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Results_Writeup.txt
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+----------------------------------+----------------------------+-----------+--------------+
| Testing Report for Assignment 4 | Elise Bargman and Ally R | 2/21/19 | CSC 207.02 |
+----------------------------------+----------------------------+-----------+--------------+
10 organisms: 1 cooperator, 9 defectors
---------------------------------------
Prediction: The defectors will kill off the cooperator, likely around the 5th iteration because each update,
eight out of nine of the defectors will get +2 energy, one from the cooperator, and the other from the update.
Analysis: The overall mean cooperation probability was 0.07. The defectors dominated by far, however in some
trials there was one cooperator left. This is slightly surprising, and we believe that with a higher number of
trials it would eventually be replaced.
100 organisms: 1 cooperator, 99 defectors
-----------------------------------------
Prediction: The defectors will kill off the cooperator in all trials, probably around the 9th or 10th iteration.
Most defectors will first reproduce at this time, thus likely replacing the one cooperator. Specifically, by
iteration 9, the cooperator (if still alive) will have given a total of 72 extra energy to random defectors, and
therefore many will already be at energy 10, and a few will likely have already reproduced or been replaced.
Analysis: The overall mean cooperation probability was 0.005. In half of the trials, the cooperator was killed
off, but none had more than one. We were surprised that any survived at all, but we were correct that the
defectors would continue to dominate.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 organisms: 9 cooperator, 1 defectors
---------------------------------------
Prediction: The cooperators will likely take over early on, probably by the end of the second round, because after
the first iteration alone, 72 energies will be distributed amongst the population. Therefore, the advantage that
the defector has over the cooperators will be mostly mitigated. Even if the defector reproduces first, it and its
offspring will be reset to 0, and the cooperators will likely take over again.
Analysis: The overall mean cooperation probability was 0.58. Our results for this experiment were quite variable
and surprising. Our prediction that the defector’s advantage would be mitigated was clearly disproven, since they
increased in all trials, and strongly dominated in two trials.
100 organisms: 99 cooperator, 1 defectors
-----------------------------------------
Prediction: The cooperators will almost definitely win for similar reasons as with 10 organisms. However, since
the population is much larger, energy will have a higher chance of being more evenly distributed, therefore the
chances that the defector could rise above the odds are smaller. Also, the defector makes up a proportionately
smaller amount of the population than with a population of 10.
Analysis: The overall mean cooperation probability was 0.524. This experiment was extremely variable, with
cooperators dominating nearly completely in three cases (though never fully replacing the defectors). However,
the overall mean is shows that our overall results were very close to a 50-50 split, and the rest of the trials
were all across the board.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 organisms: 3 cooperator, 3 defectors, 4 partial cooperators
--------------------------------------------------------------
Prediction: Most of the defectors and many partial cooperators will reproduce around rounds 2-4. Cooperators will
also reproduce first around round 3-4 if not replaced, and will stay behind. Therefore the cooperators will all
be replaced over time. The partial cooperators will likely not do as well as the defectors, but with a population
size of just 10 that is nearly evenly distributed, this seems that it could be relatively variable.
Analysis: The overall mean cooperation probability was 0.32. We found that the number of cooperators was one or
zero, as predicted. However, the partial cooperators seemed to do slightly better than the defectors. This was
variable, however, which disproves our prediction.
100 organisms: 33 cooperator, 33 defectors, 34 partial cooperators
------------------------------------------------------------------
Prediction: This simulation will behave similarly to its counterpart population of 10, however, because it is a
larger sample size, results will be less variable.
Analysis: The overall mean cooperation probability was 0.3275. We found that the number of cooperators was
consistently under ten, but never zero. As for the defectors and partial cooperators, neither went above 70% of
total, and results favored them equally overall. These results did support our overall hypothesis, however we were
incorrect that the results would be minimally variable.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Final Conclusion: We thought that in most cases, one population would get entirely replaced. However, we found
that our results only supported this two cases, both when the defectors started as the vast majority. However,
even in these cases, some cooperators nonetheless survived in some trials. We believe that this experiment
demonstrates the sheer complexity and variability of biological systems, even when modeled in extremely simplified
ways.