bibliography.bib

@article{Berryman:1979bs,
    abstract = {The ecology of bark beetle (Scolytidae) populations has been intensively studied over the past half century, particularly in western North America where massive bark beetle outbreaks have occurred since the early 1900's, and in Germany where large outbreaks arose in the years following World War II. Sur¬ prisingly there have been few attempts to synthesize this information into a general theory, although Thalenhorst (1958) laid a conceptual foundation for such an analysis. The present paper attempts to advance our theoretical under¬ standing of the dynamics of bark beetle populations by incorporating dispersal processes into an earlier model of beetle productivity (Berryman, 1974). Unfortu¬ nately, almost all of the research on bark beetle populations has been concerned with changes occurring within infested trees, and there is little empirical evidence on which to base an analysis of dispersal. Hence, much of this paper will be of a deductive nature.},
    author = {Berryman, Alan A},
    journal = {Bulletin of the Swiss Entomological Society},
    pages = {227--234},
    title = {{Dynamics of bark beetle populations: analysis of dispersal and redistribution.}},
    volume = {52},
    year = {1979}
}
@book{Berryman:1999bk,
    author = {Berryman, Alan A},
    edition = {1st},
    isbn = {9780748740154},
    pages = {256},
    publisher = {Taylor & Francis},
    title = {{Principles of Population Dynamics and Their Application}},
    year = {1999}
}
@article{Boone:2011fr,
    abstract = {We evaluated the ability of constitutive and inducible defenses to protect trees and restrict herbivore reproduction across the endemic, incipient (i.e., transitory), and eruptive phases of a native bark beetle species. Host defenses were major constraints when mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) populations were low, but inconsequential after stand-level densities surpassed a critical threshold. We annually examined all lodgepole pines (Pinus contorta Douglas var. latifolia) in six 12–18 ha stands for 3–6 years for beetle attack and establishment as beetle densities progressed through vari- ous population phases. We also assayed a suite of tree physiological and chemical attributes and related them to subsequent attacks during that year. Rapidly inducible defenses appeared more important than constitutive defenses, and total monoterpenes were more important than particular constituents. Trees that exude more resin and accumulate higher monoterpene concentrations in response to simulated attack largely escaped natural attacks when populations were low. In stands where beetles had reached incipient densities, these defenses were ineffective. Larger diameter trees had more pronounced defenses than smaller diameter trees. As populations increased, beetles selected increasingly larger, more resource-rich trees, despite their better defenses. When populations were too low for cooperative attack, beetles exploited trees weakened by lower-stem insects. Behavioral plasticity allows beetles to persist at endemic levels until conditions shift, after which positive feedbacks predominate.},
    author = {Boone, Celia K and Aukema, Brian H and Bohlmann, J{\"{o}}rg and Carroll, Allan L and Raffa, Kenneth F},
    doi = {10.1139/x11-041},
    isbn = {0045-5067},
    issn = {0045-5067},
    journal = {Canadian Journal of Forest Research},
    number = {6},
    pages = {1174--1188},
    title = {{Efficacy of tree defense physiology varies with bark beetle population density: a basis for positive feedback in eruptive species}},
    url = {http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/x11-041},
    volume = {41},
    year = {2011}
}
@article{Cooke:2017fem,
    abstract = {Since the mountain pine beetle (MPB) breached the Rocky Mountains and first appeared in the province of Alberta, Canada, in alarming numbers in the summer of 2005, it has spread eastward across Alberta at an average rate of 80 km/year. In the absence of aggressive control, the beetle will undoubtedly continue to spread eastward. The spread rate is expected to slow as the leading edge invasion front moves further from significant population sources in the dense pine of the Rocky Mountain foothills into the scattered pine of the boreal plains region. However, the realized rate of spread is uncertain, as it will be regulated by a number of factors, some of which are uncertain (e.g. how an insect behaves in a novel environment), inherently unpredictable (e.g. weather), or under human control (e.g. spread control efforts). Whereas previous studies have examined factors affecting spread individually, we present a synthetic framework that models future spread rates as a function of coupled nonlinear recruitment dynamics that arise from the distinct population phases of MPB, and correlated thermal response functions that are characteristic of the influence of climate and climate change on ecosystem processes. We analyzed the model's behavior under two climatic driving scenarios (drying climate and warming climate) and one forest health scenario (an increase in the ratio of stressed to vigorous trees), with the hypothesis that these scenarios would produce unanticipated outcomes in the severity and timing of beetle outbreaks. Our results showed a classic “tipping-point” model capable of generating sudden, unanticipated behavior, demonstrating that MPB populations may respond very strongly to small changes in climate. The MPB may be the first of many systems to behave in unprecedented ways. The model makes clear that the eastward rate of spread will depend on whether, when, and where the system transitions from the current epidemic state to a new endemic state. However, major uncertainties in the system limit our ability to make robust predictions of spread under natural conditions. The integrating framework presented here provides insight into scientific uncertainties worth targeting for applied research into spread management. In the absence of ability to predict beetle spread, forest management should continue to explore ways of coping with unpredictable disturbances, including adaptive capacity to adjust to transformational ecosystem changes expected under climate change.},
    author = {Cooke, Barry J and Carroll, Allan L},
    journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
    keywords = {Invasion biology,Mountain pine beetle,Nonlinear dynamics,Population dynamics,Risk assessment,Spread control,Uncertainty cascades},
    pages = {11--25},
    title = {{Predicting the risk of mountain pine beetle spread to eastern pine forests: Considering uncertainty in uncertain times}},
    volume = {396},
    year = {2017}
}
@article{Grimm:2005sc,
    abstract = {Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.},
    author = {Grimm, Volker and Revilla, Eloy and Berger, Uta and Jeltsch, Florian and Mooij, Wolf M and Railsback, Steven F and Thulke, Hans-Hermann H and Weiner, Jacob and Wiegand, Thorsten and DeAngelis, Donald L},
    doi = {10.1126/science.1116681},
    isbn = {0036-8075},
    issn = {1095-9203},
    journal = {Science},
    keywords = {Animal,Animals,Behavior,Biological,Decision Support Techniques,Ecology,Economic,Ecosystem,Fishes,Fishes: physiology,Models,Systems Theory,Theoretical,Trees,Uncertainty},
    mendeley-groups = {Modeling/Agent_Based_Modelling,Modeling/Pattern_Oriented_Modelling,Modeling},
    month = {nov},
    number = {5750},
    pages = {987--991},
    pmid = {16284171},
    title = {{Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology}},
    url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16284171},
    volume = {310},
    year = {2005}
}
@article{Grimm:2012pom,
  abstract = {Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels-especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour-is essential for making the science predictive. 'Pattern-oriented modelling' (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions.},
  author = {Grimm, Volker and Railsback, Steven F},
  doi = {10.1098/rstb.2011.0180},
  issn = {1471-2970},
  journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences},
  keywords = {Animals,Ecosystem,Fires,Forecasting,Forecasting: methods,Hares,Hares: growth & development,Models,Theoretical},
  month = {jan},
  number = {1586},
  pages = {298--310},
  pmid = {22144392},
  title = {{Pattern-oriented modelling: a 'multi-scope' for predictive systems ecology.}},
  url = {http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=3223804&tool=pmcentrez&rendertype=abstract},
  volume = {367},
  year = {2012}
}
@article{MacQuarrie:2011fr,
    abstract = {Thinning, the selective removal of some trees from a forest, is one way forest managers can reduce the probability that a forest will be susceptible to attack by bark beetles. Although this method has been shown to be effective, it is not clear whether the effect arises when pre-outbreak populations are small or during the epidemic phase when outbreaks are growing. We adopted a population dynamics approach to determine if the effect of limit or basal area thinning could be observed in the form of differential beetle recruitment using lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex P. & C. Laws.) mortality data from previously published studies as a proxy measure of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) population size. We found that mountain pine beetle populations exhibit density-dependent population dynamics that are influenced by the silvicultural history of their host's stand. Thinning did not change the epidemic equilibrium but instead caused a shift in dynamics from linear to nonlinear. In a validation test, the models developed for thinned and unthinned stands predicted reproductive rates in independent locations. These data also suggest the epidemic dynamics of mountain pine beetle may be sensitive to perturbations and to systematic trends associated with climate variability and climate change.},
    author = {MacQuarrie, Chris J K and Cooke, Barry J},
    doi = {10.1139/x11-007},
    isbn = {0045-5067},
    issn = {0045-5067},
    journal = {Canadian Journal of Forest Research},
    number = {5},
    pages = {1031--1046},
    title = {{Density-dependent population dynamics of mountain pine beetle in thinned and unthinned stands}},
    url = {http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/x11-007},
    volume = {41},
    year = {2011}
}
@article{Raffa:1983fe,
    author = {Raffa, Kenneth F and Berryman, Alan A},
    journal = {Ecological Monographs},
    keywords = {allelochemics,bark beetles,coevolution,cooperative behaviour,pheromones,plant-insect interactions},
    month = {mar},
    number = {1},
    pages = {27--49},
    title = {{The Role of Host Plant Resistance in the Colonization Behaviour and Ecology of Bark Beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae)}},
    volume = {53},
    year = {1983}
}
@article{Trzcinski:2009ae,
    abstract = {1) Mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae populations have large, economically significant outbreaks. Density dependence and environmental variability are expected to have important effects on their dynamics. We analysed time series data from an outbreak in the 1930s to determine the relative importance of population density and environmental variability on local population growth rates. 2) Resource depletion occurred rapidly at the scale of 0.4 ha and population growth rates were strongly density dependent. Annual environmental changes did not have detectable effects on population growth rates, leading to the conclusion that intrinsic processes influenced local population density more than extrinsic factors during this outbreak. 3) Our calculated value of r max (1.16) does not suggest intrinsically cyclic population dynamics. Our estimate of r max and density dependence will be useful in developing applied models of mountain pine beetle outbreaks, and the subsequent evaluation of management strategies.},
    author = {Trzcinski, M Kurtis and Reid, Mary L},
    doi = {10.1111/j.1461-9563.2008.00408.x},
    issn = {14619555},
    journal = {Agricultural and Forest Entomology},
    keywords = {Dendroctonus ponderosae,Pinus contorta,density dependence,depletion,environmental,impact,increase,maximum rate of population,resource,spatial scale,weather effects},
    month = {may},
    number = {2},
    pages = {185--196},
    title = {{Intrinsic and extrinsic determinants of mountain pine beetle population growth}},
    url = {http://blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1461-9563.2008.00408.x},
    volume = {11},
    year = {2009}
}