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CMIP6 easterlies #12
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Before going into looking at what the easterlies look in different SSP's, I started looking at how different CMIP6 models compare to JRA55 for the historical period (1958 - 2015). Over the continent seems to be where the models have low performance in both, zonal and meridional componentes. Zonal averages however may be a bit deceitful for our purposes (on shelf processes) because the coastline is not zonal. So an alternative to working in lat lon space (i.e. zonal and meridional winds) is to project the winds in the orientation of the continental shelf and work with those. I could project them fairly easy onto the 1000m isobath (consistent with Hazel and Stewart 2019) But I'm not sure how to do the equivalent for the entire continental shelf. I can't use the topography because its too noisy on the shelf.... any ideas would be very welcome! |
I think this has been mentioned before, but just putting it down here for completeness, and possibly this might help to answer Paul's question of whether the perturbation doing what we want. Are there any CMIP (or possibly AMIP even?) models that have a high resolution atmosphere? As a first check, how does the spatial pattern of winds in those higher resolution models compare with JRA? Do they capture the small scale features along the coastline that are related to the katabatics? Then as a second step, if the high-res models do capture the spatial structure of the winds well, how do the winds in those models change in the future? Do they simulate the same, nearly zonally uniform, southward shift of the westerlies that the CMIP6 multi-model does? Or is there more spatial structure in the wind change in those models? |
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Historical periodI've put together here to make it clearer JRA55-do v1.4 mean wind fields for the historical period as well as CMIP6 multimodel mean, along side with the trends for the historical period. Zonal winds
Meridional winds
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Projections (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)Differences with historical period show:
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Amazing figures @julia-neme . Please remind me: does ERA show patterns similar to JRA55-do? I believe you checked already but with to be sure. |
Hi @StephenGriffies, yes mean patterns of ERA5 and JRA55-do are similar! JRA55-do has larger wind speeds in general than ERA5. And there are also some differences in trends in a couple of regions. |
Comparison against JRA55 for the historical period (1958 - 2015):
Done:
To do:
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