forked from gjord/gwern.net
-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
HN.page
1261 lines (1211 loc) · 77.9 KB
/
HN.page
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
574
575
576
577
578
579
580
581
582
583
584
585
586
587
588
589
590
591
592
593
594
595
596
597
598
599
600
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
608
609
610
611
612
613
614
615
616
617
618
619
620
621
622
623
624
625
626
627
628
629
630
631
632
633
634
635
636
637
638
639
640
641
642
643
644
645
646
647
648
649
650
651
652
653
654
655
656
657
658
659
660
661
662
663
664
665
666
667
668
669
670
671
672
673
674
675
676
677
678
679
680
681
682
683
684
685
686
687
688
689
690
691
692
693
694
695
696
697
698
699
700
701
702
703
704
705
706
707
708
709
710
711
712
713
714
715
716
717
718
719
720
721
722
723
724
725
726
727
728
729
730
731
732
733
734
735
736
737
738
739
740
741
742
743
744
745
746
747
748
749
750
751
752
753
754
755
756
757
758
759
760
761
762
763
764
765
766
767
768
769
770
771
772
773
774
775
776
777
778
779
780
781
782
783
784
785
786
787
788
789
790
791
792
793
794
795
796
797
798
799
800
801
802
803
804
805
806
807
808
809
810
811
812
813
814
815
816
817
818
819
820
821
822
823
824
825
826
827
828
829
830
831
832
833
834
835
836
837
838
839
840
841
842
843
844
845
846
847
848
849
850
851
852
853
854
855
856
857
858
859
860
861
862
863
864
865
866
867
868
869
870
871
872
873
874
875
876
877
878
879
880
881
882
883
884
885
886
887
888
889
890
891
892
893
894
895
896
897
898
899
900
901
902
903
904
905
906
907
908
909
910
911
912
913
914
915
916
917
918
919
920
921
922
923
924
925
926
927
928
929
930
931
932
933
934
935
936
937
938
939
940
941
942
943
944
945
946
947
948
949
950
951
952
953
954
955
956
957
958
959
960
961
962
963
964
965
966
967
968
969
970
971
972
973
974
975
976
977
978
979
980
981
982
983
984
985
986
987
988
989
990
991
992
993
994
995
996
997
998
999
1000
---
title: Hacker News submission analysis
description: Describing HN submissions; estimating manipulability
created: 25 Sep 2013
tags: statistics
status: notes
confidence: likely
importance: 2
...
Related:
- http://nathanael.hevenet.com/the-best-time-to-post-on-hacker-news-a-comprehensive-answer/
- http://minimaxir.com/2014/02/hacking-hacker-news/
- http://minimaxir.com/2014/10/hn-comments-about-comments/
- http://karpathy.ca/myblog/2013/11/27/quantifying-hacker-news-with-50-days-of-data/ https://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/hn_analysis.html
- http://metamarkets.com/2011/hacking-hacker-news-headlines/
- http://danluu.com/randomize-hn/
- http://www.bayesianwitch.com/blog/2013/why_hn_shouldnt_use_randomized_algorithms.html
- http://camdp.com/blogs/multi-armed-bandits
- http://gkosev.blogspot.com/2012/08/fixing-hacker-news-mathematical-approach.html
- http://blog.rjmetrics.com/2012/10/17/surprising-hacker-news-data-analysis/
- http://blog.rjmetrics.com/2012/10/24/how-to-get-on-the-front-page-of-hacker-news/
- http://blog.datadive.net/which-topics-get-the-upvote-on-hacker-news/
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8790134
- https://porter.io/blog/hackernews-cheaters-catch-me-if-you-can/ https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9332889
- http://www.righto.com/2013/11/how-hacker-news-ranking-really-works.html
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9336759 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9333611
- http://www.almostinfinite.com/other/hacker-news-new-page-scroll-of-death.html?
- https://intoli.com/blog/hacker-news-title-tool/
- http://cs229.stanford.edu/proj2016/report/GengYuanWang-PredictingPopularityOfPostsOnHackerNews-report.pdf
- http://varianceexplained.org/r/hn-trends/
Page view counts:
- 11.8k https://web.archive.org/web/20130719064119/http://aberrant.me/front-page-of-hacker-news/
- 15k http://www.mikedellanoce.com/2012/09/my-first-hacker-news-effect-experience.html
- 30k, 12k http://shkspr.mobi/blog/2012/11/whats-the-front-page-of-hackernews-worth/
- 8.5k http://tumbling.alastair.is/post/17661390124/fun-with-analytics-pitting-hacker-news-and
- 15k http://najafali.com/zero-to-fifteen-thousand-in-twenty-four-hours.html
- 15.2k http://www.matvoz.com/blog/2013/10/interesting-facts-about-when-you-get-hit-by-hacker-news-tsunami/
- 7k unique visitors http://greig.cc/journal/2013/1/what-does-a-hacker-news-traffic-spike-look-like
- 10k unique visitors https://whoapi.com/blog/554/how-hacker-news-hit-us-with-10-000-unique-visitors-in-10-hours/
- >40k unique visitors https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7427542 "in one 24 hour period, 35,000 visits and 32,000 uniques"
- https://medium.com/p/81bd75a39425
- https://baremetrics.io/blog/hacker-news-1500-recurring-revenue
- 100 views, +4 https://en.avion.io/blog/?_escaped_fragment_=/post/the-story-of-our-hackernews-submission#!/post/the-story-of-our-hackernews-submission
- 5k pageviews, 3.6k, +42 uniques http://blog.remoteworknewsletter.com/2014/10/15/how-to-valdiate-an-idea-on-hacker-news/
- 41.3k http://ptotrading.blogspot.com/2014/11/a-message-to-all-non-daytraders-and.html
- 15,223 sessions https://blog.wearewizards.io/the-hacker-news-effect-examined
# Submissions
Question: is submitting to HN worthwhile?
Simple experiment: submit each day one link to gwern.net + 2 links to other domains. These serve as both a rough control for that day's difficulty of front page, any benefits or penalties applied to my account, and repayment to HN for the potential spamming.
per nathanael's post, I tried to consistently post around 10AM EST (I don't get up early enough to do 7-8AM EST). Apparently he's wrong? Oh well.
https://news.ycombinator.com/submitted?id=gwern
extract stats from http://hn.algolia.com/#!/story/sort_by_date/prefix/0/author%3Agwern ? API: https://hn.algolia.com/api
https://github.com/HackerNews/API
Sep 2013, started with: '"Equoid" (Charles Stross meets My Little Pony)' (http://www.tor.com/stories/2013/09/equoid) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6445266 5 points by gwern 6 months ago; 0 comments
multi-level Poisson model? Group by Domain and cross group by Day. mixture model? seems appropriate for two different groups (those who make front page and those who don't)
can't filter GA by ycombinator.com: https breaks referrers
HN API:
wget 'http://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search_by_date?tags=story,author_gwern&hitsPerPage=1000'
How to get all my comments? This doesn't work:
wget 'http://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search?tags=author_gwern,(comment)&hitsPerPage=999&page=2'
http://hn.algolia.com/api/v1/search?tags=author_gwern,(comment)&hitsPerPage=1000
{"hits":[],"page":2,"nbHits":0,"nbPages":0,"hitsPerPage":999,"processingTimeMS":1,"message":"you can only fetch the 1000 hits for this query, contact us to increase the limit","query":"","params":"advancedSyntax=true\u0026analytics=false\u0026hitsPerPage=999\u0026page=2\u0026tags=author_gwern%2C%28comment%29"}
algolia API is apparently heavily limited: https://github.com/fraction/node-hacker-news-api/issues/11
New API using Firebase https://github.com/HackerNews/API
~~~{.R}
library(RCurl)
library(rjson)
user <- "gwern"
user <- fromJSON(getURL(paste0("https://hacker-news.firebaseio.com/v0/user/",user,".json")))
userAll <- sapply(user$submitted, function(id) { Sys.sleep(1); return(fromJSON(getURL(paste0("https://hacker-news.firebaseio.com/v0/item/",id,".json")))); } )
~~~
# /newest
> The social news service Hacker News has a two-layered organization, where newly submitted links are displayed on a '/newest' page seen by few users, and the best (as determined by users voting on each submission) are automatically selected for display on the high-traffic main front-page which most HN users read.
> I hypothesized that there is a lack of traffic on /newest and this implies that even one vote can substantially affect the chance a particular submission will reach the front-page, its ultimate score, and page-views of the submitted link.
> A randomized experiment in upvoting small batches of links confirms that the effect is real & large: TODO.
While using HN, as a sort of 'public service', I occasionally made sure to visit the [newest submissions](https://news.ycombinator.com/newest "New Links") page rather than just the [main front page](https://news.ycombinator.com/news) most people read.
After a while, I noticed that the links I upvoted there seemed to be turning up a lot on the front page, more than I would expect from my usual pattern of upvoting perhaps 5 links out of the 30 available.
A horrible suspicion struck me: could the apparent arbitrariness of what links made the front page be caused by the /newest page being *so* sparsely voted upon that a single upvote made a meaningful difference?
## Methodology
I decided to do a randomized parallel groups experiment to test:
On /newest, take the first 5 links (#1-5, to maximize impact), do a simple 50-50 randomization on each to decide whether to upvote or ignore (I have a shell function for randomization: `echo "$((RANDOM % 2 < 1))"`);
and make no votes on any other /newest items (I allowed myself my usual browsing & upvoting on the main page while I was there).
As I have 'noprocast' turned on for 180 minutes, each group of 5 links should have been separated by a minimum of 3 hours (more than enough time for all links to fall off /newest).
This was typically done during HN's busiest hours: 11AM-midnight EST.
I was not blinded during the experiment, but the writeup & list were never public while the experiment was running.
I used my existing high-karma (>7k) account since there doesn't seem to be any weighting of upvotes, reading through ["Inside the news.yc ranking formula"](http://www.righto.com/2009/06/how-does-newsyc-ranking-work.html), ["How Hacker News ranking algorithm works"](http://amix.dk/blog/post/19574) & [discussion](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1781013).
A power calculation for sample size is hard to do: I don't have a Poisson power function handy, and I don't expect the data to fit a Poisson too well due to the stark contrast between the front-page and /newest.
(And I do want a well-powered experiment - the only thing more wasteful than an overpowered experiment is an underpowered weak experiment.)
However, I do expect the necessary sample to be quite large by the standards of continuous normally-distributed data.
Most submissions to /newest fail to gain more than an upvote or two, which means that most of the sample contains little information about whether the extra upvote helped them reach the front-page or not.
Further, I don't just want to estimate whether the net effect of upvoting is >1, I would like a reasonably precise estimate of *what* the effect is: knowing that it's, say, +2-10, is not very satisfactory. ("The oncoming car is somewhere between 10 meters and a kilometer away.")
All in all, I don't expect the necessary _n_ to be <200.
I decided to stop at _n_=300.
The experiment ran from 16 March 2014 - 31 March 2014.
On 22 April, after doing my planned analysis, the results turned out to be as expected but weaker than I'd prefer (turned out a *lot* of the sample is just a waste as they are stuck at +1/2) and so I resumed randomization to get another 100 links or so.
I stopped the additional randomization on 6 May.
## Analysis plan
The analysis strategy is:
1. a non-parametric test of difference in mean scores
2. dichotomize the items by <10 as a proxy for having made it to the front-page for a meaningful amount of time, for a [logistic regression](!Wikipedia) to estimate increase in front-page odds
3. attempt a Poisson regression on scores, to extract an estimate of the difference in means
4. something fancier, suggested by the data (such as a [mixture model](!Wikipedia) of Poissons, perhaps, to split between front-page and non-front-page)
TODO: extract page views & time on page from my old Analytics, letting me calculate 'how much time am I steering with, say, 10 upvotes on /newest?'
## Data
upvoted:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410094
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410068
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410065
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410052
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411076
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411073
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412318
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416907
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416897
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416891
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418265
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418223
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419205
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419194
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419188
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419183
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422967
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422954
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422948
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426089
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426084
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426073
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426670
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429611
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430953
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432226
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432225
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433186
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433144
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436121
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436113
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436110
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436091
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7437717
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7439392
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7439390
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7443074
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7443051
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7444167
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7445317
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7445314
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7446530
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7446524
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450534
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450531
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450528
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450527
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7450519
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451229
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451212
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451762
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7453752
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7453738
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7455416
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7456099
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7456090
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7456069
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7459234
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7459220
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7459217
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7459214
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7460853
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7460844
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462246
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462233
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462356
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462345
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462326
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7463289
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7463259
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7463235
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7466412
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7466409
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7466404
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7467802
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7467788
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7470701
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7470633
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7470619
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7473787
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7473770
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7473759
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7475102
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7475098
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7476652
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7476649
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7476644
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7476640
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7477631
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7477630
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7477629
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7477600
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7478328
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7478333
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7481022
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7481021
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7481012
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7481011
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7482433
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7482392
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7482391
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7483717
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7483718
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484560
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484554
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484541
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484539
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7484522
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7485210
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7487677
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7488960
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7490310
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7490307
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7490306
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7490287
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7491047
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7491031
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7491030
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492283
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492281
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492276
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492264
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492964
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492939
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492938
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7493774
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7493736
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7493730
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7496906
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7497795
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7498485
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7498474
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7499221
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7499218
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7499183
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7501511
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7501500
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7502814
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7502802
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7502801
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7628002
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7629426
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630675
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630660
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630657
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631449
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631445
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634123
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634120
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634099
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635489
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635479
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636681
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637667
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638285
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638261
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638240
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7640751
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7640742
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7640734
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7641897
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7641895
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7643084
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7643078
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7644238
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7644232
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7644203
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7644199
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7646719
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7646709
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7646694
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7646691
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7647963
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7647958
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7647954
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7648978
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649855
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649823
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649815
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649810
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7650256
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7650232
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7650229
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7651604
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7651592
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7651579
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7651563
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652270
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652260
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652254
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652800
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652798
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652777
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652764
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652761
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653301
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653297
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653273
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653267
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653745
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653723
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655287
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655281
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655278
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656019
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656003
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656858
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656806
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656778
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657521
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657518
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657515
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657497
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658020
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660808
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660796
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662240
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662217
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663572
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663567
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663540
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663539
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664488
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664475
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664460
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667576
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667540
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669036
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669035
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669027
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669025
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670043
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670035
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670101
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670969
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673841
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673831
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673809
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675258
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676629
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676615
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681583
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681581
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681566
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682763
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682760
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682751
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683584
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683556
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683555
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687323
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687316
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687307
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7688997
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7688986
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7688985
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691192
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7692029
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7692010
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7692040
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694347
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694346
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694332
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694319
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695847
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696461
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696459
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696458
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696844
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696843
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698827
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698826
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700220
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701855
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701835
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702514
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702509
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702505
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702500
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704503
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704485
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705794
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705789
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706898
ignored:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7410071
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411079
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411066
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7411060
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412315
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412294
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412252
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7412241
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416935
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7416922
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418230
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418225
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7418222
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7419192
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422960
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7422959
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424951
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424928
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424923
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424910
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7424896
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426094
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426074
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426699
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426643
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7426640
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429618
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429616
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429609
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7429604
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430954
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430949
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430946
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7430939
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432227
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432222
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7432217
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433188
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433184
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433160
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7433144
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7436103
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7437748
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7437745
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7437726
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7437718
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7439413
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7439405
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7439385
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7440232
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7440220
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7440217
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7440212
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7440205
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7443068
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7443053
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7443041
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7444177
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7444169
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7444160
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7444155
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7445325
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7445320
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7445303
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7446563
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7446533
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7446522
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7449691
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7449688
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7449681
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7449666
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7449663
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451253
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451233
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451228
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451745
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451738
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451732
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451719
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451824
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451819
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451808
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451788
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7451762
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7453743
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7453712
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7453702
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7455421
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7455419
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7455406
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7455377
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7456109
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7456095
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7459215
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7460872
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7460871
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7460867
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462235
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462232
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462223
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462348
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7462344
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7463279
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7463247
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7466408
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7466402
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7467813
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7467795
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7467784
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7469237
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7469230
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7469219
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7469216
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7469215
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7470681
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7470620
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7473757
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7475103
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7475086
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7476651
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7477616
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7478348
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7478335
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7478329
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7481025
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7482435
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7482404
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7483729
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7483728
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7483723
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7485245
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7485238
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7485206
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7485203
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7487691
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7487685
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7487673
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7487669
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7487667
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7488958
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7488952
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7488950
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7488948
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7490316
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7491026
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7491003
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492252
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492943
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7492928
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7493776
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7493716
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7496943
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7496925
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7496923
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7496921
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7497764
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7497758
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7497744
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7497742
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7498462
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7498455
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7498452
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7499254
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7499240
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7501530
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7501519
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7501516
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7502812
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7502804
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7628015
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7628009
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7627995
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7627991
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7629448
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7629428
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7629413
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7629406
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630669
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7630653
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631468
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631447
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7631441
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634108
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7634104
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635476
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635475
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7635470
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636703
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636700
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636687
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7636678
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637697
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637690
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637689
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637673
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7637667
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638293
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638283
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7638238
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7640756
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7640747
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7641898
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7641892
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7641887
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7643067
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7643065
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7643054
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7644208
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7646710
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7647972
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7647962
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649001
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7648995
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7648988
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7648984
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7649849
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7650241
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7650238
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7651557
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652264
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7652259
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653273
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653808
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653787
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7653766
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655279
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655266
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656043
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656017
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7655970
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656846
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7656800
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7657502
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658033
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658030
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658029
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7658026
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660785
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660768
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7660755
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662237
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662225
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7662221
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7663552
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664490
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7664470
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667554
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667541
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7667523
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7669037
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670095
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670045
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670973
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670957
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670947
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7670939
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673837
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7673805
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675264
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675253
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675250
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7675243
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676629
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676618
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7676609
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677459
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677457
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677456
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677454
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7677453
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680140
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680136
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680123
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680118
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7680115
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681573
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7681572
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682754
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7682752
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683569
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7683527
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7686007
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7686001
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7686000
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7685989
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7685986
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687318
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7687313
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7689018
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7689003
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691261
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691241
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691205
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691196
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7692038
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7691998
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7694351
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695912
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695875
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695870
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7695851
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696467
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696463
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696841
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696830
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7696827
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698818
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698816
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7698798
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700216
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700201
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700200
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7700193
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701837
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701821
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7701800
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7702515
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704515
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704500
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7704473
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705803
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705798
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7705782
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706885
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706883
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706882
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7706870
The 2 groups are not exactly balanced due to the simple randomization.
One URL suffered a typo and I could not figure out what the original was, so for one block I randomized an extra link (a #6).
The _n_ should be divisible by 5, but is off by TODO 1; I think I must have failed to copy-paste one link at some point.
~~~{.Bash}
for URL in `xclip -o`; do elinks -dump $URL | egrep ' points* by '; sleep 2s; done
~~~
## Analysis
basic analysis:
~~~{.R}
upvoted <- c(3,27,2,19,60,2,69,2,14,6,72,9,2,2,2,57,2,3,31,2,2,32,2,3,2,2,33,2,8,2,2,2,8,4,2,2,8,4,55,2,10,7,327,35,58,70,6,14,3,2,2,79,3,2,100,2,5,4,7,72,2,2,158,2,3,2,73,59,54,2,76,7,141,2,424,11,2,6,2,3,3,3,2,2,2,2,3,126,3,2,2,3,2,3,2,7,4,2,6,2,2,42,2,2,2,3,2,5,77,2,5,5,13,85,19,2,2,2,6,6,2,2,30,72,2,2,6,2,2,4,17,2) - 1
ignored <- c(1,1,1,2,1,2,2,1,1,2,1,2,5,154,1,1,8,2,1,2,1,2,1,1,7,1,1,1,2,329,5,1,1,94,2,1,1,2,1,3,1,1,3,132,1,2,1,2,1,2,2,1,3,2,1,3,1,3,2,5,3,14,62,3,1,1,2,12,112,1,1,2,6,3,2,1,1,1,1,14,1,1,1,2,1,39,4,3,1,1,1,1,9,3,1,1,84,1,5,4,5,1,1,4,270,1,1,1,1,1,5,1,1,1,1,1,3,1,30,5,244,1,1,45,7,4,1,5,1,1,2,1,2,4,1,1,11,61,1,1,1,82,1,2,8,68,7,2,4,89,5,62,25,2,2,2,1,124,179,1,2)
wilcox.test(upvoted, ignored)
# ...W = 11758, p-value = 0.09914
hn <- data.frame(Scores = c(upvoted, ignored), FrontPage = c(upvoted>10, ignored>10), Upvoted = c(rep(TRUE, length(upvoted)), rep(FALSE, length(ignored))))
library(ggplot2)
qplot(1:length(Scores), sort(Scores), color= hn[order(hn$Scores, decreasing=FALSE),]$Upvoted, data=hn)
library(plotrix)
histStack(hn$Scores, hn$Upvoted, breaks=25)
g1 <- glm(FrontPage ~ Upvoted, family="binomial", data = hn); summary(g1)
# ...Coefficients:
# Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept) -1.742 0.221 -7.87 3.5e-15
# UpvotedTRUE 0.723 0.296 2.44 0.015
exp(coef(g1))
# (Intercept) UpvotedTRUE
# 0.1752 2.0597
exp(confint(g1))
# 2.5 % 97.5 %
# (Intercept) 0.1108 0.2649
# UpvotedTRUE 1.1579 3.7167
Reduce(`*`, exp(coef(g1)), 1)
# [1] 0.3608
## a single upvote on /newest is currently estimated as increasing the odds of making the front page by 2.25x (from 16% to 36%)
## or to put it another way, from a mean score of +16 to a mean score of +22
g2 <- glm(Scores ~ Upvoted, family="poisson", data = hn); summary(g2)
# ...Coefficients:
# Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept) 2.7907 0.0195 142.9 <2e-16
# UpvotedTRUE 0.2914 0.0270 10.8 <2e-16
exp(coef(g2))
# (Intercept) UpvotedTRUE
# 16.292 1.338
exp(Reduce(`+`, coef(g2), 0))
# [1] 21.28
library(flexmix)
fit4 <- (stepFlexmix(Scores ~ Upvoted, data=hn, model = FLXMRglmfix(family = "poisson"), k=4, nrep=20))
# summary(fit4)
# prior size post>0 ratio
# Comp.1 0.0643 19 28 0.679
# Comp.2 0.4506 133 140 0.950
# Comp.3 0.1126 32 90 0.356
# Comp.4 0.3725 109 114 0.956
#
# 'log Lik.' -1154 (df=11)
# AIC: 2330 BIC: 2371
summary(refit(fit4))
# $Comp.1
# Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept) 2.485 0.120 20.7 <2e-16
# UpvotedTRUE 1.892 0.123 15.4 <2e-16
#
# $Comp.2
# Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept) 0.6002 0.0734 8.18 2.9e-16
# UpvotedTRUE 5.3254 0.0820 64.95 < 2e-16
#
# $Comp.3
# Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept) 4.3955 0.0309 142.4 <2e-16
# UpvotedTRUE -3.5918 0.0794 -45.3 <2e-16
#
# $Comp.4
# Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
# (Intercept) 5.4605 0.0292 187.1 <2e-16
# UpvotedTRUE -2.3164 0.0712 -32.5 <2e-16
exp(0.6002); exp(2.485); exp(4.3955); exp(5.4605)
# [1] 1.822
# [1] 12
# [1] 81.09
# [1] 235.2
~~~
Note that the submissions were chosen to maximize the impact of an upvote by upvoting the first 5 links on /newest and hence the most recently submitted: a submission at the very bottom, like #30, will benefit least from an upvote since its time is up and it's almost vanished.
If the effect on the first 5 is TODO, and the effect on the last link (#30) is 0, then a reasonable guess at the mean effect over all links is simply TODO/2.
## Reddit comparison
One might wonder if HN is uniquely aberrant in this lottery; the most natural comparison is the social news site Reddit.
I picked /r/prog (a very large subreddit comparable to HN in size) and manipulated their [/new/](http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/new/) the same way
### Data
upvoted:
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20nypu/get_certified_and_become_a_real_licensed_software/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20nvtk/writing_the_perfect_question_by_jon_skeet/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ns9t/wit_natural_language_for_the_internet_of_things/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20nowy/lazyrouter_translates_requests_into_method_calls/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ofgx/hiring_front_and_back_end_dev_in_southern/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ofbs/the_chinese_wikipedia_article_on_quicksort_has/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20o6vp/refreshing_part_of_a_page_using_jquery_load_and/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20o32o/i_have_been_in_my_current_job_for_a_while_and_i/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20q8zs/mozilla_and_unity_bring_unity_game_engine_to_webgl/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20q4la/native_interconnect_the_isthmus_in_the_jvm/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20qjp4/my_experience_with_mob_programming/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20qjeg/on_replacing_objective_c/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20r1ht/illconsidered_choices_coffee_and_its_effects_on/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20qukz/an_interesting_erlang_alternative_to_ruby_on_rails/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20qssi/how_to_nuget_jquery_1_the_right_way/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20rmuc/why_not_automate_your_development_environment_too/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20rl34/design_patterns_cheat_sheet/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20rbem/typesafe_go_reactive_with_java_8/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20r5n0/samsung_releases_sdk_for_wristwatch_apps/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20thjg/john_boyd_and_the_origins_of_agility/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20tghe/announcing_the_oculus_rift_development_kit_2_dk2/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20t58p/ubuntu_1404_now_runs_well_on_the_2013_macbook_air/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20tzve/a_dead_simple_terminal_version_of_2048_with_a/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20tvl3/views_in_java_collections_framework/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20tufm/there_is_no_single_mental_model_for_programming/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ttvw/accelerated_development_not_planning_is_for_losers/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20trth/creating_a_better_nrpe_agent/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ua1t/the_history_of_computing_lectures/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20u9gx/kirks_quest_online_coding_contest_the_future_of/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20u7sc/flash_is_dead_long_live_openfl/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ulsv/refactoring_taming_the_bunnies/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20uezj/open_by_default_releasing_my_campaign_platform_a/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20ud73/not_sure_if_correct_subbreddit_but_heres_a_very/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20u1um/software_laws_2014_pdf/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20v0fq/the_inverted_software_datablock_quick_start/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20wqob/lessons_from_a_silicon_valley_job_search_robert/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20wnxf/you_cant_buy_agile/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20wk67/the_four_deadly_sins_of_linq_data_access_part/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20x6kc/dispelling_the_myth_of_the_floatingpoint_pdf/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20x4rs/changes_in_the_microsoft_mvp_program_mvps_for/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20x4eo/reset_element_css_to_blank_state/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20x1lr/poppy_an_opensource_software_hardware_humanoid/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20xk8y/microsoft_detailed_directx_12_promising_a/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20xhr9/discussion_about_programming_languages_with_the/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20xfqn/appmethod_builds_apps_for_android_ios_windows_and/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20y1vv/handling_nodejs_dependencies_at_box/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/20xzc8/hey_freelancers_of_rprogramming_help_fill_out_a/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/210540/a_software_engineers_life_in_developing_country/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21047p/efficient_dsp_filters_with_template_haskell/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/210nru/get_all_the_things_or_how_not_to_write_a_web_api/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/210lyk/the_road_coders_survival_kit/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/211fum/a_small_project_i_made_for_implementing_sliders/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/2119ag/perl_encryption_primer_block_ciphers/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/2131cg/larry_page_id_rather_leave_my_billions_to_elon/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/212pkq/mario_ai_using_multiple_random_reinforcement/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/212lm8/npm_newly_paranoid_maintainers/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/213do3/on_my_birthday_last_year_i_made_an_app_to/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/213c7p/bit_gathering_and_base2tobase3_conversion_for/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/212l84/programming_on_the_toilet/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/215jmx/recursive_queries_in_postgresql/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/215dvi/exploring_computergenerated_poetry_and_trying_to/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/218z27/michael_feathers_ripeness_for_refactoring/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/218yff/popcorn_time_goodbye/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/219pvt/goodbye_firefox_marketplace_on_brendan_eich/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/219lnd/this_week_in_rust/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/219jg6/using_q_and_jquery_promises_to_compose_complex/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21bud5/now_anyone_in_the_world_can_learn_web_development/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21btl8/clojure_16_released/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21brwc/easy_money_code_html5_forms_and_sell_them_here/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21bq6i/solving_puzzles_with_f_or_how_to_impress_your/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21cd09/join_the_resistance_teaser_for_codingame_0426/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21c6r7/using_aws_apis_without_a_server/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21c6o5/how_to_build_speechtotext_chat_with_pubnub_and_wit/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21clv3/what_its_like_to_use_haskell_in_production/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21cos2/six_degrees_of_kevin_bacon_in_six_languages_over/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ckx6/cooperative_zombies_programming_game/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21eznx/principles_of_good_data_analysis/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ezh3/javascript_equality_table/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21fj3p/the_exponential_binary_chess_clock_countdown/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21fiz1/how_to_build_a_simple_voting_app_like_hacker_news/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21fhy7/ian_cooper_tdd_where_did_it_all_go_wrong/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21g31f/tip_seamless_restarts_with_unicorn_and_upstart/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21fz4o/google_io_2014/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21gnmn/text_mode_2048_game_in_c_for_your_linux_console/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21gim9/coding_interview_practice/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21gq5o/quick_start_test_driven_development_channel_9/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21g3iq/a_beginners_guide_to_contributing_to_open_source/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21icfm/facebook_with_help_from_google_linkedin_twitter/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21iav6/c_status/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21i7gd/ccv_06_open_sources_near_stateoftheart_image/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21i19h/a_generic_cc_makefile/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ixzp/bram_cohens_patience_diff_a_brief_summary/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21iwup/programming_laws_and_reality_do_we_know_what_we/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21jron/switching_web_programming_paradigms_with_vertx/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21jpf5/show_reddit_my_own_little_reddit_clone_in_c_and/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21iza1/spatial_data_structures_for_better_map/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21l81x/perl_encryption_primer_hashes/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21l2ya/udi_dahan_looselycoupled_orchestration_with/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21lx00/cube_drone_consistent_hashing/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21lxd9/what_does_writing_directly_to_video_memory_really/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21n1zs/why_enterprise_java_beans/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21mx0b/marching_squares_for_procedural_tile_placement/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21mvuv/should_everybody_learn_to_code_computerphile/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o6xt/the_software_equality_logo/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o6bz/codeplay_introduction_to_sycl_abstraction_layer/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o6bb/bannalia_trivial_notes_on_themes_diverse/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o4et/artificial_intelligence_where_to_put_your_time/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21od4e/participate_in_10_hours_development_of_a_game/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21o21d/introduction_to_artificial_neural_networks_part_2/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21nxpv/working_without_fear_on_test_driven_code/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ow20/introducing_rwolfram_a_subreddit_dedicated_to_the/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ooex/wic_file_open_dialog_using_ifileopendialog/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21nwak/html5_and_javascript_game_engine_libraries/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21quwy/tools_for_building_a_better_software_development/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21rn0p/bringing_simd_to_javascript/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21rfyf/class_hierarchies_dont_do_that/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21r3tc/lawsuit_waze_owes_opensource_programmers_150/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21qvp8/write_your_own_ai_for_2048/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21s7tn/the_strangeness_of_scale_at_twitter/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21smyy/crittercism_provides_insight_into_why_your_app/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21skaq/scrubbed_digitalocean_droplets_still_recoverable/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21shnk/convert_your_generators_into_coroutines_with_a/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21se3g/how_do_i_convert_a_batch_file_into_a_powershell/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ttxs/turings_sunflower/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21tszv/increasing_performance_with_static_polymorphism/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21tqge/summary_of_the_actor_model/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21tnkc/writing_micro_compiler_in_ocaml/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21ubo9/api_driven_development/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/21uap9/programming_on_mobile_devices/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/23zlqt/everything_in_javascript_is_a_value/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/23zhe4/devs_and_depression_by_greg_baugues/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/2417sh/how_to_upload_a_file_using_aspnet_mvc_and_ajax/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/2410b0/hypermedia_as_the_engine_of_application_state/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/240wbx/lazarus_free_pascal_ide_122_is_released_and_built/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/240tkz/https_share_python_script_that_allows_you_to/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/240r8r/teasafe_a_userspace_encrypted_filesystem_cc/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/241fmb/dont_feel_guilty_about_not_contributing_to_open/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/241jp9/spotify_engineering_culture_part_1/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/241rx7/why_do_software_projects_fail/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/241iav/accessing_standard_c_types_in_haskell/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/241cnt/doing_ab_testing_with_apache_httpd/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/240n7q/rust_by_example/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/240k9o/c_tutorials/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/242fp0/bramcohen_great_programmers_2004/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/242dvm/xpost_rarduino_understand_arduino_developement/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/242d9k/javascript_promises_there_and_back_again/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/242byq/http2_explained/
http://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/243tlz/pdf_the_tex_tuneup_of_2014_donald_knuth/