diff --git a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/_inc/state/reducers.js b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/_inc/state/reducers.js
index 5757c7beeaeb4..d899d6dc2faad 100644
--- a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/_inc/state/reducers.js
+++ b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/_inc/state/reducers.js
@@ -274,6 +274,13 @@ const welcomeBanner = ( state = {}, action ) => {
 	}
 };
 
+const lifecycleStats = ( state = {}, action ) => {
+	switch ( action.type ) {
+		default:
+			return state;
+	}
+};
+
 const reducers = combineReducers( {
 	products,
 	backupRewindableEvents,
@@ -286,6 +293,7 @@ const reducers = combineReducers( {
 	stats,
 	statsCounts,
 	welcomeBanner,
+	lifecycleStats,
 } );
 
 export default reducers;
diff --git a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/_inc/state/selectors.js b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/_inc/state/selectors.js
index 7270f56cbabfd..3696db7f9f0dd 100644
--- a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/_inc/state/selectors.js
+++ b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/_inc/state/selectors.js
@@ -138,6 +138,37 @@ const getStatsCounts = state => {
 	return state.statsCounts?.data;
 };
 
+const getLifecycleStats = state => {
+	return state.lifecycleStats;
+};
+
+const getGuessedSiteLifecycleStatus = state => {
+	const { modules, purchases, plugins, isSiteConnected, isUserConnected } =
+		getLifecycleStats( state );
+
+	// 'new' = no purchases + less than 3 modules
+	if ( purchases.length === 0 && modules.length < 3 ) {
+		// 'brand-new' = 'new' + (no user or site connection + no modules + only one plugin)
+		if (
+			( ! isUserConnected || ! isSiteConnected ) &&
+			modules.length === 0 &&
+			plugins.length === 1
+		) {
+			return 'brand-new';
+		}
+
+		return 'new';
+	}
+
+	// 'settling-in' = 1 purchase and less than 10 modules
+	if ( purchases.length === 1 && modules.length < 10 ) {
+		return 'settling-in';
+	}
+
+	// 'established' = 2 or more purchases or 10 or more modules
+	return 'established';
+};
+
 const isFetchingStatsCounts = state => {
 	return state.statsCounts?.isFetching || false;
 };
@@ -163,6 +194,7 @@ const selectors = {
 	...countBackupItemsSelectors,
 	...statsCountsSelectors,
 	getWelcomeBannerHasBeenDismissed,
+	getGuessedSiteLifecycleStatus,
 };
 
 export default selectors;
diff --git a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..42db3fa20ea47
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+Significance: minor
+Type: added
+
+Add site lifecycle status guess to My Jetpack
diff --git a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/composer.json b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/composer.json
index a46e4afd5951c..5c001c5c8cdb1 100644
--- a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/composer.json
+++ b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/composer.json
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@
 			"link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
 		},
 		"branch-alias": {
-			"dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+			"dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
 		},
 		"version-constants": {
 			"::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"
diff --git a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/package.json b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/package.json
index 97f3265450179..b35c9319a9ac7 100644
--- a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/package.json
+++ b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/package.json
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 {
 	"private": true,
 	"name": "@automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack",
-	"version": "4.12.1-alpha",
+	"version": "4.13.0-alpha",
 	"description": "WP Admin page with information and configuration shared among all Jetpack stand-alone plugins",
 	"homepage": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack/tree/HEAD/projects/packages/my-jetpack/#readme",
 	"bugs": {
diff --git a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/src/class-initializer.php b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/src/class-initializer.php
index 109b3f047f0d7..e7a66dc6b270e 100644
--- a/projects/packages/my-jetpack/src/class-initializer.php
+++ b/projects/packages/my-jetpack/src/class-initializer.php
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ class Initializer {
 	 *
 	 * @var string
 	 */
-	const PACKAGE_VERSION = '4.12.1-alpha';
+	const PACKAGE_VERSION = '4.13.0-alpha';
 
 	/**
 	 * HTML container ID for the IDC screen on My Jetpack page.
@@ -189,6 +189,7 @@ public static function enqueue_scripts() {
 			)
 		);
 		$modules             = new Modules();
+		$connection          = new Connection_Manager();
 		$speed_score_history = new Speed_Score_History( wp_parse_url( get_site_url(), PHP_URL_HOST ) );
 		wp_localize_script(
 			'my_jetpack_main_app',
@@ -214,6 +215,13 @@ public static function enqueue_scripts() {
 				'IDCContainerID'         => static::get_idc_container_id(),
 				'userIsAdmin'            => current_user_can( 'manage_options' ),
 				'userIsNewToJetpack'     => self::is_jetpack_user_new(),
+				'lifecycleStats'         => array(
+					'jetpackPlugins'  => self::get_installed_jetpack_plugins(),
+					'isSiteConnected' => $connection->is_connected(),
+					'isUserConnected' => $connection->is_user_connected(),
+					'purchases'       => self::get_purchases(),
+					'modules'         => self::get_active_modules(),
+				),
 				'isStatsModuleActive'    => $modules->is_active( 'stats' ),
 				'isUserFromKnownHost'    => self::is_user_from_known_host(),
 				'isCommercial'           => self::is_commercial_site(),
@@ -246,6 +254,63 @@ public static function enqueue_scripts() {
 		}
 	}
 
+	/**
+	 * Get product slugs of the active purchases
+	 *
+	 * @return array
+	 */
+	public static function get_purchases() {
+		$purchases = Wpcom_Products::get_site_current_purchases();
+		if ( is_wp_error( $purchases ) ) {
+			return array();
+		}
+
+		return array_map(
+			function ( $purchase ) {
+				return $purchase->product_slug;
+			},
+			$purchases
+		);
+	}
+
+	/**
+	 * Get installed Jetpack plugins
+	 *
+	 * @return array
+	 */
+	public static function get_installed_jetpack_plugins() {
+		$plugin_slugs = array_keys( Plugins_Installer::get_plugins() );
+		$plugin_slugs = array_map(
+			static function ( $slug ) {
+				$parts = explode( '/', $slug );
+				if ( empty( $parts ) ) {
+					return '';
+				}
+				// Return the last segment of the filepath without the PHP extension
+				return str_replace( '.php', '', $parts[ count( $parts ) - 1 ] );
+			},
+			$plugin_slugs
+		);
+
+		return array_values( array_intersect( self::JETPACK_PLUGIN_SLUGS, $plugin_slugs ) );
+	}
+
+	/**
+	 * Get active modules (except ones enabled by default)
+	 *
+	 * @return array
+	 */
+	public static function get_active_modules() {
+		$modules        = new Modules();
+		$active_modules = $modules->get_active();
+
+		// if the Jetpack plugin is active, filter out the modules that are active by default
+		if ( class_exists( 'Jetpack' ) && ! empty( $active_modules ) ) {
+			$active_modules = array_diff( $active_modules, Jetpack::get_default_modules() );
+		}
+		return $active_modules;
+	}
+
 	/**
 	 * Determine if the current user is "new" to Jetpack
 	 * This is used to vary some messaging in My Jetpack
diff --git a/projects/plugins/backup/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/plugins/backup/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..9aa70e3ec1f75
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/plugins/backup/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Significance: patch
+Type: changed
+Comment: Updated composer.lock.
+
+
diff --git a/projects/plugins/backup/composer.lock b/projects/plugins/backup/composer.lock
index 28b099ca15546..cedc3c71336d5 100644
--- a/projects/plugins/backup/composer.lock
+++ b/projects/plugins/backup/composer.lock
@@ -1122,7 +1122,7 @@
             "dist": {
                 "type": "path",
                 "url": "../../packages/my-jetpack",
-                "reference": "cd2abb7246ef3cbccfdfe5ca4b68a4581f0c8586"
+                "reference": "2475331cc29709ee844d2f99340199e6e3fa0f00"
             },
             "require": {
                 "automattic/jetpack-admin-ui": "@dev",
@@ -1155,7 +1155,7 @@
                     "link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
                 },
                 "branch-alias": {
-                    "dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+                    "dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
                 },
                 "version-constants": {
                     "::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"
diff --git a/projects/plugins/boost/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/plugins/boost/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..9aa70e3ec1f75
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/plugins/boost/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Significance: patch
+Type: changed
+Comment: Updated composer.lock.
+
+
diff --git a/projects/plugins/boost/composer.lock b/projects/plugins/boost/composer.lock
index cf7ff2c63520b..bffbca3f740d7 100644
--- a/projects/plugins/boost/composer.lock
+++ b/projects/plugins/boost/composer.lock
@@ -1047,7 +1047,7 @@
             "dist": {
                 "type": "path",
                 "url": "../../packages/my-jetpack",
-                "reference": "cd2abb7246ef3cbccfdfe5ca4b68a4581f0c8586"
+                "reference": "2475331cc29709ee844d2f99340199e6e3fa0f00"
             },
             "require": {
                 "automattic/jetpack-admin-ui": "@dev",
@@ -1080,7 +1080,7 @@
                     "link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
                 },
                 "branch-alias": {
-                    "dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+                    "dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
                 },
                 "version-constants": {
                     "::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"
diff --git a/projects/plugins/jetpack/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/plugins/jetpack/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..a1c1831fa1ef7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/plugins/jetpack/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Significance: patch
+Type: other
+Comment: Updated composer.lock.
+
+
diff --git a/projects/plugins/jetpack/composer.lock b/projects/plugins/jetpack/composer.lock
index 98c60278cbe34..0d13caf1f43f3 100644
--- a/projects/plugins/jetpack/composer.lock
+++ b/projects/plugins/jetpack/composer.lock
@@ -1681,7 +1681,7 @@
 			"dist": {
 				"type": "path",
 				"url": "../../packages/my-jetpack",
-				"reference": "cd2abb7246ef3cbccfdfe5ca4b68a4581f0c8586"
+				"reference": "2475331cc29709ee844d2f99340199e6e3fa0f00"
 			},
 			"require": {
 				"automattic/jetpack-admin-ui": "@dev",
@@ -1714,7 +1714,7 @@
 					"link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
 				},
 				"branch-alias": {
-					"dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+					"dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
 				},
 				"version-constants": {
 					"::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"
diff --git a/projects/plugins/migration/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/plugins/migration/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..9aa70e3ec1f75
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/plugins/migration/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Significance: patch
+Type: changed
+Comment: Updated composer.lock.
+
+
diff --git a/projects/plugins/migration/composer.lock b/projects/plugins/migration/composer.lock
index 7f07f0ba00f90..ab518f6dbd4f4 100644
--- a/projects/plugins/migration/composer.lock
+++ b/projects/plugins/migration/composer.lock
@@ -1122,7 +1122,7 @@
             "dist": {
                 "type": "path",
                 "url": "../../packages/my-jetpack",
-                "reference": "cd2abb7246ef3cbccfdfe5ca4b68a4581f0c8586"
+                "reference": "2475331cc29709ee844d2f99340199e6e3fa0f00"
             },
             "require": {
                 "automattic/jetpack-admin-ui": "@dev",
@@ -1155,7 +1155,7 @@
                     "link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
                 },
                 "branch-alias": {
-                    "dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+                    "dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
                 },
                 "version-constants": {
                     "::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"
diff --git a/projects/plugins/protect/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/plugins/protect/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..9aa70e3ec1f75
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/plugins/protect/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Significance: patch
+Type: changed
+Comment: Updated composer.lock.
+
+
diff --git a/projects/plugins/protect/composer.lock b/projects/plugins/protect/composer.lock
index e240039c597cf..d2fa6f98db150 100644
--- a/projects/plugins/protect/composer.lock
+++ b/projects/plugins/protect/composer.lock
@@ -1035,7 +1035,7 @@
             "dist": {
                 "type": "path",
                 "url": "../../packages/my-jetpack",
-                "reference": "cd2abb7246ef3cbccfdfe5ca4b68a4581f0c8586"
+                "reference": "2475331cc29709ee844d2f99340199e6e3fa0f00"
             },
             "require": {
                 "automattic/jetpack-admin-ui": "@dev",
@@ -1068,7 +1068,7 @@
                     "link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
                 },
                 "branch-alias": {
-                    "dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+                    "dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
                 },
                 "version-constants": {
                     "::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"
diff --git a/projects/plugins/search/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/plugins/search/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..9aa70e3ec1f75
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/plugins/search/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Significance: patch
+Type: changed
+Comment: Updated composer.lock.
+
+
diff --git a/projects/plugins/search/composer.lock b/projects/plugins/search/composer.lock
index f76cdd54ac3e2..ea34f9c7b725a 100644
--- a/projects/plugins/search/composer.lock
+++ b/projects/plugins/search/composer.lock
@@ -978,7 +978,7 @@
             "dist": {
                 "type": "path",
                 "url": "../../packages/my-jetpack",
-                "reference": "cd2abb7246ef3cbccfdfe5ca4b68a4581f0c8586"
+                "reference": "2475331cc29709ee844d2f99340199e6e3fa0f00"
             },
             "require": {
                 "automattic/jetpack-admin-ui": "@dev",
@@ -1011,7 +1011,7 @@
                     "link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
                 },
                 "branch-alias": {
-                    "dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+                    "dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
                 },
                 "version-constants": {
                     "::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"
diff --git a/projects/plugins/social/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/plugins/social/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..9aa70e3ec1f75
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/plugins/social/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Significance: patch
+Type: changed
+Comment: Updated composer.lock.
+
+
diff --git a/projects/plugins/social/composer.lock b/projects/plugins/social/composer.lock
index b8e379d730928..e4a27092e697f 100644
--- a/projects/plugins/social/composer.lock
+++ b/projects/plugins/social/composer.lock
@@ -978,7 +978,7 @@
 			"dist": {
 				"type": "path",
 				"url": "../../packages/my-jetpack",
-				"reference": "cd2abb7246ef3cbccfdfe5ca4b68a4581f0c8586"
+				"reference": "2475331cc29709ee844d2f99340199e6e3fa0f00"
 			},
 			"require": {
 				"automattic/jetpack-admin-ui": "@dev",
@@ -1011,7 +1011,7 @@
 					"link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
 				},
 				"branch-alias": {
-					"dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+					"dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
 				},
 				"version-constants": {
 					"::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"
diff --git a/projects/plugins/starter-plugin/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/plugins/starter-plugin/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..9aa70e3ec1f75
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/plugins/starter-plugin/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Significance: patch
+Type: changed
+Comment: Updated composer.lock.
+
+
diff --git a/projects/plugins/starter-plugin/composer.lock b/projects/plugins/starter-plugin/composer.lock
index 50da833f0615c..357f3fd75c82c 100644
--- a/projects/plugins/starter-plugin/composer.lock
+++ b/projects/plugins/starter-plugin/composer.lock
@@ -978,7 +978,7 @@
             "dist": {
                 "type": "path",
                 "url": "../../packages/my-jetpack",
-                "reference": "cd2abb7246ef3cbccfdfe5ca4b68a4581f0c8586"
+                "reference": "2475331cc29709ee844d2f99340199e6e3fa0f00"
             },
             "require": {
                 "automattic/jetpack-admin-ui": "@dev",
@@ -1011,7 +1011,7 @@
                     "link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
                 },
                 "branch-alias": {
-                    "dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+                    "dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
                 },
                 "version-constants": {
                     "::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"
diff --git a/projects/plugins/videopress/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check b/projects/plugins/videopress/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000..9aa70e3ec1f75
--- /dev/null
+++ b/projects/plugins/videopress/changelog/add-my-jetpack-user-type-check
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+Significance: patch
+Type: changed
+Comment: Updated composer.lock.
+
+
diff --git a/projects/plugins/videopress/composer.lock b/projects/plugins/videopress/composer.lock
index 81cd1b39dd1a3..009ca3a79ebc2 100644
--- a/projects/plugins/videopress/composer.lock
+++ b/projects/plugins/videopress/composer.lock
@@ -978,7 +978,7 @@
             "dist": {
                 "type": "path",
                 "url": "../../packages/my-jetpack",
-                "reference": "cd2abb7246ef3cbccfdfe5ca4b68a4581f0c8586"
+                "reference": "2475331cc29709ee844d2f99340199e6e3fa0f00"
             },
             "require": {
                 "automattic/jetpack-admin-ui": "@dev",
@@ -1011,7 +1011,7 @@
                     "link-template": "https://github.com/Automattic/jetpack-my-jetpack/compare/${old}...${new}"
                 },
                 "branch-alias": {
-                    "dev-trunk": "4.12.x-dev"
+                    "dev-trunk": "4.13.x-dev"
                 },
                 "version-constants": {
                     "::PACKAGE_VERSION": "src/class-initializer.php"