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trump vs hilary.html
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<html>
<head>
<title>Trump vs Hillary</title>
<link rel='stylesheet' href='trmphlry.css'>
</head>
<body>
<div class = 'head'>
<h1><center>A closer look at the 2016 elections - Trump Vs Hillary</center> </h1>
</div>
<div class = 'trmphlry'>
</div>
<h1>Introduction </h1>
<p class="para1">
<br>
<i>
My purpose for these visualizations was to shed light on the factors that lead to the Trump government being elected in 2016.
I was very curious to see what it was that swayed voters who had previously voted for Barack Obama in 2012 to shift over to Donald Trump
four years later. Another aspect of my question was what lead to Hillarys deafeat? I wanted to understand what demographic Hillary had targeted and
failed to garner votes from.
To get to the bottom of these questions I began analyzing the
<a href="https://www.kaggle.com/joelwilson/2012-2016-presidential-elections#votes.csv">Presedential Elections Dataset from Kaggle.</a>
</i>
</p>
<h2>How did Trump win against Hillary?</h2>
<p class ='para1'>
<i>
I wanted to get a bare bone understanding of what areas each of the candidates dominated and by what margin, I wanted to glean if there was
any sort of location advantage or favouritism that each of the candidates experienced. This lead me to go for a chloropleth visualization with
a nested pie chart. I took an average of the votes gained by each of the candidates in each county and calculated the overall votes for each state
and compared them using a pie chart, to calculate the colors I used sum of the point difference field for each state and colored it red(Republicans) for negative values
and blue(Democrats) for positive values.
</i>
</p>
<center>
<img src='Chloropleth.png' style="width:500px;height:300px;" >
</center>
<p class="para1">
<i>
From the visualization it was clear that Trump had dominated most of the southern and midwestern states while Hillary had won the states in
the far east and the far west, but what I found fascinating in this visualization is that most of the states that Hillary won were home to the
largest metro cities of America, and what I found particularly interesting was the majority with which she had won Washington DC which is 88.7%.
This outlier lead me to take a closer look at what it was that made Hillary so successful in these select few locations and compare them with the states
which trump won.
</i>
<p>
<h2>What is the difference between the states won by Trump and the states won by Hillary?</h2>
<p class="para1">
<i>
To better understand the kind of people that favoured Trump over Hillary I wanted to group the states by their financial standing. I wanted to
see if any pattern would emerge which would lead me to gain some insight over the voter base for Trump and Hillary. I chose a scatterplot visualization
in hopes of observing a spatial difference between the two groups of voters, I used the paramters of poverty percentage and Average income of the voters
because I wanted to understand if wage gap was playing a factor in determining the Candidate in a particular state. To achieve this visualization I took
an average of the poverty percentage across all counties and similarly took an average for the income for each county based on the state. Coloring was again
done on the basis of the sum of point differnce across each state.
</i>
</p>
<center>
<img src='Scatterplot.png' style="width:500px;height:300px;" >
</center>
<p class="para1">
<i>
It is clear from the visualization that the states won by Trump and Hillary can be segregated into two distinct financial groups. Most of the states that
had 20 percent or more of their population below poverty line and very low average incomes were won by Trump, where as
the states won by Hillary were generally high average income and low poverty percentage. It is also interesting to note that the outlier in this chart
as well is Washington DC, which is in the middle and to the far right implying moderate poverty percentage and very high average income.
Seeing as how Hillary dominated Washington DC with 88 percentage of the votes it is fair to assume that the average income of the state is a huge
factor for Hillarys voter base.
</i>
</p>
<h2>How diverse are the voters for Trump and Hillary?</h2>
<p class='para1'>
<i>I wanted to gain a more in depth understanding of the voter base for Trump and Hillary, so I calculated the average number of Black, Hispanic and
White voters across the states. I displayed this data in a divided bar graph because I wanted to see how significant minorities were in the voting process.
Especially since Trump has always taken a staunch anti-immigration stance towards Mexico, I wanted to see if there was any impact or backlash from
the Mexican community.
</i>
</p>
<center>
<img src='Divided Bar.png' style="width:500px;height:300px;">
</center>
<p class='para1'>
<i>It can be seen that the majority of the voters for Trump were White, dominating the chart with 88% of all his voters, but what is a little shocking
is that 7% of his votes come from the Hispanic community which is slightly bigger than the votes he garnered from the Black community.
When it came to Hillary's voter base it was a little more diverse than Trumps, implying that Hillary had the overall minority support. So we can narrow down
Trumps voter base to be mainly White citizens with below average income and a large percentage of them below the poverty line, implying that these individulas
voted for Trump out of the frustration of their economic status in hopes of him bringing economic stability back to America. Since Obama was the
president during the time of recession this might have lead to a lot of people becoming dissatisfied with the economic status of the country and the dearth
of jobs leading them to jump ship.
</i>
</p>
<h2>What states shifted from supporting Obama to Trump?</h2>
<p class='para1'>
<i>
The previous visualizations lead me to belive that Trump gained the upper hand by promising to make America more economically stable and targetting
working class Americans that wanted more jobs. What I wanted to now quantify was if there was a palpable shift of votes from previously Democrat dominated states.
To achieve this I went about visualizing the number of states that Obama and Trump had in common using a Venn Diagram, I have made a separate legend using
horizontal bars to better quantify this data. Since there was no traditional way to make a Venn diagram in Tableau, I made three different sets (Obama), (Trump)
and (Obama & Trump) and using calculation fields I made the parameters for the visualizations.
</i>
</p>
<center>
<img src='Venn Diagram 2.png' style="width:350px;height:200px;" >
</center>
<center>
<img src='Legend.png' style="width:350px;height:75px;" >
</center>
<p class='para1'>
<i>
From the visualization we can see that 6 states (Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) have shifted over to Trump in 2016 from
Obama in 2012. I belive that it was these 6 states that really made the difference and tipped the scales towards Trump.
</i>
</p>
<h1>Conclusion</h1>
<p class ="para1">
<i>
I belive that Trump could succeed in winning the election by targetting the voters who wanted a drastic change in the economy
while Hillary failed because her major voting base was from minorities which in the end did not amount to much,
thus leading to the 6 democrat dominated states jumping ship to the Trump government. I believe that a fraction of the democrat voter base was dissatisfied
with the Obama government because of the recession and dearth of jobs which lead them to pick Trump in hopes of him bringing up the economy and creating new jobs.
</i>
</p>
</body>
</html>