Skip to content

Latest commit

 

History

History
87 lines (60 loc) · 5.42 KB

README.md

File metadata and controls

87 lines (60 loc) · 5.42 KB
Raw

Quartz Solar Forecast

All Contributors

The aim of the project is to build an open source PV forecast that is free and easy to use. Open Climate Fix also provide a commercial PV forecast, please get in touch at quartz.support@openclimatefix.org

The current model uses GFS or ICON NWPs to predict the solar generation at a site

from quartz_solar_forecast.forecast import run_forecast
from quartz_solar_forecast.pydantic_models import PVSite

# make input data
site = PVSite(latitude=51.75, longitude=-1.25, capacity_kwp=1.25)

# run model, uses ICON NWP data by default
predictions_df = run_forecast(site=site, ts='2023-11-01')

Which gives the following prediction

predictions.png

Model

The model is a gradient boosted tree model and uses 9 NWP variables. It is trained on 25,000 PV sites with over 5 years of PV history, which is available here. The training of this model is handled in pv-site-prediction TODO - we need to benchmark this forecast.

The 9 NWP variables, from Open-Meteo documentation, are mentioned above with their appropariate units.

  1. Visibility (km), or vis: Distance at which objects can be clearly seen. Can affect the amount of sunlight reaching solar panels.
  2. Wind Speed at 10 meters (km/h), or si10 : Wind speed measured at a height of 10 meters above ground level. Important for understanding weather conditions and potential impacts on solar panels.
  3. Temperature at 2 meters (°C), or t : Air temperature measure at 2 meters above the ground. Can affect the efficiency of PV systems.
  4. Precipiration (mm), or prate : Precipitation (rain, snow, sleet, etc.). Helps to predict cloud cover and potentiel reductions in solar irradiance.
  5. Shortwave Radiation (W/m²), or dswrf: Solar radiation in the shortwave spectrum reaching the Earth's surface. Measure of the potential solar energy available for PV systems.
  6. Direct Radiation (W/m²) or dlwrf: Longwave (infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back into the atmosphere. confirm it is correct
  7. Cloud Cover low (%), or lcc: Percentage of the sky covered by clouds at low altitudes. Impacts the amount of solar radiation reachign the ground, and similarly the PV system.
  8. Cloud Cover mid (%), or mcc : Percentage of the sky covered by clouds at mid altitudes.
  9. Cloud Cover high (%), or lcc : Percentage of the sky covered by clouds at high altitude

Known restrictions

  • The model is trained on UK MetOffice NWPs, but when running inference we use GFS data from Open-meteo. The differences between GFS and UK MetOffice, could led to some odd behaviours.
  • It looks like the GFS data on Open-Meteo is only available for free for the last 3 months.

Abbreviations

  • NWP: Numerical Weather Predictions
  • GFS: Global Forecast System
  • PV: Photovoltaic

Contribution

We welcome other models

Contributors ✨

Thanks goes to these wonderful people (emoji key):

Peter Dudfield
Peter Dudfield
💻		 Megawattz
Megawattz
🤔		 EdFage
EdFage
📖 💻		 Chloe Pilon Vaillancourt
Chloe Pilon Vaillancourt
📖

This project follows the all-contributors specification. Contributions of any kind welcome!