04-class.Rmd

---
title: "Class 4: Logic models, measuring stuff, and DAGs"
author: "Andrew Heiss"
date: "`r Sys.Date()`"
output:
  xaringan::moon_reader:
    lib_dir: "libs"
    chakra: "libs/remark-latest.min.js"
    css: ["default", "css/ath-slides.css", "css/ath-inferno-fonts.css", "css/animate.css"]
    seal: false
    anchor_sections: false
    nature:
      highlightStyle: github
      highlightLines: true
      countIncrementalSlides: false
      ratio: "16:9"
      navigation:
        scroll: false
editor_options: 
  chunk_output_type: console
---

```{r setup, include=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(warning = FALSE, message = FALSE, 
                      fig.retina = 3, fig.align = "center")
```

```{r packages-data, include=FALSE}
library(tidyverse)
library(ggdag)
library(palmerpenguins)
library(modelsummary)
```

```{r xaringanExtra, echo=FALSE}
xaringanExtra::use_xaringan_extra(c("tile_view"))
```

class: center middle main-title section-title-3

# In-person<br>session 4

.class-info[

**February 2, 2023**

.light[PMAP 8521: Program evaluation<br>
Andrew Young School of Policy Studies
]

]

---

name: outline
class: title title-inv-8

# Plan for today

--

.box-1.medium.sp-after-half[Super quick R FAQs]

--

.box-4.medium.sp-after-half[Regression!]

--

.box-2.medium.sp-after-half[Measuring outcomes]

--

.box-5.medium[DAGs]

---

layout: false
name: r-stuff
class: center middle section-title section-title-1 animated fadeIn

# Quick useful<br>R tips

---

layout: true
class: middle

---

.box-1.large[Weird figure/table<br>placement in PDFs]

???

https://bookdown.org/yihui/rmarkdown-cookbook/figure-placement.html

---

.box-1.large[Figure sizing in R]

---

.box-1.large[Figure and table<br>captions and numbers]

???

- <https://bookdown.org/yihui/rmarkdown-cookbook/figure-number.html>
- <https://rmd4sci.njtierney.com/figures-tables-captions-.html>
- <https://rmd4sci.njtierney.com/start.html>
- <https://quarto.org/docs/authoring/cross-references.html>

---

.box-1.large[Make nicer tables when<br>knitting with `kable()`]

.box-inv-1[(Or even fancier tables with [kableExtra](https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/kableExtra/vignettes/awesome_table_in_html.html)!)]

???

- <https://stats.andrewheiss.com/testy-turtle/notebook/models_total-aid.html#table>
- <https://stats.andrewheiss.com/testy-turtle/notebook/models_aid-recipients.html#table>

---

layout: false
name: regression
class: center middle section-title section-title-5 animated fadeIn

# Regression!

---

layout: true
class: middle

---

.box-4.large.sp-after[Drawing lines through points]

--

.center.sp-after[<https://evalsp23.classes.andrewheiss.com/slides/02-slides.html#17>]

--

.box-4[<span style="color: #F6D645;">Lo</span>cally <span style="color: #F6D645;">e</span>stimated/<span style="color: #F6D645;">we</span>ighted <span style="color: #F6D645;">s</span>catterplot <span style="color: #F6D645;">s</span>moothing (LOESS/LOWESS)<br>is a common method (but not the only one!)]

---

.center[
<video controls>
  <source src="img/10/loess_window.mp4" type="video/mp4">
</video>
]

---

.box-4.large[Regression equations]

.box-inv-4[And is the intercept ever useful,<br>or should we always ignore it?]

???

<https://evalsp23.classes.andrewheiss.com/slides/02-slides.html#38>

<https://www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/05/20/marginalia/#regression-sliders-switches-and-mixing-boards>

---

.box-4.medium[What does it mean to<br>hold something constant?]

.box-4.medium[Why is one category always left out<br>when you use a categorical variable?]

---

.center[
<figure>
  <img src="img/02-class/slider-switch-annotated-80.jpg" alt="Single slider and switch" title="Single slider and switch" width="100%">
</figure>
]

---

.center[
<figure>
  <img src="img/02-class/mixer-board-annotated-80.jpg" alt="Mixer board" title="Mixer board" width="100%">
</figure>
]

---

.box-4.medium.sp-after[Why use two steps to create a regression in R?<br>(i.e. assigning it to an object with `<-`?)]

.box-4.medium[Why use `tidy()`<br>from the broom package?]

???

Show model with `lm()`; show t-test with `t.test()`; show both through `tidy()`

Use **marginaleffects**

---

.box-4.medium[How was the 0.05 significance<br>threshold determined?] 

.box-4.medium[Could we say something is significant<br>if p > 0.05, but just note that it is at<br>a higher p-value?<br>Or does it have to fall under 0.05?]

---

.box-4.large[Why all this convoluted<br>logic of null worlds?]

---

layout: false
class: title title-4

# Different "dialects" of statistics

.pull-left[
.box-4.medium[Frequentist]

$$P(\text{data} \mid H_0)$$

.box-inv-4["Regular" statistics;<br>what you've learned<br><small>(and are learning here)</small>]

]

--

.pull-right[
.box-4.medium[Bayesian]

$$P(H \mid \text{data})$$

.box-inv-4[Requires lots of<br>computational power]

]

---

layout: true
class: middle

---

.box-4.medium[Do we care about the actual coefficients<br>or just whether or not they're significant?]

.box-4.medium[How does significance relate to causation?]

.box-4.medium[If we can't use statistics to assert causation<br>how are we going to use this information<br>in program evaluation?]

---

.box-4.large[What counts as a "good" R²?]

---

.center[
<figure>
  <img src="img/02-class/nice-plot-1.png" alt="Euler diagram" title="Euler diagram" width="45%">
</figure>
]

---

.center[
<figure>
  <img src="img/02-class/plot-diagram-prediction-1.png" alt="R2 prediction" title="R2 prediction" width="75%">
</figure>
]

---

.center[
<figure>
  <img src="img/02-class/plot-diagram-estimation-1.png" alt="R2 estimation" title="R2 estimation" width="75%">
</figure>
]

---

.center[
<figure>
  <img src="img/02-class/prediction-vs-estimation.jpg" alt="R2 estimation vs prediction" title="R2 estimation vs prediction" width="100%">
</figure>
]


---

layout: false
name: outcomes
class: center middle section-title section-title-2 animated fadeIn

# Measuring<br>outcomes

---

layout: true
class: title title-2

---

# Outcomes and programs

.box-2.medium[Outcome variable]

.box-inv-2.sp-after-half.SMALL[Thing you're measuring]

--

.box-2.medium[Outcome change]

.box-inv-2.sp-after-half.SMALL[∆ in thing you're measuring over time]

--

.box-2.medium[Program effect]

.box-inv-2.SMALL[∆ in thing you're measuring over time *because of* the program]

---

# Outcomes and programs

<figure>
  <img src="img/04/program-effect.png" alt="Outcomes and program effect" title="Outcomes and program effect" width="100%">
</figure>

---

layout: false
class: middle

.box-2.large[Abstraction]