bibliography.bib

@article{Bentz:2010bs,
    abstract = {Climatic changes are predicted to significantly affect the frequency and severity of disturbances that shape forest ecosystems. We provide a synthesis of climate change effects on native bark beetles, important mortality agents of conifers in western North America. Because of differences in temperature-dependent life-history strategies, including cold-induced mortality and developmental timing, responses to warming will differ among and within bark beetle species. The success of bark beetle populations will also be influenced indirectly by the effects of climate on community associates and host-tree vigor, although little information is available to quantify these relationships. We used available population models and climate forecasts to explore the responses of two eruptive bark beetle species. Based on projected warming, increases in thermal regimes conducive to population success are predicted for Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby) and Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, although there is considerable spatial and temporal variability. These predictions from population models suggest a movement of temperature suitability to higher latitudes and elevations and identify regions with a high potential for bark beetle outbreaks and associated tree mortality in the coming century.},
    author = {Bentz, Barbara J and R{\'{e}}gni{\`{e}}re, Jacques and Fettig, Christopher J and Hansen, E M and Hayes, Jane L and Hicke, Jeffrey A and Kelsey, R G and Negr{\'{o}}n, Jos{\'{e}} F and Seybold, S J},
    doi = {10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.6},
    isbn = {0006-3568},
    issn = {0006-3568},
    journal = {BioScience},
    keywords = {cold tolerance,mountain pine beetle,seasonality,spruce beetle,temperature},
    number = {8},
    pages = {602--613},
    pmid = {21311662},
    title = {{Climate Change and Bark Beetles of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and Indirect Effects}},
    url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.6},
    volume = {60},
    year = {2010}
}
@incollection{Carroll:2004rm,
    abstract = {The current latitudinal and elevational range of mountain pine beetle is not limited by available hosts. Instead, its potential to expand north and east has been restricted by climatic conditions unfavorable for brood development. We combined a model of the impact of climatic conditions on the establishment and persistence of mountain pine beetle populations with a spatially explicit, climate-driven simulation tool. Historic weather records were used to produce maps of the distribution of past climatically suitable habitats for mountain pine beetles in British Columbia. Overlays of annual mountain pine beetle occurrence on these maps were used to determine if the beetle has expanded its range in recent years due to changing climate. An examination of the distribution of climatically suitable habitats in 10-year increments derived from climate normals (1921-1950 to 1971-2000) clearly shows an increase in the range of benign habitats. Furthermore, an increase (at an increasing rate) in the number of infestations since 1970 in formerly climatically unsuitable habitats indicates that mountain pine beetle populations have expanded into these new areas. Given the rapid colonization by mountain pine beetles of former climatically unsuitable areas during the last several decades, continued warming in western North America associated with climate change will allow the beetle to further expand its range northward, eastward and toward higher elevations.},
    author = {Carroll, Allan L and Taylor, Stephen W and R{\'{e}}gni{\`{e}}re, Jacques and Safranyik, Les},
    booktitle = {Mountain Pine Beetle Symposium: Challenges and Solutions. {O}ctober 30-31, 2003, {K}elowna, {B}ritish {C}olumbia.},
    editor = {Shore, Terry L and Brooks, J E and Stone, J E},
    pages = {223--232},
    publisher = {Natural Resources Canada},
    title = {{Effects of Climate Change on Range Expansion by the Mountain Pine Beetle in British Columbia}},
    year = {2004}
}
@techreport{Cooke:2009ow,
    abstract = {A landscape-scale ecophysiological model of mountain pine beetle (MPB) overwintering mortality was developed, validated and communicated. The model was field-validated in Alberta during the winters of 2006-07 and 2007-08. Key model assumptions were tested experimentally during the winter of 2007-08. The model was operationalized for forecasting in Alberta in early 2008 and key outputs (maps and time-series) communicated to the public through a new Natural Resources Canada website. The model describes daily overwintering mortality in the above-snow component of the MPB population. Field and lab tests suggest the model should perform reasonably well during winters characterized by at least one severe cold snap. In 2006-07 the overwintering mortality rate across Alberta was predicted to be 79%, in close agreement with the observed survival rate of 81%. The model suggested that most of the mortality occurred in a single pulse late November 2006, when temperatures across the province dropped suddenly to a winter low between -32°C and -38°C. The following year, in 2007-08, a higher level of mortality was predicted and observed, largely a result of the severe cold snap of late January 2008, when temperatures dropped to a winter low between -35°C and -47°C. In both winters, mortality was predicted and observed to be much higher in northern than in southern Alberta. Despite the overall predictive power of the model, there is substantial unexplained variation in observed mortality. Model performance in relatively mild conditions also remains to be tested. These are two issues that require further research. Putting these observations in context, a retrospective analysis of historical beetle winter weather in Alberta (1951-2008) indicates that the last two winters represent a temporary reversion back to “normal” (i.e., 1980s-style) winter climatic conditions. A return in the coming years to a positive warming trend in winter temperatures would pose a risk of increased potential of outbreaks and eastward range expansion.},
    address = {Victoria, BC},
    author = {Cooke, Barry J},
    institution = {Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre},
    isbn = {9781100125183},
    keywords = {climatic suitability,cold tolerance,model validation,overwintering mortality,process-based simulation,supercooling},
    pages = {25},
    title = {{Forecasting mountain pine beetle-overwintering mortality in a variable environment}},
    year = {2009}
}
@article{Cooke:2017fem,
    abstract = {Since the mountain pine beetle (MPB) breached the Rocky Mountains and first appeared in the province of Alberta, Canada, in alarming numbers in the summer of 2005, it has spread eastward across Alberta at an average rate of 80 km/year. In the absence of aggressive control, the beetle will undoubtedly continue to spread eastward. The spread rate is expected to slow as the leading edge invasion front moves further from significant population sources in the dense pine of the Rocky Mountain foothills into the scattered pine of the boreal plains region. However, the realized rate of spread is uncertain, as it will be regulated by a number of factors, some of which are uncertain (e.g. how an insect behaves in a novel environment), inherently unpredictable (e.g. weather), or under human control (e.g. spread control efforts). Whereas previous studies have examined factors affecting spread individually, we present a synthetic framework that models future spread rates as a function of coupled nonlinear recruitment dynamics that arise from the distinct population phases of MPB, and correlated thermal response functions that are characteristic of the influence of climate and climate change on ecosystem processes. We analyzed the model's behavior under two climatic driving scenarios (drying climate and warming climate) and one forest health scenario (an increase in the ratio of stressed to vigorous trees), with the hypothesis that these scenarios would produce unanticipated outcomes in the severity and timing of beetle outbreaks. Our results showed a classic “tipping-point” model capable of generating sudden, unanticipated behavior, demonstrating that MPB populations may respond very strongly to small changes in climate. The MPB may be the first of many systems to behave in unprecedented ways. The model makes clear that the eastward rate of spread will depend on whether, when, and where the system transitions from the current epidemic state to a new endemic state. However, major uncertainties in the system limit our ability to make robust predictions of spread under natural conditions. The integrating framework presented here provides insight into scientific uncertainties worth targeting for applied research into spread management. In the absence of ability to predict beetle spread, forest management should continue to explore ways of coping with unpredictable disturbances, including adaptive capacity to adjust to transformational ecosystem changes expected under climate change.},
    author = {Cooke, Barry J and Carroll, Allan L},
    journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
    keywords = {Invasion biology,Mountain pine beetle,Nonlinear dynamics,Population dynamics,Risk assessment,Spread control,Uncertainty cascades},
    pages = {11--25},
    title = {{Predicting the risk of mountain pine beetle spread to eastern pine forests: Considering uncertainty in uncertain times}},
    volume = {396},
    year = {2017}
}
@Manual{Fortin:2021,
    title = {BioSIM: 'BioSIM' Client for Climate Variables},
    author = {Mathieu Fortin and Remi Saint-Amant and Canadian Forest Service},
    year = {2021},
    note = {R package version 0.3.0-38},
    url = {https://sourceforge.net/p/mrnfforesttools/biosimclient/wiki/BioSIM-R/},
}
@article{Logan:2003fr,
    abstract = {Forest insects and pathogens are the most pervasive and important agents of disturbance in North American forests, affecting an area almost 50 times larger than fire and with an economic impact nearly five times as great. The same attributes that result in an insect herbivore being termed a “pest” predispose it to disruption by climate change, particularly global warming. Although many pest species have co-evolved relationships with forest hosts that may or may not be harmful over the long term, the effects on these relationships may have disastrous consequences. We consider both the data and models necessary to evaluate the impacts of climate change, as well as the assessments that have been made to date. The results indicate that all aspects of insect outbreak behavior will intensify as the climate warms. This reinforces the need for more detailed monitoring and evaluations as climatic events unfold. Luckily, we are well placed to make rapid progress, using software tools, databases, and the models that are already available.},
    author = {Logan, Jesse A and R{\'{e}}gni{\`{e}}re, Jacques and Powell, James A},
    doi = {10.1890/1540-9295(2003)001[0130:ATIOGW]2.0.CO;2},
    issn = {1540-9295},
    journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
    month = {apr},
    number = {3},
    pages = {130--137},
    title = {{Assessing the impacts of global warming on forest pest dynamics}},
    url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3867985 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/1540-9295(2003)001[0130:ATIOGW]2.0.CO;2},
    volume = {1},
    year = {2003}
}
@techreport{Nealis:2008gc,
    address = {Victoria, BC},
    author = {Nealis, Vince G and Peter, Brian},
    institution = {Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre},
    pages = {38},
    title = {{Risk assessment of the threat of mountain pine beetle to Canada's boreal and eastern pine forests}},
    type = {Information Report},
    year = {2008}
}
@techreport{Nealis:2014re,
    abstract = {Rapid changes in the distribution of the mountain pine beetle and the significant investments made by forest managers in response resulted in a request for a reassessment of the threat by the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers via the National Forest Pest Strategy. This report summarizes the findings of the reassessment in 2010. Many of the predictions made in an initial assessment in 2007 have come true. The beetle continues to expand both its geographic and host range. It is persisting in areas once thought to be climatically unsuitable and is finding and attacking even sparse clusters of trees. It is now confirmed to be successfully reproducing in jack pine, a transcontinental pine species of the boreal forest. In addition to the potential impacts to forestry, an increase in tree mortality could aggravate the already high fire risk characteristic of pine forest types. The rapid availability of diverse survey and research results and improved communications among professionals enabled by the risk analysis process offer jurisdictions new possibilities for evidence-based, adaptive policy decisions. The risk assessment process makes scientific analysis of response options more feasible than ever.},
    address = {Ottawa, ON},
    author = {Nealis, Vince G and Cooke, Barry J},
    institution = {Canadian Council of Forest Ministers},
    isbn = {9781100233017},
    pages = {27},
    title = {{Risk assessment of the threat of mountain pine beetle to Canada's boreal and eastern pine forests}},
    url = {http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=35406},
    year = {2014}
}
@techreport{Regniere:1995BioSim,
    address = {Sainte-Foy, Quebec},
    author = {R{\'{e}}gni{\`{e}}re, Jacques and Cooke, Barry J and Bergeron, V},
    institution = {Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre},
    pages = {67pp},
    title = {{BioSIM: a computer-based decision support tool for seasonal planning of pest management activities. User's manual.}},
    year = {1995}
}
@article{Regniere:2007ip,
    abstract = {Cold-induced mortality is a key factor driving mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, population dynamics. In this species, the supercooling point (SCP) is representative of mortality induced by acute cold exposure. Mountain pine beetle SCP and associated cold-induced mortality fluctuate throughout a generation, with the highest SCPs prior to and following winter. Using observed SCPs of field-collected D. ponderosae larvae throughout the developmental season and associated phloem temperatures, we developed a mechanistic model that describes the SCP distribution of a population as a function of daily changes in the temperature-dependent processes leading to gain and loss of cold tolerance. It is based on the changing proportion of individuals in three states: (1) a non cold-hardened, feeding state, (2) an intermediate state in which insects have ceased feeding, voided their gut content and eliminated as many ice-nucleating agents as possible from the body, and (3) a fully cold-hardened state where insects have accumulated a maximum concentration of cryoprotectants (e.g. glycerol). Shifts in the proportion of individuals in each state occur in response to the driving variables influencing the opposite rates of gain and loss of cold hardening. The level of cold-induced mortality predicted by the model and its relation to extreme winter temperature is in good agreement with a range of field and laboratory observations. Our model predicts that cold tolerance of D. ponderosae varies within a season, among seasons, and among geographic locations depending on local climate. This variability is an emergent property of the model, and has important implications for understanding the insect's response to seasonal fluctuations in temperature, as well as population response to climate change. Because cold-induced mortality is but one of several major influences of climate on D. ponderosae population dynamics, we suggest that this model be integrated with others simulating the insect's biology. {\textcopyright} 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
    author = {R{\'{e}}gni{\`{e}}re, Jacques and Bentz, Barbara},
    doi = {10.1016/j.jinsphys.2007.02.007},
    isbn = {0022-1910},
    issn = {00221910},
    journal = {Journal of Insect Physiology},
    keywords = {Cold hardiness,Cold resistance,Cold tolerance,Model,Mountain pine beetle,Supercooling point,Winter mortality},
    number = {6},
    pages = {559--572},
    pmid = {17412358},
    title = {{Modeling cold tolerance in the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae}},
    volume = {53},
    year = {2007}
}
@incollection{Safranyik:1975bk,
    abstract = {The interaction between lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.) and the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopk.), with its associated blue stain fungi (Ceratocystis montia Rumb. and Europhium clavigerum Robinson and Davidson), is described, as are consequences of this interaction for lodgepole pine trees and stands. A map of hazard ratings for western Canada based upon climatic variables affecting this interaction is proposed. Finally, guidelines for management of lodgepole pine to minimize losses from the mountain pine beetle are included.},
    address = {Pullman, WA},
    author = {Safranyik, Les and Shrimpton, D M and Whitney, H S},
    booktitle = {Management of Lodgepole Pine Ecosystems Symposium Proceedings},
    editor = {Baumgartner, D M},
    pages = {406--428},
    pmid = {19770638291},
    publisher = {Washington State University Coop. Extension Service},
    title = {{An interpretation of the interaction between lodgepole pine, the mountain pine beetle, and its associated blue stain fungi in western Canada}},
    url = {http://wfiwc.org/sites/default/files/Safranyik_Shrimpton_Whitney_1975.pdf},
    year = {1975}
}
@article{Safranyik:2010ce,
    abstract = {The potential for mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), to expand its historical range in North America from west of the continental divide into the eastern boreal forest was assessed on the basis of analyses of the effects of climate and weather on brood development and survival, and key aspects of the interaction of mountain pine beetle with its hosts and associated organisms. Variation in climate suitability and high host susceptibility in the boreal forest create a finite risk of establishment and local persistence of low-level mountain pine beetle populations outside their historical range. Eventually, these populations could become widespread and cause epidemic infestations, creating an ecological pathway eastward through the boreal forest. Such infestations would reduce the commercial value of forests and impose an additional disturbance on native ecological systems.},
    author = {Safranyik, Les and Carroll, Allan L and R{\'{e}}gni{\`{e}}re, Jacques and Langor, David W and Riel, William G and Shore, Terry L and Peter, Brian and Cooke, Barry J and Nealis, Vince G and Taylor, Stephen W},
    doi = {10.4039/n08-CPA01},
    issn = {0008-347X},
    journal = {The Canadian Entomologist},
    month = {apr},
    number = {5},
    pages = {415--442},
    title = {{Potential for range expansion of mountain pine beetle into the boreal forest of North America}},
    url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0008347X00001206},
    volume = {142},
    year = {2010}
}