model-00

Model 0 for Salt Lake City

This simulation model features the following:

1. Five different states: Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Removed.

2. The population size is 10,000 individuals, all connected at the household level, and between households.

3. A baseline probability of infection is .9.

4. Daily recovery rate for an infected agent is 1/7.

5. Daily death rate for an infected agent is .01.

6. There is one virus that starts with 5% of the population exposed.

7. The simulation lasts 100 days, and replicated a thousand times.

The implementation details can be found in 00main.cpp. After compilation, the execution of the program results in the following output:

./00main.o

## Starting multiple runs (100)
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##  done.
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## SIMULATION STUDY
## 
## Population size     : 10000
## Number of entitites : 100
## Days (duration)     : 100 (of 100)
## Number of variants  : 1
## Last run elapsed t  : 0.00s
## Total elapsed t     : 28.00s (100 runs)
## Rewiring            : off
## 
## Virus(es):
##  - Omicron (baseline prevalence: 10 seeds)
## 
## Tool(s):
##  - Mask (baseline prevalence: 10.00%)
##  - Vaccine (baseline prevalence: 30.00%)
## 
## Model parameters:
##  - Mask redux transmission   : 0.8000
##  - Prob. Dev. Symptoms       : 0.7000
##  - Prob. Hospitalization     : 0.0500
##  - Prob. Infecting           : 0.5000
##  - Prob. Recovery            : 0.1000
##  - Prob. death               : 0.3000
##  - Vax Death redux           : 0.9500
##  - Vax Efficacy              : 0.9000
##  - Vax Efficacy decay        : 0.5000
##  - Vax Prob. Hospitalization : 0.0100
##  - Vax Recovery enhance      : 0.5000
## 
## Distribution of the population at time 100:
##  - (0) Susceptible           :  9990 -> 4
##  - (1) Exposed               :    10 -> 0
##  - (2) Infected Symptomatic  :     0 -> 864
##  - (3) Infected Asymptomatic :     0 -> 0
##  - (4) Hospitalized          :     0 -> 49
##  - (5) Recovered             :     0 -> 4775
##  - (6) Removed               :     0 -> 4308
## 
## Transition Probabilities:
##  - Susceptible            0.94  0.06  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
##  - Exposed                0.00  0.82  0.12  0.06  0.00  0.00  0.00
##  - Infected Symptomatic   0.00  0.00  0.97  0.00  0.03  0.00  0.00
##  - Infected Asymptomatic  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.88  0.00  0.12  0.00
##  - Hospitalized           0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.66  0.08  0.27
##  - Recovered              0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
##  - Removed                0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00

Statuses’ trajectories have the following distribution:

Distribution of the mean reproductive number

## `stat_bin()` using `bins = 30`. Pick better value with `binwidth`.

Distribution of the Rt

Connection network

## 
## Attaching package: 'igraph'

## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
## 
##     decompose, spectrum

## The following object is masked from 'package:base':
## 
##     union

## Loading required package: grid

## 
## Attaching package: 'netplot'

## The following object is masked from 'package:igraph':
## 
##     ego