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modsquad

model-based-indices

Code used for model-based indices of abundance and distribution from bottom trawl survey data, produced by the AFSC GAP ModSquad in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. Model-based indices of abundance and distribution are produced using spatiotemporal delta-GLMMs implemented in sdmTMB. Model-based age composition estimates follow a similar approach, but employ a multivariate extension and are implemented in tinyVAST.

Authors

Primary contact: @Lewis-Barnett-NOAA

Mission

Provide model-based estimates of abundance and their standard error from GAP survey data for stock assessment authors in conjunction with traditional design-based estimators.

GAP Work Plan

  • Species requests & alternate model-based runs/settings in from leads from MESA, SSMA, ESP, ESR by 15 January
  • Run "hindcasts" with previous years of survey data to finalize models prior to inclusion of new data (February 15 - April, code frozen by May)
  • Merge new frozen code (index & data retrieval code) in git repo
  • Upload all output files for hindcast and data used to produce the indices to the appropriate region hindcast folder in the corresponding year of the ModSquad google drive folder
  • Notify the assessment lead & ModSquad lead (Lewis) that you’ve completed hindcasts (March - April)
  • Run hindcast model structure again after survey with updated and validated data (August - Sept, completed by 30 September) and upload results and data used to produce the indices to the appropriate region production folder within the corresponding year folder on google drive
  • Notify the assessment lead & ModSquad lead (Lewis) that you’ve completed the production estimates

General Production Timeline Estimate

Feb 15 - April is the time window for any model exploration/iteration, as requested

  • December - ModSquad leadership meets/communicates to prioritize species + research plans
  • January 15 - Deadline for SAFE authors to submit product requests
  • late January - ModSquad planning meeting with program leads as needed
  • February 15 - SAFE author's revised requests given ModSquad capacity and discussion from REFM meeting
  • March 1 - TOR memo finalized and posted on the web
  • April 1 - Crab hindcasts completed
  • May 1 - Groundfish hindcasts completed (stop all research, decide on which to recommend or not recommend for use in base stock assessment model)
  • August 25 - Model-based estimates for EBS crabs completion target date
  • September 25 - Model-based estimates for NBS crabs target date
  • September 30 - Model-based estimates for groundfishes completion target date, pending bottom trawl data QAQC timeline
  • October 15 - Final deadline for completing groundfish model-based estimates

Resources

Minimum standard of versions of software and key dependencies (i.e., using these versions or later)

  • 2025:
    • R v4.0.2: sdmTMB v0.6.0, tinyVAST v0.7.0-alpha, TMB v1.7.22, Matrix v1.4-0, DHARMa v0.4.5; or,
    • MRAN v4.0.2: sdmTMB v0.5.0, tinyVAST v0.1.0-alpha, TMB v1.7.16, Matrix v1.2-18, DHARMa v0.3.2
  • 2024:
    • Rv4.0.2: VAST v3.9.0, FishStatsUtils v2.10.0, cpp VAST_v13_1_0, TMB v1.7.22, Matrix v1.4-0, DHARMa 0.4.5; or,
    • MRAN v4.0.2: VAST v3.9.0, FishStatsUtils v2.10.0, cpp VAST_v13_1_0, TMB v1.7.16, Matrix v1.2-18, DHARMa v0.3.2
  • 2023:
    • Rv4.0.2: VAST v3.9.0, FishStatsUtils v2.10.0, cpp VAST_v13_1_0, TMB v1.7.22, Matrix v1.4-0, DHARMa 0.4.5; or,
    • MRAN v4.0.2: VAST v3.9.0, FishStatsUtils v2.10.0, cpp VAST_v13_1_0, TMB v1.7.16, Matrix v1.2-18, DHARMa v0.3.2
  • 2022:
    • Rv4.0.2: VAST v3.8.2, FishStatsUtils v2.10.0, cpp VAST_v13_1_0, TMB v1.7.22, Matrix v1.4-0, DHARMa 0.4.5; or,
    • MRAN v4.0.2: VAST v3.9.0, FishStatsUtils v2.10.0, cpp VAST_v13_1_0, TMB v1.7.16, Matrix v1.2-18, DHARMa v0.3.2
  • 2021: Rv4.0.2: VAST v3.6.1, FishStatsUtils v2.8.0, cpp VAST_v12_0_0, TMB v1.7.18, Matrix v1.2.18
  • 2020: VAST v3.3.0, FishStatsUtils v2.5.0, cpp VAST_v8_2_0

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code used for model based index production in GOA

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