forked from gjord/gwern.net
-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
DNM survival.page
573 lines (510 loc) · 79.6 KB
/
DNM survival.page
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
501
502
503
504
505
506
507
508
509
510
511
512
513
514
515
516
517
518
519
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538
539
540
541
542
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554
555
556
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573
---
title: Darknet Market mortality risks
description: Survival analysis of lifespans, deaths, and predictive factors of Tor-Bitcoin darknet markets
created: 30 Oct 2013
tags: statistics, predictions, Bitcoin, Silk Road
status: in progress
confidence: possible
importance: 7
...
> I compile a dataset of 87 public English-language darknet markets (DNMs) 2011-2015 in the vein of the famous [Silk Road](Silk Road), recording their openings/closing and relevant characteristics. A survival analysis indicates the markets follow a Type TODO lifespan, with a median life of TODO months. Risk factors include TODO. With the best model, I generate estimates for the currently-operating markets.
I am interested in websites selling drugs over Tor or i2p, using cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin/Litecoin/Dogecoin, allowing multiple sellers other than the site operators, and providing some sort of escrow functionality. This excludes clearnet sites like Topix, single-vendor shops like Modern Culture or Bungee54, carding shops like Tor Carders Market, hosting services like Cryuserv or Bad Wolf, DNM-focused forums like The Hub, and forums for buyers & sellers to deal directly with each other like The Majestic Garden.
Foreign language markets are excluded because I cannot navigate them[^forex]; DrugMarket, Bigshop & a few others are excluded because they reportedly have always been a scam (similarly for most sites listed on the notoriously wrong Hidden Wiki); the Majestic Garden & Underground Market Board 3.0 are excluded because they are forums & do not do escrow for their users; Grand Trunk never left beta & had actual sales.
[^forex]: There are a fair number. An incomplete list as of mid-2014:
- Finnish: Silkkitie: `http://silkkitiehdg5mug.onion`
- French: French Dark Place 2.0: `http://ruzh5shkcme2tpfk.onion`
- Polish: Torepublic Market: `http://nco5ranerted3nkt.onion/forum/market.php`; Forum: `http://nco5ranerted3nkt.onion/forum/`
- Russian: Ramp: `http://ramp2bombkadwvgz.onion`
- Russian: Hydra Market: `http://hydraruehsdjjfud.onion/`
- Italian: `http://babylonxjrtdyomy.onion` (Babylon was raided in [late July 2015](http://www.pcworld.com/article/2955572/italian-police-shutter-dark-web-marketplace.html "Italian police shutter Dark Web marketplace"))
- Swedish: `flugsvamp`: `http://yakwbcn5ou2wkzfx.onion`
- Magic Shop
# Data
Variables:
- start/end dates are, when possible, the date of the first & last known sales/withdrawals; otherwise they are rounded to my first/last visit to them; or to the start/end of the month they appeared/disappeared
- closure: whether the shut down was due to law enforcement, precipitated by a hack or de-anonymization, a scam/theft by operators, or voluntary (without known losses to users)
- arrested: whether the principal operator/owner/maintainer of the marketplace was arrested for running it (this excludes hired staff)
- multisig: whether 2-of-3 escrow supported; 2-of-2 and other 'lite' versions are not considered multisig because they still allow for thefts
- i2p: whether i2p is used in addition/instead of Tor
- hacks: number of publicly known hacks resulting in leaks of user information, loss of funds, etc
- doxed: whether a plausible candidate for site operators has been made publicly known by law enforcement or other people
- codebase: the origin of the source code for a site where anything is publicly known; 'custom' simply means the site operators seem to have written it themselves
- coin: principal cryptocurrency of marketplace; if multiple coins are accepted, I list the most prominent altcoin
- guns: whether firearms were sold, specified in rules/policies as allowed to be sold, or rules/policies specified there were no bans on item categories
- fraud: whether carding items like credit card dumps were sold etc (this does not include fake IDs or informational guides on how to commit fraud; the former have uses besides carding, and the latter are often outdated or just scams)
<!-- - RoI: the 30-day return-on-investment of Bitcoin as decimal; extracted from Eli Dourado's [btcvol.info](http://btcvol.info/)'s [historical CSV](http://btcvol.info/csv); it is based on the [Coindesk index](http://www.coindesk.com/price/?bpi=bpi). For exact computation, see the appendix.
- σ/[volatility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_%28finance%29): the 30-day volatility of Bitcoin prices on the day a marketplace is considered dead (decimal) -->
## Table
A table of relevant markets (updated 7 April 2017):
Market Start End Alive Closure Arrested URL Multisig I2P Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin Codebase Guns Fraud Hacks Doxed Notes
---------------------- ---------- --------- ----- --------- -------- ------------------------ -------- ----- ------- -------- -------- -------- ---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- -------------
Silk Road 1 2011-01-31 2013-10-02 FALSE raided TRUE `silkroadvb5piz3r.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 2 TRUE SR1 temporarily sold guns as part of "the Armory" but only for a brief time as sales were poor.
BlackMarket Reloaded 2011-06-30 2013-12-02 FALSE hacked FALSE `r6rcmz6lga4i5vb4.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom TRUE TRUE 1 FALSE backopy stopped buying on 2 Dec aggravated in part by a big theft, fully shutdown by 23 December. May reopen. BMR permitted gun sales, and also seems to have permitted credit card information sales, judging by angry feedback.
Atlantis 2013-03-26 2013-09-20 FALSE scam FALSE `atlantisrky4es5q.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE Atlantis's shutdown seems, judging by comments [on](http://www.reddit.com/r/atlantis/comments/1n5a2q/the_fall_of_atlantis_a_moderator_tells/) [Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/atlantis/comments/1ms7f9/alert_atlantis_marketplace_closing_down/) [pages](http://www.reddit.com/r/atlantis/comments/1n3qc7/atlantis_is_it_site_down_for_good/) & [All Things Vice](http://allthingsvice.com/2013/09/26/the-fall-of-atlantis-a-moderator-tells/) to have initially allowed withdrawals, but disabled it after a few days and then stole the remaining deposits+escrow+vendor-bonds.
Sheep Marketplace 2013-02-28 2013-11-29 FALSE scam TRUE `sheep5u64fi457aw.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Nette FALSE TRUE 1 TRUE withdrawals were halted before 29 Nov, but deposits & sales were ongoing. I choose 29 Nov as the day where the Sheep scam became irrefutable. Strictly speaking, an operator has not been arrested as of 2015-03-27, but the suspected operator is in legal trouble over money-laundering of large Bitcoin-related sums.
Deepbay 2013-06-30 2013-11-04 FALSE scam FALSE `deepbay4xr3sw2va.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [Disappeared with funds](http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qaewa/deepbay_marketplace_owner_steals_sites_bitcoins/); based on a [screenshot of categories](http://img.wonderhowto.com/img/91/55/63516483119507/0/with-silk-road-bust-online-black-market-already-has-new-home.w654.jpg), seems to have been almost exclusively drugs.
Budster 2013-10-10 2013-10-20 FALSE scam FALSE `budsterga5hcdxjn.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE WordPress FALSE FALSE 1 TRUE http://www.reddit.com/r/Budster/comments/1ove9w/has_anyone_made_a_purchase_yet/ccw8srh http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xyixa/psa_cyruserv_is_down_for_good_budster_taf_hosting/ Budster did not seem to use genuine multisig and this enabled the scam: http://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1opmha/budster_the_worlds_first_p2p_marketplace/
Project Black Flag 2013-10-14 2013-10-28 FALSE scam FALSE `ajd4yqq7ngzmqo3p.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE TRUE 1 FALSE http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1peguv/pbf_rip/ ; forums: `blackiiw5nozs6i5.onion`; policies stated on forums ("Prohibited: Weapons, counterfeit money, stolen goods, child pornography, posting other users information, attempt to cause harm, spamming.")
TorMarket 2013-11-07 2013-12-22 FALSE scam FALSE `tormarkozaegyvco.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown FALSE TRUE 1 FALSE Part of the TorMarket user list was leaked [by DPR2 on SR2F](/docs/sr/2013-12-13-sr1f-tormarketdump.mht); TM also [admitted other security issues](/docs/sr/2013-12-13-tormarketforums-ddoshack.mht), but further rumors that TorMarket's shut down was precipitated by a hack by "Profesorhouse" have not been substantiated. TM may have used Bitwasp, but it didn't seem to [have Bitwasp error pages](http://bit-wasp.org/index.php/topic,130.0.html) and doesn't really look like the usual Bitwasp DNM.
FloMarket 2013-12-01 2014-01-01 FALSE hacked FALSE `fmkt3wixc772jxyj.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp 2 FALSE Apparently [hacked 20 December 2013](http://silkroad5v7dywlc.onion/index.php?topic=10489.msg191044#msg191044) (previously [noted to be hackable](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1tm4rf/be_careful_with_flomarket_and_bluesky/)); withdrawals began failing [on 1 January 2014](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/01/02/warning-reports-of-flomarket-possible-scam-hack/) & FloMarket announced a [*second*](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1ujjsw/flo_is_down_for_good_another_scam_in_the_books/) hack on 6 January 2014; for the operator's explanation, see [his interview](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/01/09/flomarket-admin-im-not-a-scammer-an-exculsive-interview/) <!-- ~5btc hack -->
Tortuga 2013-12-16 2014-01-05 FALSE voluntary FALSE `tortugauwngwecwd.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Seagull 0 FALSE Advertised in the [SR2F](http://silkroad5v7dywlc.onion/index.php?topic=9940.msg179819#msg179819) on 19 Dec 2013; advertised on the [BMR forums](/docs/sr/2013-12-16-bmr-tortugannouncement.mht) on 16 Dec. Up on 1 January 2014, down on 9 January 2014 & afterwards. [No news](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1vhygj/tortuga_gone/) about reasons for its closure. No official rules on listings were posted before it disappeared, probably because it was unpopular enough that content was not an issue.
BlackBox Market 2013-11-12 2014-02-01 FALSE voluntary FALSE `77yqlxe7pnxhnxvi.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Interesting site, but not sure it should be listed here. Start date based on [Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/onions/comments/1qhj76/the_blackbox_market_legal_private_encrypted/). Site stopped responding 1 February 2014. On-site escrow did not use multisig ("We do not make use of the Escrow services provided by Bitcoin itself as this associates buyers and sellers.") Policies based on the fact that BBM could not know what was being sold on it and so _de facto_ permitted both categories.
GreyRoad 2014-01-04 2014-02-01 FALSE voluntary FALSE `greyroaderw4qymd.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Went public [4 January 2013](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1ue777/ask_lord_voldemort_anything/) ([2](http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1ue499/ask_lord_voldemort_anything/)), operator claims to have been selling for a while but refuses to provide any specifics & very few sellers on market so opening date is used; forums: `grforums5qwzbhkl.onion`. URL stopped working 1 February 2014
Cantina 2014-01-20 2014-02-07 FALSE hacked FALSE `vsudl2g3em6qhcw4.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Nette TRUE TRUE 3 TRUE Cantina [spammed vendors on SR2F](http://silkroad5v7dywlc.onion/index.php?topic=18574.0) on 20 Jan 2014; earliest known mention of the market. It was [repeatedly hacked & doxed](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1whket/cantina_market_mega_thread_up_vote_for_visibility/). Cantina had no stated policies, but it did have a category for guns and given the 'Data' categories & general lack of ethics & greed, highly likely would have permitted carding had it not died so ignominiously.
Breaking Bad 2014-02-01 2014-02-06 FALSE voluntary FALSE `breakingnartglxd.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1wqhcm/breaking_bad/); site went down 6 February, [owner explained](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1wqhcm/breaking_bad/cfbmzy7) shutdown due to "Lack of interest from vendors, constant hate mail, downvotes and claims on security vulnerabilities"
Black Goblin Market 2014-02-03 2014-02-04 FALSE hacked FALSE `ua4aptglh45m5p6b.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Drupal TRUE TRUE 0 TRUE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1wwjg3/black_goblin_market_is_now_open/); I [de-anonymized the site](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xeeni/black_goblin_obituary/), so it shut down. The "Black Goblin Rules" page does not mention any ban of guns or carding.
Cannabis Road 2014-02-03 2014-02-07 FALSE hacked FALSE `ji4wrifhsnawaw7t.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 1 TRUE Announced on The Hub; [thoroughly hacked & de-anonymized](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xe943/cannabisroad_obituary/)
Utopia 2014-02-03 2014-02-11 FALSE raided TRUE `ggvow6fj3sehlm45.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE CakePHP TRUE TRUE 0 TRUE forums: `ysas7uv4drg7rlwv.onion`; forms opened in early January, site opened to ex-BMR sellers late January, general buyers only allowed in February. [Dutch seizure notice posted ~7:30AM EST](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xltp2/utopia_seized_by_police/), followed by [5](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-26158012 "Five arrested in Utopia dark net marketplace crackdown") [arrests](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/02/12/the-utopia-bust-details-prosecution-announcement/ "The Utopia Bust Details - Prosecution Announcement") in Netherlands & [Germany](http://www.bka.de/nn_233148/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/Presse2014/140213__ErmittlungserfolgCyberKriminelle.html "Ermittlungserfolg gegen Cyber-Kriminelle")
Black Services Market 2013-12-02 2014-02-01 FALSE scam FALSE `thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE OSclass TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Start date based on oldest listing when I checked on 26 December 2013; last admin forum post 18 Jan & PMs to him disabled, [reports](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xbex3/bsm_black_services_market_is_a_scam/) of escrow problems in late Jan/early Feb, many complaints on forums; site went down 14 February 2014
Red Sun Marketplace 2014-03-20 2014-03-23 FALSE hacked FALSE `redsun4lvjrxwwuy.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp FALSE TRUE 1 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/20vrlv/red_sun_marketplace_reloaded/); hacked ([SQli etc](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/214y14/i_made_it_all_pretty_and_stuff/cg9sh7z)); forum: `forumsyccj7ekvvv.onion`. Surviving materials don't say whether guns were permitted, but given the operator's [interest in recruiting fake ID vendors](http://www.reddit.com/r/fakeid/comments/20vusk/looking_for_id_card_vendors/) it seems more likely than not that carding sales would have been allowed.
BuyItNow 2013-04-30 2014-02-17 FALSE voluntary FALSE `buyitnowquyft7dx.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE WordPress TRUE FALSE 0 FALSE Site did not respond on 17 February 2014 or afterwards; no reports on shutdown reason or whether it was a scam. Policies not specified, but many listings for guns, and none of any kind related to carding.
White Rabbit 2013-12-23 2014-02-01 FALSE scam FALSE `rabbittorvr74veg.onion` FALSE TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE unknown TRUE TRUE 0 TRUE Start date based on [Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/themarketplace/comments/1to7sk/a_new_alternative_themarketplace/) [posts](http://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1to8d7/a_new_alternative_sr/). Formerly named "Rabbit's Marketplace". Unable to find reports of successful sales on The Hub or Reddit, and WR withdrawal has been broken at least since 21 February 2014; [no one has claimed withdrawals](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1ylbt7/why_is_whiterabbit_in_side_bar/) recently. Dead date is based on the February news notice "There are problems with payment gateway". Forum states only CP is banned ("Items which are not allowed: child porn (and other sick stuff).") i2p: `wrmarket.i2p`. IP was found to [be leaking](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=2261.msg17459).
FreeBay 2013-12-02 2014-02-28 FALSE voluntary FALSE `freebay3yxuebsog.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE FALSE FALSE unknown FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE URL is also apparently `litebay7vp5pm77f.onion` (FreeBay took Bitcoin, LiteBay took Litecoin); open date is guess based on [Reddit post](http://www.reddit.com/r/TOR/comments/1s0wgc/freebay_ebay_of_drugs/); site was not up on 28 February 2014 when I checked. Policies not specified, but many carding & no gun listings.
drugslist 2014-01-08 2014-02-28 FALSE scam FALSE `drugslisvdknitqd.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 1 FALSE Withdrawals began failing & [admin ceased responding](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/20duht/drugslist_dogeroad_kia_admins_mia/) in February 2014; date closure to the forum admin account's last login.
Doge Road 2014-01-18 2014-03-13 FALSE scam FALSE `dogeroadiqt6olb6.onion` FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE Bitwasp FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1vjxap/xpost_rdogecoin_announcement_the_doge_road_is_now/); forums: `dogeroadqmu2yzcg.onion`. Went down [sometime in March 2014](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/20duht/drugslist_dogeroad_kia_admins_mia/), may have gone bad in late February.
TorEscrow 2014-02-02 2014-04-19 FALSE scam FALSE `torescrow7upglhe.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE Initially just an escrow, but [TE expanded](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1wt3bj/te_expands_and_becomes_a_market/) into a market. Forums: `4rtvonaubslk7vvk.onion`. TE seems to have permitted carding: "We do not allow the sale of weapons, pornography, ebooks, pirated software or hits."
Armory Vendor Market 2014-02-06 2014-04-07 FALSE scam FALSE `armoryx7kvdq3jds.onion` FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE Quick.Cart TRUE FALSE 1 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1x855s/the_armory_vendor_market_is_now_open/); their Cryuserv hosting, according to the hacker, dated back to 23 May 2013 but it's unclear when they had their first sale. It announced use of [Darkcoin in March 2014](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1zz4h0/the_armory_new_currency_accepted_darkcoin/).
Darknet Nation 2014-02-19 2014-03-01 FALSE hacked FALSE `26a2ueoc3xxrrgs4.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Joomla TRUE TRUE 0 TRUE [Announced on Reddit](https://pay.reddit.com/r/onions/comments/1yev3e/introducing_darknet_nation/); [Q&A](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/02/21/darknet-nation-darknetmarket-social-network/). The site leaked its IP address. Down 3 April 2014; best guess, shut down sometime in March (the administrator's last post on The Hub was [1 March 2014](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?action=profile;area=showposts;u=1663).)
Sanitarium Market 2014-02-20 2014-03-28 FALSE voluntary FALSE `sanitarium-market.i2p` FALSE TRUE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1yfvkl/sanitariummarket_i2p/); long address: `dhd5okd2imkskbhsrlbs5c4nx3cdtmwpplvcei6o3l2sc35kt4ma.b32.i2p`; Tor mirror: `nyu7nlbj33ym2va3.onion`. Unreachable by DeepDotWeb 28 March 2014, and [last subreddit activity](http://www.reddit.com/r/sanitariummarket/new/) was 19 March 2014. The operator claimed on [24 February 2014](http://www.reddit.com/r/sanitariummarket/comments/1yt3zm/multisig_transactions/) to have integrated multisig but I can't find any reports of use of it. No surviving info indicates whether weapons or carding were allowed.
Hansa 2014-03-09 2014-03-20 FALSE voluntary FALSE `hansann7wim5ier2.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp TRUE TRUE 0 TRUE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1zzwrd/hansa_new_tor_marketplace_platform_pgp_2factor/) & [de-anonymized](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/207mk9/hansamarkets_ip_address/); closure date based on last transaction [by their IP](http://blockchain.info/ip-address/46.4.128.75). They planned to implement multisig but seem to have shut down before it went live. Bitwasp classification based on [two](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/207mk9/hansamarkets_ip_address/cg18l3j) [comments](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/201z39/trade_with_0_fee_on_hansa_till_the_end_of_the_week/cfz78jw) & [screenshot of login page](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/03/12/another-market-doxxed-hansamarket/).
EXXTACY 2014-03-23 2014-03-24 FALSE hacked FALSE `j3gwwsnswrg7dtf4.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Drupal 0 TRUE [Announced & de-anonymized on Reddit](http://reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/215161/new_market_exxtacy/). No information about policies is available, although since it seems to've been run by Sanitarium, it likely had whatever they did. Died before any rules announced or mirrors made.
Mr Nice Guy 2014-03-29 2014-04-20 FALSE voluntary FALSE `niceguymn4plorwb.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp FALSE FALSE 0 TRUE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/21op6t/we_are_pleased_to_announce_our_new_market/); forum: `ngforumjj4dkis7w.onion`. [IP was leaking](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/21op6t/we_are_pleased_to_announce_our_new_market/cgfc58w).
TorBay 2013-12-18 2014-04-20 FALSE voluntary FALSE `tyedahhf56xli7xp.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE hyops FALSE TRUE 0 TRUE Start date based on [Reddit announcement](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1t680v/presenting_new_market_torbay/); ceased responding in April 2014, after listings had fallen to near-zero.
DarkBay 2014-01-30 2014-05-01 FALSE voluntary FALSE `darkbay4rwgvdkqn.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown FALSE TRUE 0 TRUE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1wj4r1/ultravioletcity_market_no_site_wallets_free/); forums: `7y26aczl3wdyujkc.onion`; formerly, UltraVioletCity/`ultracityi2gdwhq.onion`. "There is very little restriction here, we only ask that you do not sell firearms (rifles, pistols, automatic weapons etc) or child pornography (photographs, videos etc)." [Merged with Andromeda?](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/24fsrs/darkbay_closing_sent_everyone_to_andromeda/ch6yk61)
Pigeon Market 2014-04-14 2014-05-07 FALSE voluntary FALSE `pigeonkcmw5h44lq.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Unknown what happened to funds.
Free Market 2015-01-14 2015-02-26 FALSE voluntary FALSE `tfmarket6iaddx45.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2sfayc/announcement_the_free_market_is_now_accepting/)
Tortuga 2 2014-04-23 2014-06-17 FALSE voluntary FALSE `l6hkncqo46wgzx7y.onion` TRUE TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE Drupal FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/23sxwa/new_market_tortuga/); i2p: `wtat6dgz57j5xllu2j7htb7aydq5rgls6edg7e6lf2tumqn5ej3a.b32.i2p`/`tortuga-marketplace.i2p`; [multisig](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/24wi18/still_new_market_tortuga_now_offers_multisig/); ; unknown what happened to funds.
Deepzon 2014-05-14 2014-07-13 FALSE voluntary FALSE `deepzondhyl3yaro.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Support's response: "Guns/Weapons are allowed, we thought that would be clear, as we are having the category 'Weapons' listed. CC-Dumps are also allowed."' ; unknown what happened to funds.
Silk Street 2014-04-08 2014-08-04 FALSE scam FALSE `silkr2xyqsu73qhh.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [Announced on The Hub](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=2678.0); no reports of withdrawals, so marked false. No explicit policies, but UI shows many empty categories but no empty categories for fraud or gun items, so I presume those were not permitted.
Underground Market 2014-04-09 2014-08-26 FALSE voluntary FALSE `unground6baopdio.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/22lyzs/new_marketplace_announce_underground_marketplace/); forums: `vxcwhb4lzqltfauq.onion`. Shut down citing ["not enough customers"](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2er837/underground_market_shuts_down/).
Cannabis Road 2 2014-03-28 2014-08-25 FALSE hacked FALSE `cannabiskofvl7pa.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 1 FALSE Forum: `forumzxmoorof4ja.onion`; forum opened 26 February 2014, but site was not operational. The soft-launch/[raffle announced 28 March 2014](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/21ko17/introducing_cannabis_road_marketplace_420_raffle/) seems a good start date. [Was hacked & lost >฿200](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2eisa0/cannabis_road_shuts_downclaims_to_have_been_robbed/) from escrow (while multisig was available, very few buyers used it). <!-- Doxed? http://www.reddit.com/message/messages/286p7u operator seems to laugh it off and fairly tenuous -->
Pandora 2013-10-21 2014-08-19 FALSE scam FALSE `pandorajodqp5zrr.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE TRUE 2 FALSE See ["Forbidden Items on PANDORA"](http://bl3j73taluhwidx5.onion/index.php?topic=9.msg19#msg19). Pandora has had 2 hacks: the first was a [rogue moderator](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/01/27/pandora-market-warning-vendor-accounts-hacked-possible-site-hack/) using an admin account, and the second was a [loss of half the centralized escrow](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/03/20/pandora-hacked-losing-50-btc/) (repaid by levying extraordinary transaction fees). The operator eventually locked out all seller accounts around 19/20 August 2014 (definitely by 1 September) and disabled withdrawals & the site forums, but continued accepting deposits from buyers; he may also have captured login credentials and robbed accounts on other marketplaces according to several sellers. Targeted in Operation Onymous but had already turned scammer.
Pirate Market 2013-11-29 2014-08-15 FALSE scam FALSE `yjhzeedl5osagmmr.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Start date based on Reddit. Originally RoadSilk; [multisig](http://darkwebnews.com/news/interview-tone24-moderator-pirate-market/). Site reportedly [began blocking withdrawals](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=4768) ~15 August 2014 while still accepting deposits, with the Pirate Market forum being shut down several days later.
Freedom Market 2014-09-16 2014-09-25 FALSE voluntary FALSE `freedom3qg7hmtxn.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2gipvp/freedom_freedom_market_new/); went down without notice sometime before 25 September 2014. Site rules: "If the item doesn't hurt others, you can sell it."; the categories included "Forgeries" but nothing else, so carding probably counted as 'hurting others'.
1776 2014-04-19 2014-10-02 FALSE voluntary FALSE `n6tzonxy7sod7eqt.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE ASP.NET FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [Announced by DeepDotWeb](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/04/19/1776-market-automated-multi-signature-escrow/) & [on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/23gb2s/1776_market_automated_multisignature_escrow/). Not Bitwasp, given [the traceback on error pages](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=2889.msg22662#msg22662). No policy documentation. Disappeared starting 03 October 2014. <!-- Defaced 5 June 2014 http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/27cd7p/1776_marketplace_is_now_called_obamahomosexual/ ??? may've been deliberate -->
Silk Road 2 2013-11-06 2014-11-05 FALSE raided TRUE `silkroad6ownowfk.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 2 TRUE Forum moderator Cirrus advises considering SR2 compromised (22 December 2013, ironic inasmuch as Cirrus was the LE undercover agent who undid SR2 and helped with SR1); new operators Defcon/Hux/etc deny it. Defcon announced the cold wallet had been lost to DPR2, but then that it had been restored. SR2 experienced repeated account balance problems, failed to ever implement autofinalize or dispute resolution (forcing accumulation of orders' balances), and [announced 13 February 2014](http://silkroad5v7dywlc.onion/index.php?topic=25091.0;all) that all deposits & escrow had been stolen, followed by another hack in September 2014. Use of SR was not advised. Was raided by Operation Onymous & Defcon arrested.
Hydra 2014-03-27 2014-11-05 FALSE raided TRUE `hydrampvvnunildl.onion` TRUE FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [Announced on The Hub](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=2421.0); forum: `hydrafmchvpq5yc6.onion`. [Operator arrested](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/11/11/watch-alleged-hydra-market-admin-getting-busted-in-budapest/) in Hungary as part of Operation Onymous.
Cloud-Nine 2014-02-11 2014-11-05 FALSE raided FALSE `xvqrvtnn4pbcnxwt.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Cloud-9 FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xkx7b/ann_cloudnine_marketplace_on_tor/); [on banned items](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xkx7b/ann_cloudnine_marketplace_on_tor/ch2zcwc). Raided in Operation Onymous.
Blue Sky 2013-12-03 2014-11-05 FALSE raided FALSE `blueskyplzv4fsti.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE Or is the opening [12 December 2013](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1ss07e/bought_from_a_vendor_on_bluesky_appears_to_be_the/)? Raided in Operation Onymous.
TorBazaar 2014-01-26 2014-11-05 FALSE raided FALSE `bazaarlv2a7i3uyn.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [Announced on The Hub](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=237.0); original centralized escrow site: `3p42y56a76g6okuv.onion`; forums: `22iwhc2luicynjqy.onion`
Topix 2 2014-03-25 2014-11-05 FALSE voluntary FALSE `topixslhezyytrvm.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE Started January 2014; opened to public [28 September 2014](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2hphyx/topix_2_has_opened_doors_to_all_users_possibly/), previously was invite-only; start date based on first sale listed in recent-feedback page; apparently drug-only based on the listings. Shut down without notice after [Operation Onymous](!Wikipedia).
Alpaca Marketplace 2014-04-20 2014-11-05 FALSE scam FALSE `alpaca727o3c75xx.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown TRUE FALSE 1 FALSE [Announced on The Hub](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=1428.0;all); policies based on [Secret Laboratory writeup](http://secretlaboratory.org/?p=10064 "*NEW* Alpaca Marketplace: Another new Dark Net Market ... but at least it has multi-signature escrow.") Hacked [mid-May 2014](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/25v64h/alpaca_we_are_reopened/). [Alpaca allows](http://alpaca727o3c75xx.onion/pages/ethics/) weapons (but not poisons/WMDs/hitmen) and appears to ban carding: "We do not allow items that are advertised as stolen." Shut down after Operation Onymous ([seizure notice](http://www.leaksource.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/operation-onymous-dark-markets-seizure-forfeiture-complaint.pdf)) without returning any funds.
Cannabis Road 3 2014-10-06 2014-11-05 FALSE scam FALSE `cannabis37oj24rd.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Alpaca FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE Forum: `forumz2gljo2vhzb.onion`. After CR2 was hacked, developer "Crypto" disappeared; the remaining staff set up a new marketplace hosted by Alpaca Marketplace. Went down with Alpaca after Operation Onymous
Andromeda 2014-04-05 2014-11-18 FALSE scam FALSE `andromedam363aux.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Formerly Silk Road 3/`silkroad3wqdnifp.onion`; site has no connection to SR1 or SR2. Forums: `dvzuhtlteonn6mwd.onion`. Andromeda attempted to mask its exit scam as an Operation Onymous but it wasn't announced as seized and the [broken withdrawals & failed mimicry](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2modbl/andromeda_seized_today/) show it's bogus.
The Marketplace 2013-11-28 2014-11-09 FALSE voluntary FALSE `themarketplace.i2p` TRUE TRUE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE Start date from personal communication; Tor Proxy: `43y5mwjvhxd6zf7v.onion`. The ToS ban CP, guns, and Bitcoin/dollar sales. [Site went down 9 November](https://www.reddit.com/r/themarketplace/comments/2lsbws/both_i2p_and_tor_gateways_are_down/), without any further notice. (The use of multisig means buyers & sellers can still complete the final transactions.)
Onionshop 2014-05-18 2014-09-17 FALSE hacked FALSE `onionshopkue7sxr.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE 1 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/25qr5q/grand_opening_onionshop_marketplace_sunday_2000/); hacked 17 September 2014 ([announcement](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=5252.msg41679#msg41679), [hacker](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2gyefs/onionshop_hacked_all_bitcoins_stolen_and_im_still/)) <!-- "What is forbidden to be sold on Onionshop? Assassinations or any other services which constitute doing harm to another - Weapons of mass destruction: chemical, biological, explosives, etc. - Poisons - Child Pornography - Live action snuff/hurt/murder audio/video/images" -->
TOM 2014-05-10 2014-12-18 FALSE scam FALSE `tom3j5jkjl7327oc.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE Forums: `tomf2fo56wthggwk.onion`. TOM disappeared without any announcements; [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/TomMarketplace/comments/2pyibn/what_happened_to_toms/) comments report deposits were not returned, so I mark TOM a scam.
Area51 2014-06-20 2015-01-24 FALSE scam FALSE `fiftyonecrklhzhe.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [Spammed on The Hub](http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=4034.msg32690#msg32690); implementation is PHP on Debian, admin states "area51 is complete selfcoded and we have nothing to do with bitwasp". Centralized escrow & no reports of deposits being returned.
Panacea 2014-10-27 2015-02-13 FALSE voluntary FALSE `panaceaz4give75l.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Cloud-9 FALSE FALSE 1 TRUE [Reddit ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2kevg6/panacea_flower_sanctuary_the_light_at_the_end_of/); forums: `flower777wpnxpkj.onion`; cannabis-only; admin "PyroWolf" was reportedly doxed by the cannabis seller EastCoastCollective ([likely](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2khn4h/ecc_eastcoastcollective_runs_cannabis_road_both/) the operator of CR2/CR3, and possibly CR1 as well), who he was a former customer of. Closure obscure - staff blames an AWOL developer and the multisig coins to be safe, but [a throwaway](https://www.reddit.com/user/panacea_DEATH_STAR) claims to've hacked it.
evolution 2014-01-14 2015-03-14 FALSE scam FALSE `k5zq47j6wd3wdvjq.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Laravel TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1vmufh/latest_news_from_tcf/) 20 Jan, but forums [claim first sale on 14 January](http://i25c62nvu4cgeqyz.onion/viewtopic.php?pid=121#p121); forums: `i25c62nvu4cgeqyz.onion`; new url: `nifgk5szbodg7qbo.onion`; claimed [multisig](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/24vio2/market_announcement_multisignature_escrow_has/) but on further investigation, seems to be [the weak kind](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/24vio2/z/chcx3t7). [PHP framework](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2ox10x/humorevo_exposed/). Site & forums went down 2015-03-18 but large withdrawals began failing ~2015-03-14, marking the start of the exit scam. Former employee claims [฿130k](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2015/03/18/interview-with-nswgreat-evolution-staff-member/ "Evolution Market Staff Member: 130,000BTC Were Stolen") lost.
Ironclad 2015-03-17 2015-03-25 FALSE scam FALSE `ironcladcoc3chq6.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2zdo8e/ironclad_new_market_opening/); forums: `forum.ironcladcoc3chq6.onion`. Disappeared without notice during the post-Evolution chaos & Tor DoS attacks in March 2015; as a centralized market, all escrow & deposits are presumed stolen.
Kiss 2015-02-19 2015-05-16 FALSE scam FALSE `kissmpg5zave56f4.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 1 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2vo5qi/kiss_marketplace/); forum: `6bssxspijk7n2ioh.onion`; [Kiss](https://i.imgur.com/jzZKreU.png) [moderator claims](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/37dcqp/the_details_of_what_happened_at_kiss/) hacked 2015-05-21 then operator decided to exit-scam. I date to 2015-05-16, however, as I was unable to log in starting then.
BlackBank Market 2014-02-05 2015-05-18 FALSE scam FALSE `wztyb7vlfcw6l4xd.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Active before its [Reddit announcement](http://www.reddit.com/r/BlackBank/comments/1x2pjp/blackbank_market_a_new_emerging_featurerich_and/) but no apparent sales. Forums: `kth2mwuwlkezwziy.onion`. Forbidden items are listed on the [wiki](http://kth2mwuwlkezwziy.onion/wiki/index.php/Forbidden_Goods). BB went down without notice ~18 May 2015, with no communications afterwards; complicating the usual exit-scam story is that none of the bitcoins appear to have moved in weeks and the admin, many months ago, had alluded to serious health issue. <!-- TODO -->
Tornado 2015-05-12 2015-05-20 FALSE FALSE `tornadoputkhrvfq.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [AN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DeepDotWeb/comments/35lzdr/tornado_market_soft_launch/)[N](http://thehub7gqe43miyc.onion/index.php?topic=8940.0); forums: `tortalkmcguzevvz.onion`; went down ~20 May without any public comments.
Havana/Absolem 2015-04-13 2015-05-22 FALSE hacked FALSE `havana3cofejesta.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [Opened initially invite-code-only](https://www.reddit.com/r/havanamarket/comments/32e7eb/beta_invite_codes/); forums: `forumz4usxavgyri.onion`; pentester whyusheep/hacksforcrack turned on Havana-Absolem, DoSing/hacking them; the admins gave up, talking about perhaps trying a private market instead.
Agape 2015-05-29 2015-06-04 FALSE voluntary FALSE `agape3brimud5fk6.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/37p09r/agape_market_tor_marketplace_that_cares_about/). Voluntarily shut down due to [lack of interest and"backlash"](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/38gxct/agape_market_is_closing_its_doors_source_code/).
Zanzibar Spice 2015-05-07 2015-06-14 FALSE voluntary FALSE `mithrakushhvfyto.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/354wh5/marketplace_announcement_zanzibar_spice_market_is/); server began throwing errors 2015-06-14 with no market communication.
Dream Market 2013-11-15 TRUE FALSE `ltxocqh4nvwkofil.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE unknown FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE Site claims to've opened 15 November 2013; first mention of it I found was on 7 January 2014. Later moved to `lchudifyeqm4ldjj.onion/`
Agora 2013-12-03 2015-09-06 FALSE voluntary FALSE `agorahooawayyfoe.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Forums: `lacbzxobeprssrfx.onion`. Agora banned guns [15 July 2015](https://www.deepdotweb.com/2015/07/07/agora-market-to-stop-listing-lethal-weapons/) after ~20 gun busts became known; nevertheless, for most of its lifespan it allowed guns. Agora [announced 25 August 2015](https://www.reddit.com/r/AgMarketplace/comments/3idznd/agora_to_pause_operations/) that it would be going offline indefinitely to deal with Tor deanonymization attacks; withdrawals were enabled and [DNstats](https://dnstats.net/market/Agora) indicates the site went offline around 6 September 2015.
Outlaw Market 2013-12-29 TRUE FALSE `drugs26ucskmvcef.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom TRUE FALSE 2 FALSE Open date based on the date of the ["Welcome" post on the OM forum](http://hmxutiksabsj4ozi.onion/index.php?topic=2.msg0); apparently formerly "Drugs'n'Bets". Site was hacked & user PMs released in 2013; site [shut down 31 July 2014](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/08/01/outlaw-market-down-possibily-compromised/) after an attack blame on former admins when "A SESSION-hack was performed and a couple of datasets manipulated but not much damage created". They claim in [an interview](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2014/01/23/interview-with-outlaw-market-admin/) it's custom software; this is confirmed by a [leak of PHP source which does not call any frameworks/CRMs](/docs/sr/2015-01-15-outlawmarket-index.php). Policies based on no apparent hits among mirrors.
Middle Earth Marketplace 2014-06-22 2015-11-04 FALSE scam FALSE `mango7u3rivtwxy7.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Django FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/28srwh/middle_earth_marketplace_new/). Exit-scammed sometime around October-November 2015; some issues with withdrawals reported in late October, then the site went down for ['maintenance' around 4 November 2015](https://www.reddit.com/r/MEMarketplace/comments/3rivwu/whats_up_with_me/), and coins were definitely being moved by the admins by 6 November 2015 .
Diabolus/SR3 2014-10-13 2017-02-12 FALSE FALSE `qxvfcavhse45ckpw.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE TRUE custom FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE Cannabis-only. Unclear when it shut down so I assign it the same date as CM, which was operated by the same team.
Nucleus Marketplace 2014-10-24 2016-04-13 FALSE scam FALSE `nucleuspf3izq7o6.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE FALSE TRUE Laravel TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE <!-- Multisig planned but not available; TODO: update this? --> <!-- admin doxed by angry forum mod 2015-04-28? not sure... they did take down the forum for a while but didn't see any hard evidence in the one copy I looked at --> <!-- Laravel: see HTML source --> Went down [13 April 2016](https://dnstats.net/market/Nucleus+Market) according to DNstats & Reddit. Apparent non-movement of market coins has prompted speculation about arrests, but no busts has been announced as of 18 August 2016.
Abraxas 2014-12-13 2015-11-05 FALSE scam FALSE `abraxasdegupusel.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE TRUE Laravel FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE forums: `abraxasgacelesox.onion` <!-- de-anonymized? https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/3096bn/dont_use_abraxas_leaked_clearnet_ip/ --> Went down 5 November 2015 according to [DNstats](https://dnstats.net/market/Abraxas) and several months later [the wallet may've been drained](https://www.walletexplorer.com/wallet/AbraxasMarket).
AlphaBay 2014-12-22 TRUE FALSE `pwoah7foa6au2pul.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2q2foj/new_darknet_market_alphabay_market/) <!-- https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/982821/download -->
Silk Road Reloaded 2015-01-13 2016-02-27 FALSE FALSE `silkroadreloaded.i2p` FALSE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE custom FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE Full I2P address: `hyn3mwmyeovcn2paujxur2eury2ufqpoahvbbqshfoggljn25tra.b32.i2p`. I'm uncertain when it closed - last subreddit activity 27 Feb 2016 but may have still been alive as of May 2016 or later.
Tochka 2015-01-30 TRUE FALSE `tochka3evlj3sxdv.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE custom FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [Announced on Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2u8dm2/tochka_new_mobilefirst_anonymous_marketplace/); site rules ban "Counterfeit documents" which I interpret as banning carding in general.
Crypto Market 2015-02-14 2017-02-12 FALSE scam FALSE `cryptomktgxdn2zd.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2vvhtc/crypto_market/); CM is run on / by Diabolus and not entirely separate. According to DNstats.net, Crypto Market was last observed up on 12 February 2017, but there are complaints in [January 2017 on Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/5o9xky/cryptomarket_sr3/) so I'm not sure when it really went down. In any case, the escrow funds apparently were not returned.
Mr Nice Guy 2 2015-02-21 2015-10-14 FALSE scam FALSE `niceguyfa3xkuuoq.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 0 TRUE [Operator claims doxing was just of "a volunteer"](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/2ztsg9/opseccomputer_psa_the_owner_of_mr_nice_guy_market/). Went down October 14, 2015 according to [DNstats](https://dnstats.net/market/Mr+Nice+Guy).
TheRealDeal 2015-04-09 2016-10-22 FALSE FALSE `trdealmgn4uvm42g.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [Interview](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2015/04/08/therealdeal-dark-net-market-for-code-0days-exploits/), [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/322hro/introduction_therealdeal_code_mostly_market/); forums: `forum5cijl4suew6.onion`. Multiple staffers were arrested & the site went down for a while but came back up, leading to questions about whether it had been subverted. Last observed by DNstats.net on 22 October 2016. Unclear why it shut down: LE, exit scam, or otherwise? Or to what extent its multisig worked.
Oxygen 2015-04-16 2015-08-27 FALSE scam FALSE `o2oxycuvnwxhv73e.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE TRUE 1 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/33xfaj/new_market_called_oxygen/). Was hacked around January 2015 by a vendor [exploiting an early finalization bug to scam customers](http://pirate.london/2016/05/real-fake-money-real-insecure-markets/ "Real fake money, real insecure markets"). Went down 27 August 2015 according to [DNstats](https://dnstats.net/market/Oxygen).
East India Company 2015-04-28 2016-01-01 FALSE scam FALSE `g4c35ipwiutqccly.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom FALSE FALSE 1 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/34538b/new_european_only_market_east_india_company_has/); EU-only. Claims to've lost [฿30 to a hacker in early August 2015](https://www.deepdotweb.com/2015/08/09/east-india-market-hacked-30-btc-gone/). EIC went down ~1-2 January 2016 for a week or so, then a maintenance message, then came back up bu withdrawals failed; finally, went down for good 1 February 2016 according to [DNstats](https://dnstats.net/market/East+India+Company).
Haven 2015-05-05 2015-06-06 FALSE scam FALSE `havenpghmfqhivfn.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE custom TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/34yxfi/vendormarketinquiry_haven_marketplace_now_online/) <!-- only explicitly bans CP in the vendor-signup agreement --> <!-- TODO: multisig support? --> Went down 6 June 2015 according to [DNstats](https://dnstats.net/market/Haven); not much discussion of its closure.
Anarchia 2015-05-07 2016-05-09 FALSE FALSE `tkmlejimlt72jnkm.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE Bitwasp TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/357d9f/anarchia_bitcoin_marketplace/). Still around 9 July 2015 judging from spam for it; may have gone down [9 May 2016](https://tarnkappe.info/crimenetwork-biz-offline-fuer-immer/) for unclear reasons. No discussion of its closure on Reddit, DDW, The Hub, or I can find in Google.
Darknet Heroes League 2015-05-27 TRUE FALSE `darkheroesq46awl.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE Not explicitly announced.
Poseidon 2015-06-02 2015-06-29 FALSE scam FALSE `poseidonzskufuwb.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE 0 TRUE [Server de-anonymized by TheRealDeal ~2 June 2015 & was in Latvia](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2015/06/02/poseidon-market-doxxed-hosting-location-revealed/). From the few mentions of it afterwards, Poseidon apparently disabled withdrawals and then disappeared within a few months.
Amazon Dark 2015-06-08 2015-10-25 FALSE scam FALSE `amazon435hm6h3ye.onion` TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE 0 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/392vkg/amazon_dark_new_market_announcement/). Around [22-25 October 2015](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/3q4xxu/anyone_have_problems_with_amazon_dark/), complaints began appearing about administrators not responding & withdrawals failing; former spokesperson says it was [an exit scam](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/3qtmpk/amazon_dark_warning/); went down 2015-10-28, according to [DNstats](https://dnstats.net/market/Amazon+Dark).
Simply Bear 2015-06-20 2015-10-21 FALSE scam FALSE `llog4svhkcb5txld.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE 0 FALSE [ANN](https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/3airvu/announcementnew_marketplace_simply/). Went down 21 October 2015 according to [DNstats](https://dnstats.net/market/Simply+Bear); no mentions of whether it might've shut down earlier anywhere else.
Horizon Market 2015-05-23 2015-07-08 FALSE scam FALSE `horizon77qneerav.onion` FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE TRUE TRUE 0 FALSE Was French-only until mid-June 2015; opening date based on earlier last-seen dates for the lowest-numbered vendors. Disappeared sometime before 8 July 2015, according to the [DDW changelog](https://www.deepdotweb.com/hidden-marketplace-list-changelog/).
<!-- Haven last mirror 2015-06-05; see also https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/36rept/haven_what_happened/ -->
<!-- AlphaBay problems: https://www.reddit.com/r/AlphaBay/comments/3aaoig/under_new_management_and_site_is_not_resolvng/ https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/3aeouw/whats_up_with_alphabay/ https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/3afogp/no_deal_was_reached_with_alphabay_we_are_going_to/ https://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/3agz36/official_announcement_on_alphabay_situation/ -->
<!-- Kiss: apparent exit scam but maybe more: https://www.thecthulhu.com/a-small-now-benign-release/#comment-224 -->
See also [DeepDotWeb's list](http://www.deepdotweb.com/2013/10/28/updated-llist-of-hidden-marketplaces-tor-i2p/ "Updated: List of Hidden Marketplaces (Tor & I2P)") ([changelog](http://www.deepdotweb.com/hidden-marketplace-list-changelog/)), [DNstats](https://dnstats.net/), the [DNM market list](http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/wiki/index/sidebar), and the [Hidden Wiki](/docs/sr/2014-08-30-hiddenwiki-comparisiondarknetmarkets.mht) (last updated 30 August 2014).
I may add to the table other variables; possibly useful ones:
- 2-factor-authentication
- Vendor PGP enforced
- FE status
- ideology: whether the operator seems ideological (I suspect SR1 may have lasted longer than most post-SR1 markets because Ulbricht's agorist ideology meant he was not profit-motivated & refused to do an exit scam or shutdown when SR1 was being extorted and may even have been running at loss; but after watching markets in 2014-2015, it seems that such a variable is unlikely to be useful: Ulbricht is the only one clearly ideological, and the rest seem to be aping it or too quiet to tell. Just because the operators say something doesn't mean they believe it, and many say nothing.)
- volume (at what time?)
- how much money was lost when the site scammed or was hacked (only reasonably known for a few scams...)
- apparent nationality of operator
- media coverage
- number of employees (can official claims be trusted?)
- fully-separate buyer/seller accounts
<!-- I can't spider with wget: blue sky, most of Middle Earth... -->
<!-- (Three Hares / Bad Wolf Hosting are excluded for apparently not being active yet.) Three Hares? http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1qsbdp/three_hares_marketplace_is_now_live/ http://3haresyyuxpqqqdz.onion/ not selling as of 16 November 2013; projected live: 20 Dec 2013; inaccessible on 26 December 2013, apparently down on the 15th What on earth is Bad Wolf Hosting? http://www.reddit.com/r/badwolfhosting AWOL: http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1vk190/missing_site_missing_orders/ -->
<!-- http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1vu0aa/new_inviteonly_darknet_site_what_do_you_think/ http://www.topixslhezyytrvm.onion/ registered email 22 Jan 2014; 'Login or register if you have an invite.' 9 Feb 2014 -->
<!-- "country club" a$ap was setting up with jack n hoff: a new marketplace, invite only, with monthly dues http://silkroad5v7dywlc.onion/index.php?topic=16620.0;all "The forum is going live. A$AP is out of the picture. The Country Club is offering a 'trial month' for new users. Buyers pay nothing so long as they are invited and vendors pay $20 the first month and $60 a month afterwards assuming everything goes alright. There are no fee-based transactions. Just the recurring monthly rate." -->
<!-- 'Black Market Union'? http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1vzn9b/creating_a_new_marketplace_called_black_market/ 2 weeks from 24 Jan, so ~8 February 2014 http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1wlkg9/update_on_black_market_union/ 1 Feb? -->
<!-- http://www.reddit.com/r/SilkRoad/comments/1xlwhs/centralizing_dark_we_prefer_gray_markets_is_a_bad/ uh... -->
<!-- Unitech http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xmbtm/in_the_wake_of_the_markets_falling_i_present/ market or not? -->
<!-- Black Services Market: reports of issues starting ~8 Feb 2014: http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1xbex3/bsm_black_services_market_is_a_scam/ http://thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion/forum/viewtopic.php?id=38 http://thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion/forum/viewtopic.php?id=44 And the r5 forum account was last seen '2014-01-18 23:04: Here is a thread where you can see their are multiple people experiencing the same thing: http://thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion/forum/viewtopic.php?id=38 Here are product listings on the site that show the admin is not around: http://thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion/index.php?page=item&id=1215 http://thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion/index.php?page=item&id=1212 http://thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion/index.php?page=item&id=1209 http://thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion/index.php?page=item&id=1202 http://thebsm6okkbx7fik.onion/index.php?page=item&id=1193 scam? http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1y10ps/black_services_market_down/ -->
<!-- Vault 43 http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1v5xgs/vault_43_is_starting_to_come_online_the_door/ http://www.reddit.com/r/onions/comments/1vbj96/vault_43_has_opened_23_factor_escrow_operational/ http://vault43nodowhdmy.onion/res/forum/ up 9 Feb, down 15, 17 Feb http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1y00yp/is_vault43_down/ -->
<!-- Aurora planned market: http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=2115.0 -->
<!-- Darkroad planned: http://thehub7dnl5nmcz5.onion/index.php?topic=1699.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=499012.0;all -->
<!-- Outlaw policy: "Basically everything thst is not meant to/ or harming "innocent people". Stolen bankaccount there the "small individual" would have to pay for: no. stolen accounts of politicians: yes. Fireames for self defense: yes. Nuclear, biological or chemical weapons for mass-murder: no." -->
<!-- Onionshop a custom implementation? $ torify curl -I http://onionshopkue7sxr.onion/ / HTTP/1.1 200 OK / Date: Wed, 21 May 2014 23:15:41 GMT / Server: Apache/2.2.22 (Ubuntu) / X-Powered-By: PHP/5.3.10-1ubuntu3.11 / Set-Cookie: PHPSESSID=im4plmtfgauil19u3uotv7v1h3; path=/ / Expires: Thu, 19 Nov 1981 08:52:00 GMT / Cache-Control: no-store, no-cache, must-revalidate, post-check=0, pre-check=0 / Pragma: no-cache / Vary: Accept-Encoding / Content-Type: text/html -->
<!-- TorBazaar forum: down Aug 19 - Nov 6 -->
<!--
$ torify curl -I 'http://abraxasdegupusel.onion/info'
HTTP/1.1 302 Found
Server: nginx/1.2.1
Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8
Connection: keep-alive
X-Powered-By: PHP/5.4.4-14+deb7u14
Cache-Control: max-age=0, must-revalidate, no-store, nocache, private
Date: Tue, 16 Dec 2014 21:18:45 GMT
Location: http://abraxasdegupusel.onion/login
Pragma: no-cache
Expires: Fri, 01 Jan 1990 00:00:00 GMT
Set-Cookie: laravel_session=eyJpdiI6IkZIT1FMOEd0UE9lYzZ5MW9GVVRwV3c9PSIsInZhbHVlIjoidkRqYTJGcDF2anNtdkVDUDRVZUpWeUdSXC9DZHhJaXFTNXU3YTdSV2VpV1dFVVVMbHRvSVJZYkExMG5uM1wvaGtPZm5pWTY5N0JFeWplOEE3Y29iK2tIZz09IiwibWFjIjoiZjM3ODk1Y2RkMDNiZmUyMjEzZTk4ZTgzM2YyMzdjMTA5NTZmZGMyMTNmZjg4NDA1ZTI2MjBiN2VjYTc3ODk1MSJ9; expires=Tue, 16-Dec-2014 23:18:45 GMT; path=/; httponly
-->
<!-- torify curl -I 'http://pwoah7foa6au2pul.onion'
HTTP/1.1 302 Moved Temporarily
Date: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 00:32:03 GMT
Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8
Connection: keep-alive
X-Powered-By: PHP/5.6.4
Server: AlphaBay Server
Content-Language: en
Set-Cookie: PHPSESSID=qs16aoiqafn57clhkku0a8mmk0; path=/
Expires: Thu, 19 Nov 1981 08:52:00 GMT
Cache-Control: no-store, no-cache, must-revalidate, post-check=0, pre-check=0
Pragma: no-cache
Location: login.php
-->
<!-- $ torify curl -I 'http://cryptomktgxdn2zd.onion/new_listing.php' # Crypto Market
HTTP/1.1 302 Moved Temporarily
Server:
Date: Thu, 19 Feb 2015 18:55:59 GMT
Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8
Connection: keep-alive
X-Powered-By: PHP/5.6.5
Set-Cookie: PHPSESSID=juhkbgchcsc69spb6offs31ie2; path=/
Expires: Thu, 19 Nov 1981 08:52:00 GMT
Cache-Control: no-store, no-cache, must-revalidate, post-check=0, pre-check=0
Pragma: no-cache
Location: index.php -->
<!-- Panacea: down, hacked? went down during 12 February 2015, still down as of 31 March 2015 -->
<!-- SRR i2p: last mirror 2015-05-04; scrape began failing that day, so mark it dead then? -->
# Analysis
TODO: <!-- ping Vespco about results -->
>> "The death rate of bitwasp marketplaces will always be higher because it lowers the barrier of entry to starting and launching your own BTC marketplace so less technical people with lesser funds to start the marketplace will use it and that demographic has a higher chance of failure."
>
> From a predictive standpoint, it doesn't much matter why Bitwasp correlates with shorter lifetimes - whether it's through greater likelihood of being hacked or self-selection by weak-willed/poor/uncommitted/incompetent operators. As long as it does, it'll improve predictions by predicting shorter lifetimes for Bitwasp-using marketplaces, and so it's less safe for buyers: even if the marketplace is using multisig, there's still some limited scope for an exit scam; it wastes one's investment in learning how to use a marketplace; and sellers lose any bond they put up. (Multisig is great and I've been advocating for it for a long time, but it's not a silver bullet.)
>
> In any case, I can try checking if using Bitwasp correlates with being hacked, not just shut down. The sample is currently small enough that the results won't mean much regardless, though.
~~~{.R}
library(XML)
library(RCurl)
html <- getURL("https://www.gwern.net/DNM%20survival#table")
black <- readHTMLTable(html, colClasses = c("factor", as.Date, as.Date, "logical", "factor", "logical", "character", "logical", "logical", "logical", "logical", "logical", "logical", "factor", "logical", "logical", "integer", "logical", "character"))[[1]]
black[black$Codebase=="",]$Codebase <- "unknown"
black$Start <- as.Date(black$Start); black$End <- as.Date(black$End)
black[is.na(black$End),]$End <- Sys.Date() # assuming the table is up to date
black$Age <- black$End - black$Start
black$Age <- as.integer(black$End - black$Start)
# for some markets, these values are impossible to find: they were never decided on, or the market is gone
# there's only a few, so I'm not sure the complexity of multiple-imputation is worthwhile (MICE objects work with almost no libraries...)
# so for the 2 relevant columns so far, I do a simple impute of the median/mode value
black[is.na(black$Fraud),]$Fraud <- as.logical(median(black$Fraud, na.rm=T))
black[is.na(black$Guns),]$Guns <- as.logical(median(black$Fraud, na.rm=T))
# for competing-risks modeling
levels(black$Closure) <- c("unknown", "hacked", "raided", "scam", "voluntary") # sets "" to "unknown"
black <- black[order(black$Start),]
library(survival)
# plot(survfit(Surv(Age, Alive, type="right") ~ 1, data=black), xlab="Days active", ylab="Fraction of markets still active")
# generate fancy timeline of DNM openings/closing:
library(ggplot2)
png(file="~/wiki/images/silkroad/marketlifetimes.png", width = 1500, height = 850)
ggplot(black, aes(colour=Closure)) +
geom_segment(aes(x=Start, xend=End, y=rev(reorder(Market,Start)), yend=rev(reorder(Market,Start))), size=3) +
xlab("Open") + ylab("Market") + theme(legend.position="bottom", axis.text.y=element_text(hjust=1)) + scale_y_discrete(labels = rev(black$Market))
invisible(dev.off())
library(lubridate)
cmodel <- coxph(Surv(Age, Alive) ~ year(black$Start) + Multisig + I2P + Bitcoin+Litecoin+Dogecoin+Darkcoin + Codebase + Guns + Fraud + Hacks + Doxed, data = black, control=coxph.control(iter.max=10000)); cmodel
with(black, survdiff(Surv(Age,Alive)~as.factor(year(Start))))
cmodel2 <- coxph(Surv(Age, Alive) ~ as.factor(year(black$Start)) + ridge(Multisig, I2P, Bitcoin,Litecoin,Dogecoin,Darkcoin, Codebase, Guns, Fraud, Hacks, Doxed), data = black); summary(cmodel2)
cmodel <- coxph(Surv(Age, Alive) ~ strata(year(black$Start)), data = black); cmodel
black$URL <- black$Notes <- black$Market <- NULL
~~~
Example competing-risks model using startup data:
~~~{.R}
# http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2014/11/20/techstars-graduates-success-rates-what-the-numbers-show/
# data:application/octet-stream;charset=utf-8,Year%2C2007%2C2008%2C2009%2C2010%2C2011%2C2012%2C2013%2C2014%0AActive%2C2%2C2%2C7%2C15%2C36%2C68%2C121%2C120%0AFailed%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C11%2C9%2C10%2C5%2C0%0AAcquired%2C5%2C4%2C7%2C5%2C14%2C15%2C4%2C1
rates <- read.csv(stdin(),header=TRUE)
Year,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014
Active,2,2,7,15,36,68,121,120
Failed,3,4,5,11,9,10,5,0
Acquired,5,4,7,5,14,15,4,1
library(reshape2)
rates2 <- melt(rates)
colnames(rates2) <- c("Status", "Year", "Count")
rates2$Year <- as.integer(substring(as.character(rates2$Year), 2))
startups <- NULL
for (i in 1:nrow(rates2)) { startups <- rbind(data.frame(Status = rep(rates2[i,]$Status, rates2[i,]$Count), Year=rep(rates2[i,]$Year, rates2[i,]$Count)), startups) }
library(survival)
startups$Alive <- startups$Status == "Active"
startups$Age <- 2014 - startups$Year
sf <- survfit(Surv(Age, Alive, type="right") ~ 1, data=startups); summary(sf)
# time n.risk n.event survival std.err lower 95% CI upper 95% CI
# 0 473 120 0.74630 0.020007 0.708099 0.78656
# 1 352 121 0.48976 0.023007 0.446680 0.53699
# 2 222 68 0.33974 0.022007 0.299236 0.38573
# 3 129 36 0.24493 0.020778 0.207412 0.28924
# 4 70 15 0.19245 0.020269 0.156552 0.23657
# 5 39 7 0.15790 0.020407 0.122571 0.20342
# 6 20 2 0.14211 0.021202 0.106083 0.19038
# 7 10 2 0.11369 0.024715 0.074248 0.17409
plot(sf)
# https://i.imgur.com/76B7AxN.png
library(cmprsk)
sc <- cuminc(startups$Age, startups$Status, cencode="Active"); sc
# Estimates and Variances:
# $est
# 1 2 3 4 5 6
# 1 Acquired 0.0134537767 0.0791545678 0.172799416 0.223444079 0.321616811 0.397350061
# 1 Failed 0.0141745147 0.0579750421 0.118175302 0.229593560 0.299716940 0.375450190
#
# $var
# 1 2 3 4 5 6
# 1 Acquired 3.62406271e-05 0.000301240943 0.000805565675 0.00118663857 0.00205862260 0.00275961348
# 1 Failed 3.97263451e-05 0.000220342717 0.000570181024 0.00140171794 0.00200661959 0.00272841167
plot(sc, lty=1, color=c(3,2))
# https://i.imgur.com/Tafk9B0.png
~~~
DNMs:
~~~{.R}
library(cmprsk)
blackc <- with(black, cuminc(Age, Closure, cencode="alive")); blackc
# Estimates and Variances:
# $est
# 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
# 1 unknown 0.01136363636 0.02272727273 0.03409090909 0.07954545455 0.10227272727 0.11363636364
# 1 hacked 0.11363636364 0.11363636364 0.11363636364 0.11363636364 0.12500000000 0.12500000000
# 1 raided 0.01136363636 0.06818181818 0.06818181818 0.06818181818 0.07954545455 0.07954545455
# 1 scam 0.25000000000 0.35227272727 0.39772727273 0.39772727273 0.39772727273 0.39772727273
# 1 voluntary 0.22727272727 0.26136363636 0.26136363636 0.27272727273 0.27272727273 0.27272727273
#
# $var
# 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
# 1 unknown 0.0001292408729 0.0002616701315 0.0003911601132 0.0008988554115 0.0011441139596 0.0013003690983
# 1 hacked 0.0011623540396 0.0011623540396 0.0011623540396 0.0011623540396 0.0012886980693 0.0012886980693
# 1 raided 0.0001292408729 0.0007494488199 0.0007494488199 0.0007494488199 0.0009089372449 0.0009089372449
# 1 scam 0.0021690847025 0.0026530347066 0.0028036544633 0.0028036544633 0.0028036544633 0.0028036544633
# 1 voluntary 0.0020307752901 0.0022406509916 0.0022406509916 0.0023107700306 0.0023107700306 0.0023107700306
plot(blackc, lty=1, color=c(1:5), xlab="Days")
# confidence intervals:
plot(blackc, col=c(1:5), lty=1, xlab="Days", curvlab=c('hacked','raided','scam','voluntary'))
for (i in 1:4){
cltype <- names(blackc)[i]
ctm <- blackc[[cltype]]$time
cest <- blackc[[cltype]]$est
cvar <- blackc[[cltype]]$var
clo <- cest ^ exp(-1.96*sqrt(cvar)/(cest*log(cest)))
chi <- cest ^ exp(1.96*sqrt(cvar)/(cest*log(cest)))
lines(ctm[2:length(ctm)], chi[2:length(ctm)], col=i, lty=2, lwd=0.7)
lines(ctm[2:length(ctm)],clo[2:length(ctm)] , col=i, lty=2, lwd=0.7)
}
for (FAIL in c("raided", "hacked", "scam", "voluntary")) {
cat(FAIL,":\n")
print(with(black, crr(Age, Closure, cencode="alive", maxiter=100,
cov1= black[,c("Multisig", "Hacks", "Doxed", "Fraud", "Guns", "I2P", "Bitcoin", "Litecoin", "Dogecoin", "Darkcoin")],
failcode=FAIL)))
cat("\n")
}
# raided :
# convergence: TRUE
# coefficients:
# Multisig Hacks Doxed Fraud Guns I2P Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
# 0.98020 0.32990 1.17200 -0.04558 -0.24180 -17.32000 -15.50000 -11.17000 -28.49000 -27.65000
# standard errors:
# [1] 0.9436 0.4524 0.8089 0.8893 1.0400 1.4230 2.1440 1.3780 2.8650 2.4430
# two-sided p-values:
# Multisig Hacks Doxed Fraud Guns I2P Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
# 3.0e-01 4.7e-01 1.5e-01 9.6e-01 8.2e-01 0.0e+00 4.9e-13 4.4e-16 0.0e+00 0.0e+00
#
# hacked :
# convergence: TRUE
# coefficients:
# Multisig Hacks Doxed Fraud Guns I2P Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
# 0.4371 0.7562 1.0860 0.4956 0.8256 -11.6700 2.8160 -10.2200 -8.0430 -10.9900
# standard errors:
# [1] 0.7206 0.3491 0.7689 0.6925 0.7205 0.8449 1.4230 1.2160 2.1830 0.9428
# two-sided p-values:
# Multisig Hacks Doxed Fraud Guns I2P Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
# 0.54000 0.03000 0.16000 0.47000 0.25000 0.00000 0.04800 0.00000 0.00023 0.00000
#
# scam :
# convergence: TRUE
# coefficients:
# Multisig Hacks Doxed Fraud Guns I2P Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
# -0.10720 0.08057 -0.59050 0.43420 -0.71390 -1.00200 -2.03000 -1.22200 -0.67940 0.29050
# standard errors:
# [1] 0.5164 0.2175 0.5461 0.3790 0.3868 1.1430 0.6974 0.8939 0.7397 0.4950
# two-sided p-values:
# Multisig Hacks Doxed Fraud Guns I2P Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
# 0.8400 0.7100 0.2800 0.2500 0.0650 0.3800 0.0036 0.1700 0.3600 0.5600
#
# voluntary :
# convergence: TRUE
# coefficients:
# Multisig Hacks Doxed Fraud Guns I2P Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
# -0.7029 -2.1160 0.2623 -0.9765 0.2492 2.1520 3.5960 1.8850 -7.7330 -13.3800
# standard errors:
# [1] 0.5779 0.8878 0.6494 0.4879 0.4364 0.4149 1.3520 0.5346 1.9310 0.7828
# two-sided p-values:
# Multisig Hacks Doxed Fraud Guns I2P Bitcoin Litecoin Dogecoin Darkcoin
# 2.2e-01 1.7e-02 6.9e-01 4.5e-02 5.7e-01 2.1e-07 7.8e-03 4.2e-04 6.2e-05 0.0e+00
~~~
Time-varying confounds: Multisig, RoI, σ, hacked, doxed, sales...
Solve with multi-state models? http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/msm/vignettes/msm-manual.pdf / http://web.inter.nl.net/users/rgeskus/CompRisk.pdf
# Predictions
~~~{.R}
# Generate predictions of shutdown in next 6 / 12 months for the still-running marketplaces:
# You are not expected to understand this ugly hack. I don't either. But it *seems* to work...
# for background, see https://gwern.net/Google%20shutdowns & https://www.gwern.net/Silk%20Road#the-bet-bmr-or-sheep-to-die-in-a-year-by-oct-2014
library(rms)
conditionalProbability <- function (d, followupUnits, cmodel) {
chances <- rep(NA, nrow(d)) # stash results
for (i in 1:nrow(d)) {
# extract chance of particular subject surviving as long as it has:
beginProb <- survest(cmodel, d[i,], times=(d[i,]$Age))$surv
if (length(beginProb)==0) { beginProb <- 1 } # set to a default
tmpFollowup <- followupUnits # reset in each for loop
while (TRUE) {
# extract chance of subject surviving as long as it has + an arbitrary additional time-units
endProb <- survest(cmodel, d[i,], times=(d[i,]$Age + tmpFollowup))$surv
# survival curve may not reach that far! 'survexp returns 'numeric(0)' if it doesn't;
# so we shrink down 1 day and try again until 'survexp' *does* return a usable answer
if (length(endProb)==0) { tmpFollowup <- tmpFollowup - 1} else { break }
}
# if 50% of all subjects survive to time t, and 20% of all survive to time t+100, say, what chance
# does a survivor - at exactly time t - have of making it to time t+100? 40%: 0.20 / 0.50 = 0.40
chances[i] <- endProb / beginProb
}
return(chances)
}
# we can't regress on '~ 1' because `survest` crashes inside `conditionalProbability` (‽),
# so let's just toss in all the covariates to make it work despite none of them being well-justified...
cpmodel <- cph(Surv(Age, Alive) ~ Multisig + Litecoin+Dogecoin+Darkcoin + Guns + Fraud, data = black, x=TRUE, y=TRUE, surv=TRUE)
# report in %s rather than raw probabilities for easier reading
black$SixMonth <- round(digits=1, conditionalProbability(black, round(365/2), cpmodel) * 100)
black$OneYear <- round(digits=1, conditionalProbability(black, 365, cpmodel) * 100)
## Predictions from 2 January 2015:
subset(black, Alive, select=c("Market", "SixMonth", "OneYear"))
# Market SixMonth OneYear
# 56 Dream Market 100.0 100.0
# 57 Agora 65.6 65.6
# 58 Outlaw Market 72.3 72.3
# 59 evolution 17.5 17.5
# 60 BlackBank Market 13.1 13.1
# 61 Area51 57.7 28.1
# 62 Middle Earth Marketplace 56.8 28.8
# 63 Diabolus 34.7 0.0
# 64 Nucleus Marketplace 15.7 0.0
# 65 Panacea 89.7 34.4
# 66 Abraxas 85.9 51.2
# 67 AlphaBay 92.5 48.4
## Evaluation: Agora/evolution/BlackBank/Area51/MEM/Nucleus/Panacea/Abraxas were all dead by August 2016.
## Predictions from 18 August 2016:
# Market SixMonth OneYear
# 67 Dream Market 100.0 100.0
# 69 Outlaw Market 0.0 0.0
# 74 AlphaBay 100.0 0.0
# 76 Tochka 53.7 53.7
# 77 Crypto 58.3 58.3
# 79 TheRealDeal 4.1 4.1
# 84 Darknet Heroes League 44.7 44.7
~~~
# See also
- [Silk Road](Silk Road)
- [Google products survival analysis](Google shutdowns) -(a similar analysis of a corpus of Google websites/services/products/software)
- [Bitcoin is Worse is Better](Bitcoin is Worse is Better)
# Appendix
## Return & volatility
~~~{.R}
dead <- as.Date(c("2013-10-02","2013-12-02","2013-09-20","2013-11-29","2013-11-04",
"2013-10-20","2013-10-28","2013-12-22","2014-01-01","2014-01-05",
"2014-02-01","2014-02-01","2014-02-07","2014-02-06","2014-02-04",
"2014-02-07","2014-02-11","2014-02-01","2014-03-23","2014-02-17",
"2014-03-24","2014-02-28","2014-03-13","2014-02-01","2014-02-28",
"2014-03-28","2014-03-01","2014-04-07","2014-04-19","2014-04-20",
"2014-04-20","2014-03-20"))
live <- as.Date("2014-04-24") # yesterday, default for live markets
volatility <- read.csv("http://btcvol.info/csv",
colClasses=c("Date","numeric","numeric","numeric", "numeric"))
# 30-day return
sapply(dead, function(d) { post <- volatility[volatility$date==d,]$price;
pre <- volatility[volatility$date==(d - 30),]$price;
return <- ((post - pre)/pre);
round(return, digits=3) } )
[1] -0.216 4.170 0.103 4.759 0.859 0.327 0.506 -0.173 -0.258 0.127 0.056 0.056 -0.182
[14] -0.033 -0.104 -0.182 -0.233 0.056 -0.014 -0.263 -0.031 -0.351 -0.047 0.056 -0.351 -0.129
[27] -0.334 -0.275 -0.145 -0.129 -0.129 -0.056
sapply(live, function(d) { post <- volatility[volatility$date==d,]$price;
pre <- volatility[volatility$date==(d - 30),]$price;
return <- ((post - pre)/pre);
round(return, digits=3) } )
[1] -0.141
# 30-day volatility
sapply(dead, function(d) { round(volatility[volatility$date==d,]$volatility, digits=3) } )
[1] 0.018 0.102 0.024 0.093 0.035 0.056 0.063 0.127 0.118 0.109 0.047 0.047 0.030 0.031 0.043 0.030
[17] 0.032 0.047 0.046 0.040 0.045 0.048 0.057 0.047 0.048 0.052 0.049 0.046 0.074 0.075 0.075 0.050
tail(volatility$volatility,n=1)
[1] 0.07408
~~~
<!-- Example survival power analysis: can I use this technique?
control_life_spans <- c(0.2, 0.6, 1.1, 1.5, 1.9, 2.4, 2.8, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.8, 10.2, 12.5, 15.2, 17.8, 24, 27.5, 31.5)
controls <- data.frame(Lifespan=control_life_spans, Dead=TRUE, Treatment=FALSE)
intervention_life_spans <- c(1.5, 4.2, 6.8, 9.5, 12.5, 20.5, 24)
intervention <- data.frame(Lifespan=intervention_life_spans, Dead=TRUE, Treatment=TRUE)
experiment <- rbind(controls, intervention)
plot(survfit(Surv(Lifespan, Dead, type="right") ~ Treatment, data=experiment))
# https://i.imgur.com/iWV3col.png
cmodel <- coxph(Surv(Lifespan, Dead) ~ Treatment, data = experiment)
summary(cmodel)
# Call:
# coxph(formula = Surv(Lifespan, Dead) ~ Treatment, data = experiment)
#
# n= 27, number of events= 27
#
# coef exp(coef) se(coef) z Pr(>|z|)
# TreatmentTRUE -0.112 0.894 0.447 -0.25 0.8
#
# exp(coef) exp(-coef) lower .95 upper .95
# TreatmentTRUE 0.894 1.12 0.372 2.15
#
# Concordance= 0.542 (se = 0.055 )
# Rsquare= 0.002 (max possible= 0.992 )
# Likelihood ratio test= 0.06 on 1 df, p=0.801
# Wald test = 0.06 on 1 df, p=0.802
# Score (logrank) test = 0.06 on 1 df, p=0.802
install.packages("powerSurvEpi")
library(powerSurvEpi)
experiment$group <- ifelse(experiment$Treatment, "E", "C") # powerSurvEpi convention: reclassify treated as E, controls as C
pwr <- powerCT(formula = Surv(Lifespan, Dead) ~ group, dat = experiment, nE = 50, nC = 50, RR = 0.894, alpha = 0.05)
pwr$power
# [1] 0.08055
pwrBig <- powerCT(formula = Surv(Lifespan, Dead) ~ group, dat = experiment, nE = 500, nC = 500, RR = 0.894); pwrBig$power
# [1] 0.4233
n <- 500
while (TRUE) { pwr <- powerCT(formula = Surv(Lifespan, Dead) ~ group, dat = experiment, nE = n, nC = n, RR = 0.894);
if (pwr$power >= 0.80) { print (n); break; }
else { n <- n+1; }
}
# [1] 1258
-->
<!-- TODO: ping http://www.reddit.com/r/DarkNetMarkets/comments/1wt3bj/te_expands_and_becomes_a_market/cf54zrm -->
<!-- https://s3.amazonaws.com/academia.edu.documents/46894691/Trust_Development_and_Self_Enforcing_Exchange_Paper_Norgaard_.pdf Julia Norgaard -->