segments and how they are related to each other. First, keep in mind that NIBRS is at its core an incident-level dataset (hence the "Incident-Based" part of its name). Everything that we have stems from the incident, even though we can get more detailed and look at, for example, individual victims in an incident or even offenses within an incident. Figure \@ref(fig:segmentFlowchart) shows the seven main segments and how they relate to each other. There are also three segments called "window segments" - there is one for arrestees, one of exceptional clearances (i.e. police could have made an arrest but did not for some reason but still consider the case closed), and one for property - that do not have an associated segment with them, they only have the information available in the given "window" segment. We will talk about window segments more in Section \@ref(window) below.

```{r segmentFlowchart, fig.cap="The association of each segment file in the NIBRS dataset."}
knitr::include_graphics('images/nibrsSegments.png')
```

The first two boxes in Figure \@ref(fig:segmentFlowchart), colored in orange, are not part of NIBRS but are part of the data generating process. First, obviously, a crime has to occur. The police then have to learn about the crime. This can happen in two ways. First, they can discover it themselves while on patrol. This is common in crimes such as drug possession or sale as well as any crime that occurs outdoors, which is largely where police are able to observe behavior. The second way is that the victim or witness to a crime reports it. So if they call the police to report a crime, the police learn about it from that call. We do not actually know from the data how the police learned of a crime but it is important to think about this data generating process when using the data. 
Alongside the crime being reported (or discovered) to the police, agencies must then report the crime to NIBRS. All crimes that occur in that agency's jurisdiction *should* be reported, but that is not always the case. Since reporting is voluntary (at least nationally, though some states do require agencies to report data), agencies are free to report as many or as few crimes as they wish. This often occurs when agencies report only parts of the year, excluding certain months, so you should ensure that the agency reported data for each month you are interested in.

Once a crime occurs and is reported to the police, it can be recorded to NIBRS in two ways, depending on the type of crime that occurred. If it is one of the Group B crimes, then we only get a Group B Arrestee Segment which is the same as the normal arrestee segment which we discuss in more detail below as well as in Chapter \@ref(arrestee). In this segment we have useful variables including the type of arrest (e.g. arrested by a warrant), what crime was committed, demographics of the arrestee, and weapon use. However, we are missing a wealth of information that is available in the other segments. When the crime is one of the Group A crimes, we get all of this additional information.

For Group A crimes, we get every other segment, starting with the Administrative Segment. The Administrative Segment is largely a meta-segment - it provides information about other segments. The Administrative Segment is the only incident-level segment of the collection and provides information that is consistent across every offense in the incident such as the incident date and time (in hours of the day). It also includes the type of exceptional clearance for the incident, if the incident was exceptionally cleared. The key part of this segment, however, is that it tells you how many of the Offense, Offender, Victim, and Property segments that are associated with this incident. There are always at least one of these segments per incident, but can potentially be multiple of each segment. These other segments do exactly what their name suggests, providing information about the offenses, offender, victims, and stolen or damaged property for each crime incident. Each of these segments, including the Administrative Segment, have the agency identifier code (the ORI code which is discussed on Section \@ref(ori)) and an incident number (which is just a randomly generated unique identifier for that incident) so you can merge the files together. Please note that the incident number of only unique *within* an agency. So there can - and are - incident numbers that are identical across different agencies but are for different incidents. To avoid this issue, make sure you match based on *both* the ORI code and the incident number (or make a new variable with just combines the ORI code and incident number together).

At the bottom is the Arrestee Segment which is only available when a person was arrested for that incident. This provides a bit more detailed data than the Offender Segment for everyone who was arrested for the incident. Now, in reality arrestees are not necessarily a subset of offenders as some people arrested may not be the ones included in the offender data. Consider, for example, a crime where police initially think two people committed it but end up arresting three people for the crime. The third person would be in the arrestee file but not the offender file. However, in this data there is never a case where there are more arrestees than offenders so it appears that if an offender is arrested who was not previously known to the police, they add a corresponding offender segment row for that arrestee.

### Administrative Segment

The Administrative Segment provides information about the incident itself, such as how many victims or offenders there were. In practice this means that it tells us how many other segments - offense, offender, victim, and arrestee segments - there are for this particular incident. It also has several important variables at the incident-level such as what hour of the day the incident occurred and whether the incident date variable is actually just the date the incident was reported. Finally, it tells us whether the case was cleared exceptionally and, if so, what type of exceptional clearance it was. This can tell us, for example, how many crimes were cleared because the offender died or the victim refused to cooperate. As the UCR data does not differentiate between normal clearances (i.e. arrest the offender) and exceptional clearances, this provides a far deeper understanding of case outcomes. 

### Offense Segment

This segment provides information about the offense that occurred, and each incident can have multiple offenses. This data tells you which offense occurred and for a subset of offenses it also provides a more detailed subcategory of offense, allowing a deeper dive into what exactly happened. For example, for animal abuse there are four subcategories of offenses: simple/gross neglect of an animal, intentional abuse or torture, animal sexual abuse (bestiality), and organized fighting of animals such as dog or cock fights. This segment also says what date the crime occurred on, where the crime occurred - in categories such as residence or sidewalk rather than exact coordinates in a city - whether the offender is suspected of using drugs, alcohol, or "computer equipment" (which includes cell phones) during the crime, and which weapon was used. In cases where the weapon was a firearm it says whether that weapon was fully automatic or not. It also provides information on if the crime was a hate crime by including a variable on the bias motivation (if any) of the offender. This is based on evidence that the crime was motivated, at least in part, by the victim's group (e.g. race, sexuality, religion, etc.). There are 34 possible bias motivations and while hate crimes could potentially be motivated by bias against multiple groups, this data only allows for a single bias motivation.

### Offender Segment

As might be expected, the Offender Segment provides information about who the offender is for each incident, though this is limited to only demographic variables. So we know the age, sex, and race of each offender but nothing else. This means that important variables such as criminal history, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and motive are missing. In the Victim Segment we learn about the relationship between the victim and offender, and in the Offense Segment we learn which weapon (if any) the offender used. So there is some other data on the offender in other segments but it is quite limited. This data has one row per offender so incidents with multiple offenders have multiple rows. In cases where there is no information about the offender there will be a single row where all of the offender variables will be "unknown." In these cases having a single row for the offender is merely a placeholder and does not necessarily mean that there was only one offender for that incident. However, there is no indicator for when this is a placeholder and when there was actually one offender but whose demographic information is unknown.

### Victim Segment

The Victim Segment provides data at the victim-level and includes information about who the victim is and their relationship to offenders. This data tells us what "type" of victim it is with the type meaning if they are a police officer, a civilian (called an "Individual" victim and basically any person who is not a police officer), a business, the government, etc. It also includes the standard demographics variables in other segments - age, race, sex, ethnicity - as well as whether the victim is a resident (i.e. do they live there?) of the jurisdiction where they were victimized. We also learn from this data what types of injuries (if any) the victim suffered as a result of the crime. This is limited to physical injuries - excluding important outcomes such as mental duress or PTSD - but allows for a much better measure of harm from crime than simply assuming (or using past studies that tend to be old and only look at the cost of crime) what harm comes from certain offenses. There are seven possible injury types (including no injury at all) and victims can report up to five of these injuries so we have a fairly detailed measure of victim injury.

One highly interesting variable in this segment is the relationship between the victim and the offender (for up to 10 offenders). This includes, for example, if the victim was the offender's wife, their child, employee, or if the stranger was unknown to them, with 27 total possible relationship categories. You can use this to determine which incidents were crimes by strangers, identify domestic violence, or simply learn about the victim-offender relationship for certain types of crimes. This variable is only available when the victim is a police officer or an "individual." This makes some sense though there could actually be cases where non-human victims (e.g. businesses, religious organizations) do have a relationship with the offender such as an employee stealing from a store. Related to the victim-offender relationship, this segment provides a bit of information about the motive for the crime. For aggravated assaults and homicides, there is a variable with the "circumstance" of the offense which is essentially the reason why the crime occurred. For example, possible circumstances include arguments between people, hunting accidents, child playing with weapon, and mercy killings. 

### Arrestee and Group B Arrestee Segment

The Arrestee Segment has information on the person arrested in an incident and has a number of variables that look at same as in previous segments but with subtle differences. This segment covers the arrestee's age, sex, and race, ethnicity, and residency status (of the city, not as a United States citizen). Age, sex, and race are also in the Offender Segment but can differ as not all offenders are arrested. It also says the crime the arrestee was arrested for (which in some cases is different than the crime committed in the offense since an arrest can clear multiple incidents), the weapon carried during the arrest (which may be different than the weapon used during the offense) and if this weapon (if it is a firearm) was an automatic weapon. There are a few completely new variables including the date of the arrest and the type of arrest. The type of arrest is simply whether the person was arrested by police who viewed the crime, if the arrest followed an arrest warrant or a previous arrest (i.e. arrested for a different crime and then police find out you also committed this one so they consider you arrested for this one too), and whether the person was cited by police and ordered to appear in court but not formally taken into custody. Finally, for juvenile arrestees it says whether arrestees were "handled within the department" which means they were released without formal sanctions or were "referred to other authorities" such as juvenile or criminal court, a welfare agency, or probation or parole department (for those on probation or parole). 

### Property Segment

The Property Segment provides a bit more information than would be expected from the name. For each item involved in the crime it tells you what category that items falls into, with 68 total categories of types of property (including "other") ranging from explosives and pets to money and alcohol. It also tells you the estimated value of that item. This data covers more than just items stolen during a crime. For each item it tells you what happened to that item such as if it was stolen, damaged, seized by police (such as illegal items like drugs), recovered by police, or burned during an arson.

For drug offenses it includes the drugs seized by police. For these offenses, the data tells us the type of drug, with 16 different drug categories ranging from specific ones like marijuana or heroin to broader categories such as "other narcotics". There can be up to three different drugs included in this data - if the person has more than three types of drugs seized then the third drug category will simply indicate that there are more than three drugs, so we learn what the first two drugs are but not the third or greater drugs are in these cases. For each drug we also know exactly how much was seized with one variable saying the amount the police found and another saying the units we should we reading that amount as (e.g. pills, grams, plants). 

### Window segments {#window}

The final set of segments are the "Window" segments which are partial reports meaning that the incident does not have all of the other segment files associated with it. There are three window segments Window Arrestee, Window Property, and Window Exceptional Clearance. All three are very rare relative to non-window data and are generally no more than several thousand incidents per year (the non-window data is several million per year). Window files are here when the crime occurred before the agency started reporting to NIBRS and then the arrest happened after they switched to NIBRS.