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Program.cs
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Program.cs
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using ScottPlot;
using System.Data;
namespace MonteCarloSimulation
{
class Program
{
static void Main(string[] args)
{
if (!CheckInputParameters(args, out string mode, out int numberOfSimulations, out int periodsPerRound, out int itemsToComplete, out string historicFile))
return;
List<int> pastDeliveredItems = LoadHistoric(historicFile);
if (pastDeliveredItems.Count==0)
return;
// Run Monte Carlo simulations
List<int> simulationResults = RunSimulations(mode, numberOfSimulations, periodsPerRound, pastDeliveredItems, itemsToComplete);
// Create bar chart and save as image
CreateBarChart(simulationResults, "MonteCarloResults.png");
// Calculate and print percentiles
PrintPercentiles(simulationResults);
}
static List<int> HowLong(int itemsToComplete, int numberOfSimulations, List<int> pastDeliveredItems){
List<int> simulationResults = new List<int>();
Random rand = new Random();
// Run Monte Carlo simulations
for (int i = 0; i < numberOfSimulations; i++){
int totalDelivered = 0;
int numberOfPeriods=0;
while (totalDelivered<itemsToComplete){
int randomIndex = rand.Next(pastDeliveredItems.Count);
totalDelivered += pastDeliveredItems[randomIndex];
numberOfPeriods++;
}
simulationResults.Add(numberOfPeriods);
}
// Sort results Ascending because the less iterations the better --> handy to calculate percentiles
simulationResults = simulationResults.OrderBy(i=>i).ToList();
return simulationResults;
}
static List<int> HowMany(int numberOfSimulations, int periodsPerRound, List<int> pastDeliveredItems){
List<int> simulationResults = new List<int>();
Random rand = new Random();
// Run Monte Carlo simulations
for (int i = 0; i < numberOfSimulations; i++){
int totalDelivered = 0;
for (int j = 0; j < periodsPerRound; j++){
int randomIndex = rand.Next(pastDeliveredItems.Count);
totalDelivered += pastDeliveredItems[randomIndex];
}
simulationResults.Add(totalDelivered);
}
// Sort results Descending because the more items the better --> handy to calculate percentiles
simulationResults = simulationResults.OrderByDescending(i=>i).ToList();
return simulationResults;
}
static bool CheckInputParameters(string[] args, out string mode, out int numberOfSimulations, out int periodsPerRound, out int itemsToComplete, out string historicFile){
numberOfSimulations=10000; // default value
periodsPerRound =1; // default value
itemsToComplete =0;
mode = "";
historicFile = "";
if (args.Length!=4){
Console.WriteLine("Usage:");
Console.WriteLine("----------");
Console.WriteLine("dotnet run howmany [history input file] [number of simulations] [number of periods]");
Console.WriteLine("OR");
Console.WriteLine("dotnet run howlong [history input file] [number of simulations] [items to complete]");
Console.WriteLine("");
return false;
}
mode = args[0].ToUpper();
switch (mode){
case "HOWMANY":
if (!int.TryParse(args[2], out numberOfSimulations)){
Console.WriteLine("Wrong value for parameter 'Number of Simulations'");
return false;
}
if (!int.TryParse(args[3], out periodsPerRound)){
Console.WriteLine("Wrong value for parameter 'Number of Periods in each scenario'");
return false;
}
break;
case "HOWLONG":
if (!int.TryParse(args[2], out numberOfSimulations)){
Console.WriteLine("Wrong value for parameter 'Number of Simulations'");
return false;
}
if (!int.TryParse(args[3], out itemsToComplete)){
Console.WriteLine("Wrong value for parameter 'Items to complete'");
return false;
}
break;
default :
Console.WriteLine("First parameter should be 'howmany' or 'howlong'");
return false;
}
historicFile = args[1];
if (!File.Exists(historicFile)){
Console.WriteLine("Cannot find the historic file '{0}'", historicFile);
return false;
}
return true;
}
static List<int> RunSimulations(string mode, int numberOfSimulations, int periodsPerRound, List<int> pastDeliveredItems, int itemsToComplete){
if (mode=="HOWMANY")
return HowMany(numberOfSimulations, periodsPerRound, pastDeliveredItems);
else
return HowLong(itemsToComplete, numberOfSimulations, pastDeliveredItems);
}
static void PrintPercentiles(List<int> simulationResults){
Console.WriteLine($"50th Percentile: {GetPercentile(simulationResults, 50)}");
Console.WriteLine($"75th Percentile: {GetPercentile(simulationResults, 75)}");
Console.WriteLine($"80th Percentile: {GetPercentile(simulationResults, 80)}");
Console.WriteLine($"85th Percentile: {GetPercentile(simulationResults, 85)}");
Console.WriteLine($"90th Percentile: {GetPercentile(simulationResults, 90)}");
}
static int GetPercentile(List<int> sortedResults, double percentile)
{
int index = (int)Math.Ceiling((percentile / 100.0) * sortedResults.Count) - 1;
return sortedResults[index];
}
private static List<int> LoadHistoric(string historicFile){
// Read historical data
List<int> pastDeliveredItems = new List<int>();
try{
StreamReader reader = new StreamReader(historicFile);
while (!reader.EndOfStream)
{
var line = reader.ReadLine();
var values = line?.Split(',');
var isNumeric = int.TryParse(values?[1], out int deliveredItems);
if (isNumeric) {
pastDeliveredItems.Add(deliveredItems);
}
}
}
catch (Exception){
Console.WriteLine("Error opening input file.");
}
return pastDeliveredItems;
}
static void CreateBarChart(List<int> results, string filePath)
{
// Count frequency of each result
var frequency = results.GroupBy(x => x).ToDictionary(g => g.Key, g => g.Count());
// Prepare the data for the chart
var values = new List<double>();
var positions = new List<double>();
var labels = new List<string>();
int i = 0;
foreach (var item in frequency.OrderBy(x => x.Key)){
values.Add(item.Value);
positions.Add(i);
labels.Add(item.Key.ToString());
i++;
}
// Create the plot
var plt = new Plot();
plt.Resize(3000, 2000);
// Add bar chart
plt.AddBar(values.ToArray(), positions.ToArray());
// Set the labels
plt.XTicks(positions.ToArray(), labels.ToArray());
plt.XAxis.TickLabelStyle(rotation: 45);
plt.XLabel("Total Delivered Items");
plt.YLabel("Frequency");
plt.Title("Monte Carlo Simulation Results");
plt.XAxis.TickLabelStyle(fontSize: 20);
// Save the plot as a PNG file
plt.SaveFig(filePath);
Console.WriteLine($"Chart saved to {filePath}");
}
}
}