Note I am including my estimated drop rates but caveat lector, you should probably do some testing to see if you agree with them. Personal best guess as of 3.20. Do not confuse the precision of some of these estimates with accuracy. It is very difficult to estimate the drop rates because even if I run a bunch of contract/blueprints some chest are not super common, especially those tied to trap disarm.
Note Drop rate estimates are per chest, reward rooms in blueprints have two chests per room.
The main drops from abyss chests are
- Abyss Jewels, either Murderous Eye Jewel, Ghastly Eye Jewel, or Searching Eye Jewel.
- Abyss Scarabs
Based on my data I don't believe the abyss jewels can drop either fractured or synthesized from this chest. They are also limited to item level 83 which limits some mods.
The abyss jewels could only be worth more than 1c if they were guaranteed to be rolled especially well via some sort of loot 2.0 mechanism. Based on the jewels I have seen, I do not believe this is the case. Even if they are, their low ilvl and the ability to roll 5 and 6 mod jewels with atlas limits how good they could possibly be.
Scarabs can be rusted, polished, gilded. Scarab generation is easy right now, but it's not impossible that these scarabs could be worth something under the right conditions.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Abyss Jewel | ~1.3-1.5 |
| Abyss Scarab | ~0.3 |
The main drops from armour chests are
- Armours, Synthesised and Fractured
- Socket Jewelry (Jeweller's, Fusings, Armour's Scrap, Chomatic Orb)
The limited item level, ilvl 83, is going to put a cap on the value of fractured, synthesised bases. Additionally fractured bases are printed, at high ilvl, by archnem mobs.
Historically attempting to generate 6 links from this chest, via trinket mods like drop corrupted or drops fully linked, were a way to generate divines and I had some luck with drop with Elder/Shaper influence and the Exalted shard vendor recipe. But with the Exalt/Divine changes drastically lowered the viability of these strategies.
I only attempt to pick up the synthesised and fractured bases and I'm not sure what my loot filter is currently set to so take these numbers with extra salt.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Synthesised | ~0.1-0.2 |
| Fractured | ~0.1-0.2 |
The main drops from blight chests are
- Oils
- Blight Maps
- Blight Scarab
Grouping all oils and assuming they are not currency gives me the most stable estimate for drop rates. I see less clear oils in blueprints relative contracts, so its not impossible that rarity impacts which oils drop.
Maps with the enchant Area Contains a Blight Encounter. Even in lvl 83 contracts drop yellow tier maps most of the time. I tracked for fungal maps instead of blight encounters so my tracking for this might be more off than normal.
Like abyss scarabs, blight scarabs can be rusted, polished, gilded.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Any Oil | ~7.7 |
| Azure Oil | ~0.2 |
| Blight Maps | ~0.3-0.5 |
| Blight Scarab | ~0.3-0.5 |
The main drops from breach chests are
- Breach Rings
- Breach Splinters
- Breach Scarabs
Breach Rings can be used to create grasping mail.
Grouping all breach splinters and assuming they are currency gives me the most stable estimate for drop rates. I see slightly more rare splinters in blueprints relative to contracts so its not impossible that rarity impacts which splinters drop.
Like the other league scarabs, breach scarabs can be rusted, polished, gilded.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Breach Ring | ~0.5 |
| Breach Splinters (All) | ~6 |
| Breach Scarab | ~0.5-1 |
The main drops from currency chests are
- Exalted / Divine Orb
- Chaos Orb
- Awakened Sextant
- Exalted Shard
- Bubble Gum Currency
I don't have enough data to guess at the divine orb drop rate, but I made a combined exalt/divine. I think they should have the same drop rate so maybe half of the exalt/divine can be expected to be divines.
Chaos orbs and awakened sextants are the most consistent value from these chests.
A bunch of other currency drops from these chests, my filter blocks most of these unless they drop in sufficient stacks.
Note Most people run currency duplication elements which impact the drop rates from this chest the most.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Exalted / Divine Orb | ~0.01 |
| Chaos Orb | ~1-1.5 |
| Awakened Sextant | ~0.2 |
The main drops from delirium chests are
- Simulacrum Splinters
- Cluster Jewels
The cluster jewels don't appear to drop fractured or synthesised. About 2 in 9 are small 3 in 9 are medium and 4 in 9 are large.
Note Simulacrum Splinters are the strangest drop. I see a lot drop sometimes and sometimes none, also I see less in blueprints than in contracts.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Simulacrum Splinter | ~3.5-6 |
| Cluster Jewel | ~1 |
| Deli Maps | ~0.4 |
The main drops from divination chests are
- Stacked Decks
- Divination Card Drops
- Divination Scarabs
Stacked decks are considered one of the best drops and are considered currency for chance to double.
I've included a couple more common cards drop rates. It's an interesting question if the drop rate from the chests are based on natural rates or stacked deck weights.
Unlike some of the other scarab drops divination scarabs seem to be much less frequent. Or it's possible the others are overestimated, as I've opened far more divination chests.
| Item | Estimate Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Stacked Decks | ~3.4 |
| Rain of Chaos | ~0.45 |
| Destined to Crumble | ~0.18-0.3 |
| Divination Scarabs | ~0.07-0.14 |
The main drops from essence chests
- Streaming Essence
- Remnant of Corruption
Because you cannot generate the 5 corrupt essence this isn't as good as mapping for essence.
It seems like the drop rate for these essences are split with all the orange-red essences having about the same drop rate, doubt to spite, and then the 4 purple being less common, scorn, envy, misery, dread.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Screaming Essence (any) | 4.4 |
| Screaming Essence (Low) | 0.24 |
| Screaming Essence (Mid) | 0.15 |
| Remnant of Corruption | ~0.1 |
The main drops from Fossil chests
- Fossils
- Resonators
- Sulphite Scarabs
I don't think I've traded or used any fossils, so I think these fossil and resonator drops should be representative of weights.
| Fossil | Count |
|---|---|
| Jagged | 45 |
| Dense | 43 |
| Scorched | 36 |
| Metallic | 36 |
| Pristine | 33 |
| Aberrant | 31 |
| Figid | 29 |
| Serrated | 11 |
| Lucent | 10 |
| Prismatic | 9 |
| Corroded | 8 |
| Deft | 8 |
| Shuddering | 7 |
| Perfect | 7 |
| Gilded | 6 |
| Fundamental | 5 |
| Sanctified | 4 |
| Aetheric | 4 |
| Bound | 4 |
| Resonator | Count |
|---|---|
| Primitive | ~38 |
| Potent | 7 |
| Powerful | 5 |
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Fossil | ~1.9 |
| Resonator | ~0.35 |
| Sulphite Scarab | ~0.1-0.2 |
The main drops from fragment chests
- Sacrifice Fragments
- Offering to the Goddess
- Scarabs
Historically fragment chests could drop boss fragments, but the table was changed some time near Archnemesis league. It's also possible that historically it could drop upgraded offering to the goddess. Something to keep your eye out for.
I get the best results assuming that Sacrifice Fragments are not currency items.
I get the best results assuming that Offering to the Goddess is a currency item.
I think most of my Atziri sets are from heist, so this should be a pretty good approximate of the distribution.
| Sacrifice | Count |
|---|---|
| Dusk | 238 |
| Noon | 121 |
| Dawn | 183 |
| Midnight | 80 |
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Sacrifice Fragment | ~3.7-3.9 |
| Offering to the Goddess | ~0.6 |
| Scarab | ~1.2-1.8 |
General chests can drop things from any of the other chests, but my intuition is that currency is over-represented.
The main drops from the legion chests are
- Incubators
- Legion Splinter
- Legion Scarab
I've found a pretty good mix of incubators. I gave a bunch to a guild mate but of the ones I still have, I don't seem to have any foreboding, which seems odd, or celestial blacksmith, though I have the armour one, or Geomancer's (6-link), which I think can only come at the end of currency/trinket blueprints. It's possible that diviner's and fragmented are the most common, and skittering, abyss, enchanted, infused, and primal is well represented.
I get the best fit assuming that legion splinters are currency, but I still typcally see more in blueprints. Legion splinter drops are not uniform, the typically more common ones, Eternal Empire, Karui, and Vaal, are more common, Templar are uncommon, and Maraketh are rare.
Legion scarabs appear to be a bit more rare than some of the other league scarabs, but it may be an artifact of the small sample count.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Incubator | ~1.4-1.6 |
| Legion Splinter | ~4-5 |
| Legion Scarab | ~0.1-0.2 |
The main drops from map chests are
- Maps
- Awakened Sextants
- Boss Maps
- Cartography Scarab
By boss maps either one of the shaper/elder guardians or conquerors and the drop rate is the accumulated amount, so 0.1 would be 0.1 boss maps dropped per chest, which could be any of the supported types.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Awakened Sextants | ~1.2-1.5 |
| Boss Maps | ~0.1-0.2 |
| Shaper Guardians | ~0.05-0.1 |
| Elder Guardians | ~0.02 |
| Conquerors | ~0.06 |
| Cartography Scarab | ~0.05 |
- Catalyst
- Metamorph Scarab
I get the best fit assuming that catalysts are currency.
I think this distribution should be pretty representative of the what you would find in terms of catalysists, excepting some of the fertiles probably came from the divination card "The Finishing Touch".
| Catalyst | Count |
|---|---|
| Intrinsic | 133 |
| Imbued | 88 |
| Noxious | 70 |
| Turbulent | 69 |
| Abrasive | 66 |
| Fertile | ~30 |
| Prismatic | 19 |
| Tempering | 18 |
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Catalyst | ~3.6 |
| Metamorph Scarab | ~0.2 |
The main drops from Harbinger chests
- Ancient Orb/Fragments
- Annulment Orb/Fragments
- Harbinger Orb/Fragments
- Harbinger Scarab
It's possible that these chests can drop fracturing shards, but I haven't seen any, though drop rates in harbinger maps indicated that would be expected.
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Ancient Orb | ~0.07 |
| Ancient Shard | ~0.1-0.2 |
| Orb of Annulment | ~0 |
| Annulment Shard | ~0.1-0.2 |
| Harbinger's Orb | ~0.08-0.1 |
| Harbinger's Shard | ~0.05-0.14 |
| Exalted Shard | ~0.4-0.6 |
| Harbinger Scarab | 0.05-0.1 |
I don't even know what to look for in terms of talismans.
The main drops from unique chests are
- Uniques, including atleast some unique maps.
- Reliquery Scarabs
| Item | Estimated Drop Rate |
|---|---|
| Reliquery Scarab | ~0.06 |
See the section on the armour. The discussion and drop rates for fractured/synthesised bases is practically the same.
Blueprints can drop in contracts/blueprints though they are pretty rare.
The Unique Contracts at the end of their associated questlines can also drop in contracts/blueprints but not normal contracts.
The small chests in the run appear to be like small general chests with random mixed loot, just less of it.
Safes appear at the end of some runs, I think these are similar if not the same as small chests. Note they don't cause alert so you can always open them, though they are slow to open.